We’re back friends. Another NFL season has begun, and with a week of data in the books, we can get started with some player matchup analysis for each and every game this Sunday in the early window. I’ll be sharing one best player prop bet from every game on the early slate, going into the specifics of why a certain line might be too low, building up to a robust betting board going into this weekend.
For those of you that didn’t follow along last year, we had a pretty good run with player prop bets, going 224 (wins) -167 (losses) -3 (pushes) for +44.6 units ($4,460 profit if you placed $100 on every bet). No bullshit here – every betting line is verified and everything is tracked @betstamp if you guys want to follow me there (username: PlusMoneyJ).
So, without further ado, let’s get to the board.
Game 1: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) – 1 PM EST
Notable JAX Injuries:
- LB Foyesade Oluokon (FP Friday, playing)
Notable CIN injuries:
- N/A
Best Bet: Travis Hunter Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – Cool Bet – 1 Unit
It’s fair to say that the CIN defence looked a lot better in Week 1 than last year based on their final score vs the Browns (Browns only scored 16 points). However, it’s important to note that Joe Flacco went for 290 yards through the air, with the only reason they didn’t score many points being missed field goals and fluky turnovers.
To me, it looks like this CIN secondary is still there to be had. Flacco may be a legend, but 290 pass yards is encouraging for any matchup going forward (especially with CLE’s terrible OLine hardly giving Flacco any time to get the ball out).
And yes – Trevor Lawrence had some issues last week. But one thing was clear to me based on usage and target volume in this offence: Hunter appears to be the new Chris Godwin in this Liam Coen offence (TB Offensive Coordinator last year, now JAX Head Coach and play-caller). If you want to see how that worked out for Godwin last year (prior to him getting hurt), here’s a look:
The key stat to look at there is the usage in the slot – always over 40% for Godwin over that 7 game span. Now let’s look at Hunter’s usage in their Week 1 game:
That’s right – over 70% of snaps in the slot, with 64% of total snaps (BTJ had 86%) and a clean 96.4% route run percentage on those snaps. And now, he goes up against a CIN secondary that gave up over 110 pass yards to the two CLE pass-catchers that played the most slot snaps last week.
Travis Hunter played by far the most slot snaps of all JAX pass-catchers last week (20 vs 11 for the next guy), and this looks to be the area where CIN can get picked apart. I expect a good game for Hunter, as we all saw that he could’ve had a lot more than 33 receiving yards last week had CAR CB Jaycee Horn not made a superhuman play to pick off Lawrence.
Set it and forget it.
Game 2: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5) – 1 PM EST
Notable NE Injuries:
- CB Christian Gonzalez (Out)
- Edge Keon White (Out)
Notable MIA injuries:
- CB Storm Duck (Out)
- CB Ethan Bonner (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- S Ashtyn Davis (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- CBs Kader Kohou and Artie Burns (IR)
Best Bet: Kayshon Boutte Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-118) – BetVictor – 1 Unit
I’ve been keeping my eye on this stud WR since the end of last year, as he’s started to form quite the connection with Drake Maye in an offence that is starving for a WR1 to emerge.
For those who don’t know, Boutte was a projected 1st/2nd round pick when he was coming out of college before a poor combine showing and struggles with team interviews (among other issues) led to him falling to the 6th round. With that being noted – it’s clear this guy is blossoming into at least a starting-calibre NFL WR with some tremendous upside.
And man, this MIA secondary is a mess. Injuries, poor personnel, and bad coaching led to IND absolutely torching this secondary in Week 1. IND WR Michael Pittman, the outside WR with a similar stature and usage to Boutte, went for 80 yards on 6 receptions in a gamescript that was not conducive to passing the ball.
NE WR Stefon Diggs is starting slow due to the knee injury he suffered last year, and even when he is up to full health, there’s a chance he still doesn’t overtake Boutte as the WR1 on this team (evidenced by Boutte’s team-leading 82% snap rate in Week 1). I expect the gamescript to be better for the NE pass game here with star CB Christian Gonzales still out (allowing MIA’s pass-attack to at least look competent in this one), and weather doesn’t seem to be much of a concern here as of this writing.
