After a Wild Card Weekend slate that delivered on expectations (and then some), we move on to the Divisional Round with four games and eight teams in another win-or-go-home scenario. I doubt these games could live up to the first four games we had last weekend, where Josh Allen put the team on his back (much like Greg Jennings did – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1P0yfq2wDvU), Caleb turned into Superman in the 4th quarter, and Jauan Jennings dimed up a filthy Eagles defence. Oh, and did I forget to mention Stafford, the guy who battled through a notable finger injury to put up 34 on the Panthers heads, culminating in a comeback drive that ended with a piss-missile to Colby Parkinson. I’ll forgive the last two games for being one-sided affairs after all that action to start things off.
So how is this Divisional Round slate going to play out? Can Hailee Steinfeld’s husband and the injured Bills defy the odds yet again against a Denver team coming off a week of R & R (I guess it’s not defying the odds when the moneyline is pretty much a pick ’em, but you catch my drift). Will Kyle Shanahan show why he’s a future HOF’er, innovating with some nasty play designs against a Seattle defence that might be the scariest in the League (HOU and SEA are 1a and 1b for me). How about Drake Maye? Could it be another “I told you so” moment for Patriots fans after twitter trolls were referring to Maye as “The Schedule” throughout the season. Everything is on the table, and it all comes to a close on Sunday night in an intriguing matchup between the Bears and the Rams.
That matchup will be the focus of our article, as we’ll run through the unit matchups (offence vs defence for each team) and end things off with a few props that look good based on the analysis.
We’re going to be posting articles like this weekly on X (for as long as the Rams’ playoff run continues), so follow us there is you want easier access to the content:
Without further ado, let’s get to the game.
Game: Los Angeles Rams (13-5) @ Chicago Bears (12-6) – Sunday, 6:30 PM EST
Notable LAR Injuries:
- OT Rob Havenstein (IR)
- CB Akhello Witherspoon (IR)
- OG Kevin Dotson (Returning from injury per McVay)
- TE Terrance Ferguson (Returning from injury)
Notable CHI injuries:
- OT Ozzy Trapillo (IR)
- LB TJ Edwards (IR)
- DE Dayo Odeyingbo (IR)
- DY Shemar Turner (IR)
- WR Rome Odunze (Questionable, but he’s playing)
Projected Temperature:
- Per rotowire.com: “It’s expected to be 20° F with a 16% chance of precipitation. Partly cloudy skies and very cold temperatures are expected for Sunday night’s game at Soldier Field. Some very light snow is possible. Moderate winds will blow from sideline to sideline. Ball security will be an issue in the frigid conditions.”
Game Lines:
- Rams -3.5, 48.5 O/U
The Rams have pretty much gotten back to full health aside from the loss of outside CB Akhello Witherspoon last week. With Kevin Dotson likely back on the interior of the OLine, things should be even better when it comes to pass protection and the run game (though the Rams didn’t struggle too much without him in the lineup vs the Panthers). It’s also another week for nickel CB Quentin Lake to get his feet back under him after making his first appearance since Week 11 in the Wild Card round. That can only help this struggling Rams pass defence. On the other side of things, the Bears look pretty damn healthy as well, making for a best-on-best matchup that could go either way. Lastly – the weather. That 20 degree chill is a far cry from the conditions the Rams usually play in (and I can’t get on X without hearing about how bad Stafford is when the weather gets this cold). But guess what? When it’s the Divisional Round and you have a shot to get to the Conference Championship, if you can’t handle the cold, you don’t deserve to be there. I think Bears DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson said it best earlier this week when it came to the weather:
So, with that in mind, let’s get to the Rams offence vs the Bears defence.
Los Angeles Rams Offence vs Chicago Bears Defence
The common theme with this whole section can be summed up in one sentence: The Rams will have to light up this Bears defence if they want a chance to win this one. And based on all of the analysis I’m about to set out, I believe that should be the case. So let’s start with the most important aspect of the Rams offence in this one: the run game.
