Holy shit guys – how did we make it to Week 15 already? It’s absurd that the season has flown by like it has, but we haven’t been disappointed with the quality of the NFL product. There’s really no other sport like it – and now, we get right into the thick of the playoff race. We’re now counting down the weeks where we can still bet Player Props on this beautiful sport – as it’s been a profitable venture for us this year with a 197-136-1 record for $5,380 profit (if you’re a $100 unit bettor). All betting lines and picks are tracked & verified on Betstamp – with consistently good reads + in-depth analysis getting us to where we are today.
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Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
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2024 NFL Week Fifteen: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Game on the Sunday Slate
Game One: Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-108) 1.08u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DAL DE Demarcus Lawrence (IR)
- DAL LB Demario Overshown (IR)
- DAL LB Nick Vigil (Questionable, DNPs all week, unlikely to play)
- DAL LB Eric Kendricks (Questionable, personal reasons, truly questionable)
- DAL CB Trevon Diggs (Out)
- DAL CB Jourdan Lewis (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
We’re expecting some showers in this game, so we’re staying away from WRs that rely on 10+ air yard passes for their production. It’s a completely different story when talking about RBs catching the ball out of the backfield – as they have very short air-yard targets, that could turn into long gains, making this a very effective way to move the ball in the rain. But what about this Cowboys defence?
The Cowboys D were the butt of every joke through the first half of the year for one simple reason – they couldn’t stop the run to save their lives. From Week 1 to Week 11, this defence was allowing an average of 111.1 rush yards per game to opposing RB rooms (with 4 RB groups going for 130+ rush yards). It was a serious issue – but the tides seem to be turning as we get further through the season.
In the last 3 weeks – this Cowboys defence has held each RB room under 65 yards rushing, and the RBs they’ve gone against during that time aren’t too shabby (Chase Brown, Tyrone Tracy, and Brian Robinson/Austin Ekeler). This Mike Zimmer-led defence seems to have developed into a better run-stuffing unit, and with Chuba’s recent production – it’s no lock he gets close to his rushing line.
Chuba’s been super solid on a year-long basis – but in 2 of his last 3 games, he’s been held under 60 rush yards while still getting solid volume (18 rush attempts per game over that span). It’s not like his receiving production has been prolific over that span either (17 receiving yards total in his last 3 games), but I have the feeling he’s going to get more production through the air, especially with the unfortunate injury to Rookie RB Jonathon Brooks. Let me explain.
While Brooks was hardly utilized in his first game back Week 11, he took 21% of the RB snaps in Week 12, and converted that into 3 receptions for 27 receiving yards. It was a sign of things to come had Brooks stayed healthy – in a game where Chuba didn’t have any receptions, CAR appeared to be utilizing Brooks as a receiving back (where Chuba owned the ground-game touches). Then – Brooks goes down early in Week 13 with the ACL tear – and that’s where Chuba has 3 receptions for 15 receiving yards. Not amazing numbers – but clear that he’s operating as a full bellcow-back in this backfield from this point on.
And it’s not like Chuba has been a bum in the receiving game over the full season. He’s had 5 games with 15+ receiving yards, and he’s had plenty of opportunities with 35 receptions season-long. The key to this pick is the matchup – as the Cowboys consistently give up receiving production to RBs.
Not only does the Cowboys D allow the 7th most receiving yards per game to RBs (40.5) – they do it with unparalleled consistency. If you’re an RB, you are catching some balls against this defence. Every RB room (except for one) this year has had 21+ receiving yards against this defence – and with no other capable RBs in this CAR backfield – that falls to Chuba to continue the trend. He’s my choice in this one. Especially with athletic, fast DAL LB Overshown Out in this one.
Pick: Rico Dowdle Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.05u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CAR LB Shaq Thompson (IR)
- CAR LB Josey Jewell (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- CAR LB Trevin Wallace (Out)
- CAR Edge Jadaveon Clowney (Questionable, FPs Thurs & Fri, likely to play)
- CAR CB Jaycee Horn (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- DAL OG Zack Martin (IR)
- DAL C Cooper Beebe (Out)
It’s Rico Dowdle SZN ladies and gentleman. Who would’ve thought that this guy would come through at the end of the year to become a potential league-winner in the Fantasy Football playoffs? Not me, but with his production lately – he’s definitely on track.
This stud has been running up the numbers on the ground – with 2 straight games of 110+ rush yards and 3 straight games of 85+ rush yards. Two of those matchups were easy money (NYG and WAS are both bottom five in rush yards allowed per game), but the other matchup was against a CIN defence that’s only allowing 94.5 rush yards per game to RBs (middle-of-the-pack). The DAL OLine has been doing a much better job run-blocking (even with Zack Martin Out), and there’s a new commitment to running the ball without Dak to fall back on at QB.
