It’s almost here you gems!!! Week 1 kicks off in less than a week with a Super Bowl rematch on Wednesday between the Patriots and the Seahawks. While a lot of you guys have already hammered out some drafts, I’m sure many people still have a few more to go within the next few days (which is the best stretch to do drafts so that your team doesn’t get sunk by injury before the season even starts).
In this piece, I’m going through a guy I’m actively fading in each of the first six rounds with some in-depth analysis to explain why that might be the case. It could be fear of their offensive environment due to the supporting personnel, fear of a new offensive play-caller, or just general discontent based on a variety of factors. For a few of these guys, the bear case is obvious from an objective standpoint. For others, things get a bit more obscure, but my feelings remain negative based on how I see the situation.
But before getting into things, just a few ground rules for this exercise:
- The values of all players will be based on their current Sleeper ADPs. For example, Emeka Egbuka is currently going at a Sleeper ADP of 42. This would make him the 6th pick of the 4th round (4.06), so he would be considered one of my players to fade in the 4th round if I were to choose him; and
- This is all based on ½ PPR scoring in 12 team leagues with a standard setup (1 QB/2 RB/2 WR/1 TE/1 FLEX).
Okay, on to the fades my friends.
Player to Fade In Round One
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Seattle Seahawks (WR): Sleeper ADP: Pick 1.08
We start things off with a 2025 league-winner in JSN (aka the Emerald City Route Artist or the Silver Surfer, depending on who you ask). I promise you my bias is not showing as a Rams fan (JSN is objectively one of the best WRs in the NFL), but I just can’t get there with JSN as the WR4 off the board this year. While I got into this a bit in a previous article, here’s the reasoning behind my stance on JSN as the WR6 and 16th overall ranked player in fantasy:
- I still believe there’s a clear tier break between JSN/AJ Brown and Drake London (my WR8), but everything had to go as perfect as possible for JSN in 2025 on his way to finishing as the fantasy WR2. There are a few factors at play here which make me think that things won’t go as perfectly this year.
- The most important factor to consider is the OC change from Klint Kubiak (now Head Coach of the Raiders) to Brian Fleury, who most recently served as the TE coach/run-game coordinator for San Francisco. Obviously we like guys who come from the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree, so Fleury fits the bill to an extent. But even with that being considered, it’s clear that this has the potential to be a notable downgrade when it comes to Seattle’s offensive playcalling.
- You’re going from a playcaller in Kubiak who served as a primary offensive playcaller for two full years (Saints in 24’ and Seahawks in 25’) and had sterling passing efficiency totals even in the face of lacking QB talent (say what you want about Darnold’s talent, but he was never a guy regarded as a Top 10 QB) to a guy in Fleury who’s (i) never been the primary offensive playcaller before, (ii) never even held the position of offensive coordinator in a complimentary role to the Head Coach, and (iii) coached on defense/special teams for the majority of his career before joining the 49ers in 2019. I’m all for giving guys with no playcalling experience a chance, but Kubiak is arguably a Top 5 offensive playcaller in the NFL, so I’d expect regression in this offense as a whole.
- Based on recent comments from the team and the obvious strength of this Seattle defence, Fleury will be looking to maintain the type of run rate that Kubiak had last year (3rd in the NFL, calling run plays 49.7% of the time). If that’s the case, the only way JSN can sustain the type of production he had last year is if the passing offense is just as efficient.
- The key to making a passing game efficient is being able to hit on deep balls, something JSN did tremendously through all of last year. Per PFF, JSN had 16 of his receptions and 614 of his receiving yards on passing plays where the ball traveled 20+ air yards (both marks were 1st in the NFL, and there was a huge gap between him and 2nd place when it came to receiving yards on these plays). Add on the fact that he had 4 of his TDs on these plays, and JSN’s fantasy points on deep passes make up 32.3% of his total fantasy point output on the season (93.4 fantasy points on deep passes, 289 fantasy points total). No other wideout that finished as a Top 24 WR in 2025 came close to 30%, showing JSN’s reliance on deep shots when it came to his WR2 finish.
