We roll into Super Wild Card Weekend with a packed slate and some titillating matchups, making for the most exciting football weekend of the year. Almost every game is projected to be close, with the premier matchups being obvious: Josh Allen tries to will a depleted Bills team to a win over a blossoming Trevor Lawrence squad with Coach of Year candidate Liam Coen at the helm; Purdy and the surging 49ers offence will try to get past an Eagles defence masterminded by one of the true genius DC’s in the NFL (Vic Fangio), making for a true strength (SF offence) vs strength (PHI defence) matchup; and Packers vs Bears – a rivalry as old as time. How could you not be amped for this action?
And starting it all off on Saturday afternoon – it’s Rams vs Panthers. Though the Rams kind of stumbled into the postseason with lacklustre performances across the last month, this season has been nothing short of a “great success” (credit: Borat) from the standpoint of a fan. Back in September, if you would have told me they would end up 12-5 after a preseason marred with Stafford back injury news and a lack of depth at significant positions, I would have been more than excited. And if you would have followed that up by telling me they just need to beat the Panthers to get into the Divisional Round, I would have made them my Super Bowl favourite. But alas, this Panther’s team has shown they can rise to any challenge (often winning the games they’re projected to lose). So while the point spread may indicate the Rams are a shoe-in, it’s “Any Given Sunday” (or Saturday, I guess) in the NFL and we have to look deeper into the matchup to see what’s going to happen.
That’ll be the focus of our article, as we’ll run through the matchups (offence vs defence for each team) and end things off with a few props that look good based on the analysis.
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Without further ado, let’s get to the game.
Game: Los Angeles Rams (12-5) @ Carolina Panthers (8-9) – Saturday, 4:30 PM EST
Notable LAR Injuries:
- OG Kevin Dotson (Out)
- OT Rob Havenstein (IR)
- TE Terrance Ferguson (Questionable, LP Thurs, true question to play)
- WR Jordan Whittington (Out)
- S Quentin Lake (Returning from IR)
Notable CAR injuries:
- OG Robert Hunt (Likely to return from IR)
- TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (IR)
- LB Trevin Wallace (IR)
Projected Temperature:
- Per rotowire.com: “Light rain is expected throughout Saturday afternoon’s NFC Wild Card game at Bank of America Stadium. Moderate winds with strong gusts blowing from sideline to sideline will make passing and kicking difficult, especially in the wet conditions.”
Game Lines:
- Rams -10.5, 46.5 O/U
The Rams and Panthers have some of the best interior OLinemen in the NFL going in opposite directions this week when it comes to injury. The Panthers should have Robert Hunt back to solidify their front line after only appearing in two games this season, which should be a positive to them in both the run game and the pass game. On the flip side, the Rams are going to be without Kevin Dotson for another week, leaving Justin Dedich in to pick up the slack. Nevertheless, these teams appear pretty healthy going into this game, so let’s get into how the Rams offence will stack up against this Panthers defence.
Los Angeles Rams Offence vs Carolina Panthers Defence
Well – this should be interesting. It was Week 13 the last time these two teams matched up in the confines of Bank of America Stadium on a rain-soaked field. And Matt Stafford had one of his worst games of the year. If we’re just looking at PFF – the Rams had a 55.8 passing grade in that game – their lowest passing grade of the year next to the 68.0 passing grade they put up against PHI in Week 3. Stafford finished the game with a respectable 243 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, but his 3 turnovers (2 interceptions and 1 fumble lost, including a pick in the red zone and a pick-six) were back-breakers. Stafford did go on to bounce back, throwing for 1,634 yards and 14 TDs with 4 interceptions over his last 5 games, but the conditions of this game paired with the CAR secondary make me nervous.
