WE ARE BACK ladies and gents. The Second Round of the NHL Playoffs have wrapped up, and we are set for Conference Final action to begin tonight between the Panthers and Rangers. What a Playoffs it’s been so far, and if you’re looking for an entertaining recap on the previous series, go ahead and check out my free article with Futures Bets for Round Three.
Instead of rehashing all of that, let’s just take a quick run through the paths these two teams took to lead them to this point.
Starting with the Rangers, man they blew the doors off Washington in Round One. Everyone was saying the Caps shouldn’t even be in the Playoffs; and they were right. The defence was shaky, the offence was nowhere to be seen, and the team left Lindgren out to dry like they were doing some old-school laundry in the country (remember the clothes pins). It was a tough scene, and the Caps were honestly lucky to even make one game close in that one. Meanwhile, you had the Ranger’s stars looking as they should, with Panarin’s line crushing it and good secondary play from Kreider and Zib. The Trouba train was running at full force on the defensive end, and Shesty could have pulled a Pete Lafleur every game while still pulling out enough saves for the win.
Then, the Rangers got an actual NHL-Playoff level matchup with the Canes in Round Two. And to the surprise of everyone, they kept sneaking out games. Three one-goal games, including two that went to OT, and NYR won every one. I talked about this in my Futures article, but NYR has one of the craziest win rates in one-goal games. Clutch factor, engaged. It must have something to do with being able to guard a lead with the best goaltender in the world, maybe? But regardless, the Canes pushed back in the series, taking two games in a row before resting on a two goal lead in game six. Then, as I also touched on in the Futures article – Chris Kreider achieved legend status. Natty hatty, not a big deal. Most clutch Playoff performance in my memory- put his GWG in the Louvre.
Now, moving on to the Rats in Florida. What was projected to be a tough Round One matchup with the Bolts was anything but. The Panthers blew the doors off TBL with a combination of devastating offence and big saves. The top two lines brought a one-two punch that would even have Mike Tyson hitting a double-take, and the defence for Florida can fly around the ice like Biz when he got his second, and last, shift of the game at the end of the second period. The energy is limitless. That’s not even mentioning Bob, who has gotta have some extra juice in this series being challenged for National Supremacy by the young Ruski Igor. It is a nice change for Russia to actually have a battle between countrymates instead of with another country, assholes. In any event, at least the Russians are preparing the young lads for NHL Hockey with some lovely cage-rage practice.
But back to the Panther’s journey to the Cup, where they met with the greasy Bruins in Round Two. I don’t know a soul on earth who had Boston getting past Florida, and it went just as everyone expected. Swayman and McAvoy can only do so much guys; the rest of Boston seemed to just be hitching a ride with them, hoping a couple low-scoring games could go their way. That ain’t it boss. Bob continued his magic, the Panther’s d-men joined in the rush constantly, and Barkov was the MVP of the series with 8 points in 6 games. Right after Barky got the Selke for the umpteenth time now, with at least several more to come. What a stud this guy is, shoutout to everyone’s favourite lifeguard.
Alright folks, now that we have that out of the way, we move to the picks tonight. I really went deep with the stats on this one, and we have learned a ton of lessons from previous articles to help us with this one. So without further ado, let’s rock people.
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Game: Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers, 6:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-115) 1u
I’m avoiding game picks for the first one in this series, as I like to get some kind of read on the game before shooting those shots. But the Over is looking prime in this one, especially because the books are giving us the 5.5 line instead of 6.5. Let’s get into why.
Starting with the Rangers. While they were playing the lowly Caps in Round One, they hit Over 5.5 in 3/4 games. They scored 4, 4, 3, and 4 goals in the four games of that series. Definitely doing their job for the Over. Then, they moved on to the Canes. Again, the Over 5.5 hit more than 50% in that series (66% at 4/6). And NYR only scored less than 3 goals in one of those six games. You can definitely make the case that Florida is better defensively/in net compared to the Canes (Florida is easily better than the Caps in those two areas). But the point still stands – the Rangers have been over 3 goals 9/10 games this Playoffs. They score as much as Beavis and Butthead; that’s just a given.