- But then we have to take into account the efficiency part of the equation. With Seattle running the ball at such a high rate last year, they had less passing plays called, resulting in fewer chances to get the ball downfield. For reference, out of QBs who had 10+ starts, Sam Darnold led the NFL in 20+ air yard completion rate (58.8%) and was 4th in passing yards on these plays (1,017). That’s all while ranking 15th in pass attempts of 20+ air yards. That’s ridiculous efficiency.
- So if Fleury can’t get as much out of the deep passing game as Kubiak did (I find it tough to believe he will even if he excels as an OC), and the commitment to the run remains the same (especially in the redzone, where JSN was already failing to receive many targets), then how can JSN maintain the form he had last year? That’s not even bringing up the fact that: (i) standout rookie WR Tory Horton is back in the fold after missing 9 games last year, (ii) WR Rashid Shaheed should be more involved in the offense as he was used pretty sparingly in 2025, and (iii) this run game without Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet (to start the season) could be worse, leading to more emphasis on the pass game from defenses.
With all that considered, it’s impossible for me to have JSN going anywhere near his ADP. If by some chance he falls to the middle of the 2nd round, I might be willing to take the shot on him. Any earlier than that and I believe you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.
Player to Fade In Round Two
Kenneth Walker: Kansas City Chiefs (RB): Sleeper ADP: Pick 2.06
Ashton Jeanty is the easy pick to fade here due to his current injury situation and the projected lack of TD opportunities coming from a subpar Raiders offence. But let’s go with someone a bit more controversial. I swear that every analyst and their mother has K9 up to a 1st/2nd round turn pick in their rankings. I likely would too if I was just focusing on the positives of his new situation with the Kansas City Chiefs. There’s no doubt Walker is an explosive player with insane top end speed and good ability as a pass-catcher. He’s moving to an offense that should give him a larger workload than he ever received in Seattle, and the Chiefs defence should give him more than a few gamescripts where 20+ carries seems attainable. That’s not even mentioning that Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have shown the ability to utilize bellcow RBs effectively.
But here’s the thing: other than a projected increase in workload and the fact that Charbs isn’t stealing TDs anymore (which I’ll get to), that’s the exact same situation he had in Seattle last year where he finished as the RB29 in fantasy points per game (FPPG) and the RB22 overall. Seattle had a top-notch defence that provided run-heavy gamescripts, and the aforementioned Klint Kubiak is one of the best run-game playcallers in the league (despite lacking overall talent on the SEA OLine last year, Kubiak got the Seahawks to top 10 in EPA/rush over the back half of the season). So if you take the playcalling upside and the gamescript upside away from K9, you’re left with two primary reasons for Walker being a top 12 fantasy RB this year: (i) the increased workload, and (ii) the Chiefs are an explosive offence with solid personnel leading to more TD opportunities.
That’s all fine and dandy, but then consider this: (i) Kenneth Walker has never been a bellcow back, so it’s entirely projection to think that he can handle that type of volume while maintaining the efficiency he had in previous seasons, and (ii) I don’t see the Chiefs finishing as a top 10 scoring offense. Let’s dive into these two points further.
Through four years in the NFL, Walker has never exceeded 228 rush attempts or 252 touches (which he had last year) in a single season. This is all while Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, and CMC are logging 340+ touch seasons. Even with that reduced workload over his career, Walker still accrued a pretty spotty injury history. Despite the fact that he hasn’t missed that many games over his career, it’s clear that he was playing at reduced health for more than a few stretches based on the list below:
This isn’t a guy who had one major injury causing him to miss significant time in a season – he’s a guy that picks up multiple minor injuries that can cause reduced efficiency and effectiveness (which can sometimes be more detrimental than a guy being straight up out of the lineup, as you still feel like you have to play them in fantasy but they don’t produce up to an adequate level). And all of that happened on a snap count/touch restriction. I’m not forecasting an injury in any sense, but it’s a risk factor that has to be considered when such a notable change is being made to his workload. While I don’t think issues with his ankle/foot through camp (noted by Andy Reid as an issue with his cleats) are indicative of any risk to health and performance throughout the year, it’s not exactly encouraging when a guy is set to take on the most volume he’s ever had.
