And we’re on to Week 3 friends. Last week was a good reminder that everything is still taking shape in the football landscape, as we saw some defences turn things around after previously looking like straight ass (looking at you Bills) and some prestigious defences look like they’re starting to lose a step (ahem, Steelers). The same goes for offences, where some offensive units quieted doubts that they might be left for dead (Lions), and some units are who we thought they were to start the year (Jets). Now, this can all change as the weeks go on, as the NFL is a pretty volatile beast when considering all the variables that go into a game. But the fact remains that the more data we get, the more we start to really see what these teams are about.
So now, we get to the Week 3 player matchups that have me eyeing specific betting lines on the market. Last week was a little tough, but things will get better based on how we picked things up last year.
No bullshit here – every betting line is verified and everything is tracked @betstamp if you guys want to follow me there (username: PlusMoneyJ).
2025 Season Record: 3-6 (-3.1 units)
So, without further ado, let’s get to the board.
Game 1: Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 PM EST
Notable HOU Injuries:
- N/A
Notable JAX injuries:
- OG Ezra Cleveland (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
Best Bet: Travis Etienne Over 72.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) – Betway – 1.15 Units
We’re starting our slate with an inter-divisional game between the (surprisingly) 0-2 Texans and the 1-1 Jaguars. Both of these teams feel like they left something on the table last week with close losses in the closing moments of games they were leading, with the Jags loss being the most demoralizing loss of the season so far for any team.
Well – this game we’re targeting the left-for-dead Etienne, a guy who’s shown flashes of excellence early this season while maintaining a stranglehold on the JAX RB workload. While Rookie RB Tuten got in on the action last week vs CIN (16 touches for Etienne vs 10 touches for Tuten), the production doesn’t lie (107 scrimmage yards for Etienne vs 74 scrimmage yards for Tuten). And that’s not even getting into Etienne’s scrimmage yards in Week 1 vs CAR (156 scrimmage yards). The guy is on a tear, and this JAX OLine seems to be tightening up in the run game (2nd in the NFL in PFF run blocking grade).
But I know what you’re thinking: Etienne has gotten some cake matchups thus far through the year, going against the CAR and CIN defences. Well, why don’t you take a look at how those defences stacked up against the other opponents they’ve faced this year:
- CIN Defence Week 1 vs CLE: 40 rush yards allowed to RBs on 21 attempts
- CAR Defence Week 2 vs ARI: 48 rush yards allowed to RBs on 14 attempts
It’s a limited sample, but those defences don’t look like complete ass against the run. Meanwhile, we have the HOU defence as the matchup in this one, a team that just allowed both TB RBs to go for 65 rush yards and gave up 121 scrimmage yards to Bucky Irving. And that was with two missing starting OLinemen for the Bucs.
HOU held up in the run game against the Rams to start the year, but the Rams run game didn’t look great against TEN either. Meanwhile, this JAX RB utilization is right in the new play-caller Liam Coen’s wheelhouse when looking at what he did with TB’s RBs last year (4th in rush yards per game for 2024).
This game should be relatively close, as I don’t expect the Texans to blow up the Jags with how bad their offence has looked through two games – which means a pretty neutral gamescript that should make it easy for JAX RBs to accrue touches. Further, the HOU secondary is stacked, with CB Stingley being one of the best in the league, so JAX WRs might find it tough to get going. In that kind of situation, what would a smart playcaller like Coen do? Use the RBs of course, specifically his 1A in Etienne.
It’s all right there – smash Etienne in this spot.
Game 2: Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns – 1 PM EST
Notable GB Injuries:
- OT Zach Tom (Questionable, LPs all week, true question to play)
- TE Tucker Kraft (Questionable, DNP Fri, leaning to not playing)
- WR Jayden Reed (Out)
Notable CLE injuries:
- DT Mike Hall (Out)
Best Bet: Matthew Golden Over 19.5 Yards Longest Reception (+100) – Bet99 – 1 Unit
I know what you’re thinking with this one: why on earth would you take a player for his longest reception when the guy only has 4 targets on the season and a measly 12 receiving yards? Well – it’s because of the usage and the opening that’s come up with an unfortunate injury to GB WR Jayden Reed. Let me explain.