Lock in Boutte – and be on the right side of history.
Game 3: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints – 1 PM EST
Notable SF Injuries:
- QB Brock Purdy (Out)
- WR Jauan Jennings (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
- TE George Kittle (IR)
- OT Trent Williams (LP Fri, likely to play)
- WR Brandon Aiyuk (IR)
Notable NO injuries:
- S Julian Blackmon (Out)
- Edge Chase Young (Out)
Best Bet: Ricky Pearsall Over 21.5 Receiving Yards Longest Reception (-115) – Sports Interaction – 1 Unit
I’m thinking Slick Rick is the guy to target here with a matchup against a NO defence that just allowed two ARI pass-catchers to go for a long reception of 25+ yards in a game where Kyler Murray only threw for 160 some odd passing yards with diarrhea troubles.
They have a key pass-rusher out in this one (Young), and their starting Safety Blackmon is also on the shelf. Meanwhile, Ricky has already shown that he can grab the deep ball with precision, as he had 3 long receptions of 21+ yards in his last 3 games last year and a stellar 45 yard grab last week against one of the better secondaries in the League.
And yes – Brock Purdy is Out for this one. Some might think that’s a bad thing, but anyone that watched Mac Jones ball out with BTJ last year knows that this guy can deliver the ball to his #1 pass-catcher (which is clearly Pearsall at this point with all of the injuries in this SF pass-catcher room). Just look at these BTJ long reception totals with Mac Jones at QB last year (Mac began as the starter in Week 11):
24, 56, 31, 41, 62, 31, 41
That’s right – each and every game where BTJ had Mac Jones as the starter he had a long reception over this line set for Pearsall.
It’s all aligning – take advantage of it here with a good edge.
Game 4: Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) – 1 PM EST
Notable CLE Injuries:
- CB Martin Emerson (IR)
- LB Owosu-Karamoah (Out)
Notable BAL injuries:
- S Ardarius Washington (Out)
Best Bet: Cedric Tillman Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-117) – NorthStar – 1 Unit
I really wanted to jump on a BAL offensive player after their explosion against the Bills last week – but man, this CLE defence just scares me at the moment.
After a pretty subpar year last year for this defence, it’s clear they figured something out with their Week 1 performance against CIN. All the talk this offseason was about how this was the best lead-up to a season that Joe Burrow has ever had, where he’d be primed for a fast start against a basement-dweller team like CLE. Well as the legend Lee Corso stated so profoundly – not so fast midget.
CIN went for a grand total of 7 offensive yards in the 2nd half, and Myles Garrett looked like his true game-wrecking self running through the CIN OLine like they were swiss cheese. Therefore, we go to the other side of the ball, where CLE should be chasing the lead for most of the game (based on the 11.5 spread for BAL) and Joe Flacco has gone back to his gunslinging ways.
Flacco spread the ball around pretty good last week, with 290 passing yards and no pass-catcher going over 66 receiving yards. That being said, both of his primary WRs (Jeudy and Tillman) had 52+ receiving yards, and now Jeudy’s line is being set at 53.5 yards (which I also don’t mind).
Nonetheless, with Tillman’s line 10 yards lower, and the issues BAL showed in the secondary (especially against an X WR in Keon Coleman (8 rec, 112 receiving yards) with a similar build + usage to Tillman), this looks like a smash spot to me. If you look at the games where Cedrick Tillman has been healthy, there’s an argument that he’s the actual WR1 in this passing offence.
Good gamescript – Good QB – Good WR – Bad Secondary (at least for now until BAL figures it out). That’s a recipe for success, and I expect Tillman to easily clear this line come Sunday.
Game 5: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-5) – 1 PM EST
Notable NYG Injuries:
- LB Micah McFadden (IR)
Notable DAL injuries:
- WR Jonathan Mingo (IR)
Best Bet: George Pickens Over 22.5 Receiving Yards Longest Reception (-110) – Betway – 1 Unit
I just can’t quit the George Pickens’ long reception line. Man, this guy is a deep threat in the truest sense of the word (16.1 receiving yards per reception in his career), and though he had a slight hiccup in Week 1, that was against Quinyon Mitchell and the Eagles (with Ceedee Lamb somehow avoiding Mitchell in most situations).