So – if Rico is eating in easy matchups – how does this CAR defence stack up? Well – they’re the worst rush defence in the League, as they’re allowing 138.62 rush yards per game to RBs (2nd worst isn’t even close – IND allowing 118 rush yards per game). If you want to beat the Panthers – stick to the run – as 4 of the last 5 RB rooms to face CAR have put up 140+ rush yards.
With Dowdle taking the reins as the bell-cow back in this backfield – and the clear weakness of CARs defence in stopping the run – this lines up as a smash-spot. Hit it.
Game Two: Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CLE LB Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (IR)
- CLE CB Greg Newsome (IR)
- KC WR Hollywood Brown (Started practicing after IR stint, likely Out)
That’s right – this is the first time this year where I’m loading up a Mahomes Prop Over. Call me a hater all you want (because I am) – but now is the time to cash in on Mahomes due to both recent production, and the matchup (for those wondering, some rain and wind are expected in CLE, but not enough to impact the pass-game significantly).
Let’s start with Mahomes and his recent production. You guys remember when Mahomes was averaging 231.5 pass yards per game, with a TD-INT ratio of 6-8, through the first 6 weeks of the season? Well – that guy is gone – with Mahomes averaging 257.1 pass yards per game, with a TD-INT ratio of 14-3, over his last 7 games. Further, his consistency is pretty rock-solid as well over that span, with 260+ pass yards in 5 of those 7 outings. Something’s clicked in this passing game.
Which is good – because KC likely won’t have much success on the ground in this one. The CLE defence is allowing the 11th least rush yards per game to RBs at 87.1 – and they haven’t allowed an RB room to go for 105+ rush yards in any game since Week 5. That’s stout. But my Lord, they are giving up passing production to QBs.
While they’re middle-of-the-pack in pass yards allowed per game season-long (229.8), the last 6 games give a better picture of this CLE secondary. In 5 of their last 6 outings, this defence has allowed 245+ pass yards, with an average of 256.8 pass yards per game allowed. The only offence that missed this 245+ yard mark – was PIT last week without Pickens in the lineup. For reference – with Pickens in the lineup (in Week 12), Russ threw for 270 pass yards vs this defence.
And call me crazy – but I think Jameis (as always) will push the ball downfield, making this game-script feasible for Mahomes to try to stay ahead in a potentially high-scoring game. Lock it in.
Pick: Xavier Worthy Over 18.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CLE LB Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (IR)
- CLE CB Greg Newsome (IR)
- KC WR Hollywood Brown (Started practicing after IR stint, likely Out)
I know – pretty crazy to be betting a Chiefs WR to go for a long reception when the offence has the 4th lowest number of 15+ yard plays in the NFL this season – coupled with Worthy’s difficulty in keeping 2 feet in-bounds when he does have a chance at a big play. Regardless, when it comes to this Browns defence – the clear breaking-point is the deep passing game.
The Browns are allowing the 8th most receiving yards per game to WRs on the season (159.1), but the glaring stat is their receiving yards per reception allowed to WRs. They’re giving up the highest mark in the NFL in that category (16.03), with clear separation from the 2nd worst mark in the League held by the Rams (14.86). You look at Cleveland’s last 5 outings – and things are even worse:
- Week 14 vs PIT (w/o Pickens): 11.00 yards per reception
- Week 13 vs DEN: 20.92 yards per reception
- Week 12 vs PIT (w/ Pickens): 18.33 yards per reception
- Week 11 vs NO: 28.50 yards per reception
- Week 9 vs LAC: 20.42 yards per reception
That’s just poor downfield coverage by the CLE secondary – and would you look at that: Worthy has a 19+ yard long reception in 3 of his last 4 games. With no other KC pass-catcher challenging defences down the field, lock Worthy in for at least one converted long-bomb. Good enough for me.
Pick: Elijah Moore Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-108) 1.08u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- KC CB Jaylen Watson (IR)
- CLE CB Cedrick Tillman (Out)
- CLE TE David Njoku (Questionable, DNP all week, game-time decision)
- CLE LT Jedrick Wills (IR)
- CLE LG Joel Bitonio (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
They keep giving us relatively low Moore betting lines compared to his recent production – we’re going to take it. Njoku likely Out for this one, Tillman Out for another week – and a Chiefs secondary that isn’t nearly as scary as it was to start the season.
Off the hop – let’s give Moore his flowers and point out what a solid WR he’s been as of late. 66+ receiving yards in 3 of his last 6 games, and 85+ receiving in two of those games. That’s legit #2 WR numbers, and Jameis has been a God-send for this pass-attack, making it feasible for any WR to pop-off on a given night.
Thing is – this KC defence plays the 6th most man coverage in the NFL (over 32% of the time). When you look at CLE pass-catchers against man coverage – it’s Moore all-day baby. While Jeudy has far exceeded Moore’s production vs zone coverage (315 receiving yards more), the difference is much smaller when it comes to receiving yards vs man coverage (Moore with 208, Jeudy with 242).