As amazing as Stafford is, and as important as the pass game is to the Rams offensive success, it all really starts on the ground (a cliche, but evidently true with this team). The run game is the foundation to everything else the Rams like to employ in their scheme, whether that be play-action bootlegs, under center quick hitters, or chip-and-release plays to the Tight Ends. And while the Rams had 140 rush yards as a team last week, they only went for 4.0 yards per carry, showing some lack of efficiency when you compare that to their season-long mark of 4.6 yards per carry (Top 10 in the NFL). Corum and Kyren seemed steady and reliable, but neither of them had a 10+ yard run against the Panthers last week. On top of that, their yards-after-contact marks weren’t great (1.85 YAC/attempt for Kyren, 2.36 for Corum), indicating that the backs didn’t want to sacrifice ball security in an attempt to gain more yardage after getting popped. In my mind, that’s a good thing, and the same plan should be employed this week with fumbling becoming a bigger concern in the frigid weather (especially for Kyren).
That all being said – the run game will get a major boost with Kevin Dotson returning to the lineup. On PFF, Dotson has the highest run blocking grade out of all Rams OLinemen (89.3), performing almost equally as well when it comes to gap run designs (more Kyren) and zone run designs (more Corum). His replacement last week, OG Justin Dedich, is still an above average run blocker; but he’s nowhere near the quality of Dotson. Following last week, the Rams OLine is now tops in the League when it comes to yards before contact per RB rush (2.0), and they don’t often allow negative run plays, coming in with the 5th lowest rush stuff rate. If it was up to me, I’d be calling for more gap/duo/man run designs right down the pipe against this Bear defence, where the Rams can take advantage of Dotson’s strength and pick on the less talented Bears DLine defenders (Edges Montez Sweat and Austin Booker had better run defending grades this year than any of their DTs).
And this Bears run defence – leaves a lot to be desired. They may have held Josh Jacobs to a paltry rushing total of 55 yards on 19 attempts in the Wild Card Round, but there’s some context needed there: (i) Jacobs still looked significantly less nimble than usual due to his nagging knee injury, (ii) the Packers two best OLinemen, Center Elgton Jenkins and LT Zach Tom, were on the shelf for the Wild Card game, making way for the rest of the OLine who only had one player graded as above average when it came to run blocking, and (iii) Lafleur’s playcalling was very predictable and stale, allowing the Bears to jump all over any run called (specifically in the second half). It’s not like this Bears defence magically got better following the regular season: they gave up over 100 rush yards per game to RBs from Week 1 to Week 18, allowing 3 of the last 4 RB rooms they faced to exceed 120 rushing yards (ironically, this included the Packers RBs going for 122 in Week 16).
Their best run defender, LB Tremaine Edmunds, is still running at full steam. But aside from him, I have yet to see anyone in the Bears front seven that should provide any concern for the Rams. The only scary part: they are tied for 11th in forced fumbles this year (12), and they just forced 4 fumbles against the Packers last week (but notably didn’t recover any of them). That’s the only way I see this Bears defence holding up in the run: forcing turnovers so that the Rams stop going to the well. If Kyren can hang onto that ball (that’s a big if, I know), we should see a game where the Rams run the ball at least 25+ times at over 4 yards per carry. That should help the pass game get on track, leading to some steady offensive drives.
About that pass game: what a gutsy effort from Stafford last week. To begin the game, the guy was on an absolute heater, leading the Rams down the field en route to two Puka Nacua scores with seemingly no resistance coming from the Panthers secondary. Then – he crushed his index finger (on his throwing hand) on DJ Wonnum’s forearm. He acted like it was no big deal, but then he proceeded to miss easy look after easy look, going 0-7 on completions for a portion of that game. The good news: he seemed to bounce right back after that stretch, leading the Rams to two more touchdown drives in the second half and finishing with a line of 304 passing yards and 3 passing TDs. Rams fans should soak in every performance like this, as it’s no guarantee they’ll ever have a QB with this combination of talent, IQ, and toughness.
