The NFL puts out a banger of a game for TNF – of course we have to provide some in-depth analysis and picks that take advantage of the mismatches! It’s been a hell of a season to this point – and now, we have one of the most important matchups of the year (thus far) with Playoff implications galore between the Broncos and the LA Chargers.
This last week – we hit some bumps in the road with our picks, as we lost almost 5 units (13-16-1 on our picks) on a very weird Sunday of football. It may be a setback – but we’re still almost 50 units up ($5,000 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor) on the year with our Player Prop formula – so we can’t be too mad:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Sixteen: Thursday Night Football Best Bets – Top Player Props for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-116) 1.16u via Pinnacle
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAC CB Cam Hart (Out)
- LAC S Elijah Molden (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- LAC LB Denzel Perryman (Questionable, FP on Weds, likely to play)
- LAC DT Otito Ogbonnia (Questionable, LP on Weds, true question to play)
- DEN RB Jaleel McLaughlin (Out)
We start our board with a pick that takes advantage of a few things – one of which is this banged up Chargers DB room. These guys are ravaged by injury at this point in the season, as they already had starting CB Asante Samuel on IR to go along with starting Safety Alohi Gilman. Now – they’re missing another two starters with Cam Hart and Elijah Molden likely missing in this matchup – which can only mean good things for DEN pass-catchers.
But is there really a DEN pass-catcher you can trust beyond Courtland Sutton? I’d say no. Marvin Mims was 2nd in WR targets and yards the last two weeks (only 8 targets and 32 receiving yards aside from a 93 yard bomb he converted on a blown coverage), and Devaughn Vele was 2nd in WR targets and yards the two weeks before that (14 targets and 166 receiving yards during that stretch). Meanwhile – Sutton has 309 receiving yards and 36 targets over the last 4 weeks. Solid production, especially when you consider that he’s been over 70 receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games.
So Sutton shows solid receiving production on a consistent basis – but what about his long reception work? Well, that ain’t too bad either, as here are his latest long reception marks, starting with last week: 20, 32, 19, 23, 32, 33, and 37 yards. Though Sutton may be classified as more of a “physical” WR as opposed to a field-stretcher – he can certainly get the job done downfield with his contested catch ability.
So why does this matchup make sense for Sutton? Well, aside from the LAC DB injuries, they’ve been giving up some nasty production to WRs. On a season-long basis, the Chargers have given up the 12th most receiving yards per game to WRs (150.36) and the 6th most receiving yards per reception to WRs (13.41). Even if you take a more recent sample size – things have been bad, with 3 of the last 5 WR groups they’ve faced going for 200+ receiving yards and over 13.85 receiving yards per reception.
If you look even deeper at these LAC D recent performances – it’s the big, physical WRs that have been going off. Last week, it was Mike Evans with 159 receiving yards and a long reception of 50+ yards. In Week 13, it was Drake London with 86 receiving yards and a long reception of 17 yards. In Week 11, it was Tee Higgins outperforming Ja’Marr Chase with 148 receiving yards and a long reception of 42 yards. That’s a nice trend for a big, physical WR like Sutton.
In my opinion, both teams lack the RB talent to run effectively against these solid defences, leading to the pass-game as the only way these offences can move the ball effectively. Good news for pass-catchers.
My most confident reads of the night – let it buck my friends.
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DEN CB Riley Moss (Out)
- LAC TE Will Dissly (Out)
- LAC WR Jalen Reagor (IR)
- LAC OG Zion Johnson (Questionable, FP on Weds, likely to play)
That’s right – McConkey won’t let Sutton be the only one to steal the show in this one. McConkey has been taking slot snaps at an increased rate as of late (72% slot snaps on the year, 76.5% or higher slot snaps in 3 of his last 4 games), and we all know All-Pro DEN CB Pat Surtain doesn’t travel to the slot much with his 30 slot coverage snaps this season vs DEN CB Ja’Quan McMillian at 417 slot coverage snaps. Already, a good matchup to start things off, with McMillian allowing the most receiving yards on the season out of all DEN DBs (625 receiving yards allowed).
But that – is not all. McConkey has been on a heater through the back half of the regular season, despite an injury holding him out of Week 14. While his 58 receiving yards last week might not be the most impressive of performances – the three games he played before that, he had 83 receiving yards or more each time out. He’s the clear number one WR in this offence, and has been a very reliable target for Justin Herbert.
But – with McConkey’s stellar YAC ability – he’s also been able to put up respectable long reception numbers. In 7 of his last 8 games, he’s had a 20+ yard long reception, including marks like a 48 yarder Week 13 vs ATL, a 28 yarder Week 11 vs CIN, and a 37 yarder Week 10 vs TEN.
So McConkey has solid yardage and long reception productivity, going up against the worst DB on DEN from a numbers standpoint – not a bad start. But then, let’s also look at the coverage scheme of this DEN defence. The Broncos play the 5th most man coverage in the NFL (34% of the time), with Pat Surtain locking up almost anyone with a pulse on the outside. When you look at LAC pass-catchers vs man-coverage – it’s McConkey’s time to shine.
Three LAC WRs have 330+ receiving yards vs zone coverage this year (Palmer at 334, QJ at 398, and McConkey at 467). However – McConkey also has 333 receiving yards vs man coverage, and the next LAC WR vs man coverage is … checks notes … Josh Palmer at 125 receiving yards. Yikes. Seems like the go-to-guy vs man is clearly McConkey – and the DEN D plays a lot of man coverage when compared to League average.
The Broncos D has also allowed 150+ receiving yards to WRs in 3 of their last 4 games (which includes 400 receiving yards allowed to the CLE WRs in Week 13). Josh Downs hit a 22 yard long reception last week, Jerry Jeudy & Elijah Moore hit 40+ yard long receptions the game before that, and Jakobi Meyers & Tre Tucker hit 25+ yard long receptions prior to that. Enough for me to take the shot with McConkey.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Sixteen: Thursday Night Football Best Bets – Top Player Props for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-116) 1.16u via Pinnacle
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet99