Another night of NHL Stanley Cup Playoff hockey, another night where we get the privilege of watching the best in the world go for each others’ throats. I wish this shit never had to end, but the excitement only ramps up the farther we get into the tournament. Let’s take a look back to the action last night before getting into the for today.
The Panther’s got it done against Boston in a game that looked close on paper, but was anything but close if you watched the game. Florida took it to em’, doubling up Boston in SOG and dominating zone time while racking up high-danger chances. Boys were buzzzzzzing last night. Again, that freak Swayman is the only reason this game was really close, in addition to a dismal powerplay performance from the Rat Kings. If they can figure out that powerplay …. watch out next game, it could be a blowout (in more ways than one).
Stick taps gotta go out to Sam Bennett though. The greasiest player in hockey right now, he’s the ultimate definition of “guy you hate playing against but would love to have on your team”. Every Bruin had him on their “kill list”, and he answered by launching hit after hit, imposing his will on B’s players constantly, with a goal after a slick cross-check to give himself space. His right hook to Marchand’s jaw in the game three collision was reminiscent of the Connor McGregor hook on Aldo all those years ago. As a defenceman myself who used to get wallpapered by forwards flying into the zone, I can’t help but be on this dirty rat’s side with that slick counter.
But on to Oiltown, where Edmonton just can’t seem to get anything going past their top six forwards and top four defenseman. Credit to Vancouver – they’re actually playing a team game with buy-in from every player, and that’s what’s making the difference so far in the series. Vancouver had its struggles in Round One, but the fact of the matter is that they may play better against a team like Edmonton (high flying offence, not as deep, bad defensive zone play) than Nashville (hard nosed, deeper, better goaltending and defence). I had a bad read on this series, but it just goes to show that you can keep learning in this game. Styles and matchups make series, not previous results. It’s possible that I’m done betting Edmonton Moneyline in this series – but the Over continues to look prime in this matchup.
But without further ado, on to tonight. Keeping it simple tonight with two game picks, but the analysis is too sound to pass up on these plays. Sometimes, you have to put your hope in the data and how the games have played out to this point (in my eyes at least), and make a call from there. Let’s go people.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
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Game: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline (-115) 1u
The squarest play on my board tonight, this series just looks way too close for me to have NYR winning in five games. Six games …. maybe. But that’s why tonight is such a prime spot. While Carolina has to go back on the road for this one, you know how the saying goes – game five was a seed of hope for the Canes, and a seed of doubt for the Rangers. I’m thinking these seeds are going to continue growing tonight.
Let’s start with the data. The series has clearly been closer than the end results have indicated. I like to use MoneyPucks’ deserve-to-win meter when I’m looking at past games in the series to see how we got to where we are. And boy oh boy, Carolina has the Blueshirts beat on the analytics. Carolina had a 56.7% chance to win game one and a 66.2% chance to win game three. Both games that they lost. And while this obviously happens in hockey, where everything is very unpredictable, the aggregate has the Canes winning a majority of the time. So in reality, the series is more likely to be 3-1 Canes than 3-1 NYR. The fear tonight is that NYR is better at home, with both games in Madison Square Garden being much closer than the games in Carolina. But the desperation factor is real, and there are two aspects of the game that NYR has to perfect to pull out this dub – line matching perfectly and Igor playing even more out of his mind than he already is. It’s very possible these things happen, but not probable – that’s why I lean Canes.
But past the boring numbers, let’s get into why this one is Carolina’s to lose. They just came off a disappointing loss in the Conference Finals last year. They’ve been near the top of the playoff race in the last three years. They consistently out-shoot and out-chance opponents. They have one of the deepest groups in the league on offence and defence, with a recent injection of goal scoring form the one and only Guentzy. Freaky Freddy in the cage for Carolina has been …. so-so. That tying goal he let past him in game four was unacceptable – but in an overall sense, this guy can win you games in the playoffs. Let’s just have at least one more game of Freddy haunting Ranger nightmares and Svechnikov firing piss-missiles by Igor’s ears.
Game: Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche, 7:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline (-135) 1u
You guys saw that game three in Colorado right? And when you finished watching the game, what was your reaction? If you didn’t come away with the feeling that Colorado outplayed and outchanced Dallas – I don’t know what you were watching.
Sure, a 4-1 loss can look bad when you are an offensive powerhouse. But three things happened in game three to make this possible: amazing goaltending by Oettinger (which hasn’t always been the case these playoffs), amazing defensive positioning and buy-in from Dallas (easier to do with a lead, which they had the whole game), and bad puck-luck for Colorado (will regress to the mean). So you take all of that into account – and Dallas still only won by the length of their foreskin with two empty netters to finish things off. I don’t know, I’m feeling a turntable situation coming tonight.
Dallas is still a very good team – as was evidenced by their grit and determination to pull out that VGK series. I just don’t expect them to get that same perfect gamescript that they had in game three to hold the Avs offence to such minimal production. The Stars obviously like to keep these games close and low-scoring – but how can you do that in two games in a row when Makar is buzzing a wrister that whistles right by you with the Natedog and big-boy Nichushkin crashing the cage? I absolutely love this play tonight (almost as much as Joanie loves Chauchie).
But that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline (-115) 1u
Game: Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche, 7:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline (-135) 1u