Well slap my ass and call me Sally, what a game we had in Texas last night. The Oilers just never go down without a fight, and even after a late cinching goal by the Segshow, Captain McJesus delivered to steal the first one on the road. Let’s recap that action before getting to the highly anticipated matchup tonight between Flo Rida and the Empire State of Mind.
Both teams were buzzing last night, and delivered one of the more surprising games in the Playoffs. Catch me if I’m slippin, but it seemed as if the game seemed to open up and get faster as it went on, where OT showed the kind of playstyle I expected to start the game. Usually, it goes the other way, where teams tighten up as the game goes along and it turns into somewhat of a slog in OT. Nevertheless, after a first period where we only saw 11 SOG total, the boys showed out. Special shout out to the Skinshow last night, who I just can’t seem to figure out this Playoffs. One game, he’s lookin like prime Marty Brodeur, playing the puck skillfully and mastering his positioning in the net. A couple games later …. the glass slipper falls off and it’s back to a pumpkin for Stewy. If he can keep this play up, Edmonton has a real chance at the upset, and Oil Country will be more excited than the Wolf of Wall Street boys at the prospect of tossing little people at targets.
And thank God McTopTitty finished that one in the second OT, because that chance he had in front of the net in the first OT should’ve been a goal. He pulled a nice slide-out from the front of the net after stopping the shot from the point, and seemingly had a wide open cage. I think he was trying to wait out Oettinger’s desperation save attempt to roof it once he went down, but in that time, Dallas’ stingy defence had already gotten back to disrupt the shot. That’s a spot where you need your best guys to execute if you want to be a Cup winning team, and it doesn’t get much better than the best player in the world. Lucky to get that other chance in OT, or Oil Country might’ve turned on the prodigal son just as fast as NYI did the first time Johnny T came back to play.
But, without further ado, let’s get to the picks for tonight’s game. Sticking to the Player Props after a small (yet profitable) day yesterday. And boy, we have some good ones, with some new players to shoot our shot with and trends that’ll have you convinced these are the plays to have. Let’s get to it folks.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
If you want to keep up with the cash outs I’m taking, it’s easy to toss a follow on X and keep notifications on. You don’t have to take my suggested cash outs, but they are helpful in certain situations:
Game Two: Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers, 6:30 p.m. CST
Okay Blueshirts, this is your chance to prove you have the Playoff mettle to get to a Cup. This game is going to be all about adjustments, as it was quite clear that NYR can’t continue to generate offence playing the way they did in Game One. So, what does New York have to do to get the all-important split on home ice? Well, I can give you a hint, it doesn’t involve asking Shesterkin to play any better. Yeah, the first goal was a bit of a softie from Tkachuk, but the guy stopped multiple breakways and kept them in it to the final horn. Though he may have the facial hair of a prepubescent boy, this guy is son-ing guys left and right out there like he’s running a daycare.
No, the key for NYR in this one is going to be the breakout. Specifically, focusing on how the hell they are going to slow down this Florida forecheck and get past them in the neutral zone. That’s where it all started in Game One, and it’s easy to understand why this had such a large impact on NYR’s inability to score. You set the foundation for a house before you build it, right? Well it’s the same in hockey. Everything starts with the d-zone and the breakout, enabling a team to generate speed and possession in order to rush the puck and get offensive pressure. If it breaks down in the d-zone, you ain’t getting into the o-zone clean. So while it’s obvious that NYR needs to score more, it may be more focus on the defensive zone that allows them to do this. How the turntables, right Mike?
And the good news is, NYR is gonna be aware of this with that old grizzled vet behind the bench. Lavy is a sick coach – and while he may not be one for longevity with his teams, the impact he can make in a three-to-five year window can make all the difference. There is no way this borderline HOF coach doesn’t come out with adjustments to start this game – whether that be more glass-and-outs to spring guys on the breakout, or more controlled breakouts with d-support on both sides of the net to switch the ice. The only question is: Is that even enough to beat this Florida team? My answer: I have no clue. FLA still has a potent offence and mobile defenceman on each pair to finangle their way through a tough forecheck. It seems as though they have the more complete team. But at least NYR gives themselves a chance if they can get some o-zone time and shots on net – and there’s no way Trocheck is making it through another game without getting salty with a former teammate.