But say K9 is able to hold up over a full season with 20+ touches per game. Is his TD total really going to jump up to 12+ TDs in this Chiefs offense? Well, that’s entirely projection as well. Everyone is saying that the offense will be back to its former glory with Bienemy back, and that they’re going to score a lot more points due to an improved explosive run game. I think that’s asking a lot from an offense which: (i) hasn’t been a top 10 scoring offense since 2022, (ii) has a QB (granted, a very good QB) who has reduced scrambling ability and mobility following a late ACL tear, and (iii) has a lack of capable pass-catching weapons outside of WR who rehabbed his knee in jail and a TE who’s old enough to be a grandpa. If you just look at the numbers below you can see why it might not be that easy for Walker to put up week-winning performances in such an offence.
There’s just too much in the air right now for me to take Walker at cost. K9 could have an increased workload, but that could lead to more wear-and-tear for a guy who’s never received bellcow-work and relies on elite athleticism to produce. K9 could remain relatively healthy with a massive workload, but maybe the offense doesn’t allow him to score the 11+ TDs needed for him to finish as an RB1 (all RBs in the top 12 last year had 11+ TDs). Granted, if Walker does stay healthy & efficient with 12+ TDs, he could be a solid Top 5 option at the position. But if one thing doesn’t pan out, he falls outside of the Top 12 and becomes a disappointment to your fantasy team. I’d much rather take the shot on guys who have already done it workload-wise like Derrick Henry and De’Von Achane, or guys that I consider locked in for 10+ TDs like Hampton and Chase Brown, at current cost. You can come back and shit on me at the end of the season if he ends up as the RB3 in fantasy, but this is where I plant my flag in 2026.
Player to Fade In Round Three
Rashee Rice: Kansas City Chiefs (WR): Sleeper ADP: Pick 3.05
I swear to you I’m not a Chiefs hater. Well, I might hate them from a fantasy perspective, but all the respect to a team who’s stayed at the top of the heap for such an extended period. That being said, I don’t think I’d touch Rashee with a ten foot pole unless guys like McConkey, Higgins, Flowers, and Waddle are off the board. That would make Rice more of a 4th/5th round turn pick, so you can see how low I am on this guy.
There’s no arguing the fact that Rashee is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football. If you just look at his career FPPG since the bye week of his rookie season (that’s when he became a pretty big part of the Chief’s offense), he’s at around 14.1 FPPG through 22 games played. That’s unquestionably good production, as 14.1 FPPG would have had him as the WR8 last year behind studs like Drake London and George Pickens. But as we start to take a closer look at the entirety of Rice’s situation, we begin to get a glimpse at a guy who just can’t deliver for you on a season-long basis.
I know a lot of guys say “well, any player can get injured at any point, so why do you put any stock into injury risk?”. I’d agree to an extent, but there’s still something to be said for the fact that some guys just can’t stand up to heavy workloads in such a brutal sport. There’s numerous factors that can lead to increased injury risk, including (i) failure to take care of your body during the off-hours through treatment and good nutrition, (ii) compensation due to previous injuries causing increased strain on certain tendons/ligaments, and (iii) failure to rehab previous injuries properly and fully. There’s more than a few other factors that go in to it to be sure, but can we really trust Rice to check off all those boxes after he (i) has shown to be an absolute liability off the field while failing to take his profession seriously, (ii) is at an elevated concussion risk after suffering one of the more nasty brain-knocks in Week 15 of last year, and (iii) required a knee clean-up surgery this offseason on the same knee he tore his LCL in during the 2024 season. And then he had to rehab his recently cleaned-up knee in jail because he violated his probation from previous charges related to reckless driving. The same charges which got him suspended for 6 games during 2025. What a mess.