It’s fair to note Golden’s lackadaisical production thus far through the year. But here’s four points for you to consider: (i) his ADOT (average depth of target) is 4th among WRs in the League who have more than one target (22.75 ADOT), (ii) he ran the fastest 40 out of WRs at the draft (4.29), (iii) Golden leads the NFL in separation score, and (iv) this guy increased his snap percentage by 10% and his routes run by 10 routes with the injury to Reed early last game. Reed was the guy known to get those deep shots from Love, and with him gone, Golden is the de facto deep threat in this offence.
It’s normal for rookies to get eased into action as the season starts – and this GB WR room is notorious for featuring 4 different WR1’s the way Love spreads the ball around. But even last week, you could see a concerted effort to get Golden going on some deep shots. He had two clear deep balls where he blazed past his defender and was wide-open with nothing but turf in front of him. The only issue was – Love missed him. It’s going to happen, but I expect with another week of chemistry-building here, you’ll see them connect on at least one.
And if an opposing QB has any sort of time to get the throw off – this CLE defence will give up the big one. They didn’t do so as much against Burrow and CIN in Week 1 (though Chase did have a 20 yard long reception with only 2 receptions), but that’s because CIN’s OLine didn’t give him enough time for a longshot to develop. It was a different story against BAL and Lamar last week, where 3 BAL WRs had 19+ yard long receptions in a game they handily won (a gamescript that reduced the need to throw).
It’s not like the CLE secondary just magically got better at defending the deep ball over one offseason (CLE was the worst in the League last year when it came to pass yards allowed per completion with 11.4). They could have improved somewhat – but with their elite run-stopping game (kept King Henry contained last week, and Chase Brown the week before that), it’s clear where you can beat this CLE defence and where GB will find success on offence.
Take the shot with me folks – I have a feeling this week that everything comes together.
Game 3: Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots – 1 PM EST
Notable PIT Injuries:
- S Deshon Elliott (Out)
- DT Derrick Harmon (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- LB Alex Highsmith (Out)
- CB Joey Porter (Out)
Notable NE injuries:
- N/A
Best Bet: Stefon Diggs Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – Bet365 – 1.1 Units
The Drake Maye believers took a bit of a victory lap last week with Maye looking very solid on his way to a productive outing (230 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 31 rush yards, 1 rush TD). But if you were looking for a WR1 in this offence – you’d be left wondering who it could be. WR Kayshon Boutte went off in Week 1 to the tune of over 100 receiving yards, but last week, no NE WR had more than Stefon Diggs with 32 receiving yards. Not all that encouraging – but a lot of people are forgetting some context for this situation.
It was always going to be a bit of a ramp-up to start the season with Diggs. I mean, the guy had ACL surgery in Week 9 of last year (October), so the fact that he’s on the field now running as seamlessly as he is at the ripe age of 31 is impressive in its own right. But you can understand the caution from NE. 42% of snaps in Week 1, and 52% of snaps in Week 2. His slot snap percentage caught my eye too: 22% of snaps from the slot Week 1, and 55% of snaps from the slot Week 2. All told – the guy has 10 receptions for 89 receiving yards on less than 60% of team snaps thus far. Pretty solid.
But it’s not just the production we’re looking at here – it’s the targets. 12 targets leads this NE team through 2 weeks. And with Diggs only getting healthier as we get further into the season, this is a spot where I expect him to log at least 60-65% of the offensive snaps and 7-8 targets.
And this PIT defence – is not who we thought they were. What was once a vaunted matchup for any opposing offence now seems to be a feast for opposing #1 WRs on a weekly basis. In Week 1, it was Garrett Wilson and the Jets going for 7 receptions for 95 yards. In Week 2, it was both SEA WRs going off (JSN for 8 receptions and 103 yards, Kupp with 7 receptions and 90 yards). The key thing to look at here: look at Wilson and Kupp’s usage from the slot:
- Garrett Wilson: most slot snaps on the team (12), 45% slot usage
- Cooper Kupp: most slot snaps on the team (14), 48% slot usage
Now, Stefon Diggs last week: most slot snaps on the team (11), 55% slot usage.
