It’s the most exciting weekend of the year for dimple-heads all over the world! Even sports fans that lack the affinity for watching golf still flock to Masters’ coverage like birds heading south for the winter. It’s one of the most beloved sporting events on the planet for a reason; it’s exciting. The stakes are so high, the players are so good, and ….. you can bet on it. The Masters has to be up there with any other sporting event when it comes to the amounts wagered at sportsbooks, and the action can come in a lot of different ways. Here, I have ten different plays (with some analysis) so you can get a look at my preferred leans ahead of this year’s Tournament. You don’t have to take ’em all, but they’re a good starting point for your board.
*Units for me will only be $10 bets. I am playing a wide range of plays and don’t want to overextend myself. If you are taking fewer plays, or you won’t overextend yourself with bets higher than $10 units, go for it. Bet responsibly.
Notes on Augusta:
Before I launch into the picks, I just wanted to set out some of the trends for this course to justify the reasoning for why I went certain ways with my bets. You’ll see that the golfers I bet all have relatively similar profiles; this is because of the way Augusta lines up. So, here are some trends for this legendary course:
- Experience matters: No debutant has won since 1979; the lack of greenbooks makes it tough for inexperienced players on this course, especially with the undulating, complex, speedy greens.
- Past Results Matter: Out of the past 24 champions, 23 made the cut the previous year (the only one to buck this trend was Patrick Reed in 2018).
- Approach Shot is Key: Augusta is a second shot course. The iron shots will be where these guys make their money this week.
- Bombers Only (Preferably Fairway Bombers): While the rough isn’t the most penal, you should be looking for a guy that hits it a long way, mostly hitting fairways, while gaining shots tee-to-green (TTG).
So you need: (1) a decently long hitter that hits a lot of fairways, (2) with great approach shots, (3) that has experience on these greens and can putt well on fast surfaces, with (d) a history of success at Augusta. This is the formula for a winner at the Masters.
So, without further ado, here are the picks, starting with my Outright Winners.
Outright Winner Bets:
Outright Winner 1: Brooks Koepka (+1900) – 1u
I swear, this bet is almost a lock (as long as Brooks doesn’t pull his hair out playing with Harman and his molasses pace in the First Round). I think Brooks should get through that, especially with projected wet conditions for Thursday (which suits this lazer ball-striker).
Brooks has the game to win here, and came oh so close last year before the collapse/Rahm takeover. He has that T-2 at Augusta last year, and a T-7 and T-2 in the 2019 and 2020 Masters. He did miss the cut in the 2021 and 2022 Masters, but he was never truly healthy during that period. Expect healthy Brooks to make a splash again this year.
We’ve all seen him before; great distance off the tee, with deadly irons. Over the last five Masters Tournaments, he has the 8th most shots-gained (SG) TTG at Augusta in this field. In Major Tournaments, he is gaining an average of 1.77 shots on the field each round. He is the ultimate stud.
All in all, this guy has the TTG game to play with anyone, knows the greens at Augusta, has past success here, and has experience in big moments (where he’s almost always successful).
Outright Winner 2: Hideki Matsuyama (+1700) – 1u
When Hideki is on, he is probably the best ball-striker in the game. This man can land an iron within five feet from 180 out like he’s shooting a balled up piece of paper into a trash can.
We know Hideki loves Augusta: T-16, T-14, 1, and T-13 in his last four Masters. He has one beloved green jacket, and he wants another. The reason why he’s so consistent at Augusta is because his game translates so well to this type of course. A super-long hitter with the aforementioned sniper irons and a streaky putting game that is aided by his knowledge of this course.
And talk about recent form: Hideki is 3rd in this field averaging 2.49 SG total in his last 12 rounds played, and only averages a measly 1.72 SG total over the field in his last 16 Masters’ rounds. I mean … I just don’t know how you don’t take this guy.
Placement Bets*:
*All Placement Bets include ties as winners. So Top 10 would still be a winner if the golfer finished tied for 10th. Make sure to differentiate this on your sportsbook.
Placement 1: Ladder* – Cam Young Top 20 (+137) 2u and Top 10 (+350) 1u
*For those not familiar with a ladder bet, it just means taking a series of bets that can all win if the player/golfer performs very well, such as betting a hockey player to get 3.5 shots in a game along with 4.5 shots in another bet.
That’s right, two separate bets on my boy Cam Young. While I like him to finish top 10, he’s a lock for the top 20 in my view. Let me tell you why.
He finally has some experience here. His T-7 finish at last year’s Masters was impressive after missing the cut the year before, and shows he’s learning this daunting course.
On top of that, this course is basically made for his style of play. In the last Tournament he played (Valspar), he was 2nd place. His TTG numbers were off the charts at 9.2 SG over those four rounds. We look back at his other recent Tournaments, and a similar story can be told. Six straight Tournaments with over 3 SG:TTG and over 1.5 SG:Approach(APP).
If his putter gets hot, we’re cooking with gas. In the last three Tournaments he gained shots on the field putting the ball, he finished in the top 10. With his experience on these greens coming to fruition, I’m expecting the same outcome here.
Placement 2: Ladder – Will Zalatoris Top 20 (+115) 2u and Top 10 (+300) 1u
The ladder betting continues with another young stud. Zally actually burst on the scene when he got 2nd place at the Masters as a debutant a few years back. And ever since, the only thing holding him back has been his putting.
Nevertheless, the putting doesn’t seem to be too big of an issue at Augusta. That 2nd place in his first appearance, coupled with a T-6 finish in his second appearance, speaks to that. While he did have to withdraw from the Masters last year, his health issues seem to have cleared up – and we should have the same ol’ Will on our hands this year.
