Holy sweet baby Jesus, the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs have absolutely delivered despite the fact that we have 7 out of the 8 series at either 3-1 or 4-0. Winnipeg just doesn’t look like it has the offensive firepower to hang with Colorado after another bully beatdown (a common story for the Jets since their inception). I envisioned Helle and that defence playing a lot better in the series, but Colorado is just a load on the frontend. Then you had one of the most ridiculous comebacks in recent memory with the lowly Canucks stealing one from the Predators like a teenage kid taking a fiver off their parents’ nightstand. I can’t fathom how Sissons feels after the miss on that open net, and if I was a Preds fan, this is beginning to feel like the end of a great opportunity to move to round two. That’s all despite the fact that the Canucks are avoiding shots-on-goal like toddlers do their vegetables. The Rangers put a bow on the most mismatched series of round one, treating the Capitals like their playthings in four dominant games. Get ready Blueshirts, because the Hurricanes are going to be like the big brother of the Caps, ready to beat you down at recess on the schoolyard in round two. To cap off the night, Oiltown kept rolling with the most surprising score of the playoffs at 1-0. Outshot 33-13, the boys should be buying more than a few rounds for Skinner after stealing that one.
Getting on to the plays for tonight, I’m switching things up a bit. I’ll still preview the game with some of my (slightly) funny analysis, but we’re going to be sticking with purely player props tonight. The straight game and total picks are tough with the added unpredictability of the playoffs, and we want to get back in the green so we can smash some more futures for round two. Lots of shots-on-goal for my slate tonight, and let’s mix in a lotto same-game-parlay for some added upside. Hit the lights baby!
*Units for me will be $100 bets. Bet responsibly.
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Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers, 5:00 p.m. CST
The Rat Kings have an opportunity to close this series out at home in a pivotal game five matchup, and I have a feeling they get it done. Before that goal explosion from the Bolts last game, the Florida defence held up very well, with Ekblad rounding into form, Montour continuing to crush it, and Forsling providing that steady-eddy presence. Bobrosky has been a solid mainstay in the cage as well, ditching the moniker of “Bob the Question Mark in the Playoffs” from years past after two consecutive years of dirty playoff showings.
Florida plays that tough, gritty game that Tampa had when their depth consisted of Goodrow and Coleman, but the Panthers get the grit out of their top-end players. Tkachuk has been a menace, wallpapering guys and chewing on his mouthguard like it’s a piece of five-day-old gum. Reinhart continues to stack up the offence like the points-merchant he is, Barkov has a great two-way presence in the middle, and Verhaege is on an absolute heater. Meanwhile, Tampa needed a throwback performance from Stammer to squeak out even one dub in this series.
The series has been high scoring with lots of shots-on-goal as well, where Florida hasn’t scored fewer than three goals in a game, and the total hasn’t dipped under five goals total. Expect some shooters, some fireworks, and some entertainment during this game tonight (sounds like a night in Vegas actually).
Picks:
- Hedman Over 2.5 SOG (+125) 0.25u – Hedman has been firing in this series, hitting over this line in 3/4 games. Panthers seem to give up a higher volume of shots from the point, and Hedman is the PP1 quarterback.
- Paul Over 2.5 SOG (+190) 0.25u – A surprising prop for a third line guy, Paul gets pucks on net with 5, 3, and 3 SOG in his last three games. His spot in front of the net on the powerplay should get him over this line again.
- Lundell Under 1.5 SOG (+110) 0.25u – Weirdly enough, Lundell just avoids getting rubber on the tendy. Maybe his playmaking is starting to take over. The guy hasn’t had over one SOG all series despite the Bennett injury.
- Reinhart Over 3.5 SOG (+140) 0.25u – The number one goal scorer for Florida doesn’t get goals without taking shots. 4, 3, 6, and 5 SOG totals throughout this series, and he will want to put the Bolts away at home.
- Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG (+110) 0.25u – Head Coach Paul Maurice is gonna be telling this guy to fire the puck with the success he’s having in this series (7 points in 4 games). 3/4 times in this series he has been over this line.
- Forsling Over 1.5 Blocked Shots (-110) 0.25u – My only blocked shot prop, Forsling has at least two blocked shots over the last three games and he will continue to get in front of rubber to get his team through this series.
Game: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights, 7:30 p.m. CST
This series has just been an impossible one for me to predict game-to-game. Two losses at home felt like a death sentence for the Stars with VGK headed home to their passionate fans and the bright lights of Sin City. But then, by the skin of their teeth, Dallas pulls off an OT miracle with a young-gun being the only reason they aren’t on the brink of elimination. So you’re saying there’s a chance.
Well, not much of a chance with Logan Thompson in absolute sicko mode right now. The guy is playing like an alien, standing on his head in game three and giving VGK a chance in a game they didn’t deserve to win. All Hail Logan. Past him, this Vegas team has shown that rust may exist on cars and certain metals, but it does not exist on human beings. I know, shocker right? Stone is still rollin out there like I remember him doing last year, Hertl isn’t being brought down by AHL linemates like he was with the Sharks, and Pietrangelo has that all-around game goin. What an absolute sandbagger performance by VGK in the regular season (thanks largely to “injuries” and the LTIR), because they should have been a top three seed in the West.
Dallas is going to have to get the scoring going tonight to stand a chance at getting back into this series. Oettinger has been good, not great – so that’s the end they will have to get it done. The total in this series has yet to surpass seven goals (with two games Under 5.5) and Vegas hasn’t scored less than two goals in any game of the series. While the FLA vs TBL matchup is like an exciting night in Vegas, this matchup is more like a quiet night in at home. Both have their place; they’re just different games.
Picks:
- Eichel Over 3.5 SOG (-120) 0.25u – Dirty Eichs has been the main offensive driver for VGK as per usual, racking up 4 or more SOG in 5/6 matchups against the Stars this year. Fire away brother.
- Marchessault Over 2.5 SOG (-130) 0.25u – Marchey is low-key probably the second most significant offensive play-driver behind Eichel. His teammates rely on him for SOG, and he has hit over this line in 4/6 matchups with Dallas this year.
- Tanev Over 2.5 Blocked Shots (-140) 0.25u – Tanev wears it for the boys. The guy gets in front of shots with reckless abandon, as is shown by his past three games: 6, 4, and 3 blocked shots.
And lastly, as a thank you for reading this far into the article, let’s end things off with a juicy same-game-parlay lotto play in the FLA vs TBL game:
SGP – FLA vs TBL:
- Over 2.5 Goals FLA + Over 4.5 Goals + Reinhart 3+ SOG + Tkachuk 3+ SOG + Forsling 2+ Blocked Shots (+475) 0.1u
Well that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers, 5:00 p.m. CST
Picks:
- Hedman Over 2.5 SOG (+125) 0.25u
- Paul Over 2.5 SOG (+190) 0.25u
- Lundell Under 1.5 SOG (+110) 0.25u
- Reinhart Over 3.5 SOG (+140) 0.25u
- Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG (+110) 0.25u
- Forsling Over 1.5 Blocked Shots (-110) 0.25u
- SGP: Over 2.5 Goals FLA + Over 4.5 Goals + Reinhart 3+ SOG + Tkachuk 3+ SOG + Forsling 2+ Blocked Shots (+475) 0.1u
Game: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights, 7:30 p.m. CST
Picks:
- Eichel Over 3.5 SOG (-120) 0.25u
- Marchessault Over 2.5 SOG (-130) 0.25u
- Tanev Over 2.5 Blocked Shots (-140) 0.25u