But hey, a fantasy manager’s constant fear that Rice could be suspended or go on the IR appears to be baked into the ADP. If he didn’t have those concerns, he’d likely be going in the same tier as Ceedee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. The fade then becomes about one thing: production for this year matching the same production Rice had previously (the production that has kept his ADP in the 3rd round this year despite fears about availability). And I’m just not of the opinion that Rice will match that production in 2026.
I have to give credit where it’s due, @KyleM_FF did the heavy lifting on X to show evidence for my sentiment towards Rice and his projected production this year: that the guy can’t soak up nearly as many high-value opportunities which resulted in him being such an elite fantasy asset previously:
With that 56.9% mark above, we’re due to see some obvious regression to his production on scrambles, as Mahomes will not be nearly as mobile as he has been in the past due to the ACL tear late last year. You’ll also likely see some reduction in screen production, as K9 will definitely soak up more designed looks than Kareem Hunt/Isaih Pacheco did the past few years (I may be out on Walker, but this is a given). So there’s a pretty decent hit to the fantasy production he’s accrued in the past. With his lacking ability when it comes to separation (which could get even worse with how slow he’s looking in camp after the knee clean-up), it’s gonna become even harder for the guy to get open without Mahomes extending the play 3+ seconds through his legs. And then the redzone point: if K9 does stay healthy, there’s no way that Rashee keeps up that insane usage. If K9 doesn’t stay healthy, the Chiefs aren’t going to be in the redzone at a top-half of the league rate due to decreased offensive production. That all makes it very hard for me to see Rice averaging over 14 FPPG this season.
That all being noted, I still think he’s going to be a big part of this passing offense. But how big a part is the question. While Andy Reid is still the overarching playcaller, Eric Bienemy now makes his return to being the OC after several years of Matt Nagy in that position. We saw the previous regime feed Rice on PPR spam slant routes at an amazingly high clip, where Rice had one of the highest target shares in the NFL at around 30%. Is it a given that Bienemy is going to facilitate the exact same thing at such a high rate? It’s not like the offense was super successful when the Chiefs had done this previously. And if the other WRs in this room remain healthy (Worthy, Thornton, standout rookie Cyrus Allen, and promising sophomore Jalen Royals), there’s going to be more target competition than the Chiefs have ever had before at WR (unless you consider JuJu Smith-Schuster (still a free agent) and Hollywood Brown (5th WR on Philly) as more capable pass-catchers).
Rice will have games where he pops off, and he still should be the #1 target earner in this offense. But when I have concerns over his availability, maintaining an elite production profile in a new offensive environment, and the slow start that could be coming after knee rehab in jail, I can’t be in on Rice at WR12. He’s closer to WR18-20 for me, so you can bet that I won’t have any shares of Rice on my teams come Week 1.
Player to Fade In Round Four
David Montgomery: Houston Texans (RB): Sleeper ADP: Pick 4.08
It was between Monty and Skatteboo for this spot, as I’m catching increasingly bad vibes from the Giants and Skat in a variety of ways (playcalling with Nagy + Roman, ramp-up from severe injury, addition of Najee Harris, general discontent from Harbaugh towards Skat). That being said, I’d still be comfortable with Skat over Monty at cost.
Oh David Montgomery, where do we even start with the guy? He’s been in the league seven full seasons now, and things have changed drastically for Monty over the many years of his career. His first four years, he’s the bellcow for an average to below-average Bears offense while averaging 267.5 touches per season. He missed 6 total games during that four year stretch, showing great durability while ranking as the RB30 (2019), RB7 (2020, wow), RB20 (2021), and RB26 (2022) in FPPG. Not bad production (especially in 2020), but not really a standout asset as a #1 RB on the depth chart.
