We’re getting to the end of Round Two people, and the Conference Finals are starting to take shape. But before we get there, we have a few series that are on the brink, and a couple that are just getting going. Let’s recap the action last night before getting to tonight.
First, we head to Madison Square Garden, where everything went just as expected – Carolina won to get this series back to Raleigh. People didn’t really think this series was going to be over in five games did they? Carolina is just way too good, and way too battle tested in the Playoffs with a shit-ton of experience. This was the second most dominant game I’ve seen in the Second Round, right next to that Florida slaughter-job on Boston in game four. It’s starting to become clear that there is a disparity at five-on-five play, and NYR’s special teams are starting to cool off after a blazing start to the series. As good as Shesty is playing right now, I still don’t know if a vintage Igor performance prevents this one from going seven games. We will see, but one thing’s forsure – if Carolina is going to continue to have this depth scoring (all four goals last night did not have Aho or Svechnikov involved), the Rangers are going to be down bad, almost as bad as White Goodman after the biggest sporting upset in recent memory.
Then, we go back to the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, where the Avalanche is starting, and all of the Avs players are getting trapped under the snow, left for dead.
You don’t have Nichushkin and Toews, two of the best players on the squad – it’s going to be tough to win. But it was really the way in which they lost these players that had them as deflated as a Tom Brady football to start this game. First, Devon Toews takes the morning skate and seems good to go for the game. Then, an hour or so prior to the game, he calls it with an illness. On top of that, about an hour before the game, the Avs are informed that Nichushkin violated Stage 3 of the Player Assistance Program and will be suspended for six months. I mean, that’s a double gut punch to the boys if I’ve ever seen one. And you can clearly see the impact it had on the room (specifically Val’s decision to get back on the nosebeers after leaving his teammates out to dry last playoffs with a similar bad decision) with the quote from Jack Johnson after the game:
On one hand, everyone should be very supportive of Val and hope that he gets the treatment he needs to get these demons out of his system, as it’s clear he had mental health problems. On the other hand, Val still made a choice that he knew would let his brothers down, brothers who would give basically anything for the team and for Val to get individual and team success. It’s a tricky thing and a tough situation, but the comments from the team really say it all. Dallas in five.
But on to tonight. I’ve included some player props in this article because of the circumstances of tonight: it’s a pure hedge night for me on the game picks. THEREFORE, IF YOU DO NOT HAVE MY FUTURES BETS IN FOR THIS ROUND, I WOULD SUGGEST JUST TAKING THE PLAYER PROPS. While the lines are very juicy for the underdogs tonight (Van and Boston), I still feel as though the favourites will pull it out. But with big futures bets on Edmonton and Florida to win the series, I’m covering myself (covering myself a lot more in the Vancouver series, as they’re starting to look like a more complete team than Edmonton). But without further ado, let’s get to the picks.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
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Game: Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers, 5:00 p.m. CST
(Hedge) Pick: Boston Bruins Moneyline (+180) 0.5u
Pick: Tkachuk 4+ SOG (-130) 0.25u – 4/5 in his last five games hitting this line, and 3/4 in the Boston series (with 17 SOG in four games). First line PP minutes and the trigger man, we ride.
Pick: Reinart 4+ SOG (+120) 0.25u – 6/7 in his last seven games hitting over this line, and he had 3 SOG the only time he missed the line. The most consistent shot-getter on Florida, he’s a lock.
Okay, okay, let me try to make the case for Boston here. It’s tough, but I need some hope of cashing this bet while still getting my futures in. It’s really going to come down to two things for the B’s if they want to pull this one out – (i) some more Brodeur-esqe play from Swayman and (ii) desperation for more hockey. Those two things can definitely be enough to win a game in the Playoffs, it’s just difficult when a team is so overmatched as the B’s are in this one. That’s especially the case without their captain, who I’m sure is throwing darts at a picture of Sam Bennett’s head while sipping through a straw due to the broken jaw.
And sure, Florida absolutely gave it to Tampa in the closeout game five in the first round. But Boston is built differently. Their defensive game is still solid. While the forwards are sub-par other than Pasta, they are opportunistic and can finish high-danger chances at a good rate. The penalty kill for Boston has been good (save for game three) holding Boston scoreless on 17 PP opportunities throughout the regular season and playoffs. I believe Boston can get one more win in this series, and if not – my 7.5u futures bets on Florida cash and I’m a happy camper.
Game: Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers, 7:30 p.m. CST
(Hedge) Pick: Vancouver Canucks Moneyline (+170) 1u
Pick: Draisaitl 4+ SOG (+110) 0.25u – Easy pick for big boy Drai here. If nothing else, expect the Oiler’s big boys to show up tonight. 5, 4, 3, 6, 2, 4 and 8 SOG in his last seven games (5/7 hit rate), and 2/3 hit rate in this series while narrowly missing the 100% hit rate (by one shot in game one). Expect at least three one-tees on the PP for him.
Pick: McDavid 4+ SOG (-115) 0.25u – McDavid has to push the envelope to even things up, and his TOI is absurd. Hit over this line in his last two games in this series and he’s gotta get the puck on net tonight. Let’s go.
It’s much easier to make a case for Vancouver winning than it is for Boston. And it’s clear why: Vancouver is playing like the overall better team. I’m not saying Boeser and Miller are comparable to McDavid and Drai, but the other pieces on Van are a lot better than the supporting cast of Edmonton. That makes a difference in the playoffs; just ask Colorado. Lindholm has been on fire for the Nasty Nucks, proving himself to be the most impactful deadline addition (along with Guentzel to Carolina). I mean, those two goals in game three were clutch, and my boy Zadorov is still treating the Oiler’s like his illegitimate children – absolutely son-ing them.
The series has been uber-close, no doubt about it. It could be 3-0 either way right now. But the difference is the goaltending, where Silovs is the most recent iteration of Luongo in Van City. Skinner … is having some issues, refusing to talk to the media after game three because he felt that the loss was primarily his fault. The accountability is good, but that ain’t good to hear from a confidence perspective headed into a game that may decide your playoff lives. I wouldn’t be surprised with another heavy advantage for the Canucks in the most important area of the game tonight.
But that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game: Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers, 5:00 p.m. CST
(Hedge) Pick: Boston Bruins Moneyline (+180) 0.5u
Pick: Tkachuk 4+ SOG (-130) 0.25u
Pick: Reinart 4+ SOG (+120) 0.25u
Game: Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers, 7:30 p.m. CST
(Hedge) Pick: Vancouver Canucks Moneyline (+170) 1u
Pick: Draisaitl 4+ SOG (+110) 0.25u
Pick: McDavid 4+ SOG (-115) 0.25u