With that being said, the Pickens usage was still quite encouraging. He had 4 targets, and his average depth of target was over 15 yards, where he had some close calls and drew a pass-interference early in the game on a deep shot from Dak.
And then we have the NYG defence. Not a defence to write home about in any sense aside from their pass-rush. The secondary looked pretty shaky last week (as they did for most of last year), allowing 233 pass yards to Jayden Daniels when the gamescript didn’t encourage WAS to pass the ball. 3 WAS WRs had long receptions of 18+ yards, and Scary Terry was very close to breaking off an extremely long one had Daniels not overthrown him.
Ceedee should still get his in this one, but Pickens is the guy with the best chance at going deep and hauling one in. The only concern might be that he doesn’t get ejected before doing so – but hey, that’s the game you play with a guy like George.
Time for a bounce-back Georgie.
Game 6: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-6.5) – 1 PM EST
Notable CHI Injuries:
- CB Kyler Gordon (Out)
- DT Grady Jarrett (Questionable, LP Friday)
Notable DET injuries:
- OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, DNP all week, expected to play)
- S Kerby Joseph (Added to injury report Friday (yikes), true question to play)
Best Bet: David Montgomery Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Bet365 – 1 Unit
God – this is a tough game to get a read on. The DET offence just looked so lost against GB last week, and the offensive turnover with Ben Johnson leaving + OLineman being lost was quite evident, as the communication just wasn’t there. That being said – maybe GB’s defence is just that good after watching how they dominated the WAS offence on TNF.
On the other side of the coin, CHI’s revamped defence with DC Dennis Allen leading the charge looked quite good against the MIN passing game (until the 4th quarter), despite them missing their best CB (Jaylon Johnson) for that game. All told, even considering it was against a Rookie QB in his first game on the road (JJ McCarthy), it was impressive that they held MIN WRs to 72 receiving yards.
So – how was it that MIN started their comeback on their way to beating the Bears? Answer: It was with the power run game. Aaron Jones got the initial few carries while struggling to get anything going on the ground. Then, Kevin O’Connell decided to switch things up and go with the bruising RB Jordan Mason – and this decision paid dividends.
Mason ended up with 68 rush yards on 15 carries (4.5 yards per carry), as it was clear this MIN offence was starting to wear down the Bears D come the second half. So – who’s the guy most comparable to Mason to the Lions? It’s Monty time baby.
Yes, Gibbs might be better than Aaron Jones and may command more snaps. But D-Mont still had 11 rush attempts last week, and that was in a negative gamescript where they were trailing the whole game (which I don’t expect here with them being 6.5 point favourites at home). It’s clear the Lions are still intent on establishing the run game, and Monty should be the beneficiary with them likely leading the whole game and Gibbs continuing his work in the pass game.
Time to get back to the basics Lions – Ride Monty to open up the pass game.
Game 7: Buffalo Bills (-6) @ New York Jets – 1 PM EST
Notable BUF Injuries:
- CB Taron Johnson (Questionable, LP Thursday and Friday, likely to play)
- DT Ed Oliver (Out)
- LB Shaq Thompson (Questionable, LP Thursday and Friday, likely to play)
- CB Tredavious White (Questionable, LP all week, true question to play)
- CB Maxwell Hairston (IR)
Notable NYJ injuries:
- WR Josh Reynolds (Out)
Best Bet: Breece Hall Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) – Sports Interaction – 1 Unit
Here we go – one question lingers in everybody’s mind as we get into Week 2: Is this Jets offence for real? My answer: Maybe, but Breece is gonna eat in this matchup regardless.