I mean, he has eight rounds at Augusta and he’s averaging 3 SG total per round over the field in those eight rounds. Nuff said.
Placement 3: Xander Shauffele Top 10 (+137) 3u
My biggest bet wager-wise on the Tournament goes to the king of consistency. There really may be no better all-around player in the world right now.
You name it, he’s got it. T10, T3, T17, and T2 finishes in four of his last five Masters. He’s fourth out of this field in SG:TTG in the last five Masters. He’s averaged 1.85 SG per round on the field in his last four Masters. His recent form is great too, where he’s 4th in the field in SG over his last twelve rounds outside of Augusta.
While poor Xander has earned the reputation as a “bridesmaid never the bride”, he usually gets in the mix just enough to nail this bet.
Placement 4: Si-Woo Kim Top 30 (-120) 1.5u
Si-Woo ain’t that great, but I’ll take these odds for top 30. T39, T12, T34, T21, and T24 in his last five Masters; he’s just waiting to break through. The putting has always been the issue here, which should be evident based on his great TTG numbers.
He has gained an average of 7.5 shots TTG over his last six Tournaments. That’s absurd, and plays very well at Augusta. He’s also 10th in this field in SG over the last twelve rounds outside of Augusta at 1.64 per round. He’s rolling, and if the putter can be even marginal, this should be an easy hit.
Placement 5: Taylor Moore Top 40 (-110) 1.5u
Not too much to say on this one other than the fact that: (a) Moore did this last year as a debutant, finishing 39th, and (b) he tied for 2nd recently at the Tournament in Houston, and he was playing better around the greens.
A decent driver of the ball with some good irons – you could do a lot worse than this value with Mooresy when there are only 89 people in the Tourney and some of them don’t have a shot at making the cut.
Outright Each-Way (E/W) Bets*:
*For those unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, let me explain. You can bet a golfer to win outright, but on top of that bet, you can also bet them to get in the top three, top five, top eight, etc. as well at reduced odds (for the Masters, it is at ⅕ odds). So, say you bet golfer A to win with $10 to make $100. In an Each-Way bet, you would put another $10 on golfer A to finish top 10 (for example). That other $10 bet would get you a win of $20 (⅕ the odds) if golfer A finished in the top 10.
Outright E/W 1: Matt Fitzpatrick E/W Top 12 (+2000, ~+400 Top 12) 1u (each)
I like Scrawny Fitzy at Augusta.
Low-key the guy just gets better every year on this course. T46 four years ago, T34 three years ago, T14 two years ago, and finally cracking the top 10 last year with a T10. Though slender in frame, this kid packs a punch, and his irons are realllll sharp.
In the last five Masters, Fitzy is 19th in this field in SG from the tee. His approach numbers are always good, and he is also 5th in this field in SG:Putting on fast greens in the last 24 rounds he’s played on fast surfaces. He can stripe it, lock it in, and putt it down these glassy greens. Could be his year, and we cover both a high finish, as well as that possibility, with this bet.
Outright E/W 2: Sahith Theegala E/W Top 10 (+2800, ~+600 Top 10) 1u (each)
A lot of folks out there like Theegala this weekend, and for good reason.
Basically the perfect course for a guy like this, as was shown last year when he finished 9th place in his debut. Sahith is a great putter and a very good driver of the ball. The only place he may struggle at times is on his approach. Over his last two Tournaments, he has 3 SG:APP (pretty deadly). Before that: -1.4 and -3.7 SG:APP (pretty not deadly).
But Theegala has shown a tendency to have the approach shots working at Augusta, where he has an average of 2.25 SG on the field over his four rounds. He’s also 8th in the field in SG over his last twelve rounds outside of Augusta, and fast greens are his jam: he averages 1.04 SG in his last 24 rounds on fast surfaces.
It all adds up to a great weekend for the sophomore.
Outright E/W 3: Shane Lowry E/W Top 5 (+4500, ~+1050 Top 5) 0.5u (each)
The last bet of the day may be a bit of a longshot; but that’s why they play the game. And let me tell you …. there is a ton of value here on Lowry.
The way he’s been playing lately, I’d say Shane is basically the European Scottie Scheffler. That’s right, the same Scottie Scheffler favoured to win this Masters Tournament. The TTG numbers for Shane are unreal, especially when it comes to his approach shots. He has over 5 SG:TTG in his last three Tournaments. But the putting …. can be sooooo bad.
He only needs to be a decent putter to win Tourneys. The last two times he’s gained strokes putting, he’s been top 5 in Tournaments. Nonetheless, Augusta greens don’t seem to bother Shane too much, as he’s placed 16, 3, 21, and 25 in his last four Masters. Very impressive for a previous Major Champion priced at 45:1 on the E/W bet. So grab it while the getting is good.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting a betting article soon on the huge UFC 300 Card and will continue to post some NHL picks through the week. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Outright Winner 1: Brooks Koepka (+1900) – 1u
Outright Winner 2: Hideki Matsuyama (+1700) – 1u
Placement 1: Ladder* – Cam Young Top 20 (+137) 2u and Top 10 (+350) 1u
Placement 2: Ladder – Will Zalatoris Top 20 (+115) 2u and Top 10 (+300) 1u
Placement 3: Xander Shauffele Top 10 (+137) 3u
Placement 4: Si-Woo Kim Top 30 (-120) 1.5u
Placement 5: Taylor Moore Top 40 (-110) 1.5u
Outright E/W 1: Matt Fitzpatrick E/W Top 12 (+2000, ~+400 Top 12) 1u (each)
Outright E/W 2: Sahith Theegala E/W Top 10 (+2800, ~+600 Top 10) 1u (each)
Outright E/W 3: Shane Lowry E/W Top 5 (+4500, ~+1050 Top 5) 0.5u (each)