Holy shit, it’s finally here fight fans. One more sleep until the best pay-per-view event that has ever been created. Honestly, I felt we paid for this card by watching all those mediocre Fight Nights over the last few weeks, but I would gladly trade that for this
huge night of fights. Everyone knows the card. 12 current or former UFC Champions scheduled to fight. Early prelims that will knock your socks off, followed by a prelim card that would melt any Fight Night card. And then …. the main card, with a lot of primetime betting opportunities. I picked four spots where I’m the most confident, and I will say …. I’m shooting my shot here. We aren’t just stacking favourites: there are two slight dog plays that I absolutely love. So no need to talk about this sick card any longer; let’s hop into the bets.
*Units for me will be $100 bets. Bet responsibly.
Pick One: Main Event: Jamahal Hill vs Alex Pereira
Pick: Jamahal Hill ML (+110) 1u
I hate picking against Poatan, but this is just too good a spot for Jamahal.
Let’s go through some of their recent fights to show why this is the play.
Pereira’s last fight was against Jiri. Hated the early stoppage, but besides that, there were some glaring reasons why Jiri lost. First was that he got way too aggressive, swarming Poatan in the second round. It was reckless; but that’s Jiri. I haven’t seen the same from Jamahal when he has a fighter backed up against the fence. He’s a lot more measured in that situation. Second was that Jiri refused to stay in southpaw. Every single leg kick he ate was to his front leg when he was in a conventional stance. The damage to Jiri’s leg was a big reason why I believe he got so reckless in looking for the finish in the second round, which led to his demise.
Then, the fight against Jan. A pretty bad fight for Poatan. He got out-grappled with ease, and in most of the exchanges before Jan gassed, they were trading pretty equally on the feet. Jamahal does not have the grappling game to take this approach, nor does he have the interest (in my mind), but there were times in this fight where Pereira was quite reckless and left himself open to the counter. Could be lethal against Hill.
Poatan’s last loss was to Izzy, and I see Hill performing in a very similar manner to beat Pereira. Izzy was predominantly in a southpaw stance throughout the fight, which negated Poatan’s leg kicks, as it seems as though Pereira can’t throw the kick on a southpaw without getting too far out of position. Jamahal predominantly fights in southpaw, so this is advantageous. Izzy also drew Pereira into his power, which was key to Izzy getting the knockout once Pereira swarmed him. If Izzy can knockout Pereira …. Hill can knock his block off.
Some may be concerned about Hill’s injury history (torn achilles) and the corresponding layoff before this fight. Man, Jamahal looked great at the press conference, and he spent months at the UFC PI rehabbing the injury with the best sports scientists around. If Jamahal was an old man, I might not have as much confidence in him coming back strong. But the man is only 32-years-old and just hitting his prime! Compare that to 36-year-old Pereira with a lot of wear-and-tear over his career …. it all lines up for Hill to stay in his preferred southpaw stance, negating Poatan’s leg kicks, while landing with power on the feet. I would definitely not be surprised by a Hill KO, but we are taking the easy play with his Moneyline.
Pick Two: BMF Title: Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway
Pick: Justin Gaethje ML + Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) 2u
Ugh, another one where I hate picking a winner. Max is still one of my faves without a doubt …. but c’mon ….. It’s the Highlight here.
Gaethje’s last fight against Poirier was more than impressive. This was one of the most anticipated fights of the year, and everyone had it as a five-round-war waiting to happen. That is, until Gaethje slept Poirier with a head kick faster than I got the shits after eating Dustin’s hot sauce. Very fast, and surprisingly slick for a guy who makes his money with leg kicks and boxing combos.
The way I see this fight going …. it seems like it will be a lot more comparable to Gaethje vs Fiziev, which is actually one of my favourite three-round fights of the last few years. Man, Fiziev was so fast and accurate, and I had a serious feeling Gaethje was going to lose that fight. But then he comes out in the second round, guns ablazing, causing real damage and taking over the fight., Despite the speed and volume advantage for Fiziev, Gaethje found a way. While I wouldn’t guess Justin’s IQ is genius-level, his fight IQ has almost gotten to that level since he’s made adjustments to his game.
And this is no knock on Max. I see a competitive fight taking place, where Max shows up a lot more physically prepared than he was for his fight against Poirier at 155 a few years back. He will have tremendous striking and volume, no doubt. But Gaethje will stack up the damage, as he often does (Chandler, Fiziev, Ferguson, etc.), and it will just be too much for Max. I’m pairing Justin with the Over 1.5 Rounds because …. well, Max doesn’t get finished. And if there is a finish, I expect it to be from cuts/facial damage late in the fight, because I don’t expect either of these guys to go down. Let’s make another Highlight Justin.