You see what I’m getting at here? Not only is Diggs the target and receptions leader on NE, but he’s also (i) projected to see more usage in Week 3, (ii) operating out of slot more, and (iii) set up to go against PIT’s slot CB leader Jalen Ramsey, who appears to have lost a step out there.
This one takes a bit of projection, but Diggs has already handed in a 57 receiving yard performance this year, and this NE defence hasn’t shown me enough (47 points allowed in 2 games) to think the Patriots will be leading the whole game and won’t have to throw it. Lock it in.
Game 4: Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans – 1 PM EST
Notable IND Injuries:
- TE Tyler Warren (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
Notable TEN injuries:
- CB Jarvis Brownlee (Questionable, DNP Fri, unlikely to play)
- CB La’Jarius Snead (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- DT T’Vondre Sweat (Out)
- S Kevin Winston (Doubtful, LPs all week, unlikely to play)
Best Bet: Michael Pittman Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Coolbet – 1.14 Units
While the PIT secondary has an issue in the slot – TEN’s secondary has their issue on the outside.
The Titan’s two outside CBs are Snead and Jarvis Brownlee, with McCreary manning the slot. So far, Snead and Brownlee have 48.4 and 61 PFF coverage grades through the season (both below average), and now both are coming into this one banged up with LPs/DNPs throughout a week of practice.
If we just look at how TEN has done against opposing outside WRs – you start to get the picture. In Week 1, it was Courland Sutton (similar in build and usage to Pittman) that led DEN WRs with 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 61 receiving yards. In Week 2, it was Davante Adams that led LAR WRs with 12 targets and 106 receiving yards. This week – it’s Michael Pittman for the Colts, who has had a great start to the year after being severely limited last year with a back injury he was playing through.
I mean, it wasn’t that long ago that Michael Pittman had 109 receptions for over 1,150 receiving yards in a season (2023). And this year, Pittman has had 80 receiving yards vs MIA Week 1, and 40 receiving yards vs DEN Week 2 (while matched up against reigning DPOY CB Pat Surtain, mind you). But just look at this usage compared to the guys (Sutton and Adams) that lit up TEN these past two weeks:
- Pittman: 68% wide alignment snap percentage
- Adams Week 2: 75% wide alignment snap percentage
- Sutton Week 1: 83% wide alignment snap percentage
That really makes you think that Pittman will be close to the 80 yard mark he posted in Week 1 as opposed to the 40 yard mark he posted in Week 2 vs the best CB in the NFL. And now – stud Rookie TE Tyler Warren is a bit banged up, and Pittman’s line is at 43.5 yards???? Make it make sense.
The only thing that I can think of is that the gamescript might not be too good here for the passing attack, as IND should be leading most of the game. Well – two things: (i) that didn’t matter in Week 1 when IND destroyed MIA 33-8 and Pittman had 6 receptions for 80 yards, and (ii) aside from the RJ Harvey breakaway run in Week 1, the TEN defence has been relatively solid against RBs (held Dobbins to 63 rush yards on 16 attempts Week 1, and Kyren Williams to 66 rush yards on 17 attempts Week 2).
I know we’re still trying to figure out if Daniel Jones (aka Indiana Jones) will keep slinging it as good as he has been the first two weeks of the season. But with how solid this IND OLine is in pass protection, the weakness of TEN at outside CB, Pittman’s resurgence, and TEN’s propensity to stop the run – this is the clear play here.
Game 5: New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1 PM EST
Notable NYJ Injuries:
- S Tony Adams (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- CB Michael Carter (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- DE Jermaine Johnson (Out)
Notable TB injuries:
- OT Tristan Wirfs (Out)
- OG Cody Mauch (IR)
- OT Luke Goedeke (IR)
- WR Emeka Egbuka (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
- WR Chris Godwin (Out)
Best Bet: Sterling Shepard Over TBD Receiving Yards (TBD) – Book – Unit*
*I’m guessing this line hasn’t been posted because of the questions surrounding Egbuka – even if he plays, this is still a prime play for me and I’d be comfortable taking it wherever the line settles.
