Well, just because there’s a little break in the March Madness action, doesn’t mean we have to lose our love for laying some action. This is about the time of the year where I start going all-in on NHL coverage, with 10-15 games left before we get to the gruelling NHL playoffs. Past March Madness, it’s hard to find a more entertaining stretch of sports than the first round of the NHL playoffs.
So, in preparation for that stretch of hockey, I am starting a series of articles here that go into the analytics for betting NHL player props. And I am focusing on one prop in particular: Overs on player’s SOG.
My methodology is simple in finding the edge on certain lines, and being a decent-to-mid level hockey player who started at the age of four does help with some of this analysis.
I know from my experience in hockey that certain teams have styles (such as the Hurricanes) that prevent the other team from getting off shots. Then you have the more open, free-flowing teams that may allow more shots against (see Detroit or Boston, both top 10 in shots allowed this year). Then, you have the shitbirds that allow a bunch of shots because they’re overmatched by their opponents (see San Jose, allowing the most shots in the league).
But this doesn’t just go for defences. It can go for offences as well. Some teams love to dump-and-chase frequently, while others like to retain possession and have time in the offensive zone on the exterior. Some teams use their d-men more in the o-zone as an outlet to get shots from the point, while some teams like the low cycle to open things up in that area. All of these differences can affect the shot volume a given team has, and it’s our goal to find the teams that are the most prolific at getting that rubber on twine to maximise our chances.
Okay, so we have to: (1) focus on teams that give up the most shots, and (2) focus on teams playing those teams that get the most shots. Easy enough. What then? Well, there are two things: (1) recent sample size for the player’s SOG, and (2) a player’s average shots per game (SPG) on the year. This blends how well the player has been doing lately with their performance on the season, and each are important to formulating the bet.
I have eliminated all games for tonight that do not fit my formula. The formula is as follows:
- Find teams that are top 15 in SOG allowed
- Find teams playing these teams that are top 15 in SOG (some exceptions are made here)
- Look at those teams and find players with consistent SOG numbers
- Find the lines that have the most value for those players
I have begun below with a table showing the analysis that went into these picks. Those bets that look good to me have been highlighted in yellow for your reference, and the locks have been highlighted in blue, but you can still use the table to find any other edges you might like. Under the table is the analysis for each of the highlighted bets.
*Team SOGF: How many shots the player’s team has on the season, and their rank
*Team OSOGA: How many shots the player’s team has allowed on the season, and their rank
*Last 3 (# SOG): The average shots on goal from this player over their last three games
*Last 5 (# SOG): The average shots on goal from this player over their last five games
*SPG AVG: The average shots on goal from this player over the year
| Team | Player | Line | Team SOGF* | Team OSOGA* | Last 3(# SOG)* | Last 5 (# SOG)* | SPG AVG* |
| COL | MacKinnon | Over 4.5(-140) | 1786(6th) | 1713 (7th) | 5.67 SPG | 5.3 SPG | 4.89 SPG |
| COL | Rantanen | Over 3.5(-125) | “ | “ | 4.0 SPG | 4.0 SPG | 3.38 SPG |
| COL | Makar | Over 3.5 (+130) | “ | “ | 3.0 SPG | 2.6 SPG | 3.03 SPG |
| CAR | Guentzel | Over 3.5(+130) | 1872(1st) | 1678(11th) | 3.33 SPG | 3.2 SPG | 3.62 SPG |
| CAR | Skjei | Over 2.5 (+110) | “ | “ | 3.33 SPG | 3.2 SPG | 2.26 SPG |
| CAR | Necas | Over 2.5(-170) | “ | “ | 3.0 SPG | 3.2 SPG | 2.97 SPG |
| DAL | Hintz | Over 2.5(+110) | 1782(7th) | 1906(1st) | 3.0 SPG | 3.0 SPG | 2.29 SPG |
| FLA | Montour | Over 2.5(-120) | 1760 (9th) | 1710 (8th) | 2.0 SPG | 2.8 SPG | 2.6 SPG |
| FLA | Reinhart | Over 2.5(-130) | “ | “ | 2.67 SPG | 3.2 SPG | 2.73 SPG |
