After finding some good juice for the first day of the Sweet Sixteen in my last article, I’m back with some more sick plays for day two. Four amazing games with a good blend of top 10 teams (Duke, Houston, Purdue, Marquette, Tennessee), some just outside the top 10 (Creighton and Gonzaga) and one big surprise (NC State). I’m most excited to see how Duke looks against that vaunted Houston defence (and I’m really hoping Duke looks like shit because, like many, I am a Duke hater). Nevertheless, I’m not expecting any of these games to miss on the “entertainment” side of things.
My picks for day one and day two of the Tournament (Round of 64) were not bad, going 10-11 with a couple of badddd beats. But picks on day four went 4-0. That’s how she goes, and you gotta roll with the punches and keep coming back. I will finish the Tournament with a positive record, and things should get easier with an actual sample size from the Tournament.
Now, let’s move on to the only Cinderella in this Tournament, NC State, facing off against Marquette.
Game 1: NC State vs Marquette, 5:09 p.m. CST
Line: Marquette -6.5, O/U 151.0
Pick: Over 151.0 (1u)
I, like most people following this tournament, have fallen in love with this NC State team. They’re all straight dogs, just working it out there and getting buckets against “better teams”. No one encapsulates this more than the big man Burns, and many compare him to the all-time great streetballer Escalade, as the similarities are uncanny.
Lately, NC State just can’t stop scoring. A team ranked 42nd in KenPom offensive efficiency, their last three team totals are 79, 80, and 84 points. This came against: (1) a hot Oakland team fresh off their Kentucky win, (2) a good defensive Texas Tech team, and (3) UNC ranked 6th in KenPom defensive efficiency. NC State also allows points at a decent rate, as the last three totals are 152, 147, and 160. Two of these results were against teams with very slow pace (lower than 250th in possessions per game), so that doesn’t seem to matter.
For Marquette, I see this game playing out very similar to the Colorado game. Beautiful basketball, where the pace is high, and there is a lot of back-and-forth. The score in that game? 81-77. Colorado actually profiles as very similar to NC State based on the metrics:
- NC State: KenPom rank: 53, KP offensive efficiency: 42, KP defensive efficiency: 75, possessions per game: 138
- Colorado: KenPom rank: 22, KP offensive efficiency: 21, KP defensive efficiency: 47, possessions per game: 152
Marquette has been known to limit some offences (Western Kentucky held to 69), but they shouldn’t be able to do that to this NC State offence if they’re firing, and the points should come for Marquette as well with Kolek running the show out there. Smash the Over.
Game 2: Gonzaga vs Purdue, 5:39 p.m. CST
Line: Purdue -5.5, O/U 154.5
Pick: Gonzaga Team Over 74.5 (1u)
This one is pretty simple. Two points.
The first: Gonzaga scores a ton. The 7th ranked team in KenPom offensive efficiency, there is no doubt they fill up the basket. I mean, the Kansas team they just destroyed 89-68 were shorthanded, but the Zags showed in that game why they’re so dangerous. The ball movement, the motion, the shot-making; not to mention the Nembhard experience. They play moderately fast at 151st in possessions per game. Really, the only team Gonzaga has had trouble scoring against is St. Mary’s, and they have the 14th best defence in defensive efficiency and rank near dead-last in the Nation for pace. So it makes sense. The good thing about this Purdue matchup for the Team Over? Purdue has a worse defensive efficiency rank than St. Mary and they run a moderate pace (167th in possessions per game).
The second: The Zag’s pick and roll attack will be nightmare-city for Edey. We already saw this in the Kansas game. Now, I think Hunter Dickinson is a great college basketball player, but he got straight worked by this P&R attack. They kept getting him on the perimeter, beating him with cuts, and getting easy baskets. Then, he would back off the screens because he was sick of getting beat to the basket, and the Zags hit the resulting open shots. While we may not see Edey really attempt to come out to the perimeter to help with the P&R, this should leave Gonzaga with open shots, and I’m trusting in the Zags to hit those shots just like they did against Kansas.