Everyone was quite shocked by how this Jets offence seemingly dominated a strong PIT defence last week, especially when it came to the run game. 134 rush yards from Jets RBs, with 107 of those yards coming from Breece – I think it’s fair to say that the “time-share” concerns for this backfield through all of training camp were overblown. Not to mention, this young Jet’s OLine looked like gangbusters out there last week in both the run game and the pass game.
That shouldn’t be taken as me taking anything away from how Breece looked in that one – man, he showed some unreal burst and looked a lot more like the guy who broke out as a rookie in 2022 followed up by over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in 2023.
And this Bills defence – still showing some significant struggles defending the run. Now it’s fair to note that it was King Henry running all over them last week (169 rush yards on 18 carries), but just watching that game, you could see that there were big gaps for Henry to run through on most attempts he had through the first 3 quarters. This connects back with last year, where the Bills gave up 117.7 rush yards per game to RBs even when they were usually leading in games (producing a negative gamescript).
While the Bills may get up in this one early, the Jets seem intent on sticking to the run game and pounding the rock. And even if the score does get somewhat out of hand, we’re covering ourselves by taking his rushing + receiving line, as we all know Breece can catch the ball well out of the backfield.
Rain or shine, Breece will get his in this game if Week 1 is any indication. I’m betting that it is, so lock this line in.
Game 8: Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) – 1 PM EST
Notable SEA Injuries:
- S Nick Emmanwori (Out)
- CB Devon Witherspoon (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Notable PIT injuries:
- N/A
Best Bet: Jaylen Warren Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (+105) – Bet365 – 1 Unit
Yessir, we’re going with a little plus money here to spice things up. But really, how could you not with a line this low and with Seattle giving up 9 receptions and 73 receiving yards to CMC and Niners last week?
Okay – maybe Warren isn’t exactly close to CMC’s level. However, this should still be a sticking point for the PIT offence. The PIT RBs had 5 receptions last week vs the Jets, and Warren finished with 22 receiving yards in this revamped Arthur Smith offence. With Gainwell getting 3 of those receptions (for a measly 4 receiving yards total), I’m thinking there’s a chance that more of these targets will go to Warren this week.
But this isn’t a new thing for Warren – in 5 of his last 7 games in 2024, Warren was over this line when it came to receiving yards (and that was with Najee Harris taking a lot more snaps from Warren than Gainwell does). Meanwhile, this SEA D gave up 36.7 receiving yards per game to RBs in 2024.
All in all, I expect Warren to get the lion’s share of the work in Week 2, where the Steelers are at home as a slight favourite (favouring dump-offs and screens to Warren), with a proven producing-RB through the air that can act as a safety-valve for the statue that is Aaron Rodgers.
KISS – Keep It Simple Steelers – use your boy Warren to help open up this offence.
Game 9: Los Angeles Rams (-5) @ Tennessee Titans – 1 PM EST
Notable LAR Injuries:
- OG Steve Avila (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- TE Colby Parkinson (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Notable TEN injuries:
- DT T’Vondre Sweat (Out)
Best Bet: Kyren Williams Over 72.5 Yards (-115) – Betway – 1 Unit
As soon as I saw Sweat was gonna be Out in this one – Kyren became the play. The gamescript should be good (Rams as the 5 point favourite, leading to more rush attempts), Kyren seems to continue to be the bellcow in this backfield (18 of the 19 RB carries last week), and in 6 of his last 7 games last year, Kyren was over this line.
Now, Kyren may not have gotten to this mark last week, but the HOU rush defence surprisingly looked a lot better. And I know there might be concern about starting OG Steve Avila being Out for this one, but replacement OG Beaux Limmer was actually one of the highest PFF graded run blockers last week playing in relief of Avila + Dotson (89.9 PFF run blocking grade on 21 rushing snaps – Elite).
And now, The Tennessee Titans (who allowed 133 rush yards to DEN RBs last week) lost their best run stuffer DT T’Vondre Sweat to injury this week (75.0 PFF rush defence grade in 2024). I mean, really, if JK Dobbins can get 63 rush yards on 16 attempts against you with Sweat in, how does Kyren not gain more with Sweat out?
It’s all right there for you folks – enjoy the action and check back next week for some more quick hits.