Then, Monty goes to the Lions in 2023. He became more of a committee back (taking a slightly lesser share than Jahmyr Gibbs), as his touch share went down to 235 in 2023 and 221 in 2024. Despite a lesser workload, Monty still missed 6 total games (the same amount of games he missed in the previous four years, but this time in a two-year stretch). But his 2023 and 2024 fantasy finishes superseded the finishes he had as the #1 RB in Chicago, as he ranked as the RB13 in FPPG both years. Ben Johnson (former OC of the Lions, now Bears Head Coach) had the offense working at an elite level with great playcalls/designs, an unreal OLine, and multiple skilled pass-catchers to keep defenses honest.
But then – 2025 happens. Ben Johnson leaves and the Lions offense is a bit of a mess with the OLine looking as mediocre as it ever has. Things were still functioning alright, but it was not what we expected of this offense until HC Dan Campbell took over the playcalling in Week 10. Campbell was able to salvage the offense to 4th in PPG over the totality of the year (28.3 PPG), but corresponding with that was Monty getting his lowest number of touches ever (182) and his worst fantasy finish ever (RB32 in FPPG, RB27 overall). And that’s all while playing a full 17 game schedule. Some of you may think that’s because Gibbs became more of a workhorse back, but he only had 18 more touches in 2025 than he did in 2024. The writing was on the wall – Monty was becoming less efficient and effective as a runner, leading to his departure from the Lions following the season. Then – in swoop the Houston Texans, who had appeared to secure their bellcow back for the 2026 season.
So now everybody is drafting a 29 year old Monty with 7 full seasons and 1,708 total career touches as the RB20 in fantasy. Justifiable on the surface, as one could say “well, Monty was the RB13 in FPPG just two years ago in a split backfield, why wouldn’t he be nearly as good as a bellcow back on a team with such a great defence?”. The thing is, there’s way too much context suggesting a regression in form despite the fact that he may get more work than he did last year.
Let’s start with some positives for Monty coming into 2026. He should get almost all the goalline rushing work in this offense after Woody Marks struggled heavily in that area last year. He should also have more total touches than he had last year, with a clear role as the bruiser on early downs. Gamescripts will favour a heavy rushing attack as the Texans try to win games through their defence, and the pass game might not be as feasible with WR2 Jayden Higgins out for the season with an ACL (though I did like the addition of Kayshon Boutte).
But then let’s consider the drawbacks of this new situation: (i) Houston was 18th in the NFL in red zone attempts per game (how many times they got into the red zone each game) while Detroit ranked 6th, so it’s not like this is a high-flying offense with extensive goalline opportunities up for grabs (as it was in Detroit), (ii) while Monty will eat up more touches, the coaching staff and beat reporters have made it clear that Woody Marks is still a big part of this backfield, especially in the passing game (see here and here), and (iii) while gamescripts favour a heavy rushing attack, how much production will that really result in when Monty posted a career low rushing total in 2025 while running behind an OLine in Detroit that’s MUCH better than what the Houston Texans currently have:
I don’t know about you guys, but this is starting to look a lot like the situation Monty had in Detroit but without the upside of a high scoring offense and a top 5 OLine. It’s now a middle-of-the-pack scoring offense with a bottom 5 OLine, which matters a lot more for a less explosive back that relies on redzone work and good blocking to deliver in fantasy. Monty isn’t a bad pick once you get into the Rhamondre Stevenson range, but taking him before D’Andre Swift, Bucky Irving, Jadarian Price, and Bhayshul Tuten seems a little absurd to me when you consider the upside of those guys. I’m comfortable with Monty near the end of the 5th round, but any earlier than that and you can count me out.