That’s why the Team Over is looking so juicy. So crush it.
Game 3: Duke vs Houston, 7:39 p.m. CST
Line: Houston -4.0, O/U 134.0
Pick: Under 134.0 (1u)
I swear, this isn’t my Duke bias showing. Duke just doesn’t put up points against slow teams with good defence. Here are their last five games and the corresponding metrics for those teams:
- W 93-55 vs JMU (62 KP, 70 off eff, 71 def eff, 49th in possessions per game)
- W 64-47 vs Vermont (105 KP, 170 off eff, 59 def eff, 341st in possessions per game)
- L 74-69 vs NC State (53 KP, 42 off eff, 75 def eff, 152nd in possessions per game)
- L 84-78 vs UNC (9 KP, 17 off eff, 6 def eff, 58th in possessions per game)
- W 79-64 vs NC State (see above)
You can see that the only time they played a good defence, with very slow pace, the score was very low. Houston is 345th in possessions per game, ranking near dead last. And let me tell you, this Houston defence is miles ahead of Vermont’s defence.
The recent Texas A&M game is not a great example for Houston. But A&M were hitting some impossible shots, and Houston was hitting all of their shots as well, perhaps lessening their intensity on the defensive side of the floor. The score was actually only 76-76 in regulation, so the 100-95 end score is a little deceiving. I would guess Houston rounds back into form defensively like they did recently against good offensive teams in TCU (45th in offensive efficiency) when they held them to 45 and Texas Tech (27th in offensive efficiency) when they held them to 59.
Duke has trouble on the offensive end, and Houston doesn’t hit all of their shots for a second game in a row? Under all day.
Game 4: Creighton vs Tennessee, 8:09 p.m. CST
Line: Tennessee -2.5, O/U 143.5
Pick: Creighton Team Over 70.5 (1u)
Did you know that over the full season, Creightion has only failed to score 71 points in 9 games. I mean, this Tennessee defence is very good, but this should be closer to 75.5 IMO.
Out of Creighton’s last 10 games, there are some good defensive teams. They had Providence three games ago, and put up 73 on a defence that ranked 20th in KenPom defensive efficiency. There was Marquette five games ago where they scored 89 points, and Marquette is 21st in KenPom defensive efficiency. It’s important to note that both Providence and Marquette are around 150th in possessions per game, so the pace is moderate.
The only time in their last five that they’ve not scored over 70 points is against Villanova, where they put up 69 against a team ranked 13th in defensive efficiency and 325th in possessions per game. A very slow pace, which could explain the score.
What about Tennessee? Well they rank 115th in possessions per game. So they actually profile a lot closer to Providence and Marquette than Villanova. Both teams in this game should have enough shot opportunities to go Over this total, and I see Creighton hitting enough shots to get them over 70 points.
For further confidence: Tennessee has allowed more than 70 to a few teams in their last ten games, including 73 to Mississippi State, 85 to Kentucky, 74 to Bama, and over 80 to Auburn.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting an article soon with picks for the UFC Fight Night this weekend, as well as another article on Elite Eight picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game 1: NC State vs Marquette, 5:09 p.m. CST
Line: Marquette -6.5, O/U 151.0
Pick: Over 151.0 (1u)
Game 2: Gonzaga vs Purdue, 5:39 p.m. CST
Line: Purdue -5.5, O/U 154.5
Pick: Gonzaga Team Over 74.5 (1u)
Game 3: Duke vs Houston, 7:39 p.m. CST
Line: Houston -4.0, O/U 134.0
Pick: Under 134.0 (1u)
Game 4: Creighton vs Tennessee, 8:09 p.m. CST
Line: Tennessee -2.5, O/U 143.5
Pick: Creighton Team Over 70.5 (1u)