Wow – now that is a laundry list of injuries for the Bucs coming into this one. You know you’re in trouble when your 3 best OLineman are out, but that’s not even getting started with the key injuries they have at WR.
And the NYJ are quite lucky this is the case for the Bucs, as they have been anything but impressive this year on defence. They’ve allowed the 8th most rush yards per game (138.5) through two weeks and have let up over 30 points in both games. Nonetheless – I’m fearful to go with Bucky Irving in this spot due to both the OLine injuries and his insanely high line (99.5 rushing + receiving line).
So where else can we look when it comes to this NYJ defence? Well, I wouldn’t put my stock in opposing outside WR1’s, as CB Sauce Gardner (86.8 PFF coverage grade – 2nd in the NFL for CBs that have played 50% of snaps or more) has done a pretty good job of locking them up (Keon Coleman 3 receptions for 26 yards Week 2, DK Metcalf 4 receptions for 83 yards Week 1 (with 67 RAC yards, not something Mike Evans excels at)). But if you look at the 2nd pass-catching options (primarily playing in the slot) on opposing offences over these two weeks, the results are more encouraging:
- WR Calvin Austin Week 1: led PIT WRs in slot snaps, 4 receptions for 70 yards
- TE Dalton Kincaid Week 2: led BUF pass-catchers in slot snaps, 4 receptions for 37 yards
Those aren’t eye popping numbers, but the fact remains that the more advantageous matchup appears to be the #2 pass-catching option.
Meanwhile, Sterling Shepard has kind of been the glue guy holding this TB WR core together during Godwin’s absence. He ran 75% of the snaps last week (prior week was still good at 64%), he’s taken the most WR slot snaps for TB (40), and he’s had 34+ receiving yards and 3+ receptions in both games he’s played thus far.
With his line being as minimal as it’s projected to be (consensus line on betting pros is 22.5 receiving yards), along with his low depth of target (11.2 yards, acting as a safety valve for when the pressure comes against Baker with the Bucs missing OLinemen), and Egbuka somewhat banged up – this one’s a smash.
Game 6: Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers – 1 PM EST
Notable ATL Injuries:
- CB A.J. Terrell (Out)
Notable CAR injuries:
- LB Patrick Jones (Out)
- DT Tershawn Wharton (Out)
Best Bet: Tyler Allgeier Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-105) – Sports Interaction – 1.05 Units
I had a couple different looks lined up for this game (Bijan and/or Tet McMillan) – but there are two issues there: (i) Bijan’s line is up to over 80 rushing yards and 105 rushing + receiving yards when CAR’s defence held James Conner to 34 rush yards and 52 scrimmage yards last week, and (ii) even with AJ Terrell out, it will be hard for Tet to get the volume needed to hit his lines when ATL is leading the NFL in T.O.P (time of possession) with 35:52 per game. So, where do we go?
Well – we go back to the trusty RB2 in ATL who seems to be taking advantage of ATL’s absurd time of possession. In Week 1, Allgeier had 10 rush attempts in a neutral gamescript vs TB. In Week 2, Allgeier had 16 rush attempts in a slightly advantageous gamescript against MIN. If you take a look at things this week, ATL is a 5 point favourite over CAR (with a lot more upside to be leading the whole game). Does that seem like it’s going to be anything but a slightly advantageous gamescript to you?
It seems to me like ATL has an offensive gameplan catered to every defense they play. The first week, there was a tad bit less rushing as TB’s run defence is pretty damn good (5th least rush yards per game given up this year, and 3rd least rush yards per game given up last year). In Week 2, they switch to a more run heavy approach because that’s the only way you can beat the Vikings (5th least pass yards per game given up this year). Now, they’re facing the CAR Panthers, who may’ve been somewhat solid against the run vs ARI last week, but have 27 rush attempts against per game thus far (showing this is the way teams want to beat them, and giving an indication that they provide a run-positive gamescript).
