*I will be putting a summary at the end that groups picks into two categories if you want to know my confidence levels with certain bets (for those of you not wanting to play the whole card with me). It will correlate with the units I put beside each pick (so for example, a confident lean will be games I bet 1.0 units on, and a marginal lean is games I bet 0.5 units on).
It’s HEREEEEEE! The Madness is beginning and the games are officially kicking off. But there isn’t any rest for those of us trying to rob the sportsbooks with sharp plays, so I’ve prepared my bets for Day Two of the Tournament already.
Again, like I had said in my previous article, I bet March Madness a little differently than I do during the regular season or Conference Tournaments. My units will be smaller, as I will be attacking the board with volume where I find edges based on a number of criteria.
With this volume betting strategy, there will be some losses, but the goal is to have around a 60-70% hit rate to keep the profits incoming. I am 8-3 on NCAAB bets since I have begun sharing my picks, so let’s hulk-smash these lines.
Game 1: Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic (FAU), 10:15 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -2.5 FAU, O/U 142.0
Pick: Northwestern Team Over 69.5 (1.0 units)
If we look at Northwestern’s last five games, there are two opponents with similar KP efficiency ranks to FAU. FAU is 16th ranked in KenPom offensive efficiency and 109th in defensive. Northwestern faced off against Minnesota (49th KenPom offensive efficiency and 128th defensively) and Iowa (15th KenPom offensive efficiency and 153rd defensively). Northwestern’s two team totals from these games: 90 and 80 points respectively. In the other three games of their last five, Northwestern has averaged under 60 ppg. But those three opponents had top 50 defences in KenPom efficiency.
On top of all that, FAU hasn’t held a team under this Team Total line in their last six games, where teams like Tulane (91st in KP offensive efficiency) and Temple (245th in KP offensive efficiency) both put up 73. Northwestern is ranked 30th in KP offensive efficiency. This should hit quite easily.
Game 2: Colgate vs Baylor, 10:40 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -13.5 Baylor, O/U 138.5
Pick: Baylor Team Under 76.5 (1.0 units)
A little sneaky Team Under here against the tooth-cleaners.
Two factors play into this bet: 1) Colgate is one of the slowest teams pace-wise, ranking 325th in the Country in possessions per game, and 2) Colgate’s opponent’s three point percentage is one of the lowest in the league (11th at 29.9%).
Baylor is actually quite slow in terms of pace as well, landing at 221st in the Country in possessions per game. Baylor also loves to jack up threes, ranking in the top 75 in the Country in three point makes per game. Putting these two numbers up against Colgate’s numbers …. You see why I’m betting the Team Under.
On top of all that, Baylor hasn’t exceeded this Team Total in their last three games. Now sure, that was against better defensive opponents when compared to Colgate, but the pace, coupled with the three-point defence of Colgate, should keep Baylor from putting up 77 or more.
Game 3: UAB vs San Diego State, 11:45 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -7.0 SD State, O/U 139.5
Pick: SD State Team Over 73.5 (1.0 units)
This one is a pretty easy one for me.
SD State has a proper defence, ranking 9th in KenPom defensive efficiency, and the offence isn’t too shabby either at 62nd. Meanwhile, UAB can put up the points (59th in KP offensive efficiency) but has trouble stopping the buckets from falling (202nd in KP defensive efficiency).
Let’s take a look at SD State’s team total in three of their last four games: 86 (against Utah State, ranked 68th in KP defensive efficiency), 74 (against UNLV, ranked 92nd in KP defensive efficiency), and 72 (against Boise State, ranked 29th in KP defensive efficiency) So SD State is right around this total, or over the total, in three of their last four against much better defensive teams. Seems easy to me.
But there’s more. In UAB’s last five games, they have allowed 83 to South Florida (96th in KP offensive efficiency) and 72 to Temple (245th in KP offensive efficiency). Even decent to bad offences can score in bunches on this team. Add in the fact that UAB is in the top half of the Country in possessions per game, and I am feeling this Team Over.
Game 4: Western Kentucky vs Marquette, 12:00 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -14.5 Marquette, O/U 158.5
Pick: Western Kentucky +14.5 (1.0 units)
I’m not one to take spreads this wide, but how can you be confident in this spread on the Marquette side unless you know Tyler Kolek (absolute stud) is playing at 100%? Even then…. Western Kentucky is actually pretty decent. They play really fast, ranking 3rd in the Country in possessions per game. They average 80.6 ppg (31st in the Country), but it’s actually their defence that’s higher ranked on the KenPom efficiency list at 103rd. I’m not saying they are going to win this game, but I could easily see a world where this is a close game throughout.
Marquette winning by 15 is plausible, but unlikely based on recent performance. I know that was without Kolek, and there was plenty of good competition they were up against (including UConn twice in their last five games). Still, you can’t tell me these guys look like world-beaters. And while I expect them to win, I can’t see them covering this huge line, especially with Kolek likely still feeling the effects of that oblique.
Game 5: New Mexico vs Clemson, 1:10 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -2 New Mexico, O/U 152.0
Pick: New Mexico -2 (1.0 units)
We are riding with the Lobos here. New Mexico is hot, hot, hot coming into this game. Their three last wins are against impressive teams with good resumes: San Diego State (21 in KenPom), Colorado State (38 in KenPom), and Boise State (39 in KenPom). All three of these teams are (or were, in Boise State’s case) in the Tournament. This is a good team, riding high with the momentum, ready to make a splash this year.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Clemson has been ice cold. Losing to Boston College 76-55, a team that did not make the Tournament at 75th in KenPom, is just plain bad. The loss to Wake right before that was a little better, but how can they compete with a New Mexico team that just ran through the gauntlet in their Conference Tournament and came through unscathed? They just can’t. Hit it.