On top of all that – the Chiefs D looks susceptible in coverage recently. They’re still only allowing the 7th least receiving yards per game to WRs (134). However, in each of their last 5 games, they’ve allowed 140 receiving yards to opposing WR groups. That includes the LAC WRs without McConkey last week, and the weak LV Raiders WRs the week before that. Uh oh.
It all lines up – the coverage advantage for Moore, the recent production allowed by KC, and a good game-script for pass-heavy tendencies. Let’s roll.
Game Three: Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIA OT Terron Armstead (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- MIA OT Kendall Lamm (Questionable LP Fri, likely to play)
- HOU S Jalen Pitre (IR)
- HOU LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Suspended)
Has there been a hotter QB in the NFL since Week 11 than Tua? If there has, I must’ve missed something – because this guy’s been crushing it as of late.
Here are his passing yard marks since that time: Week 14 vs NYJ for 331 pass yards, Week 13 vs GB for 365 pass yards, Week 12 vs NE for 317 pass yards, and Week 11 vs LV for 288 pass yards. That’s absolutely nasty work, and two of those defences hold opposing QBs to under 230 pass yards per game on the year. Doesn’t matter the matchup right now – this guy’s cooking.
And that’s good – because on a season-long basis, the Texans D is allowing the 7th least pass yards per game at 220.3. HOWEVER – the more recent sample size from this HOU defence tells a different story.
Over their last 4 games, this HOU defence has allowed each QB they’ve played to go for 240+ pass yards. That includes stellar performances such as 276 pass yards allowed to the Jags (235 of which were Mac Jones), 278 pass yards allowed to Will Levis, and 354 (!!!) pass yards allowed to Cooper Rush. Yikes.
Tyreek looks to be back in fighting form with his recent uptick in production, and Waddle and/or Achane are liable to gash defences with crazy YAC ability. With the HOU defence holding opposing RB rooms to 85 rush yards or less in 3 of their last 5 games – I expect heavy passing volume in this one. That’s especially the case with this high-powered HOU offence on the other side of things.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-117) 1.17u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIA OT Terron Armstead (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- MIA OT Kendall Lamm (Questionable LP Fri, likely to play)
- HOU S Jalen Pitre (IR)
- HOU LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Suspended)
I don’t always take Tyreek to hit his Over due to market inflation based on last year’s performances. But when I do – there’s a very good reason for it.
The first point – Tyreek’s jump in production as of late. Two straight games with 80+ receiving yards is a good trend, and 60+ receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 shows more consistent production. While he may not be hitting deep-shot receptions at the unreal rate he had been the past two years in this MIA offence – it’s solid, and the arrow’s pointing up.
The biggest consideration in this game – the HOU defence and their reliance on zone coverage. They play zone coverage at the 9th highest rate in the NFL (72%), and you guessed it – Hill performs very well against zone. To my surprise – Waddle is actually outproducing Hill vs man coverage (207 vs 176 receiving yards). When it comes to zone coverage – Hill flips the script (547 vs 448 receiving yards). Good sign.
The cincher – how bad this HOU D has performed against WRs, especially lately. They’re allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game to WRs on the season (159.92) – but if you look lately, things are even worse. 4 of the last 5 WR groups to face this defence have gone for 187+ receiving yards, which includes WR groups such as TEN and JAX. Pretty darn shitty WR rooms compared to MIA – which should lead to the HOU secondary getting exposed by these MIA WRs, specifically Hill.
Pick: CJ Stroud Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- HOU OG Juice Scruggs (Out)
Stroud, at home, after a bye, in a game that’s projected to be pretty high scoring. What more do you need?
But there is more. Starting with Stroud’s steady production as of late, where he’s had 230+ pass yards in each of his last 4 games, feasting on opposing secondaries. The thing with Stroud is – he’s a much better passer when he’s kept clean in the pocket (most QBs are, but for Stroud, it’s especially impactful). The man is averaging 7.67 pass yards per attempt when kept clean, with a meagre 6.25 pass yards per attempt when pressured.
Well – he’s facing a MIA defence this week that has a bottom 10 QB pressure % in the NFL (9th at 20.9%). That’s a good sign for Stroud – but what makes it even better is MIA’s lacklustre pass coverage as of late.
While Miami only allows 226.3 pass yards per game (11th least), the secondary has become a sieve recently. In their last 5 games, they’ve allowed the opposing QB to go for 274+ pass yards 4 of 5 times. Some of those performances include Gardiner Minshew going for 282 in Week 11, and the ghost of Aaron Rodgers going for 339 last week. If those guys are ripping through this MIA defence like that – what do you think Stroud’s going to do?
On top of that – there’s likely to be a heavy reliance on the pass-game with my projection on the game-script (high-scoring), coupled with the MIA defence’s performance against the run. MIA hasn’t allowed an opposing RB group to go for 95+ rush yards since Week 5 – which is some of the best consistency out of any defence I’ve seen in my research to this point. Lock in Stroud.