I definitely think it’s possible that Michael Penix can get some stuff going early against the Panthers, but that just makes things better, as they should get some points up on the board early to make the gamescript even better for Allgeier (specifically with this ATL defence looking much better and CAR’s injuries with 2 starting OLinemen Out). It’s either that, or ATL just comes out and runs the ball down CAR’s throat to start the game, racking up carries for both ATL backs.
In either event, Allgeier is going to get his. I love Bijan, but after 25 touches last week (to Allgeier’s 17), it’s evident that both backs can get touches and that ATL doesn’t want Bijan getting too many early in the season. Therefore, we back the guy that can get on the field for all rushing situations, especially in garbage time.
Game 7: Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles – 1 PM EST
Notable LAR Injuries:
- OG Steve Avila (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- TE Colby Parkinson (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
Notable PHI injuries:
- N/A
Best Bet: Puka Nacua Over 6.5 Receptions (-127) – NorthStar – 1.27 Units
This is probably my most anticipated matchup of the week, where you have a good LAR Offence vs a great PHI defence and a good PHI offence (at least running the ball) vs a good LAR defence.
Well, I thought about going with Saquon here, but with his line at around 90 rush yards (after failing to get to 90 rush yards in his first two games), and the Rams FA additions of Poona Ford and stud LB Nate Landman, I’m not feeling great about that one.
So, we go to the one weakness evident in the PHI defence: their 2nd CB. That’s right, while the Eagles have two of the best young CBs in the League (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean), Mitchell only plays on the outside (where he’ll be matched up with Davante, as he did with Pickens in Week 1 instead of Lamb), and Dejean really only plays in the slot (17 snaps at outside corner vs 86 in the slot). Meanwhile, the Eagles 2nd outside CB (Adoree Jackson) has the 5th worst PFF coverage grade in the NFL for CBs who have played 50% of snaps (40.6).
Now – it’s fair to say that Puka does play quite a bit in the slot (61% slot snap percentage this year). However, he does play enough on the outside, and with there only being two real passing options in LA, he’s the guy that gets the Dejean/Jackson treatment in this game. That worked out pretty well for Ceedee Lamb in Week 1 (110 receiving yards on 13 targets and 7 receptions, with two significant drops that could’ve resulted in two more receptions and 40+ more yards).
And it’s not like this Puka guy is some fringe player that’s just taking advantage of the matchup – this guy’s a Top 5 all-around WR in the NFL. He’s had 8+ receptions and 90+ receiving yards in the two games he’s played thus far, and PHI’s run defence vs a struggling Kyren Williams + Rams run game leaves Puka as really the only option for offensive success.
The Rams will likely be playing from behind this one, but even when they’re not, their preferred mode of travel is through the air. With Mitchell clamping up Davante to an extent, that leaves Puka open to expose the only weaknesses in this PHI defence. Let’s go.
Game 8: Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders – 1 PM EST
Notable LV Injuries:
- CB Decamarion Richardson (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
Notable PHI injuries:
- QB Jayden Daniels (Out)
- WR Noah Brown (Out)
- TE John Bates (Out)
Best Bet: Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+100) – Sports Interaction – 1 Unit
Well – this one is a bit disappointing. With Jayden Daniels officially out for the Commies, we have veteran Marcus Mariota filling in to start (in what should be a pretty decent game). While I have WAS being up in this one (even with Mariota) and leading for the majority of the game, I’m still going with a WAS pass-catcher here. So, why is that?
Well – it comes down to two things: (i) Deebo’s usage correlating with Mariota’s strengths, and (ii) the weakness of this LV defence. Let’s start with Deebo’s usage.
It’s been pretty clear to me through two weeks that the Commanders are using Terry to spread the field and Deebo underneath. Deebo has an ADOT of 3.6 yards (wow) and Terry has an ADOT of 14.4. The WAS offence has designed touches for Deebo on a weekly basis (true to OC Kliff Kingsbury’s style), where he’s actually leading this WAS pass-catcher group with 17 targets. And he’s converting on those targets too, with 7 receptions in each of his first two games.