So how about Florida then? Well, they play some of the most fast, open hockey in the Playoffs. You see these guys play? The scoring chances rack up like a 22-year-old gold digger’s credit card charges. They just keep coming, and coming, and coming – Bob interrupts with a beauty save – and they keep coming. Tampa is more comparable to NYR in my mind than Boston is (great goaltenders for TBL and NYR, pretty good d-cores, both teams play open, fast hockey), and the Over 5.5 was 3/5 in that series, with the first two games narrowly missing the mark at 5 goals total. Nonetheless, it was Florida doing all the heavy lifting in that series for the Over, with 3, 3, 5, 3, and 6 goals. Even against the low-scoring Boston squad, they still went 3-3 with an Over 5.5 line, and they put up six goals two separate times in that series. Marchand cried real tears watching this offence go to work.
Bottom line:
- Over 5.5 Goals Playoff Record (for both the teams so far): 13-8
- Average Goals Per Game: NYR (3.5) and FLA (3.54)
They’ll move this line to 6.5 soon enough, so let’s get on it before they do.
Pick: Kreider Under 2.5 SOG (-120) 0.25u
I know I was just singing Kreidshow’s praises for his game seven heroics, but the guy doesn’t really shoot the puck (save for that outlier performance). Even with that game considered, Kreids is under this line in 6 of his last 10 games. He is also 2-0 to this Under in the first game of the series. The shot attempts are what really gets me. Other than the last game, his attempts are: 4, 6, 3, 8, 3, 5, 4, 2, and 3. Considering that approximately 50% (if not more) of the shot attempts don’t hit the net on average – he’s not even giving himself a chance to hit this line.
Oh yea, did I forget to mention that Florida is giving up the least amount of SOG to forwards this Playoffs (only 16.73 SOG allowed to forwards per game). You can make the case that this figure is skewed due to the porous offence of Boston, but remember, they played a good offensive team in TBL in the first round, and their separation from second place (a full SOG better than Dallas) indicates that they’ve done this consistently, no matter the team.
Pick: Zibanejad Under 2.5 SOG (-130) 0.25u
This pick is in the same vein as the Kreids pick. Zib is another non-shooter who you think would be firing pucks on net. For anybody telling you this guy is shooting the rubber at a high rate … the lie detector test determined that was a ….. lie! You are not the father Zib.
Seriously though, he’s worse than Kreider with a 7/10 Under hit rate at this line in the Playoffs. In 7 of those 10 games, here were his shot attempts: 3, 1, 3, 4, 4, 2, and 2. That’s dogshit. You have third-pairing defenseman getting more shot-attempts than that. And fair enough, the Persian Prince has transitioned to being a passer a majority of the time. So why not take his Under on shots – I see a lot of stock being put into the name, and not much being put into the recent history/analytics.
Pick: Ekblad 2+ SOG (-120) 0.25u
Fun fact – Ekblad might actually be healthy. He clearly wasn’t a full-go in the TBL series, only registering a grand total of 6 SOG in 5 games. Then, he was just getting his feet wet in game one of the Bruins series where Florida lost by a surprising 5 goals. Tough to get offence off in that one.
Since then? 100% Over hit rate at this line – including 5, 5, 6, and 6 shot attempts in those games. Now, this was against Boston, who gives up an average of 7.62 SOG to defencemen. Wanna know how many SOG NYR gives up to defencemen on average? 9.50 SOG (skewed up by the Canes, but down by the Caps). That’s almost a two-full SOG difference. If Ekblad was already hammering this line against Boston, there’s little doubt he’ll be able to get em’ through against New York. Get ready to face the rubber Shesty.
Pick: Reinhart 4+ SOG (+125) 0.25u
Ah yes, we get back to ol’ reliable with this one. If you’re taking a SOG prop over 4+ SOG, this is your man. Only a 6/11 Over hit rate in the Playoffs so far, but Reinhart is consistently close to the 4+ line with 4 of those other 11 games ending with 3 SOG. Consistent, consistent, consistent. Now, NYR is giving up 22.90 SOG per game to forwards, just below Boston’s Playoff-worst 24.46. But the key here: 2/2 Over hit rate in game ones through the Playoffs (5 and 6 SOG respectively). Sammy boy comes to play in game one of a series, he’s consistent in generating shots (7.72 shot attempts per game), and he’s got the first line PP minutes with a set-up guy like Barkov as his Center. Let’s hit it.
But that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game: Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers, 6:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-115) 1u
Pick: Kreider Under 2.5 SOG (-120) 0.25u
Pick: Zibanejad Under 2.5 SOG (-130) 0.25u
Pick: Ekblad 2+ SOG (-120) 0.25u
Pick: Reinhart 4+ SOG (+125) 0.25u