| FLA | Verhaeghe | Over 2.5 (-140) | “ | “ | 2.0 SPG | 2.6 SPG | 3.19 SPG |
| NSH | Zucker | Over 2.5(+120) | 1704 (15th) | 1683(10th) | 3.67 SPG | 3.5 SPG | 2.16 SPG |
| NSH | Forsberg | Over 3.5(-150) | “ | “ | 4.0 SPG | 3.8 SPG | 4.05 SPG |
| NSH | Josi | Over 3.5(+100) | “ | “ | 3.33 SPG | 3.4 SPG | 3.21 SPG |
| NSH | Barrie | Over 1.5(-150) | “ | “ | 2.33 SPG | 2.25 SPG | 1.56 SPG |
| CGY | Coleman | Over 2.5(+100) | 1675(19th) | 1858(4th) | 2.67 SPG | 3.2 SPG | 2.4 SPG |
| CGY | Kadri | Over 3.5(+100) | “ | “ | 3.67 SPG | 4.6 SPG | 3.28 SPG |
| CBJ | Werenski | Over 3.5(-110) | 1681(17th) | 1688(9th) | 5.33 SPG | 4.8 SPG | 2.93 SPG |
| CBJ | Marchenko | Over 2.5(+120) | “ | “ | 2.33 SPG | 2.2 SPG | 2.43 SPG |
| VGK | Eichel | Over 3.5(-130) | 1720(13th) | 1666(13th) | 6.0 SPG | 6.2 SPG | 4.35 SPG |
| VGK | Theodore | Over 2.5(+110) | “ | “ | 3.0 SPG | 2.0 SPG | 2.31 SPG |
Game 1: Colorado Avalanche vs Montreal Canadiens
Picks:
MacKinnon Over 4.5 SOG -140 (1u)
Rantanen Over 3.5 SOG -125 (1u)
Oh yeah, we are going big-game hunting starting with these studs. The lines are favoured prices, but we still want this action when considering the teams and the track record.
Colorado slings the puck on the net at a high rate, ranking 6th in the league in shots on goal. Montreal lets their goalie get pelted at close to the same rate, ranking 7th in shots on goal allowed.
Here are MacDaddy’s last five games and his shot totals: 6, 8, 3, 6, 3. The guy loves to rip the puck. Add to it the fact that Nate the Great averages 4.89 SPG on the season, and I was ready to take any line they offered over 4.5. Here it is, so hammer it.
Then we move on to Rantanen’s last five games and shot totals: 4, 3, 5, 3, 5. The guy is consistent, and he hits this line more often than he doesn’t based on recent performance. His SPG is also very close to this line at 3.38 SPG. With Montreal’s propensity to allow shots, this one should cash as well.
Game 2: Carolina Hurricanes vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Picks:
Guentzel Over 3.5 SOG +130 (1u)
Skjei Over 2.5 SOG +110 (0.5u)
Guentzey has been putting up the shots ever since he got to Carolina. He’s played right around this line in his last four games, getting 3, 4, 3, and 4 shots respectively. This correlates with his season average of 3.62 SPG. So we have a consistent shot-getter, with an average on the season that is higher than this line, facing a team that gives up the 11th most shots on goal? AT PLUS MONEY?! Sign me up.
Skjei-daddy wouldn’t be a popular pick for most, but you look at his last five games and this man has a scope trained on the net: 4, 3, 3, 2, and 4 shots on goal in those five. So only one time over that period has he not hit this line. Say no more, I’m in.
Game 3: Dallas Stars vs San Jose Sharks
Picks:
Hintz Over 2.5 SOG +110 (1u)
I love watching Hintzy play. Big, physical Center with sick mitts and a slick snapper. And Dallas has an absolute gift staring them in the mouth here, facing a San Jose team that has given up the most shots against in the NHL on the season.
It’s only natural then to take this stud to hit the line. Hintz has hit this line in three of his last five games, going for 4, 3, 2, 2, and 4 shots in that period. He’s consistent, he gets to play a shit team, and it’s plus money. Sick joke, give me this one.
Game 4: Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins
Picks:
Reinhart Over 2.5 SOG -130 (2u) – LOCK
Montour Over 2.5 SOG -120 (1u)
For everyone that thinks Boston is this lockdown defensive presence, the team’s shots allowed on the season would not be indicative of that. While they may be decent at preventing high-danger shots, the shots still flow, as they give up the 8th most shots in the NHL.
Of course Florida puts up a lot of shots (9th in the league), and two big pieces to this are Montour and Reinhart.
Everyone knows the story with Reinhart: Breakout year, hits 50 goals, certified stud. But I wonder why he’s getting so many goals. Could it be because he is shooting more? While he doesn’t shoot a ton, his average is still 2.73 SPG on the year, and he hasn’t put up below two shots on goal in his last five. I’m calling this one my first lock of the day at O 2.5 SOG.
