It’s finally here, hockey fans. The 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us, and we have some big plays to make this first round very interesting. The NHL Playoffs are defined by a few things. Hot goaltending can lead you to a Cup. Grit and toughness play a significant factor in determining whether a team is, or is not, a Stanley Cup contender. And at the end of the day …. the Playoffs are very unpredictable. We can’t just go shooting our shot here, throwing bets at every series on the go, if we’re going to turn a profit. Some series are just made for watching, not wagering. So we have a few very confident series bets for three dominant teams heading into the postseason. But we’re not done there, as we also have an interesting play on another matchup in the field, with some good data to back it up.
No need to wait any longer, it’s time to make that cash going into the second round.
*Units for me will be $100 bets. Bet responsibly.
Games will be listed below in order from highest unit bet to lowest unit bet.
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Pick One: Florida Panthers Series Win vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-170) 3u
We’re going with one of our two huge plays here, and I couldn’t be more confident than I am for this one. Tampa Bay’s resume speaks for itself. A near-dynasty and nasty on paper, with the superstars to contend against any team, and a goaltender who might be the most accomplished tendy of his era. Hey, if this was 2-3 years ago, my choice would easily be the Lightning here. But at this point in time, it’s the Panthers coming in with grit, the depth, and the hardened, playoff experience. Meanwhile, the Bolts are starting to breakdown like a cheap toy made in China, and this perennial playoff team will need massive performances from all their top guys to even make this series close. If that happens …. Florida still has the firepower to match the Bolts, and the goaltending matchup is a near dead draw based on recent playoff and regular season performance.
Let’s start with the offences. The advantage here has to go to Florida based on the overall unit. Of course, the Bolts have that explosive front end including the likes of Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, and Hagel, among others. It’s solid, but if you look at the data, it gets less promising. While the top line with Kuckerov and Point showed solid production in almost all metrics throughout the season, the second line of Stamkos, Hagel, and Cirelli was disappointing to say the least (despite Stamkos’ goalscoring spree to end the year). The line was outscored by quite a wide margin during the season, and the bottom six isn’t much better, with Paul being the only notable player in that group.
On the other hand, you have Florida with two rock-solid lines, ready to attack whichever way the opposing team decides to go with their shutdown line. This is why the Rats are so damn dangerous. You have the two-headed snake of Barkov and Tkachuk down the middle of the ice. You have the 57 (ridiculous) goalscorer in Reinhart flying down the wing, matched with a 40 goal scorer in Verhaeghe. And you rock some grit throughout the forward group, including that absolute weasel Sam Bennett. I expect the top two lines to produce sufficiently for Florida, and if I had to pick which team’s depth scoring shines through, I’d also lean Panthers.
Even if you make the argument that the forward groups are equal, just look at the defensive cores and let me know what you think. I see one good defenseman (not great anymore) in Hedman for TBL, and I see three in Ekblad, Montour, and Forsling for FLA. Now full disclosure, Ekblad has been banged up all year, and that might be an issue through this series. But the Bolts are outmatched on the backend regardless. It’s confirmed that Sergachev won’t be back for round one, so I’m giving a huge advantage to this Florida backend over a Lightning backend that includes guys like Lilleberg and Raddysh. That’s right, this isn’t the Stanley Cup version of the Lightning we’ve come to expect anymore.
The last aspect of the matchup comes down to the goaltending, and let me leave you with an uncomfortable truth: Bobrovsky has been a better goalie than Vasilevskiy, both in the playoffs last year, and in the regular season this year. Bob could have been the Playoff MVP last year had the Panthers won the Cup, he was that good. And this year, a .913 SV% and nearly 16 goals saved above expected. On the other side, you have Vasilevskiy, with a very dismal .899 SV% and ~1 goal saved above expected. While Vasilevskiy may be playing better in the last month, it’s undeniable this goaltending matchup is a near-wash (at worst) for the Panthers.
Add it all up, and I have the better Florida team winning this series.
Pick Two: Carolina Hurricanes Series Handicap -1.5* vs New York Islanders (-165) 3u
*Hurricanes to win the series in six games or less
Despite the fact that the Hurricanes burned me late in the season, this squad is way too good to lose to a subpar Islanders team that probably shouldn’t even be in the dance. I mean, come on, NYI with more losses than wins this season and a -17 goal differential? That’s the shits. But I digress; let’s go through the clear advantages the Canes have against the Isles.
Starting with the forward groups, the depth is the true separator again in this matchup. The Canes have the highest 5-on-5 shot generation in the League, and Guentzel has been a star since coming over. 5 points per 60 minutes in his time with Carolina. Jarvis has been great since transitioning to the first line full time, and we all know Sebastian Aho. Having Svechnikov, Teravainen, and Marty Necas to fill in the gaps on lines two/three, with good defensive centres in Staal and Drury, is a luxury. And it looks a lot better than what NYI is rocking underneath their dynamic duo of Barzal and Horvat, which includes guys like Pierre Engvall, JG Pageau, and Hudson Fasching. NYI’s depth scoring ends up being the likes of Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, and that’s about it. They can’t hold up against the Canes, as is indicated by their season rank in goals-for-per-game (bottom half of the League).
While NYI is a decent defensive team under Roy, the Canes are a better defensive team; and they have better defensive players. There’s depth to spare on the Carolina backend, with five defenseman (Slavin, Burns, Pesce, Sjkei, and Orlov) that could fill a top-two role on a lot of teams. Their defensive and offensive metrics are all positive, and you gotta love being able to roll the pairings when the Isles will be shortening the bench frequently. Dobson is a straight stud, I can’t knock him. But he is day-to-day with an injury, and beyond him, they don’t have a lot to lean on. Pelech and Pulock used to be a shutdown pair, but they regressed this year ranking below average in expected goals and actual goals. Romanov is alright, but nothing special. It just isn’t looking good for the Isles when it comes to keeping pucks out of the net.