Pick: Joe Mixon Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114) 1.14u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- HOU OG Juice Scruggs (Out)
Two primary points for only taking Mixon’s receiving line in this one: (i) Mixon has been a lowkey good pass-catcher as of late, and (ii) though the MIA defence doesn’t give up much rushing production, they do give up crazy receiving production to opposing RBs.
Starting with Mixon and his production profile. In 8 of 10 games he’s played this year, he’s had 18+ receiving yards. Further, in 4 of those games, he had 30+ receiving yards, showing he’s consistently in that 18-40 yards range. Not bad when his prop line is set at such a low bar.
Then – the MIA defence. They had a really good start to the year, holding 6 of 7 RB groups to 20 receiving yards or lower through the first half of the season. Then – things started to fall apart in this aspect of the defence. I can’t put my finger on why, but the stats tell the story when it comes to the uptick in RB receiving production.
In 4 of their last 6 games, they’ve allowed opposing RB groups to go for 65+ receiving yards. That includes the likes of the Raiders RBs going for 66, Josh Jacobs going for 74 on his own, and the Jets RBs (w/o Breece Hall) totalling 65 receiving yards last week. The only guy mentioned there that’s close to Mixon’s skill level is Jacobs – and we saw how that played out.
Expect Mixon to pop off a few catches – which should be enough to hit this low line.
Game Four: New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Davante Adams Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) 1.20u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYJ RB Breece Hall (Questionable, likely to suit up in a limited capacity)
- NYJ TE Tyler Conklin (Questionable, hopeful to play due to personal reasons)
- NYJ OG Alijah Vera-Tucker (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
- NYJ OT Morgan Moses (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
I know that Rodgers threw for over 300 yards last Week vs MIA – but I don’t expect that here. Jacksonville performed valiantly last week to steal one out from under the Titans – but let’s not kid ourselves. This JAX defence can be grinded down, especially with the Mac Jones-led JAX offence continuously showing they’re unable to sustain drives.
So – New York can likely employ the Braelon Allen/Isaiah David combo (with some Hall mixed in) to a significant extent in this one – as the JAX D has allowed opposing RB groups to go for 100+ rush yards in 6 straight games. Thing is – it’s still unpredictable as to how their snap shares are going to play out on a week-by-week basis – so that’s off the table.
However – while the JAX defence has been limiting opposing WR groups in yardage as of late (under 160 receiving yards allowed to WRs in 4 of their last 5) – they’re still giving up that long ball. Last week – it was Ridley with a 30 yard long reception, and Westbrook-Ikhine with a 19 yard long reception (both hitting their Overs). The week before – it was Nico Collins with a 40 yard long reception, and Tank Dell with a 23 yard reception (both hitting their Overs). Even the week before that – 5 different pass-catchers on DET had 20+ yard receptions. Insane.
And these two WRs – they get down the field at a pretty good rate. For Wilson, in 8 of his last 10 games, he’s had a long reception mark of 16+ yards, including long catches of: 42, 26, 35, 27, 24, and 23. He hasn’t been as consistent lately – but with this matchup, it more than makes up for the slight dip. Then – Adams. Davante has a long reception of 24+ yards in 3 straight games, with Rodgers finding him multiple times after he burns DBs at the line with his patented release-game.
Not a lot of passing volume vs JAX? Shouldn’t be a problem, as these two guys should be testing the Jags secondary down the field if the Jets have any sense.
Game Five: Washington Commanders vs New Orleans Saints
Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 24.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- WAS RB Austin Ekeler (IR)
- NO CB Paulson Adebo (IR)
Scary Terry – back at it again. A miniscule amount of talent in the NO secondary; a WR who’s produced through his whole career, and finally has a QB; and a defence that can’t get heavy pressure on the QB. What more can you ask for?
To emphasize how solid Terry has been this year from a receiving yardage standpoint – he’s averaging 70 receiving yards per game to this point. Not bad when you consider he has a Rookie QB at the helm and no other WAS pass-catcher has half as many receiving yards as him on the season (896 vs 453).
But the true value comes when Terry is hitting the deep ball. 50+ yard long receptions in 3 of his last 6 games, and 16+ in 2 of the other games over that span. It’s not necessarily the most consistent production – but when Daniels has time and the secondary lacks talent – Terry hits.
And this NO secondary – man, it’s hurtin. Ever since they got rid of Marshon Lattimore and lost Paulson Adebo to injury – WRs have been eating. In 4 of their last 6 games, they’ve allowed opposing WR rooms to go for 160+ receiving yards – and the two times they didn’t, it was the NYG WRs with Drew Lock, and the Panthers WRs before Bryce Young started heating up.
