NHL Bets: Game Pick and Player Prop Picks - April 3, 2024

And we’re back with some NHL action friends! Yesterday was a decent day for my picks, but it was only profitable if you were able to get the cashout on the New Jersey Devils 3-Way Moneyline. The Devils up by two at the end of the second period, the payout was almost at full value, and I posted this on my X account to give everyone the heads up I was taking it, and that they should too (my apologies if you can’t cash out on your sportsbook; get a new sportsbook). What happened next ….. well, the Devils shit down their leg and gave up five unanswered goals in the third period to ruin the bet. Still, even if you didn’t get that cash out, we are profitable over two days of tracked bets at +1.26 units (profit of $126 on $100 unit bets). With the cash out, we are at +2.97 units (profit of $297 on $100 unit bets). To keep up with the cash outs I’m taking, it’s easy to toss a follow on X and keep notifications on. You don’t have to take my suggested cash outs, but they are helpful in certain situations:

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With all that being said, for Wednesday, I have another confident lean on a game and another batch of sneaky shots-on-goal (SOG) player props that can have you seeing green. We won a couple of SOG player props last night, specifically the higher unit bets on Under shot totals. But let’s start with the game pick, where there will be some scrappin early and often, and I see the better team pulling this one out.

*Units for me will be $50, bet responsibly

Game 1: New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers, 5:00 p.m. CST

Pick: New York Rangers 3-Way ML (Regulation Time) -125 (1u)

As Michael Scott once so eloquently put it in The Office: How the turntables.

That’s right, after betting on my favourite team (the Devils) last night to win against Pittsburgh on the Pens’ back-to-back, I’m doing the same thing tonight with the Rangers against this very confusing Devils squad on a back-to-back.

I had said in that previous analysis that a team on a back to back has a 5% decrease in win probability. Add to that the fact that Shesty is in net for the Rangers (who may have some tough games, but predominantly keeps the team in a winning position) and NJD has to turn to Kahkonen (with a rank 0.897 SV% and 3.69 GAA) … it’s lookin good for the boys in blue. We also can’t forget New Jersey just had a Chernobyl-level meltdown in the third period against an average Pens squad and morale must be shook.

Then, the final piece to the puzzle: the animosity in this game. The Rangers are just a tougher team. I mean sure, the Devils can throw in MacDermid to throw some knucks, but who’s next? Brendan Smith? Neither of these guys can actually play real minutes with the limitations in their game. Rempe is still gonna run, and a scrap should only make the more physical team (the Rangers) engage in physicality more.

This all adds up to another shit-stomping of the lowly Devils, who had me convinced that I would be cheering for them in a Stanley Cup Final at the beginning of this season. Ah well …. *sniffles and quietly sheds a tear …. how the turntables.

Game 2: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning, 5:00 p.m. CST

Pick: Auston Matthews Over 4.5 SOG -125 (0.5u)

I took Matthews to win MVP on my sportsbook at the height of his hype, when he was easily on pace for 70 goals, at +400. That bet looks like a loser, but there is no doubt about it: Papi gets shots.

First of all, Toronto as a team gets a ton of shots (8th most in the league). But this is led by Matthews, who puts up a gaudy 4.41 shots-per-game (SPG). So already, on the season, he is right on the border of this 4.5 shot line. Then we check out his last five games and the shot totals: 2, 5, 10!, 9!, and 7. Four out of five of those games hit this line. And call me simple, but I expect his shot total to regress to the mean after a 2 shot game last game. So give me this action, with a cherry on top.

Game 3: Los Angeles Kings vs Seattle Kraken, 7:30 p.m. CST

Pick: Anze Kopitar (Tinted Visor Twine Tickler) Over 1.5 SOG -150 (0.5u)

That nickname is a work-in-progress, but if there’s one thing that’s not a work-in-progress, it’s this man’s career. What a stud, and he just keeps going after such a long career in the show. The definition of a defensive forward with longevity, I feel bad for Anze, as I think he was overshadowed by a very similar player in Bergeron.

As much as I love Anze, the math also works in this spot. The LA Kings are 5th in the League in shots this year, and the Kraken are not in the top ten when it comes to preventing shots. There were two spots I liked for the Over on LA shot total lines: Byfield at 1.5 and Kopitar at 1.5. They both have very similar profiles (Byfield hit this line ⅘ times in his last five games, Kopitar ⅗ times), but I am giving the edge to Kopitar for three reasons:

He plays first line powerplay, and Byfield plays on the second unit;
Kopitar plays three more minutes per night on average; and
The -150 on Kopitar Over 1.5 SOG is much better than the -200 on Byfield Over 1.5 SOG

It’s for these reasons that I had to tell Byfield (in my best Randy Jackson voice): It’s a no for me dawg. Give me the Tinted Visor Twine Tickler instead.

Pick: Oliver Bjorkstrand Under 2.5 SOG -180 (0.75u)

Ah, ah, ah, not so fast. The picks for this game ain’t over. Did you know that Seattle is in the bottom half of the League in shots and the Kings are the second best team in the League at preventing shots? Hmm, food for thought.

I looked at all of the lines for Seattle player prop shot totals and there were only two that were set at 2.5 SOG. All of the others were at 1.5 SOG. I just can’t feel good placing a bet on Under 1.5 SOG because that is getting too far into the realm of unpredictability. But at 2.5 SOG here with Bjorkstrand … I’m feeling it in my plums.

Recent performance is a good indicator right? Bjorkstrand has only hit Over 2.5 SOG two times in his last seven games. The man just ain’t shooting his shot, and with the defence of LA, I expect this Under to be a no-sweater.

Game 4: Arizona Coyotes vs Vancouver Canucks, 8:00 p.m. CST

Pick: Nick Schmaltz Under 2.5 SOG -180 (0.75u)

One last sneaky Under for you degens. Again, similar story to the bet above: Arizona does not shoot the puck (26th in the League in shots for) and Vancouver prevents shots from getting through at a high level (top 7 in the League in preventing shots).

Then, you have Schmaltzy on the Coyotes. Don’t particularly know the guy. Don’t particularly like him or dislike him. I see that his shot totals in his last seven games are 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, and 0. I see that this means he has only hit over 2.5 SOG once over his last seven games. And I also see his season average of 2.02 SPG. So this ain’t adding up.

Lock in this Under.

Also, if you’re feeling frisky, I would also suggest a little sprinkle on Coyotes ML at +125 (0.25u). Vancouver has been meh lately, they’re on a road back-to-back, and I love me some home underdogs.

Well that’s it people. I will be posting an article soon with picks for the UFC Fight Night this upcoming weekend, as well as another article on Final Four picks for March Madness. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.