Man, the NFL Draft is a damn exciting event. Every fan whose team has a first round pick is salivating for Thursday to finally be here. A team can take a potential game-changer for their franchise, and in the same vein, a high first round miss can set a franchise back years. The unpredictability of the Draft is part of the reason it’s so exciting, and it’s also a reason that wagering can be so fun here. While the books proclaim to know a lot by setting lines for an event like this, it just takes one wild owner/executive to really love one player, and things completely shift.
Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying I know these prospects like the back of my hand. But these leans I’ve targeted seem to be where the value lies based on all of the conjecture of independent scouts, opinions of NFL staff, and any other draft-relevant research I’ve looked at leading up to this article. And it has been a lot, because I love this shit. So let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100 bets. Bet responsibly.
Pick One: JJ McCarthy Under Pick 5.5 (-140) 1u
This one just seems too obvious for me, and I’m thinking I’d play this line all the way up to -200. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and there are too many opportunities for a trade-up here to envision McCarthy going outside the top five.
I’m not wowed by McCarthy from what I’ve watched. But you hear all the scouts: “can do a lot more than he had to do in that system”, “underrated scrambler”, “amazing throw-on-the-run ability”. Sure, but this is a reach based on the talent in my eyes. Nonetheless, it has been made clear that there are multiple teams looking to move up to draft him (Giants and Vikings) and two teams have stated their intentions to move down from the top five (Arizona and LAC). The Chargers in particular have no incentive to stay at pick five if MHJ goes at four. And both GM’s have shown a tendency to move down in drafts and collect picks. I see McCarthy going at four/five in this years’ Draft, easy money.
There’s also the possibility he could go sooner than four/five, with a lot of smoke coming out regarding Drake Maye having to sit a year due to a lack of fundamentals and Penix/Nix being a class below the top four QB’s. Lock this in as my most confident.
Pick Two: Xavier Worthy Under Pick 30.5 (-120) 1u
I have a lot of confidence in this pick as well, and most of the confidence comes from one significant point: while the “draft experts” and the draft community predominantly has Xavier Worthy as the 6th/7th best WR off the board, and a borderline first rounder, NFL staff opinions lean more towards him being WR4/5 off the board. And it’s clear why.
The fear for any team drafting Worthy is that he’s just another track guy with limited size. We’ve seen this before with guys who had fast 40 times (John Ross and Henry Ruggs being the most recent examples). But Worthy is different, and NFL scouts realise this.
I’ve seen multiple scouts cite his route-running as “impressive”, and most say that his speed translates well into the routes. There are also multiple NFL staffers that confirm Worthy as having a great mindset, coming with that mentality to destroy opposing corners. You can’t tell me that a guy with this speed (broke the 40-yard-dash record at the combine), that can “run routes” based on NFL scouting standards, with a great mentality, will fall through the first round.
I’ve heard mixed reviews on almost all wide receivers outside of the top three (Brian Thomas isn’t strong enough, AD Mitchell is a project, etc.), but the only negative outlook on Worthy is based on his size. I’m sure NFL staff members have heard of Tyreek Hill, right? I’m not comparing him to the Cheetah necessarily, but the speed alone will likely be enough for teams to toss a late first rounder on him after seeing what Tyreek can do.
Pick Three: Dallas Turner Over Pick 9.5 (-150) 0.5u
That’s right: I’m going against every person’s mock draft. It seems like everyone and their mother have Turner going 8 to the Falcons. And while this is a possibility, I don’t think it’s probable for two reasons.
The first is that the top-end of this edge class is extremely murky. I have heard many-a-rumbling about Latu being the preferred option for the Falcons if they do stay at 8, with a clear history between Latu and his ex-coach Jimmy Lake, now in Atlanta. Then you have Jared Verse, who is an absolute wildcard as a very effective edge for FSU.
The second is that Atlanta is one of the most likely teams to trade down in the draft. The draft community is all over this move, and it makes a lot of sense if they don’t value the Edge players on the board in their top ten. Then again, don’t be surprised if the Falcons go with someone like Odunze at 8, making for Verse as the prime candidate for the Bears pick at 9 based on the fit. All those scenarios have Turner outside the top nine picks.
Pick Four: Malik Nabers First Wide Receiver Drafted (+350) 0.2u
Pick Five: Marvin Harrison Jr. Second Wide Receiver Drafted (+550) 0.2u
That’s right, I’m willing to take a shot on these two. Again, hearing what NFL staff have been saying about Nabers, it’s easy to bet against an amazing WR in MHJ due to the game-changing ability of Nabers. Especially at this line, where I see it being more 50-50 as to which one will be picked first.
The Athletic recently put out an article with NFL staff opinions on the top three wide receivers. And while there was no surprise at #3 with Odunze clearly ranking there, there was a huge surprise at #1: Nabers was preferred by most over MHJ. Most of the scouts/coaches cited Nabers dynamic ability with the ball and disgusting cuts as the reason for ranking him higher, proclaiming him the most explosive player in the draft. In reality, I don’t really know if he’ll be a better NFL pro than MHJ, but Nabers is likely getting the look first in this draft because of his truly excellent traits.
If Nabers goes first, MHJ goes second. Odunze seems to be just a level below these two, and the +550 on MHJ as the second WR drafted is absolutely juicy.
Other Small Lottery Plays
Pick Six: Jared Verse at Pick 9 (+550) 0.1u
Already touched on this one above, but Verse is my pick for CHI if Odunze goes before the ninth pick. Poles seems to like guys with the build of Verse (has bulk and can set the edge) as opposed to pass rushers like Latu and Turner. +550 is good enough value for a sprinkle.
Pick Seven: Third Cornerback Drafted Nate Wiggins (+220) 0.1u
I have Arnold and Quinyon as the clear one and two cornerbacks in this draft: why not take the fastest cornerback as the third off the board. While his frame is slight, the only guy that will contest him as CB3 in my mind is Dejean. I have a feeling that speed beats out versatility in this draft.
Pick Eight: Troy Franklin First Round (+300) 0.1u
Not enough respect is given in the draft community to the guy who made Nix, a QB notorious for not throwing deep balls, very good at hitting the deep bombs. If you ever check out the PFF metrics, this guy has a better draft metric than guys like Brian Thomas, projected to go around pick 19 in the Draft. One more flyer here my friends.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Pick One: JJ McCarthy Under Pick 5.5 (-140) 1u
Pick Two: Xavier Worthy Under Pick 30.5 (-120) 1u
Pick Three: Dallas Turner Over Pick 9.5 (-150) 0.5u
Pick Four: Malik Nabers First Wide Receiver Drafted (+350) 0.2u
Pick Five: Marvin Harrison Jr. Second Wide Receiver Drafted (+550) 0.2u
Other Small Lottery Plays
Pick Six: Jared Verse at Pick 9 (+550) 0.1u
Pick Seven: Third Cornerback Drafted Nate Wiggins (+220) 0.1u
Pick Eight: Troy Franklin First Round (+300) 0.1u