The thing is: it really should be an easy day for Stafford as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over. Stafford is 2nd in the NFL in passing grade against zone coverage this year, and Carolina is 1st in the NFL in zone coverage rate. I’ve heard some points about Stafford having his worst output against Cover 3 this year (which the Panthers play – a lot), but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue considering he’ll have all day to throw. After all, the Panthers have the 2nd lowest pressure percentage (16.5%) and total pressures (93) in the NFL this year (shout out to the Jets for being just behind them). Even with Dedich filling in for Dotson at Right Guard, McVay should be able to scheme things up to help Dedich (who’s notably poor in pass protection) take on the only threat the Panthers have in the pass-rush (Derrick Brown). If the rest of the Rams OLine pass protects at even an average level, and Stafford doesn’t get too impatient with pushing the ball downfield, he should be able to dink-and-dunk his way to a win. The weather here dictates a shorter average-depth-of-target, and Kyren has been good as a receiver lately (74 receiving yards and 9 receptions in his last 3 games). On top of that, there’s always Puka screen plays (4th in the NFL in screen yardage) and rollout TE designs where Stafford can get easy completions to maintain reasonable down-and-distances. And did I forget: the Red Zone weapon of all weapons, Davante Adams, is back to convert TDs once the Rams get inside the 5-yard line. Take the easy stuff Staff – until they adjust to take away the easy stuff where you can then burn them deep with Adams/Puka.
All told – I expect a lot of Puka in this one (no duh, as he has the most receiving yards in the NFL against zone coverage this year) sprinkled in with some RB dumpoffs & TE chip-and-releases with play-action and under-center-play being pretty prevalent.
But where the Rams should really win this game is with a commitment to the run game. Letting Stafford run the show and throw the ball all over the yard is tempting; but it isn’t as easy as running the ball down the Panthers’ throats on repeat. When you have a team that’s top 5 in RB grading and run block grading, things can get mighty simple in windy, wet matchups. Every single Rams OLineman grades out as above average when it comes to run blocking (even Dedich comes through with a 70.8 run blocking grade on the season), and there’s a reason that the Rams are top 5 in yards before contact per rush and rush stuff rate: the guys up front are maulers, and McVay’s switch to more of a gap-heavy run scheme with lots of duo has paid dividends with these road graders leading the way. Corum ended the season a little banged up, but I’d expect him to continue to rotate into an RB committee that’s combined for close to 2,000 rush yards this year (Kyren with 1,252, Corum with 746).
And aside from All Pro DT Derrick Brown – this Panthers team doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to stopping the run. They aren’t the worst rush defence in the NFL by any stretch. But over the season, they did give up the 8th most rush yards per game at 106.4. They started the season off hot, holding 5 of the 7 RB rooms they faced under 100 rush yards. The last 10 RB rooms they faced? All but one put up 100+ rush yards (including the Rams RBs combining for 153 rush yards and 7.7 yards per carry in the Week 13 matchup). This includes recent performances, such as giving up 161 rush yards to SEA RBs in Week 17, coupled with a combined 223 rush yards to a struggling Bucs rushing attack in Weeks 16 and 18. The Seahawks and the Bucs are both in the bottom half of the League when it comes to yards before contact per rush and rush stuff rate – so you can see where the Rams can really dominate this defence.
The Panthers are likely going to try to bring the tempo of this game down and run clock as much as they can on offence, limiting the number of plays the Rams can run (as they did in Week 13, when the Rams had 52 total snaps, their 2nd lowest mark of the year). I’d expect around 50-60 snaps this week, and if 30-35 of those snaps aren’t run plays, I’ll be quite disappointed in the gameplan the Rams put together. As many great football minds have once said: Run the damn ball. I’d expect a big one from Kyren come Saturday.
Carolina Panthers Offence vs Los Angeles Rams Defence
We start things off on the other side of the ball with a look at how this Carolina offence can get things going against a struggling, yet suddenly healthy, Rams defence.
Man, this Carolina offence has been anything but consistent as an overall unit this year. They went on an absolute heater running the ball to start the year, but the passing game was lacking to a pretty significant extent. Then things shifted, with Dowdle at 3.2 yards per carry over the last 8 games and Bryce Young lighting defences up near the end of the year (168.2 pass yards per game in their first 9 games; 213.9 pass yards per game over their last 7 games). If I had to guess, the Panthers would likely be leaning on Bryce Young to get it done through the air in this one, but that seems unlikely given the weather conditions along with the Panthers wanting to drain clock to keep the Rams offence off the field.
