As Jim Harbaugh would say, “Who has it better than us?!” Another two-game slate of NHL Playoff hockey tonight after a deadly duo of matchups last night. The stakes get higher every night, and we have a nice little betting card set to take advantage.
But back to last night’s action, where we had a prime bounce-back opportunity for the Corsi Canes at home after losing the first two on the road to the Blueshirts. And they did bounce back, as was evidenced by the incredulous 38 shots-on-goal through two periods. Seeing that figure pop up on my screen in the second intermission had me more confused than Floyd Mayweather trying to read a children’s book. Just flabbergasted.
But regardless of how much rubber was finding its way on net, the Canes just never seemed to be in control of the game. The counter attack from New York was filthy, and Shesty remains the King of Cage with his performances thus far in the ploffs. Don’t get me wrong, I still thought the Canes deserved to win the game. But with how it looked on paper, it would seem as though they dominated. Not the case, and although I’ll still hammer the Canes in the elimination game four at home, my confidence has cooled about as much as a rich families’ home after the AC finally gets turned on for the year.
Then, the Mona Lisa of the second round, Avs vs Stars. What a deadly matchup this is, and the first two games have delivered.
But really, what more could anyone ask for? Two straight games of Dallas getting a huge lead early only for the Avs to storm back late and get Stars fans’ panties in a bunch. A split in Texas, this series is almost definitely going seven games. Then again, we all saw what happened after Colorado split the series on the road in the first two games of Avs vs Jets in the first round. Avs are military-grade weapons at home (best record in NHL on home ice), so look out Dallas.
Before we move on, let’s just take a second to give some stick taps to Jamie Benn. That hit on Toews last night was a work of art, and I’m so glad there wasn’t a penalty called. THAT is Playoff hockey.
We see way too many pre-junior leagues in Canada nowadays with teenagers who’ll get a hit-to-the-head penalty called on them when a little numbskull carries the puck across the middle with his head down. That isn’t teaching the kids to keep their heads on a swivel, and that’s when you get killed in the higher levels of hockey as you get older. Just ask Toews.
But let’s get back to the action tonight. We have two game picks, along with two total picks on the slate. We’re continuing to keep things simple – I think Edmonton and Florida win their series, so I continue to bet them at (close to) even-money lines. There are also some interesting trends to track regarding the totals, and I have all that analysis here for you. So, let’s make some money degens.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
If you want to keep up with the cash outs I’m taking, it’s easy to toss a follow on X and keep notifications on. You don’t have to take my suggested cash outs, but they are helpful in certain situations:
Game: Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Florida Panthers Moneyline (-130) 1u
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (-120) 0.5u
After a nice little series split in the Sunshine State, we head back to the Masshole State to get some dirty hockey underway. And man oh man, do we have that grit and toughness aplenty in this series.
If you’ve watched even five minutes out of the first two games that have taken place, you know one thing: tensions are high. I mean, I’m talking “Tom Brady almost pulling a Will Smith at his Roast after Jeff Ross brought up Kraft’s tuggies” level tension.
And there were two straight blowouts to show for this escalating tension, first a 6-1 W for Boston, then a 6-1 answer from the Panthers. The fact of the matter is – Florida is still the much better, much deeper team, and the goaltending edge is starting to soften after Swayman showed he is not a robot manufactured in a shot-saving lab. The true nature of this series is somewhere in between these two results, where I’m expecting a closer game and a Panthers dub. Let me tell you why.
Boston beat the Leafs in seven games. The Leafs have a strong offence, mediocre defence (at best), and bad goaltending. Boston has trouble beating the Leafs due to a lack of offence and scoring. Florida has the Leafs matched on offence, has a much better defensive core, and the goaltending is miles ahead. So how is it that Florida loses 4/7 games against this Boston team? I just can’t foresee it, and the way we make money in this game is through consistency. If you consistently bet Florida to win at near pick’em’ prices, and you believe (like I do) that this series could be theirs in six games – bet every game! And you will make money. So let’s keep ridin’ em here.
The Under pick here isn’t much more complex than the game pick. While Florida was consistently Over this line against Tampa in the first round, Tampa has much better offence than Boston, while the goaltending is still comparable between Vasilevskiy and Swayman. Meanwhile, Boston hit Under this line in 5/7 games in the Toronto series (3/4 at home), and Toronto is comparable offensively to Florida. This all adds up to an Under, regardless of both games going Over to start this series.
Game: Edmonton Oilers vs Vancouver Canucks, 8:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (-125) 1u
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-120) 0.5u
C’mon now Edmonton; it’s time to sack up and show what the last few years of Playoff disappointments have taught you. I’m betting on the vast Playoff experience Edmonton possesses to get them through this one in a prime bounce-back spot. I’m not making any guarantees here (as we can see from the failed prime bounce-back Canes spot last night), but my hard earned money sure as hell ain’t going on a Canucks team that lacks Playoff experience and a starting-calibre goalie. Take off the glass slipper Van City.
But let’s get to the reality of the situation, as we did with Florida vs Boston: Edmonton is the better squad. Sure, you could make the case that even a third-string like Silovs is playing better than Skinshow, but the Edmonton defence is still a solid unit, and the offence is just lightyears ahead of every other offence in the NHL (well, them and Colorado). Vancouver has a solid squad, but as I’ve said before, the top end talent just isn’t playoff tested. You’re two best players in the regular season look like Beavis and Butthead – just way too frail/lacking strength/lacking grit to be as effective in the playoffs (in fact, I’d say that Beav has a lot more grit than either of these guys with his relentless pursuit of the teepee for his bunghole).
And I hear the concerns from Edmonton fans: Drai is banged up, McDavid was held without a shot for the first time in a playoff game in game one, and Skinner looks like he’d let in a beach ball right now. But you’re telling me that this team is going to back down to the lowly Canucks after that absolute embarrassment in the game one letdown? They aren’t built like that in my eyes, and I expect a split in the series after game two.
The Over pick is pretty easy, considering the Oilers have gone 6/7 with this Over line in the Playoffs so far. While the Canucks were more of an Under team when it came to this Over/Under line in the first round against Nashville, they never had to play a competent offence in that series, and when Van was at home they scored at a higher rate. Let’s gooooooooooooooooo.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game: Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Florida Panthers Moneyline (-130) 1u
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (-120) 0.5u
Game: Edmonton Oilers vs Vancouver Canucks, 8:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (-125) 1u
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-120) 0.5u