Well, well, well, those damn Rangers and Panthers put on one hell of a close, grinding matchup in the first game to start the Conference Finals – something we really hadn’t previously seen from these teams, save for the last two games of the Boston series with Florida. The expected goal shares for each team were still high, but the goaltending and the bounces made for a nail-biter with another “Three Blind Mice” routine from the refs with the goaltender interference call-back.
Before we get to the picks today, let’s take a look back at that action. Bob vs Shesty …. the Russian Special did not disappoint in this one, with both guys guarding their net like the last cookie in the jar. While there may not have been the highlight reel saves with these two last night, Shesty did shut the door on two breakaways, and Bob held strong when the Rangers made their push in the third. They also got a lot of love from their best friends, the goalposts. I swear there were at least 6 post/crossbars hit throughout the game. Next time, these boys would be smart to take a page from the Flower’s book and start showing some love back to those red, parallel pieces of steel.
But on to the players not in the cage. Man, were the top guys for NYR invisible. Watching the game, I swear I didn’t hear Panarin’s name called until the second period. Zib, Laf, Kreids …. where your ass at boys? It basically all started with the NYR defensive zone in my eyes – Florida’s forecheck and neutral zone positioning prevented the Rangers from getting down the ice clean, leading to way less offence off the rush and dump-ins aplenty. The Tkachuk goal may have been a bit of a softie, but there’s no excuse for getting shutout at home. Let’s see how big the cajones are for the Concrete Jungle boys in game two – will it be a bounce back, or a shit-kicking we haven’t seen since the likes of Slovakia Women’s Hockey vs Bulgaria Women’s Hockey in the 2010 Olympic Qualifiers (I still find it hilarious that the big HC for Bulgaria pulled the goalie at the end of the game):
Nevertheless, let’s get on to the action tonight. We’re switching to Player Props only in this article – records have been much better than Game/Total picks. I’ll still lay out where I’m leaning tonight, but the Props are the only bets I advise. The data is good tonight, let’s feast.
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Game: Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars, 6:30 p.m. CST
Well, it doesn’t get any better than this matchup in the West. We get this year’s iteration of which style wins out in the Playoffs – Defence vs Offence. While the past would indicate that the defensive team should have a large advantage, there are always exceptions to the rule, as we saw with the Avs winning a Cup on the back of average goaltending only a few short years ago. Congrats to Kuemper for getting an A on the group project without showing up to class.
The high-flying Oilers. As a Canadian, there’s no way I’m not cheering for this Edmonton squad. The weaknesses that have always been apparent in Oil Country are still there – lack of secondary scoring, shit goaltending, and weak defence. Doesn’t seem to matter though – everyone just has to grab on the McDraisaitl coattails and they win more than they lose. Loving my boy Bouchard too, firing piss-missile after piss-missile from the blue-line. When I see him shoot, I think of Randy Johnson pitching. The velocity he generates on his clapper is undeniable – I just hope there aren’t any unsuspecting birds making their way into the arena tonight.
And I’ll tell you what – I really think they have a good chance at beating the Stars tonight. That last series against Vancouver showed us why this might be the case – Edmonton just plays better at the start of series, which makes sense due to the rest that McJesus and Drai get after being ridden like horses through the series. They’re at their freshest and healthiest in Game One, and that’s a huge advantage considering the path to winning this thing goes through those two. Meanwhile … the Stars have started both series slowly. They lost the first two to VGK in Round One, and they let Colorado come back from a three-goal deficit in Game One of Round Two to steal one on the road. This team embodies my favourite meme on the internet, looking like they’re left for dead at first before turning the tables and shoving a Texas-size 10-4 up the opposition’s hoop. Call an ambulance …. but not for me, bitches.
I see an EDM win and the Over hitting, but I’ve been wrong before. So let’s get to the Player Props, with a little more data to back up the picks.
Player Props
Pick: Bouchard 3+ SOG (-160) 1u – Bouchard is my most confident pick of the night – and for good reason. Not the most sterling hit rate, going 3/5 to the Over in his last five games and 6/10 in his last ten. However, the key is this: the 4 games to start the Vancouver series, he was 4/4 to the Over; the first 3 games of the LAK series, he was 3/3 to the Over. That’s 100% hit rate for this line in the first 3 games of each series. Boy likes to start the series’ off with a bang.