On top of all that – they’re yards per reception allowed to WRs mark has gone up over the past 4 weeks. They’re giving up 14.27 receiving yards per reception over that period – which would be 4th worst mark in the League on a season-long basis (this matches up with Lattimore and Adebo being Out).
Lock in both these suckers – as even with Jake Haener starting at QB for the Saints (tough gamescript), the NO D has been surprisingly efficient at preventing rush yards over the last 4 weeks.
Game Six: Baltimore Ravens vs New York Giants
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 101.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Justice Hill Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- BAL WR Diontae Johnson (Suspended)
- NYG CB Dru Phillips (Out)
- NYG CB Deonte Banks
- NYG CB Cordale Flott (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- NYG S Tyler Nubin (IR)
- NYG LB Bobby Okereke (Out)
- NYG DT Dexter Lawrence (IR)
First off – this game is set to be an ugly one, with a 40% chance of rain and cold conditions in New York. That favours a run-heavy game-script off the hop.
But did anyone really think that the NYG would hold a candle to the Ravens in this one? I don’t have much faith, as the only thing that seems to be clicking on the NYG offence right now is the run game – and the Ravens D is allowing the 2nd least rush yards per game to RBs this season (64.38).
So the NYG shouldn’t be able to score many points in this game. That means a good game-script for the BAL run game – and man, can this Giants D be had on the ground.
The NYG are allowing the 4th most rush yards per game to RBs on the season (115.23), and the consistency with which they give up big yardage to RBs is unparalleled – as 6 of their last 7 outings resulted in 110 rush yards allowed or more (which included RB rooms such as the Cowboys, the Panthers, and the Bucs). Not bad RBs on those three teams – but definitely nowhere near the level of Henry.
And DHen – hasn’t been producing at the level he was earlier in the season. But don’t consider that a bad thing – as positive regression has always been a friend to bettors that know what they’re doing. Yes – Henry’s had under 85 rush yards in 3 of his last 4 outings. But – that came against CIN, PIT, and PHI. All three of those teams allow 20+ rush yards less on average (per game) than the NYG D. You see where I’m going with this.
But it isn’t just rush yards that this NYG defence gives up – it’s also receiving yards to RBs (9th most receiving yards per game allowed to RBs at 38.7). Insert – Justice Hill. The guy continues to be a solid 3rd down back in this offence, as he’s had 2+ receptions in each of his last 5 games, and 15+ receiving yards in 3 of those 5. With such a minimal line – and a clear weakness in the NYG defence – I’m expecting him to get a couple 10+ yard receptions in this one. If that’s the case – it won’t take much to hit his line.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betway
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYG QB Drew Lock (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- NYG TE Theo Johnson (IR)
- NYG OT Andrew Thomas (IR)
- BAL DT Michael Pierce (Questionable, FP all week, likely to play)
- BAL LB Adisa Isaac (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
This sets up well with the game-script – as the NYG should be throwing the ball quite a bit (even with the rain) due to the BAL offence rolling and the BAL defence stuffing the run game. Well – RB receiving production is the spot you want to attack if you’re going against the BAL defence.
This defence is allowing the 5th most receiving yards per game to RBs (42.8), and most recently, they’ve allowed Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and Chase Brown to go for 27+ receiving yards. Sounds good for opposing RBs – and Tracy has been producing at a solid rate through the air.
Tracy has 28+ receiving yards in 3 straight games – and none of those defences give up as many receiving yards per game to RBs as BAL does. This surge in receiving production has correlated with backup NYG QBs (both Devito and Lock) getting inserted into the starting lineup – and with rainy conditions, this NYG pass-attack isn’t likely to push the ball downfield.
More than likely – there will be a lot of screens and checkdowns in this one. Perfect recipe for Tracy to hit his receiving line, so let’s lock it in.
Game Seven: Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CIN OT Orlando Brown (Out)
- CIN OG Cody Ford (Questionable)
- TEN LB Jack Gibbens (IR)
- TEN S Quandre Diggs (IR)
- TEN CB La’Jarius Snead (IR)
TEN CB Roger McCreary (Questionable, LP Fri after FPs all week, likely to play)
Call me crazy – but after that stinker of a performance Higgins had last week vs a very gettable DAL secondary – there should be a concerted effort to get him more involved. We all saw the news this week that Burrow would restructure his contract to keep Higgins around, and Higgins just changed his agency to the same group that represents Ja’Marr Chase. Coincidence? I think not.
But it’s not like that projection is the only reasoning for this pick. Truth of the matter is – this TEN secondary is nowhere near where it was to start the year. For a defence allowing the least receiving yards per game to WRs in the NFL (a mere 124), things have been worse lately. Part of it is injuries (La’Jarius Sneed is on IR, and starting slot CB Roger McCreary is banged up with a shoulder injury), but the other side of things are game-script related.
