The hits keep comin’ ladies and gentleman. What a deadly Sweet Sixteen we have on tap for Thursday and Friday. I’ve seen a lot online about how this Tournament has been very boring due to the lack of upsets and Cinderella stories. I get it …. but we have some amazing matchups in store because there were minimal upsets. I mean, who doesn’t want to see the #1 offence in Illinois face the #1 defence in Iowa State? How about a chance to see if Bama can shoot the lights out and put up 90+ on UNC? Don’t even get me started with the juicy matchup of blue-blooded Duke vs hard-nosed Houston for a trip to the Elite Eight. This draw is what every College Basketball fan should want.
My picks for Day One and Day Two of the Tournament (Round of 64) were not bad, going 10-11 with a couple of badddd beats (thanks for scoring more than 6 in the last 8 minutes Creighton, love it). But picks on Day 4 went 4-0. That’s how she goes, and you gotta roll with the punches and keep coming back. I will finish the Tournament with a positive record, and things should get easier with an actual sample size from the Tournament.
With all of that being said, let’s get into the games, starting with an interesting one with Arizona vs a hot Clemson team.
Game 1: Arizona vs Clemson, 5:09 p.m. CST
Line: Arizona -7, O/U 152.0
Pick: Over 152.0 (1u)
Clemson has been probably my biggest surprise of the Tournament. This was a team that got boat-raced by Boston College in the last game of the season, and had just suffered a disappointing loss to Wake Forest prior to that (both teams that did not make the Tournament). Everyone and their grandma had New Mexico beating them as a popular 11 vs 6 pick in the Round of 64. But they found a way to win. Then, Baylor was a popular pick to end the run. Clemson shut them down as well.
People look at these two games and they see that Clemson shut down two potent offences in big spots. Baylor finished with 64 points and New Mexico with 56 points. And that’s fair to say: New Mexico and Baylor are both in the top 40 in KenPom offensive efficiency. New Mexico even puts up a good pace ranking 28th in the Nation in possessions per game, and they still only put up 56. But New Mexico and Baylor had one thing in common in these low-scoring losses: they shot the ball horribly, and it wasn’t because of particularly great defence on Clemson’s part.
This wasn’t just the eye-test telling me this (though it did tell me this, as I watched both games and the amount of missed open shots were absurd). Baylor and New Mexico shot far below the defensive season averages Clemson allows. I mean, 6/24 from three for Baylor and 3/23 for New Mexico. When Clemson usually gives up 33.1% of shots from three to worse teams. The shots just weren’t falling.
The thing is, Clemson can still score, putting up over 70 in both games against pretty good defences (both ranking top 65 in KenPom defensive efficiency). Arizona are pace-merchants, ranking 7th in the Country in possessions per game, buzzing around the court like Pooh Bear high on honey. Clemson should continue to put up over 70.
On to Arizona. They’re coming off two games where they posted 78 points or more, and this was against two of the slowest playing teams in the Country. Clemson isn’t too much faster, but they are faster, and this AZ team will not stop pushing the ball, jacking up threes, making the game hectic. We’ve seen this story earlier in the season, where Clemson played a similarly-styled Alabama team, and that Total hit 162.
This all adds up to an Over pick for me folks (as long as Caleb Love doesn’t go 3/21 from the field. Please don’t do this Caleb).
Game 2: San Diego State vs UConn, 5:39 p.m. CST
Line: UConn -11, O/U 136.0
Pick: UConn Team Over 73.5 (1u)
Who doesn’t love this UConn team? Hurley is hilarious, screaming vehemently at the team when they’re up by 30. Clingan is a beast, Newton is a bonafide threat, and Karaban is a sharpshooter. The weapons on this team are…. quite frankly, absurd. It’s no surprise they are the favourite to go back-to-back.
So with this many weapons, how can they not hit this Team Over? Some would say it’s because of the defence of SD State (ranked 8th in KenPom defensive efficiency). Some might say it’s because of the projected pace of the game (SD is 224th in possessions per game and UConn is 302nd).
But let’s take a look at UConn’s last game against Northwestern. Northwestern is top 75 in KenPom defensive efficiency and runs a very slow pace at 327th in possessions per game. UConn also had a horrible night from three, going 3/27. It was a baddddd shooting night, and UConn still put up 75 points on them. We all saw when they put up 90 against Stetson, another slow team at 292nd in possessions per game.