But let’s not stop there – let’s get to the real, juicy stat that supports this one. Dallas is great at limiting shots to opposing forwards, ranking second best out of the eight teams in Round Two at forward shot prevention (17.92 SPG). But ….. and this is a huge but …. they rank dead-last in preventing SOG to defencemen this Playoffs, giving up a gaudy 9.54 SPG on average. There isn’t even an excuse that these numbers are skewed – Dallas already played teams with good forward groups in VGK and Colorado. So come on Bobby Boucher Bouchard, you can do it!!!!!!!!!
Pick: Kane Under 2.5 SOG (-150) 0.5u – You saw that part above where Dallas ranks second-best in shot prevention to opposing forwards right? Well, Kane is the only forward on Edmonton I feel comfortable betting on the Under SOG total – but the case is easy to make (well, at least it’s easier to make than the case against Kaner for gambling, but we’ll save that for another time).
Evander hit Over this line in his last two games of the Canucks series – props to him (no pun intended). But let’s look at how he started that series: 1, 0, 1, and 1 SOG in the first four games. That’s …. not good. He had a ton of shots in the LAK series – to be expected against a team that was outmatched and known for allowing shots at a high rate. But the key is the shot attempts. 5, 8, 5, 4, 4, 8, 3, 3, 2 – just a recent sample of his last nine games. As I had said in my article yesterday, considering only 50% (max) of shot attempts on average get through, he’s not even giving himself a chance to hit 3 SOG most of the time. Let’s play the trends baby.
Pick: Heiskanen Under 2.5 SOG (-140) 0.5u – For as open and fast as Edmonton plays, they sure don’t let up a lot of shots. Granted, they did play the Canucks over seven games, a team that gets sick at the thought of a game with over 30 SOG. It skews things forsure, but we can still see that Edmonton does a much better job of preventing SOG from defensemen than forwards.
Edmonton was middle of the pack at preventing forwards from getting shots (4th out of the 8 teams in the second round, allowing 19.27 SOG). However, they put up a wall in front of defenseman, allowing a mere 5.91 SPG, good for 2nd out of the 8 (and a whole 1.5 SPG lower than 3rd place). I don’t know what it is – shot-blocks, high zone pressure, voodoo magic – maybe a combination of the three. I know one thing forsure – Trump would be so devastated if he heard that Canada built a wall before he did.
Meanwhile, Heiskanen is anything but consistent with his shot totals. Against Colorado, his hit rate to this Under was 2/6. Against VGK, 3/7. But consider this: Colorado let up a full 2 SOG more to defenseman than EDM through the Playoffs. VGK? Gave up more than 2 SOG extra to defenseman than EDM over the Regular Season and Playoffs. The Stars d-men haven’t had shooting lanes blocked like this yet in the Playoffs, and it will be to Heiskanen’s detriment, at least in the SOG department.
Pick: Skinner Under 24.5 Saves (-110) 0.25u
Oh, poor Skinshow. So happy he was able to bounce back against the Nucks after a tumultuous series (to say the least). This one’s pretty easy – you just have to look at the Playoffs so far.
Against Vancouver, Skinner never had more than 24 saves. 100% hit rate. I mean, that’s a given though, right? The Couv hates shots on net. Looking back to the LAK series – he was hit or miss at this line, which makes sense considering LAK was a top five team in shot generation during the Regular Season (Shoutout PLD, hardest worker in the League).
Dallas … are not the LA Kings in terms of shot generation. Look back to the series with Colorado, where they faced off against a questionable defensive team (just like the Oilers). In those games, here’s Georgiev’s save totals in Regulation Time: 22, 23, 29, 19, 27, 19. So, a hit rate of 4/6 to the Under, including the first game of the series. That’s not even accounting for the fact that Skinner can shut-down in a game, where the snowball effect starts and the mistakes compound, turning the game into a disaster. Smallest bet unit wise, but still a lot of upside.
But that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game: Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars, 6:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Bouchard 3+ SOG (-160) 1u
Pick: Kane Under 2.5 SOG (-150) 0.5u
Pick: Heiskanen Under 2.5 SOG (-140) 0.5u
Pick: Skinner Under 24.5 Saves (-110) 0.25u