The big key as always: Rams getting pressure on the QB. The Panthers OLine has been alright, but not great, when it comes to blocking for Young. They’re 21st in pressure rate allowed, 21st in no blitz pressure rate allowed, and 17th in PFF pass blocking grade. The unit actually has pretty good grading across the board when it comes to pass blocking, but Bryce Young is tied for the 8th most pressures faced out of all qualifying QBs. Most of this has to do with Young holding the ball a little long and getting into trouble (only 3 of his 27 sacks this year came when he held the ball under 2.5 seconds), which indicates that if the coverage is good, the Rams should convert on sacks.
Well, lucky for the Rams, they have their best player in the secondary back in this one. Quentin Lake just got activated off of IR, and the do-it-all nickel defender will finally be able to get back on the gridiron. I couldn’t be more happy that the Rams extended him for another 3 years last week (he was a pending free agent), as you just have to look at the numbers to see how much of an impact he has on this defence:
He was legitimately the only Rams defender consistently injured during their worst stretch, and now he’s at full health in the biggest game of the year. When looking at the outside CBs, Emmanuel Forbes has been a revelation at times this year, but that Week 13 game vs CAR was one of his lowest spots. He gave up the game-winning explosive pass play, along with a few other easy conversions. He’s going to have to be better in this one, and I hope DC Chris Shula does a better job of protecting him by limiting one-on-one coverages. If the secondary holds up, look out for Jared Verse (8 sacks, 80 total pressures), Byron Young (13 sacks, 64 total pressures), Braden Fiske (3 sacks, 42 total pressures), and the conductor himself, Kobie Turner (8 sacks, 55 total pressures), as they will be making a lot of noise in the CAR backfield.
And if the Panthers want to run in this one – good luck. Not saying they aren’t a decent rushing unit, but you saw in the point above how Dowdle performed over the back half of the year. They still have Chuba Hubbard of course, but he’s only had 10+ carries in one game since Week 8 (surprisingly, that was in the Week 13 matchup with the Rams). Compare that to Rico, who had over 14 rush attempts/game (on average) since Week 8, and it’s clear that Rico seems to be their guy. But he’s just not performing well, despite the fact that the Panthers OLine is Top 10 in yards before contact per rush and rush stuff rate. If I’m looking into my crystal ball, I’m guessing it’s 10-15 carries for Rico and 5-10 carries for Chuba, but I can’t see either of them being over 4 yards per carry.
The reason being: this Rams defence is still one of the most dominant rush defences in the League. I mean sure, Bijan lit them up pretty good in Week 17 and Kenneth Walker had quite the day in Week 16. But any defence can get dominated by Bijan, and KWalk’s stats are heavily aided by a 55 yarder he broke off when the Rams were caught sleeping. I expect this unit to bounce back, as ILB Landman is still tied for 6th among LBs with 36 run stops, and DT Poona Ford is 3rd in the NFL in run stop % among DT’s that played over 200 snaps. That’s not even mentioning Safety Kam Curl, who has the 4th highest PFF rush defence grade among qualifying Safeties.
With the Rams averaging around 89 rush yards per game allowed to opposing RBs this season, I can’t see the Panthers RBs getting to 100. If that’s the case, they’re going to have to win the game on Bryce Young’s arm. Though this did happen in Week 13, I wouldn’t expect it to happen again.
All told, I see the Rams getting this one done in a tough road game. Kyren goes for some good yardage on the ground, Stafford has a high completion percentage with efficient play and a low ADOT, and Puka brings in 8+ receptions. Carolina gets stuffed at the line more than a few times by this stout Rams front, and Bryce has limited success in the passing game while dealing with heavy pressure when his first read’s taken away. Final score: Rams 24 – Panthers 13.
Betting Props
- Kyren Williams Over 78.5 Yards Rushing + Receiving (-115)
- Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (+105)
- Rico Dowdle Under 64.5 Yards Rushing + Receiving (-115)
- Bryce Young 1+ Interception (-115)