For as crazy as it might sound after that stinky TEN offensive performance last week – the Titans offence has been pushing the score up as of late. And when you look at opposing WR production over that time – it’s lined up. 3 of the last 4 WR groups to play the TEN defence have gone for 160+ receiving yards – and that includes the Commanders WRs (whose only real WR is Terry McLaurin). It’s been a struggle for this secondary – and even Mac Jones ended up getting his WRs 100+ receiving yards last week with BTJ being the only feasible WR healthy there.
But – we have to look at zone vs man coverage on this TEN defence to get a better gauge of how Tee vs Ja’Marr will play out. And the signs are good, as the Titans are 16th in both man coverage and zone coverage, showing a balanced scheme in the secondary. With Higgins only slightly behind Chase vs man coverage (193 vs 257 receiving yards), despite playing 5 less games this year, it’s feasible to think Higgins will have enough opportunities vs man to pop off here.
It’s not like Higgins has been a bum as of late. Despite his 23 receiving yard performance last week, he’s averaging 80.3 receiving yards per game over his last 6 full games. With this line – this should be a lock.
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 24.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Bet99
Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CIN DT Sheldon Rankins (Out)
- CIN LB Logan Wilson (IR)
- CIN CBs Dax Hill and DJ Turner (IR)
- TEN RB Tony Pollard (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- TEN WR Treylon Burks (IR)
- TEN C Lloyd Cushenberry (IR)
We keep hitting TEN WR long reception lines in good matchups – well, consider this one of them. The CIN secondary has looked porous as of late, and it’s no surprise that TEN continues to push the ball down the field – as I wouldn’t classify Ridley or Westbrook-Ikhine as “possession WRs”.
But seriously – look at these long receptions marks for Ridley and Westbrook-Ikhine lately. Here are Ridley’s long reception marks over his last 8 games: 30, 30, 63, 21, 42, 25, 47, and 33. That’s nasty work. Now here’s Westbrook-Ikhine’s long reception marks over his last 4 games: 19, 27, 38, and 98 (wowza). These two – are getting downfield at an absurd rate.
And this CIN defence – man, the long-shot has been open as of late against this secondary. They’re only allowing the 10th highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs in the NFL (13.29), but over the last 4 games, that average jumps up to 17.85 receiving yards per reception to WRs. That would be the worst mark in the NFL by a mile, and shows just how susceptible these guys are to intermediate-deep pass plays.
Keep riding the TEN WR long reception train – and don’t get off until I tell you.
Game Eight: Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos
Pick: Bo Nix Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- N/A
I was starting to think this IND defence figured things out as they got healthier throughout the year – but that was just a fool’s gold thought.
They have been better against WRs (2 of the last 4 WR groups have gone for less than 120 receiving yards), and the run defence hasn’t been as terrible as it was to start the year (2 of the last 4 RB groups have gone for less than 90 rushing yards). It wasn’t like we were going to take any DEN RB to go over their line in this one anyway – but it’s reassuring to know we don’t have to desperately bet on Javonte or McLaughlin.
However – the passing yards are still flowing on a consistent basis vs this IND D, where they’ve allowed 5 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced to go for 238+ passing yards. That includes the likes of Drake Maye (238 last week), Jared Goff (269 the week before), and CJ Stroud (285 in Week 8). Solid QBs to be sure – but news flash – Bo Nix is just as solid as those guys.
Bo Nix’s production in the 2nd half of this year has been absurd. He has 3 straight games with 270+ pass yards, and he hasn’t been under 215 pass yards in his last 6 games. He’s had some easy matchups in that span to be sure, but the Colts aren’t any tougher when you look at the game logs.
Expect Bo to spread the ball around in this one, with even more preparation time than usual prior to this game as they had their Bye in Week 14. This is the one.
Pick: Josh Downs Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (+124) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- IND WR Josh Downs (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- IND OT Braden Smith (Out)
- IND TE Mo Alie-Cox (Out)
- IND OG Will Fries (IR)
- DEN CB Riley Moss (Out)
- DEN LB Alex Singleton (IR)
I know Downs is a little nicked up coming into this one – but I think he’s still set to have quite the performance in this spot. Let’s get into why.
The first point – Downs plays primarily in the slot (84.5% slot snap rate), where he’ll be away from All Pro CB Patrick Surtain (who primarily plays on the outside). But even with Surtain in at Corner – this DEN defence has been leaking receiving production as of late.
In betting the NFL – you have to stay water – as defences and offences change through the year, whether it be due to personnel changes or game plan adjustments (or both). Well – it seems like opposing offences have figured out this DEN defensive scheme – because the DEN D that only allowed 104.8 receiving yards per game to WRs through the first 5 games of the season has given up 183.25 receiving yards per game to WRs over the last 8 weeks. That’s a crazy disparity – and to show the consistency with which this has changed – it’s important to note that 6 of the last 8 WR groups to face the DEN D have gone for 150+ receiving yards.
