Well – we took a few weeks off over the holidays – with the NFL Regular Season winding down, it made sense to cool our engines due to the increased variability that comes with teams resting starters after locking up playoff spots. All that being said – we had a great NFL Regular Season showing with our weekly 20+ Player Props all the way from Week 1 to Week 16. All told – we came away with a record of 224-167-3 for +46.2 units profit ($4,620 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor). All bets tracked and verified through BetStamp (my profile is public @PlusMoneyJ, where you can see every past wager). It was a lot of fun – but the work doesn’t stop there.
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Wild Card Saturday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for The Wild Card Saturday Slate
Game One: LA Chargers vs Houston Texans
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 25.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAC WR Josh Palmer (Out)
- LAC OG Trey Pipkins (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- LAC WR Quentin Johnston (Questionable, DNP Weds and LP Thurs, leaning towards him playing)
- LAC WR Jalen Reagor (IR)
- LAC RB JK Dobbins (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- HOU S Jalen Pitre (IR)
- HOU LB Christian Harris (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
Mr. McConkey – back at it again with a chance to put a bow on a very impressive rookie season. I mean – over 1,100 receiving yards in an offence largely employing a run-first scheme is about as good as it gets for a first year player – and now with Palmer Out, Reagor still on IR, and QJ battling through a thigh injury – he has a chance to carry the load against a mediocre pass defence in HOU.
About the HOU defence – specifically the secondary: they’ve only held opposing WR groups under 145 receiving yards in 3 of their last 12 games. Those performances included two blowouts (DET & BAL) where the opposing offence didn’t have to pass the ball much, and the Dolphins WRs w/o Jaylen Waddle. This defence is only allowing the 12th most receiving yards per game to WRs – but they also held 3 of their first 5 WR matchups under 145 receiving yards – showing that as the season went on, they only got worse.
But there’s a reason we’re also taking McConks’ long reception as well – as this HOU D gives up the 4th highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs on the year (13.66). Two TEN pass-catchers had 39+ yard long receptions vs this defence last week, but even prior to HOU resting some starters, they gave up: (i) 27+ yard long receptions to 3 BAL pass-catchers in Week 17, (ii) 19+ yard long receptions to 3 KC pass-catchers in Week 16, and (iii) 20+ yard long receptions to 2 MIA pass-catchers in Week 15. The opportunities will be there for Ladd to break off a long one.
The HOU D has also held 4 of the last 5 RB groups they’ve faced to 85 rushing yards or less – and with Dobbins at less than 100%, it will likely be tough for the Chargers to get the run game going in this one. Even though I expect the Chargers to be in the lead throughout this one – that didn’t stop McConkey from putting up 94 receiving yards, 2 TDs, and a long reception of 40 yards vs NE in a Week 17 blowout.
Lock him in, folks.
Pick: Nico Collins Over 27.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- HOU OG Shaq Mason (Out)
- HOU WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell (IR)
- HOU WR John Metchie (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- LAC DBs Elijah Molden, Asante Samuel, and Marcus Maye (IR)
- LAC CB Ja’Sir Taylor (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- LAC LB Denzel Perryman (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Nico is just a straight-up stud – look no further than his 1,000+ receiving yards this year in only 12 full games played for proof. It’s no surprise that he’s producing at such a high rate with how he broke out last season – but it’s nonetheless impressive for a guy who dealt with a soft-tissue injury smack-dab in the middle of the year.
BUT – these Chargers DBs can be a stingy bunch, even with a banged up DB room. They’ve held 4 of the last 5 WR rooms they’ve faced to 158 receiving yards or less, and that included some decent pass-offences such as DEN and KC. On the year – they’re middle-of-the-pack in receiving yards allowed to WRs per game (under 145), making Nico’s yardage line a bit scarier considering the HOU IOL lost its best piece in Shaq Mason. This means less opportunities for Stroud to get a clean ball off to the WR1 Collins – so we aren’t leaning that way.
Instead – we’ll go with the Collins long reception line – as the Chargers have been giving up explosive pass plays at a pretty high rate this year. In fact – the Chargers D is just behind the Texans D, allowing the 6th highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs (13.12). Two LV pass-catchers had 20+ yard long receptions against this LAC defence last week, and the week before, even the shitty NE pass-catchers had multiple 18+ yard long receptions. If you’re giving up those kinds of explosives to two of the worst pass-catching groups in the League – how’s it going to go with Collins?