Player to Fade In Round Five
Terry McLaurin: Washington Commanders (WR): Sleeper ADP: Pick 5.06
I was going to go with Quinshon Judkins for this fade pick (Browns RB, ADP Pick 5.01), but the argument against him is essentially the same argument as we had against David Montgomery (with more explosiveness than Monty but less TD upside than Monty). So instead we’re going with Scary Terry here, a historical WR2/3 who’s been consistent for the majority of his career (until recently).
Terry was the best WR in the NFL from his rookie year (2019) to his fifth season (2023) when it came to getting you borderline WR2 production with an average of around 10-12 FPPG. The guy was as consistent as they come, going for: (i) 11.6 FPPG in 2019 (WR27), (ii) 12.0 FPPG in 2020 (WR20), (iii) 10.3 FPPG in 2021 (WR34), (iv) 11.2 FPPG in 2022 (WR22), and (v) 10.0 FPPG in 2023 (WR35). And the best part about Terry: he rarely got hurt, as he only missed three games over his first five NFL seasons. He was never a sexy pick in fantasy (mostly because the Commanders offense was pretty dogshit as a whole during that stretch), but you could always rely on him to fill in that flex spot while remaining available throughout the season. And then – 2024 happened.
Terry gets united with a rookie Jayden Daniels and the rocket ship takes off. He posts career highs in overall fantasy finish (WR6), FPPG (13.3), and rank in FPPG (WR15). The guy was an absolute animal, playing another 17-game season while only posting less than 11.4 fantasy points in four matchups. Expectations were high entering 2025, but a lengthy holdout kept him at around WR17 off the board (based on 2025 ADP). The holdout, combined with a lack of health from Jayden Daniels, resulted in McLaurin’s worst season as a pro, as he missed seven games with injury and could only muster 9.5 FPPG when healthy (WR35). Yikes.
So now, we enter 2026 with a soon-to-be 31 year old McLaurin who has 107 career games and 7 NFL seasons under his belt. While the holdout last year may have contributed to his inability to stay healthy, that amount of wear-and-tear for an older guy has to be catching up to him. And while Jayden Daniels appears to be healthy and a full-go to start the season, we have concerns over his ability to stay on the field with his propensity to run the football despite his frail frame. Oh, and did I mention that the Commanders lost their All-Pro LT Laremy Tunsil to what could be a season-ending injury? It’s no wonder beat reporters and analysts alike are worried for how this offense will perform as a whole:
The issue with Terry going as the WR23 off the board comes down to that. If this offensive line is a bottom 5 unit, it hurts McLaurin two-fold: (i) a lack of protection for Daniels will lead him to scramble more or get sacked more, leading to a higher potential for injury (which would be a notable downgrade to McLaurin’s production), and (ii) the lack of protection from the OLine hurts Terry’s role as the downfield pass-catcher, as he was quite reliant on the deepball in his best season (2024) and Daniels won’t have the time to allow Terry’s routes to develop. On top of that, the Commanders are now relying on a first-time playcaller (David Blough) who’s implementing a new offensive system. He could be great, he could be terrible – I don’t really know. Regardless, it will take this offense some time to adjust to a new scheme.
And that’s not even considering the fact that McLaurin has the most target competition he’s ever had in his career. I get Stefon Diggs isn’t what he was when he was on the Bills, but the guy still had 1,000 receiving yards last year as the Patriots #1 pass-catcher. And while newly-acquired TE Chig Okonkwo hasn’t had crazy production to this point of his NFL career, he was playing on the dreaded Titans and he’s undoubtedly a better athlete than the corpse of Zach Ertz (who was the Commanders TE the past two seasons). That’s not even mentioning rookie WR Antonio Williams (71st overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft) and sophomore WR Jaylin Lane (128th overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft) vying for snaps.