Game 6: Yale vs Auburn, 2:15 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -12.5 Auburn, O/U 141.0
Pick: Auburn -12.5 (1.0 units)
I have no clue how Marquette can be favoured by more points than Auburn is in this spot. Do people really think that just because Princeton shocked the world last year against Arizona that another Ivy League school will do it this year? This game is not close to me, and Auburn has shown an ability lately to blow teams right out of the water.
I mean…. look at some of these recent wins for Auburn:
- 86-67 win against Florida (29 in KenPom)
- 86-55 win against South Carolina (49 in KenPom)
- 101-74 win against Missouri (150 in KenPom)
They bring the hammer when they’re rolling. And they won’t even have to be rolling at full speed to bring the hammer here. Yale’s metrics are decent (89th in KP offensive efficiency, 90th in KP defensive efficiency), but let’s take a recent sample size of their work. They’ve played Brown in two of their last three games. Brown is 185 in the KenPom rankings. Brown is not very good. Yale lost to Brown in overtime the first game, and beat them by 1 point the second game. Putting Yale against Auburn is a recipe for a blowout right now. Let’s take advantage of it.
Game 7: Texas A&M vs Nebraska, 4:50 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1 Nebraska, O/U 147.0
Pick: Over 147.0 (1.0 units)
This one is pretty simple as well.
Both these teams have been putting up points. In Texas A&M’s last four games, they have scored 90, 97, 80, and 86. Now sure, that wasn’t against teams known for their defence, but it was still decent competition in Florida, Kentucky, and Ole Miss.
Meanwhile, Nebraska fills the bucket as well, scoring 87, 93, and 85 in their last three games. And if you just look at the box scores, their defence has looked great, holding Indiana to 66 and Michigan to 70. But Indiana is ranked 106 in KP offensive efficiency and Michigan is 93rd in KP offensive efficiency. How about when Nebraska plays top 40 KP offensive efficiency teams? Well, they gave up 93 to Illinois (3rd in KP offensive efficiency), and 78 to Ohio State (37 in KP offensive efficiency). Guess where Texas A&M is ranked in KP offensive efficiency? You got it, top 40 at 31st.
Both these teams should get after it, as the pace should be about average, and the scoring should come in bunches.
Game 8: Vermont vs Duke, 5:10 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -12 Duke, O/U 132.0
Pick: Duke -12 (0.5 units)
I hate betting on Duke. Why do I do this to myself? Honestly, the only reason why is because Vermont is so bad (sorry Vermont Fans, love your logo).
In Vermont’s last five games, they’ve won all five. But they had a close game with UMass Lowell. UMass is 153 on KenPom. They also had two close games with New Hampshire. New Hampshire is 245 in KenPom. Lastly, a close game against Albany. Albany is 244 in KenPom. These teams are all bad, and they are hanging with this Vermont team.
And sure, Duke is coming off two losses. To NC State (58 in KenPom and on a heater) and UNC (9 in KenPom and a 1 seed). Before that? They beat NC State by 15 and Virginia by 25. This is so easily forgotten after they got bounced from the Conference Tournament early, but I’m sure the rest they got didn’t hurt going into this game on Friday. They should destroy this Vermont team and I’m expecting a statement.
Game 9: Charleston vs Alabama, 5:35 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -9.5 Alabama, O/U 173.5
Pick: Alabama Team Over 91.5 (0.5 units)
I have not been afraid of high team total overs for two teams in this Tournament: Kentucky and Bama. That is because they’re both top 5 offences in the country, if not top 3. They also both don’t play defence, so they have to score a ton to avoid upsets. And this game with Charleston lines up to be a shootout with the projected pace.
Now everyone knows this Alabama offence. Three-and-key philosophy where they get shots up early in the clock and try to outscore/outrun their opponents. Defence is optional. I mean, in 7 of their last 8 games, they haven’t put up less than 87 points, and this was against top 150 KP defensive efficiency teams.
Charleston is outside the top 150 KP defensive efficiency ranks at 176th. They also push a good pace, ranking 119th in the Country in possessions per game. This all adds up to a fast paced game with a lot of scoring, but I trust Alabama more to hit their shots and crank the volume against this decent Charleston squad.
Well that’s it for the second day everyone. Let’s keep the momentum rolling through to the weekend.
I will be posting an article soon for picks in most, if not every, game on Day Three of the Tournament. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Confident
Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic (FAU), 10:15 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -2.5 FAU, O/U 142.0
Pick: Northwestern Team Over 69.5 (1.0 units)
Colgate vs Baylor, 10:40 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -13.5 Baylor, O/U 138.5
Pick: Baylor Team Under 76.5 (1.0 units)
UAB vs San Diego State, 11:45 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -7.0 SD State, O/U 139.5
Pick: SD State Team Over 73.5 (1.0 units)
Western Kentucky vs Marquette, 12:00 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -14.5 Marquette, O/U 158.5
Pick: Western Kentucky +14.5 (1.0 units)
New Mexico vs Clemson, 1:10 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -2 New Mexico, O/U 152.0
Pick: New Mexico -2 (1.0 units)
Yale vs Auburn, 2:15 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -12.5 Auburn, O/U 141.0
Pick: Auburn -12.5 (1.0 units)
Texas A&M vs Nebraska, 4:50 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1 Nebraska, O/U 147.0
Pick: Over 147.0 (1.0 units)
Moderate Lean
Vermont vs Duke, 5:10 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -12 Duke, O/U 132.0
Pick: Duke -12 (0.5 units)
Charleston vs Alabama, 5:35 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -9.5 Alabama, O/U 173.5
Pick: Alabama Team Over 91.5 (0.5 units)