And the thing with Collins is – the guy hits long receptions consistently. 30+ yard long receptions in 2 of his last 3 outings, to go along with 26+ yard long receptions in 9 of the 12 games he played this year. If the Chargers DB room limits Collins to zero long shots in this one – I’d be thoroughly surprised, especially considering the health status of LAC DBs.
I project HOU to be trailing in this one – so game-script is also in our favour. Let it rip.
Game Two: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: George Pickens Over 24.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betway
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PIT OG Mason McCormick (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
*Wind is minimal in this game, and the snow is expected to taper off by game-time, with no precipitation in the forecast. In other words – weather impact in this game should be minimal
We all know the story with this PIT offence – long bombs and run the ball. It’s what the offence has been predicated on ever since Russ got healthy and was inserted as the starting QB (Week 7), and there’s no evidence to suggest that this has changed to end the year.
The evidence all points toward PIT forcing the ball to Pickens downfield on contested catches – as is shown through his 30+ yard long receptions in 8 of the 9 games Russ has started. Pickens missed that mark last week – but he also didn’t have any receiving yards in that game, and PIT was already locked into a playoff spot. Call me crazy – but I think he’s going to come out with some juice in this one after that stinker.
And then – we get to the BAL defence. This defence has been a lot better as of late against the pass, as there was a stretch there in the middle of the season where they were giving up the most receiving yards per game to WRs in the NFL. With All-Pro Safety Kyle Hamilton switching to Free Safety in recent weeks – the secondary has performed a lot better. You don’t have to look further than opposing WR outputs over the Ravens last 7 games: there hasn’t been one WR group to go for 150 receiving yards or more.
That’s alright though – because Pickens output is predicated on deep shots, and this BAL D is still giving those up at a decently high rate. The CLE offence with DTR at QB had 3 pass-catchers go for 21+ yard long receptions vs Baltimore last week, and the two games prior to that, 3 pass-catchers from HOU and PIT respectively had long receptions of 18+ yards. Pickens didn’t play in the Week 16 PIT vs BAL matchup, but with PIT WR Calvin Austin putting up a 44 yard long reception in that one – I can only expect Pickens to end up with a similar mark.
Russ is going to push the ball downfield to Pickens on at least 3-4 of his throws – and Pickens just needs to catch one. I like those odds, especially with the Steelers as 9 point underdogs, leading to a more pass-heavy approach if they want to stick around in this game.
Pick: Rashod Bateman Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- BAL WR Zay Flowers (Out)
This pick may not have the most data behind it due to Bateman being anything but consistent this year. However – with Zay Flowers Out and a PIT defence that’s held 8 of the last 9 RB rooms they’ve faced under 85 rush yards – he’s definitely in play here.
The PIT defence has been very solid this year – but we’re starting to see the cracks in this otherwise impenetrable unit when it comes to opposing WR production. In 3 of their last 4 games, they’ve allowed opposing WR groups to go for 160+ receiving yards, including 2 times where they allowed 200+. Even if you take their season-long mark vs WRs – they’ve been subpar, allowing the 8th most receiving yards per game to WRs (155).
And while Bateman only had 1 reception for 14 yards the last time they played PIT – that was largely because of game-script, as BAL beat the wheels off PIT in that game, allowing them to lean on the run game throughout. Zay Flowers was also active in that game, and he had 100 receiving yards against this porous secondary. I’m taking the shot on Bateman replacing that production, and we don’t have an absurd line here because Bateman hasn’t lit the world on fire with his previous production.
As for the game-script in this one – I’d expect a closer game than these two teams had in Week 17, as there’s something about the PIT vs BAL matchups that always make for close games. Henry will likely struggle on the ground in the 1st half vs a defence that stuffs the run, until he wears them down enough to hit some bangers towards the end of the game. That leaves Bateman with a lot of opportunities to come through early – which is all he needs when the line is this low.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Wild Card Saturday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for The Wild Card Saturday Slate
Game One: LA Chargers vs Houston Texans
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 25.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Nico Collins Over 27.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Sports Interaction
Game Two: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: George Pickens Over 24.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betway
Pick: Rashod Bateman Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365