So McLaurin: (i) has a lot of wear-and-tear at an age where WRs start to fall off the cliff, (ii) is reliant on a QB who has not proven himself capable of staying away from dangerous hits/situations, (iii) needs a halfway decent OLine to keep said QB healthy and to allow for McLaurin’s most productive routes to develop, (iv) is adjusting to a new scheme with a play-caller that doesn’t have any previous experience, and (v) faces the toughest target competition he’s encountered in the last several years. Yea, if you need a WR for your squad in the 5th round, I’d rather take Davante Adams, Jameson Williams, Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, or Parker Washington (all going behind McLaurin in ADP).
Player to Fade In Round Six
Carnell Tate: Tennessee Titans (WR): Sleeper ADP: Pick 6.08
We round things out with the 4th overall pick from the 2026 NFL Draft: Mr. Carnell Tate. The man was undoubtedly talented coming out of Ohio State (aka Wide Receiver U), though opinions among draft analysts varied as to who was more talented between him and 8th overall pick Jordyn Tyson (drafted by the Saints). I’d say that initial returns have shown that the Titans made the right decision by taking Tate first (injuries were the only real concern with Tyson, and he’s currently on the IR to start his first NFL season). However, I just really can’t come around to taking Tate as the WR30 off the board for a few different reasons.
The first reason is the new play-caller. In comes OC Brian Daboll (former Head Coach for the Giants) to call plays for former 1st overall pick Cam Ward in his sophomore season, with many people getting excited due to Daboll’s past success with developing Josh Allen in Buffalo all those years ago (combined with the production he got out of a rookie Jaxson Dart last year). I do not share the same excitement, as a deeper look at Daboll’s tendencies reveals that there could be some spotty results coming for this Titans passing offense.
Fantasy Points Data has one of the best QB efficiency stats in the game with adjusted net yards per attempts (ANY/A), which basically just means regular yards per pass attempt which is then adjusted for sacks, TDs, and interceptions (giving a more holistic view of a QBs efficiency/performance). Fantasy analyst Ryan Heath has looked into this closely in the case of Daboll, and what he found might surprise a lot of people who laude the former Head Coach for his proficiency when calling plays:
That’s quite the difference between Daboll and other playcallers for those two QBs, and it’s not like Dart rated very good in this stat last year with a 4.43 ANY/A mark. In an overall sense, Daboll has facilitated poor passing efficiency with three different QBs who have shown the gumption to be starters in the NFL. So while it’s possible Ward takes a step forward this year leading to better production for Tate, I’m not exactly betting my house on that happening.
It’s not even just that though. We’ve still got some target competition from the forgotten Calvin Ridley, along with sophomore WRs Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. But the one I’m most worried about is Daboll’s favourite, slot WR Wandale Robinson who followed his former Head Coach over to TEN in Free Agency. With how piss-poor this OLine is (31st in consensus ranks), I’m really starting to see how Wandale could be the target & reception leader for this offense due to his average depth of target being so low. If Ward doesn’t have time to get the ball out, he’s assuredly going to take the more underneath looks that Wandale will provide while Tate is trying to get upfield. If you’re telling me I need to take the second WR for an offense as bad as Tennessee’s in the 6th round of drafts, I’m gonna tell you to kick rocks.
Tate’s TD upside is limited due to how bad this offense is projected to be (by both analysts and Vegas, as the books have the Titans with the 8th lowest implied points per game total). His target/reception upside is limited due to the Titans porous OLine, Wandale, questions about Cam Ward’s accuracy, and Brian Daboll. Even the number of opportunities he’ll have to run a route is limited due to the projection that this offense won’t be able to stay on the field for extended drives. All of that adds up to me fading Tate. Though I’m not exactly a fan of the WRs going right after Tate (Metcalf, Marv, BTJ, Sutton), I love going either RB (Jaylen Warren or Rhamondre Stevenson), TE (Laporta or Kraft), or QB (Jalen Hurts) in the 6th. After that, you can take the shot on later WRs I like such as Chris Godwin, Alec Pierce, Jayden Reed, and Quentin Johnston (in that order). Maybe Malik Nabers said it best.
Leave a Reply