My lean – NYR wins with a needed bounce back in a 3-2 game. But again, the Player Props have been treating us a lot better than the Game/Total picks, so let’s get to those.
Player Props
Pick: Barkov 3+ SOG (-110) 0.5u – I know what you’re thinking: Barkov has only hit 3+ SOG in 5/12 Playoff games. And you’re right – he isn’t the most prolific shooter on Florida. But as we look deeper into the numbers, it becomes apparent that there’s more than meets the eye with the defender of the Selke.
First – out of the 8 Playoff teams that made it to Round Two, NYR gives up the 2nd most SOG per game to opposing forwards at 22.9 SPG. We look to the first game of this series, and this held true, as NYR gave up 23 SOG to Panthers forwards.
Second – here are Barky’s results in the first two games of the previous two series:
- TBL: 2 SOG (6 Shot Attempts (SA)), 3 SOG (7 SA)
- BOS: 3 SOG (4 SA), 4 SOG (6 SA)
The first game in this series: 2 SOG on 5 SA. Do you see the trend? I may be looking too hard into this one, but it seems as though a Game Two bounce back Over this line is a lock with the way things have gone previously. And this can happen with guys – a bit of a feeling out process before getting more comfortable to attack in Game Two. Give me my boy Barky tonight, and let the dogs eat.
Pick: Tkachuk 4+ SOG (+110) 0.5u – Chucky is the second pick, and this one may look a little suspicious on its face as well. I mean, Tkachuker has only been Over this line in his last 2/5 games, and he’s missed in three straight games. One could think the guy is injured with a broken digit/banged up wrist preventing him from shooting. I haven’t seen any evidence of this, so what could be the reasoning?
Well, we’ve seen these dips in shot production before with Matty, specifically in the Playoffs, and each time he bounces back with a banger of a game. He put up 0 SOG in Game Two of the Boston Series – follows that up with games of 5 SOG and 7 SOG in the next two games. He also put up 2 SOG in Game Four of the TBL series. The two games after that? 6 and 5 SOG respectively. Now, he had 1 SOG last night – what do you expect to happen tonight? These numbers correlate with his shot attempt numbers as well, where after a 3-4 SA night, he’s always coming back with 8-10 SA. Sometimes, a guy just needs a reminder to shoot the puck, and Chucky got that reminder last game after scouring the game notes for his stats.
Pick: Lafreniere Under 2.5 SOG (-140) 0.5u
There won’t be any shaking of the laffy taffy tonight. Laf has took a step up this Playoffs, playing some good top-six hockey with the Breadman. He’s getting SOG at a high rate as well, rounding into the player NYR thought they were getting with the number one overall pick. But there’s just too many things working against him in this spot:
- First, Florida gives up the least SOG per game to Forwards out of any team that made it to the Second Round of the Playoffs (a mere 16.73 SPG). Again, this held true in Game One, as NYR only got 18 SOG from forwards, compared to 6 SOG for defenseman (for reference sake, Florida had 23 SOG from forwards and 4 SOG by defenceman).
- Second, the shot attempts and SOG totals fall after almost every performance he has over the 2.5 SOG line. There is an outlier with the consecutive 5, 5, and 3 SOG performances in the Canes series (when he was on absolute fire), but let’s check the rest:
- Canes Game Four (3 SOG, 8 SA) vs Canes Games Five and Six (2 SOG, 4 SA each time)
- Washington Game Three (5 SOG, 6 SA) vs Washington Game Four (0 SOG, 0 SA) and Canes Game One (2 SOG, 3 SA)
- Reg Season Last Game OTT (5 SOG, 5 SA) vs Washington Games One (2 SOG, 5 SA), and Two (0 SOG, 2 SA)
Are you starting to get the picture? Well, guess how many SOG he had in Game One of this series? That’s right, 3 SOG with 6 SA. Regression is coming, and we figured out where. Let’s ride it to the bank.
But that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game Two: Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers, 6:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Barkov 3+ SOG (-110) 0.5u
Pick: Tkachuk 4+ SOG (+110) 0.5u
Pick: Lafreniere Under 2.5 SOG (-140) 0.5u