Pick Three: Prelim: Jiri Prochazka vs Aleksandar Rakic
Pick: Prochazka ML (+105) 1.5u
This is one fight where I won’t give both fighters their flowers: I think Prochazka is levels above Rakic.
I get the concern from a lot of people: Prochazka is a shit-eating wild man. The guy never puts his hands up, dances around the octagon, and throws the most wack-job combinations these eyes have ever seen. But the thing about it is …. he makes it work! I mean, the Oezdemir knockout was disgusting. Then, he gets a little rocked by Reyes …. and ends up murdering him with a spinning elbow. He could’ve quit multiple times against Glover …. but pulled through with a fifth round submission. The guy has the warrior spirit like no other fighter in the UFC, and he will give everything he has and more.
I thought it was a bad stoppage in the Poatan fight, but he took the loss with grace and moved on. Jiri had to have seen from that fight that leg kicks can be a problem, and that it would likely be beneficial to either get some checks going or manage range more appropriately. But even if he gets his legs chopped …. this guy’s way too tough to let it impact his game much, and Rakic doesn’t have the countering ability that Poatan has if Jiri rushes the pocket.
On top of that, Rakic’s leg kicks are totally wack. Just reckless. He wings em out without a care in the world, and I’m honestly surprised his leg hasn’t snapped in two yet. I’d add to that: (1) the ring rust coming in after a long layoff, (2) the lacklustre defence, and (3) an all-around mediocre game at this level of the sport …. I think Prochazka is the easy pick here.
Pick Four: Parlayed Fights: Weili Zhang vs Yan Xiaonan & Jalin Turner vs Renato Moicano
Pick: Weili Zhang ML + Jalin Turner ML (-141) 1.5u
A little parlay action to end my card: these are my two most confident picks.
Do I even have to expand on why I’m taking Weili? She has taken any and all comers, and all she has to show for it is pure success with a couple blemishes to one of the best women to ever throw a head kick (Rose). Zhang has it everywhere: grappling the shit out of Lemos, knocking out Joanna, and submitting Esparza. The striking is sharp and tight, and the ground game is more impressive than any woman in the division. I legitimately see no weaknesses in her game; and she somehow seems to just keep getting better after every performance.
While Xiaonan has been great, her two latest wins are …. mediocre at best. A decision win against Dern, a fighter whose striking makes me want to cover my eyes …. not great. The KO of Andrade was impressive, but she is a long-in-the-tooth veteran with a lot of wear-and-tear and a limited game. Before that, Yan actually lost to Marina Rodriguez. Weili is so many levels higher than any of these opponents …. this will be a rude awakening for Yan.
Then we move on to Turner. I love Money Moicano as much as the next guy, and if this fight came down to who could cut the better promo, he’d win by a landslide. But this is the fight game, and I can’t help but see Turner causing massive problems for Moicano.
I literally can’t get that Turner/Bobby Green KO out of my head. Man, sooooooo much damage, and that ref definitely had something against Bobby. But hey, for Turner to get a first round knockout on a guy that hardly ever gets finished … it was sick.
Before that, it was Turner vs Hooker. I actually saw this fight live. Man, Jalin killed Hooker in the first round of that fight. So close to a finish …. but then he gasses. Hey, you live and you learn, and I don’t think Jalin will make the same mistake again. I mean, this is a fighter who put up a good fight against Gamrot over 15 minutes. Gamrot is a top 8 lightweight in the world. I think he can handle Moicano.
Meanwhile, Moicano does have some impressive sub finishes lately; but he also has a loss to RDA. Bottom line is, Moicano shouldn’t ever get close enough to even threaten a submission (his only path to victory in my eyes) and Turner should cause significant damage to Moicano from the outside. Sorry Money, I love you, but it’s Tarantula’s time.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with some NHL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Pick One: Main Event: Jamahal Hill vs Alex Pereira
Pick: Jamahal Hill ML (+110) 1u
Pick Two: BMF Title: Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway
Pick: Justin Gaethje ML + Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) 2u
Pick Three: Prelim: Jiri Prochazka vs Aleksandar Rakic
Pick: Prochazka ML (+105) 1.5u
Pick Four: Parlayed Fights: Weili Zhang vs Yan Xiaonan & Jalin Turner vs Renato Moicano
Pick: Weili Zhang ML + Jalin Turner ML (-141) 1.5u