And Downs stays solid as ever with his production, especially vs man coverage (he has the most receiving yards and receptions vs man coverage out of Colts WRs despite missing a few games). And would you look at that – DEN plays the 5th most man coverage in the NFL (34% of the time). That means more Downs – especially in the slot where he can attack the lesser DBs on this DEN defence.
Game Nine: Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions
Pick: Keon Coleman Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-106) 1.06u via 3ET
Pick: Amari Cooper Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-116) 1.16u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- BUF TE Dalton Kincaid (Questionable, FP all week, likely to play)
- DET DE Aidan Hutchinson (IR)
- DET LBs Alex Anzalone, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, and Derick Barnes (IR)
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (IR)
I swear, I’m not overreacting to the BUF vs LAR blow-up last week with these picks. Fact of the matter is – you can’t really run the ball against this DET defence (3rd least rush yards per game allowed to RBs at 67 flat). When the Bills can’t run the ball, and when the opposing offence has some firepower – Allen ends up slinging the ball all over the field.
And who is he going to pass to the most in this matchup? Well, we could’ve taken all the BUF WR Overs, as the DET D has allowed 3 straight WR groups to go for 160+ receiving yards, and they’re allowing the 2nd most receiving yards per game to WRs on the season (185.9). But then you look deeper – and it looks like a Coleman + Cooper game to me based on the coverage tendencies of Detroit.
The Lions D – still rocking the highest man coverage rate in the NFL through this season (42.4%). And how do these Bills WRs perform against man coverage? Well, the most productive WR on the Bills (Khalil Shakir) only has 156 receiving yards vs man coverage in 12 games. Not bad, but then you look at Keon and Cooper vs man. Both of them have more receiving yards vs man coverage than Shakir (194 for Coleman, and 175 for Cooper). Further, both of those guys have played less games than Shakir, and Cooper only came over to the Bills halfway through the season (before that, he had shitty Deshaun throwing him the ball).
Cooper just went for 95 receiving yards last week vs a similarly bad secondary in the LAR, and Coleman had 70+ receiving yards in 2 of his last 3 games. Shakir might be the safe option, but these are the guys to bet in this matchup.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Pick: David Montgomery Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET WR Khalif Raymond (IR)
- BUF CB Rasul Douglas (Out)
- BUF S Damar Hamlin (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
- BUF S Taylor Rapp (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
I know – weird that I’m taking one rush attack to crush in this one, and the opposing pass attack to go off. But with the BUF secondary playing well in most matchups lately (any other matchup than the LAR), and the Bills rush defence lacking consistently recently – these are the plays.
Really though – look at this BUF defence. Doesn’t even really make sense that they gave up 320 pass yards to Stafford last week – as they held Brock Purdy and Pat Mahomes under 200 pass yards the two weeks before that. Same goes for WR production, where SF and KC WRs were seriously lacking in production vs the BUF D. The area of this Bills defence that doesn’t seem to be improving? The rush defence, of course.
The Bills rush defence was better to start the year, as they’re only allowing 103 rush yards per game to RBs on the season. However – lately, it’s been a shitshow. 4 of the last 5 RB groups to play the Bills D have gone for 110 rush yards or more. That includes RB rooms such as the Rams, the Dolphins, and the Colts.
Not one of those teams has near the rush attack of this DET offence. Gibbs has 70+ rush yards in 6 of his last 8 games, and Monty isn’t far behind 70+ rush yards in 3 of his last 6 games. With a matchup like this – where the Bills D will likely make adjustments to prevent pass-play success after last week – the time is here for both these studs to hit their overs.
Game Ten: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Stone Smartt Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- TB LB KJ Britt (Out)
- TB LB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
- TB S Mike Edwards, Jordan Whitehead, and Antoine Winfield (Out)
- LAC TE Will Dissly (Out)
- LAC RB JK Dobbins (IR)
- LAC WR Ladd McConkey (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
Was it just me, or did anyone else see Smart (with two t’s) show out last game in lieu of Dissly getting injured at half time? Well, Dissly’s Out for the full game this week – and the matchup with TB is good enough to make your mouth water if you’re a TE. Let’s get to it.
If you’re keeping track at home – Smartt had ⅕ of his total career receiving yardage last week, dropping 54 receiving yards on a very gettable Chiefs D when it comes to TE production. Once Dissly got knocked out of the game, it was Smartt with the highest snap share percentage among LAC TEs (37% on the game, higher than any other LAC TE). He looked agile and deceptively fast – and should get some good work in against a TB D that just can’t stop TEs.
Next to the Chiefs D – the Bucs D is giving up the most receiving yards per game to TEs (70.5), and things haven’t gotten better lately. They just gave up 117 yards to the Raiders TEs last week, 77 yards to the CAR TEs the week before, and 39 yards to the NYG Rookie TE Theo Johnson the week before that (with shitty Devito starting). If you’re even a decent TE – you’ll eat in this matchup. Expect Smartty Pants to do the same.