Then, there’s Marcus Mariota. The guy is a very solid backup QB in this League, and at one point, he was a very competent starter. But even at that point, this wasn’t a guy who was going to push it down the field with consistency. The last time Mariota started games for the Commanders (2 games last year), he had an ADOT of 8.1 yards. That sure seems to me like he’s going to be targeting Deebo more than he’ll be targeting Terry, and that’s not even mentioning the fact that Terry might still need a few weeks to ramp up to full force due to the camp holdout.
Meanwhile, this LV defence has been a sieve in the pass game. Their run defence has actually been pretty good, where they held Patriots RBs to 45 rushing yards and LAC RBs to 52 rush yards (both times, they were in neutral gamescripts). Meanwhile, Deebo has been working out of the slot over 80% of the time, and the two Chargers who alternated slot snaps last week (McConkey and Keenan Allen) combined for 10 catches and 109 receiving yards.
So now, you’re telling me that I only need 5 catches from Deebo, when he has 7 in both games thus far, in a game where WAS likely won’t find success on the ground and where the QB will be much more comfortable throwing to Deebo’s area of the field? Yup, I’m in.
Game 9: Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings – 1 PM EST
Notable CIN Injuries:
- QB Joe Burrow (IR)
- DE Shemar Stewart (Out)
- CB Cam Taylor-Britt (Doubtful, DNP Thurs and Fri, unlikely to play)
- CB DJ Turner (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
Notable MIN injuries:
- OT Christian Darrisaw (Questionable, FP Friday, true question to play)
- C Ryan Kelly (Out)
- QB JJ McCarthy (Out)
- OT Justin Skule (Out)
- RB Aaron Jones (IR)
Best Bet: Jordan Mason Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-112) – Coolbet – 1.12 Units
Well – there’s a lot of unknowns coming into this one. How will the Vikings passing offence look with ol’ Carson Wentz at the helm? How will the Vikings OLine look, whether that be without Darrisaw or with him (hopefully with him, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one)? Can anyone in this MIN WR room actually stand out asid from J Jetta?
Well – there’s one thing that’s definitely not an unknown: RB Jordan Mason will have an abundance of touches in this one, as HC O’Connell said himself that he couldn’t really ask for a better workhorse RB:
Even prior to the McCarthy injury (and with Aaron Jones sharing backfield duties), Mason was still getting his work. He had 15 rush attempts in Week 1, and 9 in Week 2 (despite a very negative gamescript where the Vikings were trailing the whole game). Now – I’d guess that Mason’s snap share will jump up to around 80% (he was previously never over 60%), and a backup QB takes the reins of this offence with lacking pass-catching options outside of J Jetta.
And this Vikings defence – they’re for real (just like they were last year). Outside of the Bears first two offensive series in the first game of the year (all scripted Ben Johnson plays), they’ve been a consistent stonewall against opposing offences. Currently, they rank 5th best in pass yards allowed per game, and although they’ve given up a lot to RBs, that hasn’t resulted in much for points against (held both opponents under 25 points thus far, and the Bears scored on a pick-six + ATL had great field position due to numerous MIN TO’s). With Browning coming in as the starter for CIN (and the horrific run game of CIN to boot), I really don’t see much that would make me think MIN will be down big in this game (making for a positive gamescript for Mason).
And we’ve seen Mason have these big workloads before: in the first 4 games when he started for SF last year, he had 28 attempts, 20 attempts, 19 attempts, and 24 attempts. The guy can tote the rock, and with MIN likely in at least a neutral gamescript, with an OLine that’s had trouble pass-blocking, against a defence that’s had the ball run against them 25.5 times per game thus far through the year – what do you think’s gonna happen?
I’d put my money on Mason carrying the Vikes through this game. Hit it.
Well, that’s it for this week my friends. Tune back next week for some more analysis if you’re so inclined.