Montour has become the Panther’s defacto shooter from the blueline. Sure, the guy might have put up a dud in his last outing with only one shot. His four games before that? 3, 2, 4, and 4 shots on goal. Montour sends it, and his 2.6 SPG average on the year proves this.
Both of these guys average more SPG than their shot totals here, and they are facing a team that gives up more shots on the season than Arizona or Anaheim. Add in the fact that both lines are close to pick em’ prices, and you suckered me in.
Game 5: Nashville Predators vs Vegas Golden Knights
Nashville Picks:
Zucker Over 2.5 SOG +120 (2u) – LOCK
Barrie Over 1.5 SOG -150 (1u)
Vegas Picks:
Eichel Over 3.5 SOG -130 (2u) – LOCK
Vegas plays a pretty open game, and Nashville puts up more shots than you’d think at 15th in the league. But it’s recent performance that is most indicative of these two picks for Nashville.
Zucker has recently found his way to the Music City after a midseason trade. His four shot totals in his last four games: 3, 5, 3, and 3. Not bad, hey? So he hit this line in all four of his previous games. And it’s plus money. And Vegas is top 10 in shots allowed on the season. Lock it up and throw away the key.
The same goes for Barrie, who has 2, 3, 2, and 2 shots in his last four. Barrie even averages 1.56 SPG on the season, higher than his line here.
Two guys that have gone over these shot totals in each of their last four games is too good to pass up.
On the Vegas side, Nashville gives up the 13th most shots in the league, and Eichel pumps the tendy with rubber more than almost anyone in the league. His last five games shot totals: 8, 7, 3, 8, and 5. Absurd. And it’s close to pick em’ prices on Over 3.5? Lock, lock, lock it up.
Game 6: Calgary Flames vs Chicago Blackhawks
Picks:
Coleman Over 2.5 SOG +100 (2u) – LOCK
Kadri Over 3.5 SOG +100 (1u)
Calgary isn’t amazing at getting the biscuit on net, ranking 19th in shots for. This action is more about attacking the defence of the Blackhawks, who allow the 4th most shots in the NHL on the season.
If you’re looking at the shot breakdowns for the Flames, there are two big pieces of the pie consistently: Coleman and Kadri.
Coleman has had a career year, and his shot totals may be a reason he is putting the puck in the net at a rate even he thought would be impossible. He averages 2.4 SPG over the full season. And sure, in his last game, he was rendered ineffective, only getting one shot on net. His four games before that? 3, 4, 3, and 5 shots respectively. Lately, more often than not, Coleman is hitting this line. And now he gets to feast on Chi-town.
Then we get to Kadri, a guy in almost everyone’s top five most hated players. But the man shoots. Averaging 3.28 SPG on the year, and having totals of 4, 5, 7, and 5 in four of his last five games, the consistency is something you dream about as a bettor. And I, for one, am a man that follows my dreams. Lock it in.
Game 7: Columbus Blue Jackets vs Arizona Coyotes
Picks:
Werenski Over 3.5 SOG -110 (0.5u)
Columbus may be the most irrelevant team in the league. Just average-to-bad hockey over each and every year and a mid fanbase. The only man worth watching on this team right now, IMO, is Werenski.
And Werenski has begun to show that he may be all their offence has, in addition to all their defence has. The guy has been ripping the puck on net, putting up some gaudy totals like the 6 SOG two games ago, or the 8 SOG three games ago. The stud d-man averages 2.93 SPG.
Arizona will let you shoot on them, allowing the 9th most shots this year. Expect Werenski to be slingin’ them from the point early and often, as their may not be much else this team can do offensively.
Well that’s it folks. I will be posting an article soon for more of these picks, as well as picks in most, if not every, game on Day One and Day Two of the Sweet Sixteen in March Madness. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Locks
Reinhart Over 2.5 SOG -130 (2u) – LOCK
Zucker Over 2.5 SOG +120 (2u) – LOCK
Eichel Over 3.5 SOG -130 (2u) – LOCK
Coleman Over 2.5 SOG +100 (2u) – LOCK
Confident
MacKinnon Over 4.5 SOG -140 (1u)
Rantanen Over 3.5 SOG -125 (1u)
Guentzel Over 3.5 SOG +130 (1u)
Hintz Over 2.5 SOG +110 (1u)
Montour Over 2.5 SOG -120 (1u)
Barrie Over 1.5 SOG -150 (1u)
Kadri Over 3.5 SOG +100 (1u)
Moderate
Skjei Over 2.5 SOG +110 (0.5u)
Werenski Over 3.5 SOG -110 (0.5u)