But that’s alright NYI fans, cause you have Sorokin, right? Not right. Varlamov has actually outperformed Sorokin on the year, and the gap has widened lately. Varly is actually coming in with some pretty good numbers, rocking a 6-1 record over his last seven games with a save percentage over .930%. But he hasn’t been going up against a team that peppers goalies like the Canes do, and even if NYI’s goalie ends up getting hot, Carolina has Freaky Freddy to stopgap their backend. Andersen is slated to be the starter for game one, and since he got back in the lineup, he has a .951 SV% and nearly 15 goals saved above expected. That goals saved above expected figure is 1st in the League since that point.
Again, this is another matchup where one team totally outmatches the other. I know, anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. But this result and the Florida result are just locks in my view. Save the upsets for the other series, we’re cashing favourites over here.
Pick Three: Dallas Stars Series Win vs Vegas Golden Knights (-130) 1.5u
This line finally came out after it was confirmed last night that VGK would be taking on Dallas. And it’s just what I thought …. the books are giving too much respect to a Vegas team that may look great on paper, but can’t matchup with this Dallas team.
Why disrespect the Stars? It was an amazing season, finishing tops of the Conference with serious skill at all three levels of the ice. I mean, let’s start with the netminders. Oettinger might be the best goalie in the NHL and he just came into the league a few years ago. This guy finishes in the top three in goals saved above expected every year, shrugs his shoulders, and gets right back in the crease. This year was no different. A backstop that you can always trust, this is a clear advantage going into the series for the Stars with both Thompson and Hill playing average puck throughout the season. Even if Hill catches fire again this Playoffs, Oettinger outplays him, and the Stars will almost certainly have the lower goals-against in this series.
That prediction becomes even more of a certainty when you look at the defensive cores these teams rock. Two offensive stalwarts on the backend with Dallas (Harley and Heiskanen) to go along with a great set of defensive defenseman (Suter, Lindell, and Tanev), the Stars have it all. The emergence of Harley is what really makes this group formidable (bursting onto the scene with 15 goals this year), as you can have a one-two punch with him and Heiskanen. Then, you have the grizzled vets with good defensive presence tending to the defensive zone. Perfect. But to be honest with you, this might be a spot where Vegas is comparable. Hanifin, Pietrangelo, Theodore, Martinez, Hague, and McNabb. Solid for sure, but really no better than Dallas’ core. Pietrangelo is slowing down, as is Suter. But the top defenseman on either team is going to be wearing a Stars uniform in Heiskanen, so that could push Dallas over the top on the backend.
At last, we come to the forwards, and even if VGK is at full health, the Stars just have that underrated juice upfront. Sure, you could say the Stars don’t have the superstars like the Knights do. Eichel is a sick joke, Stone is a killer (if healthy, we will see), and Marchessault is low-key dirty. Oh yeah, and they added Hertl and Mantha at the deadline. It’s a bonafide top six. But take a look over the benches at Dallas, and you’ll see a top line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski looking back at you. Robertson is a top ten scorer in the NHL, Hintz is like Barkov-lite in that his two-way game is great with sufficient offence, and Pavelski’s resume speaks for itself. There’s proven playoff performers up front (Jamie Benn, Mason Marchment, and Matt Duchene) to go with explosive young talent (Stankoven and Wyatt Johnson). The complexion of this group is perfect for playoff hockey, and their lack of true “star-power” is more than made up for by the matchups they’ll be getting with their depth forwards.
So Vegas has the superstars up front, but Dallas still has top-end talent to go along with way better depth. Dallas has the best defenceman in the series, and the groups are pretty much equal when it comes to ability on that end. And in net, the Stars have the clear advantage. I don’t know, this all sounds to me like the Stars have this one in the bag. Expect lower scoring games with Dallas zone dominance and flashy Oettinger saves baby.
Pick Four: Under 2.5 Road Wins in Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets Series (+100) 1u
A sneaky little play for one unit, this one is pretty self-explanatory. The series is obviously very close in this one, with Winnipeg having the defensive edge and Colorado having the offensive edge. But the true value lies in the home/away splits, specifically with the Avs.
Look at the standings and you will see that the biggest disparity in the league between home/away records is Colorado. 31-9-1 at home this year. That’s absolutely filthy, and we all remember MacKinnon’s home-game point streak reaching astronomical levels. But on the road ….. these guys must really be hitting the sauce, because the hangover is evident. 19-16-6 is their record away from home. Like, that’s bad. Very bad. And don’t ask me to explain it to you, but the proof is in the pudding. Colorado will not win on the road in this series, especially with the Whiteout in Winnipeg and the deafening cheers of the fans through the first two games of the series.
Winnipeg will also have some trouble winning in Colorado. The Avs are so good in their own barn, and Winnipeg isn’t anything special on the road compared to when they’re at home. Though I expect the Jets to win the series, it will be super close, and it’s much safer in my mind having a cushion of two road wins with plus money odds. Give this one a look.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with an NHL Player Picks Playoff Preview. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Pick One: Florida Panthers Series Win vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-170) 3u
Pick Two: Carolina Hurricanes Series Handicap -1.5 vs New York Islanders (-165) 3u
Pick Three: Dallas Stars Series Win vs Vegas Golden Knights (-130) 1.5u
Pick Four: Under 2.5 Road Wins in Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets Series (+100) 1u