Another piece of good news: this Bears defence is very similar to Carolina when it comes to pressuring the QB. Carolina had the 2nd lowest pressure rate in the NFL through the season (16.5%); Bears had the 11th lowest (21.1%). While CHI’s ability to pressure the QB may look better on paper, it’s important to look at how much each of those teams blitzed the QB: Carolina blitzed 125 times (22.1% blitz rate); Bears blitzed 154 times (25.8% blitz rate). So, I think it’s safe to say that more blitzing from the Bears contributed to a higher pressure rate (at least to some extent). This matters, because if the Bears want to blitz more (to get sustained pressure), they’re going to have to do so against a QB who had a 125.4 passer rating and 29 TD/3 INT against the blitz in 2025 (for reference, if you only counted Stafford’s 29 TD’s against the blitz, he’d still be Top 8 in TDs for QBs this year).
So, my guess is Bears DC Dennis Allen is going to hold off on blitzing Stafford in this one. If that’s the case, expect a lot of time in the pocket for the Rams QB. The Rams OLine had the 4th lowest pressure rate allowed this year (32.2%), which actually dropped to the 3rd lowest when considering no blitz pressure rate allowed (29.5%). Further, returning OG Kevin Dotson might not be the best Rams OLinemen in pass protection (67.7 pass blocking grade, 4th on the team), but he’s sure as hell a better pass blocker than his replacement (Dedich is last on the team with a 40.0 pass blocking grade). Meanwhile, the Bears will have to rely on Gervon Dexter, Montez Sweat, and Austin Booker to get home (when none of those guys ranked in the Top 20 in pass-rush win rate for their respective positions). Should be easy pickings for the Rams frontline.
Lastly – how the WRs should perform against this CHI secondary. The scary part? Chicago led the NFL this year with 23 interceptions as a team. The not so scary part? The Bears play man coverage at a Top 10 rate this year (29.1% of the time), and with Puka and Davante’s route running capabilities, they should be able to take advantage. It’s fair to note that the Bears have a decent secondary with Kyler Gordon back in the slot and Jaylon Johnson manning the outside, but they got lit up pretty bad by the Packers WRs last week (a group of WRs that isn’t even close in skill level to the Rams duo). Further, their stud LB Tremaine Edmunds is one of the lower graded coverage LBs in the NFL (out of qualified LBs), leaving smaller safeties likely to match up against the outstanding trio of Rams TEs (Higbee, Parkinson, and Ferguson, who’s just returning to the lineup this week). I expect fireworks.
All-in-all, I expect the Rams to move the ball without issue against this CHI defence. They start with the run, where I hope Kyren and Corum can keep things consistent with chunk 6-7 yard gains (it should be there, especially for Kyren on gap runs on the inside). Then, I’d expect the pass game to start operating at a high level, where we should see more of Davante and the TEs with how this Bears scheme/personnel plays out. Stafford may get sacked one or twice, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that. Overall – even with the snow and cold conditions – I can’t see a world where this offence doesn’t put 3+ TDs on the board.
Chicago Bears Offence vs Los Angeles Rams Defence
Wow – even as a fan of any other team in the NFL, you can’t help but marvel at what Caleb Williams and the Bears offence pulled off last week in their huge comeback W. That offence looked left for dead in the first half (as they have at many points this season), getting dominated by a defence that lost its most valuable asset (Micah Parsons). The run game was relatively shut down, Caleb had a completion percentage that would make JJ McCarthy blush, and Ben Johnson’s 4th down magic was nowhere to be found. Then – Caleb hit the pass:
And just like that, the offence was buzzing. Let’s start with the less scary aspect of the game for this Rams defence: the run game.