If UConn can shoot this badly against Northwestern, a good defensive team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the Country, and still put up 75 points…. what could they do with a decent shooting night? Hit this Team Over comfortably, that’s what.
To give you further confidence: UAB shot 20/53 from the field and still put up 65 points on SD State one game ago. SD State’s defence is good, but not that good against a top five offence in UConn.
Game 3: Alabama vs North Carolina, 7:39 p.m. CST
Line: North Carolina -4, O/U 173.5
Pick: North Carolina -4 (2u)
Sorry Bama fans; this is where I see the team getting exposed as fraudulent.
I know it’s harsh, but they’ve earned this reputation through the season.
Let’s start with the recent games. Grand Canyon is a decent team (53rd in KenPom ranks), but that was disgusting basketball. Bama was trailing in the last 10 minutes and would not have won without a pretty wild comeback. The game against Charleston before that …. well, that shouldn’t even count. It was legit shooting practice for both teams, with no defence being played.
Then we go back a bit farther to see how Bama has done against better defences. The Tennessee game in March (3rd ranked in KenPom defensive efficiency) they lost 81-74. The Auburn game in February (5th ranked in KenPom defensive efficiency) they lost 99-81. And what is UNC ranked in KenPom defensive efficiency? You guessed it, top 10 at 6th.
This goes to show that when Bama faces a good defensive team, with competent offence, they fold. And this is exactly what UNC has. UNC’s 16 point win against Izzo in March is so clean, and it showed that UNC can put up 80+ on good defences (Michigan State is 8th in KenPom defensive efficiency). With that display of offence, UNC has a chance to put up close to 100 against this Bama defence. And that should be more than enough to cover this spread with UNC’s defensive prowess.
Game 4: Illinois vs Iowa State, 8:09 p.m. CST
Line: Iowa State -2, O/U 146.0
Pick: Illinois ML at +105 (1u) and Illinois Team Over 72.5 (0.5u)
Ahhh, probably my favourite matchup in the Sweet Sixteen. Who will win this one: Illinois’ offence (ranked 1st in KenPom offensive efficiency) or Iowa State’s defence (ranked 1st in KenPom defensive efficiency)? Here is why I think it has to be Illinois’ offence, which should lead to Illinois winning this game.
One doesn’t have to look further than Illinois’ last opponent to get a good comparison of this Iowa State team. Duquesne also had a decent offence to go along with a very good defence (28th in KenPom defensive efficiency). I mean, this Duquesne defence held the almighty BYU offence in check. And then…. Illinois puts up 89 on them in a shitkicking. This is right after Illinois torched Morehead (nice) for 85. In fact, since February 1, Illinois has only put up less than 72.5 points one time, and that was when they put up 71 against Purdue (top 15 in KenPom defensive efficiency). This team gets buckets, and it doesn’t seem to matter too much whether the opponent is a good defensive team or not.
But we have to look at Iowa State as well. I mean, look at the recent game against South Dakota State. South Dakota is 88th in possessions per game and is 134th in KenPom offensive efficiency. They put up 65 points on Iowa State. Illinois is 87th in possessions per game and 1st in KenPom offensive efficiency. And the books don’t think they can put up 8 more points than South Dakota?
And full disclosure, it’s true that Iowa State has only allowed more than 72.5 points five times all season. But Illinois is just a different offence for me at this point, where Shannon is cashing on every bucket, Domask is hitting every shot, and the Dainja Zone is killing the paint. Again, just too many weapons, and that’s why these bets hit.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting an article soon with picks in most, if not every, game on Day Two of the Sweet Sixteen in March Madness. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game 1: Arizona vs Clemson, 5:09 p.m. CST
Line: Arizona -7, O/U 152.0
Pick: Over 152.0 (1u)
Game 2: San Diego State vs UConn, 5:39 p.m. CST
Line: UConn -11, O/U 136.0
Pick: UConn Team Over 73.5 (1u)
Game 3: Alabama vs North Carolina, 7:39 p.m. CST
Line: North Carolina -4, O/U 173.5
Pick: North Carolina -4 (2u)
Game 4: Illinois vs Iowa State, 8:09 p.m. CST
Line: Iowa State -2, O/U 146.0
Pick: Illinois ML at +105 (1u) and Illinois Team Over 72.5 (0.5u)