Pick: Mike Evans Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-122) 1.22u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAC CB Asante Samuel Jr (IR)
- LAC S Alohi Gilman (IR)
- LAC LB Denzel Perryman (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- TB RB Bucky Irving (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- TB WR Sterling Shepherd (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
My man Mike has been back in the lineup for a few weeks now – and he makes such a difference for this Bucs offence. If in no other way than as a field-stretcher – as you look up a montage of Evans highlights – you’ll see plenty of deep shots.
But how has he been converting on longer passes this season? At a pretty fucking unreal rate to be honest with you. He now has 7 straight games with a long reception of 21+ yards, and there were some tough matchups mixed in there where you wouldn’t expect him to gouge secondaries. What can I say – the guy’s a straight up sicko.
And this Chargers defence, while playing valiantly under Harbaugh with less talent on paper compared to many defences, can still get torched by the deep ball. If you’re looking season-long, they’re giving up the 11th highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs (13.15). However, if you just take their last 5 games – there’s been 3 where opposing WRs have averaged 13.8 yards per reception (or higher). It’s not foolproof to assume this defence can be beat by explosive pass plays – but when it’s an All-Pro like Mike Evans running on them downfield – there’s upside for big-time receptions.
Game Eleven: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: AJ Brown Over 26.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PIT S Deshon Elliot (Out)
- PIT DE Larry Ogunjobi (Out)
- PHI TE Dallas Goedert (IR)
I know the conditions in this game might not be the best (rain is expected for at least a portion of the game), but we’re not asking for big volume out of AJ – we just want one big one. And you know what they always say about diva WRs that call out their offences – squeaky wheel gets the grease.
Even if AJ has been struggling as of late – we know this guy can smash the deep ball. In his first 8 games of the season, he had a long receptions of 20+ yards 100% of the time. Even if he’s had long reception marks of 15 yards in his last two outings respectively – we know he has this in his bag.
And this Steelers D – about the only place you can beat them is with the deep shot. They’re allowing the sixth most receiving yards per reception to WRs in the NFL (13.41) – yet they don’t rank in the bottom 10 in any other defensive category. It’s a rock solid defence – except for when the secondary gets tested down the field. Saquon will still get his – but I really doubt the Eagles will rely only on the run game against a Steelers D that’s only allowing 78.85 rush yards per game to RBs on the season (6th fewest).
It would be classic Eagles to have all that smoke this week between AJ and Hurts – only to come out and hit a couple deep shots to remind everyone who they are. Hit it.
Game Twelve: New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: James Conner Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.09u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NE LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (IR)
NE DE Christian Barmore (Questionable, personal reasons, could play) - NE S Kyle Dugger (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- NE CB Christian Gonzales (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- ARI OG Will Hernandez (IR)
The last pick of the day is reserved for my boy James. This guy is the ageless wonder, with 85+ rush yards 6 times this season, averaging over 66 rush yards per game. Sure, he’s had his tough outings – but in good matchups, with good game-scripts – this guy can easily breach his line.
Well – it’s a good thing the Patriots defence is a good matchup. From Week 3 to Week 11, this NE D only held one RB room under 100 rush yards. Even more recently – the RB1 on opposing offences have had very solid production, with Jonathan Taylor going for 96 rush yards last week, and Kyren Williams going for 86 rush yards in Week 11. To top it off – on a season-long basis, this NE D allows the 6th most rush yards per game to RBs (111), all while limiting RBs to the 6th least receiving yards per game (24).
It’s not a fool-proof bet – but with ARI projected to win this one by quite a bit, leading to a more run-heavy game-script – you couldn’t ask for a better chance for Conner to shine.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Fifteen: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Game on the Sunday Slate
Game One: Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-108) 1.08u via NorthStar
Pick: Rico Dowdle Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.05u via Bet365
Game Two: Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Pick: Xavier Worthy Over 18.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Pick: Elijah Moore Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-108) 1.08u via Betano
Game Three: Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-117) 1.17u via Pinnacle
Pick: CJ Stroud Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Joe Mixon Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114) 1.14u via Betano
Game Four: New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Davante Adams Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) 1.20u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Game Five: Washington Commanders vs New Orleans Saints
Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 24.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Game Six: Baltimore Ravens vs New York Giants
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 101.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Justice Hill Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betway
Game Seven: Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 24.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Bet99
Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet365
Game Eight: Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos
Pick: Bo Nix Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Pick: Josh Downs Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (+124) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Game Nine: Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions
Pick: Keon Coleman Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-106) 1.06u via 3ET
Pick: Amari Cooper Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-116) 1.16u via 3ET
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Pick: David Montgomery Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Game Ten: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Stone Smartt Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via 3ET
Pick: Mike Evans Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-122) 1.22u via NorthStar
Game Eleven: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: AJ Brown Over 26.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Pinnacle
Game Twelve: New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: James Conner Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.09u via Coolbet