I’ve really come to appreciate how the Bears have run the ball this year. Through the Regular Season, they were 3rd in the NFL in rush yards per game (144.5) to go along with 3rd in yards per attempt (4.9). The two-pronged attack of DeAndre Swift and Kyle Monangai has given opposing defences nightmares throughout the season, and that’s not even touching on the OLine’s success.
About that OLine – they rank 3rd in yards before contact per RB rush (1.8, just behind the Rams) and are Top 10 when it comes to RB rush stuff rate (14.0%). Really, the Rams and the Bears are almost identical when it comes to the run game, with both having sturdy OLines to go along with one bruiser (Monagai, Kyren) and one scatback (Swift, Corum). The only real difference: while McVay likes to vary between zone run schemes and man/gap run schemes, Ben Johnson likes to go primarily with zone runs (both Monangai and Swift had 2x more zone runs this year than gap runs). While that may be helpful to some extent (Rams are pretty damn beefy in the middle of the defence, making gap runs more difficult), we saw how this played out last week when the Rams took on Carolina (Panthers had 14 zone runs and 4 gap runs: RBs proceeded to put up 55 rush yards on 18 carries). It’s not like the Bears run game really got going last week against the Packers, with Monangai and Swift combining for 81 rush yards on 21 attempts.
And I got some news for you: the Rams rush defence is even better than the Packers. The Rams are (i) 3rd in PFF rush defence grade as a team, (ii) Top 10 when it comes to rush yards allowed before contact (1.1), and (iii) in the top half of the NFL when it comes to EPA/rush (-0.04). They were definitely better to start the year, but things are rounding back into form with DT Poona Ford leading the way. Even if the Bears stick to a lot of outside zone (which I think they will), the Rams have speed across the outside, starting with guys like Jared Verse and Byron Young on the line and Safety Kam Curl in the secondary (you know, the guy who had the 2nd highest PFF run grade of all Safeties over 300 snaps this year).
I’d be really surprised if the Bears got things going on the ground this week, as even with the Rams defence struggling lately, the run defence doesn’t seem to be in question. The bigger issue will be the Bears pass game, as we’ve seen this Rams secondary slowly devolve as we’ve gotten further into the season.
That Bears passing game … it’s truly scary. Ben Johnson wasted no time in importing his most creative concepts into this offence, resulting in one of the more balanced passing attacks that we saw this season. You lose Odunze to a fractured foot? Boom, Luther Burden is there to step right in and become that alpha WR, lining up all over the formation (and producing over 60 receiving yards per game over the back half of the year after only averaging 24.4 receiving yards through the first half of the season). But Burden wasn’t the only one to pick up his game as the season wore on, as the true breakout of this team has to be first-round TE Colston Loveland. After starting the season off slow (didn’t exceed 40 receiving yards in any of his first six games), he’s gone on to produce at an unprecedented clip, specifically as this team has transitioned into playoff action (94 receiving yards vs SF in Week 17, 91 receiving yards vs DET in Week 18, and 137 receiving yards vs GB last week). He’s immediately become one of the better TEs in the League, and makes way for a passing attack that truly has 4 viable options (and that’s not even including Swift and his receiving capabilities).
And the man who leads the way from under center – Caleb Williams. After a rookie season that was marred by inconsistency and disappointment, the guy has turned into a true gamebreaker in his sophomore campaign. While his consistency on a play-to-play basis may still be in question (lowest completion % in the NFL for QBs with more than 400 attempts, next worst is Cam Ward), that doesn’t tell the whole story. The guy takes chances, looking to make the big play even when the defence doesn’t necessarily give him the look to do so. And even if he may be a tad inaccurate, he’s one of the better QBs at looking after the ball when targeting his pass-catchers (over a 3 TD/1 INT ratio is no joke). There’s a reason this team has repeatedly come back in the second half of games – Caleb leads the charge with intense passion, and his team follows suit. Whether that be through the air, or on the ground through some effective scrambling (8th out of all QBs in rushing yards with 383 this year). The only real glaring weakness from Caleb? His propensity to fumble the ball, as he lost 9 fumbles this year (tied for 4th worst of all QBs).
While Caleb has obviously made improvements to his own game since last year, maybe the bigger impact has been the improvement to this Bears OLine. The additions on the interior of C Drew Dalman, OG Joe Thuney, and OG Jonah Williams cannot be understated, as all three guys have graded out as above average pass blockers on the year. Those guys, along with All-Pro RT Darnell Wright, led this line to rank in the Top 10 when it comes to pressure rate allowed even with Caleb having the highest time-to-throw figure in the NFL (holds the ball for 3.3 seconds on average per pass attempt). They lost their emerging rookie LT Ozzy Trapillo recently, but second-stringers Theo Benedet (who I think will be starting) and Braxton Jones (who I think will be the backup) still have enough juice to make this engine go.
And they’re going to have to be at the top of their game with these Rams pass-rushers screaming off the edge, as things could get real messy if that’s not the case. It’ll be interesting to see how the Rams employ mismatches here, as even though the aforementioned backup OTs are decent, one of Byron Young/Jared Verse is going to have the advantage when lining up across from them. Based on usage throughout the season, it looks like it’s going to be more BY lined up against Wright, and more Verse lined up against Benedet/Jones. While BY has had the more productive season when it came to sacks (13 on the year), Verse was the clear leader when it came to generating overall pressure (80 pressures compared to BY’s 64). Last week (when Carolina’s starting LT got hurt early in the game), Verse ended up having a pressure on almost ¼ of his snaps. In this game, I would expect the same, and that’s not even touching on the interior where Kobie Turner (6 pressures last week), Braden Fiske (4 pressures and 1 sack last week), and Poona Ford (3 pressures and 1 sack last week) will give Dalman and Co. a run for their money.
But when facing a QB as mobile and slippery as Caleb, it won’t just be about generating pressures – these DLinemen have to convert and cage rush like their life depends on it. If not, Williams is going to do one of two things: (i) scramble for backbreaking yardage when the coverage does somehow hold up (as Bryce Young did last week with 24 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD), or (ii) escape the pocket and have ample time to find pass-catchers downfield, where the Rams secondary could face some serious issues. After losing outside CB Akhello Witherspoon last week, it looks like it’s going to be a heavy dose of CBs Cobie Durant and Emmanuel Forbes on the outside, with Quentin Lake featured heavily as the nickel corner. And while this group really started off hot, it’s been a bad stretch over the back-half of the year.
Yea, that ain’t great, and things didn’t look all that much better last week even with Quentin Lake back in the lineup (he had the lowest PFF coverage grade on the team last week, allowing a team-high 8 receptions for 94 yards). This could be a serious concern if Lake doesn’t round back into form quickly, and the chances of that happening aren’t exactly high. All told, I think Caleb has at least 250+ passing yards with 2+ total TD’s, making for a shootout in the frozen tundra that is Soldier Field.
In an overall analysis of this game, it’s hard not to see both passing attacks finding success. I think both teams will employ a heavy dose of the run game early, where the Rams should have the advantage in overall success rate. But then the real fun will start, with both teams employing heavy play-action usage and utilizing different skill sets to move the ball downfield (Caleb through scrambling/creating time to throw from outside the pocket; Stafford with designed bootlegs and quick hitters). If you’re looking for a strong defensive game – this isn’t the one for you. I’d expect the Rams DLine to have the pressure advantage, but the Bears ability to create takeaways could flip the field on multiple occasions. End of the day, this one could go either way in a close, exciting state of affairs: Rams 30, Bears 27.
Betting Props
- Kyren Williams Over 60.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
- Chicago Bears Rushing Total Under 126.5 Yards (-120)
- Davante Adams Over 55.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
- DeAndre Swift Over 12.5 Yards Receiving (-110)