Well – a new week begins, and with Week 15 on the docket – it’s getting real close to NFL Playoff time. In fact, it is the start of (most) Fantasy Football Playoffs, bringing the individual performances of stud NFL players to the front of everyone’s mind. For us – we continue to churn out Prop Overs and even at our worst – we still seem to break even, as we did on MNF after a stellar weekend of close to +10 units ($1,000 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor) on Sunday:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Fifteen: Thursday Night Football Best Bets – Top Player Props for Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Brock Purdy Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-116) 1.16u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAR LB Troy Reeder (IR)
- LAR CB Cobie Durant (Out)
- LAR CB Darion Kendrick (IR)
- SF RB Isaac Guerendo (Questionable, LP on Weds, plans to play)
- SF RBs CMC and Jordan Mason (IR)
- SF OT Trent Williams (Out)
This isn’t exactly the most difficult projection on the board tonight – as we all saw how the Rams handled Josh Allen on the ground last week, where he gouged the LAR LBs for 82 rush yards on 10 attempts. But we’re getting a low line here compared to usual for Purdy, and I think that’s for a few reasons. Let’s get into it.
Purdy Over Rush Yards was everyone’s darling prop for a big stretch of the year – and why wouldn’t it be? He had 5 of 8 games with 24+ rush yards from Week 3 to Week 11, and averaged 30.5 rush yards per game over that span. The guy has sneaky wheels – that’s no surprise. The surprise comes when you look at his rushing production in the Niner’s two most recent games:
- Week 13 vs BUF: 2 rush attempts for 4 rushing yards
- Week 14 vs CHI: 5 rush attempts for 11 rushing yards
The thing is – we have to add some context to those performances.
That Week 13 matchup vs the Bills – had snow-heavy conditions with a lack of footing evident – and a Bills team that held the ball for over 60% of the game with a great RB rushing attack. Purdy wasn’t on the field much – and when he was, he was pushing the ball through the pass game with an inability to scramble (as much as usual) due to the snow (even Josh Allen only had 18 rush yards in that one). The Bills defence hadn’t allowed a QB to rush for 17+ yards since Week 5 – so it was a given that Purdy would struggle on the ground.
In Week 14 – he had no need to run the ball. They smoked the Bears up and down the field (38-13), with Guerendo tearing apart the defence on the ground, and Purdy slinging it through the air. It isn’t like the Bears LBs are susceptible to rushing QBs (only 2 QBs have 25+ rush yards vs the Bears D on the season). So that makes sense too.
In this game – I expect him to use his legs more for two reasons: (i) in three of the last four games (how long LAR LB Troy Reeder has been on IR), the LAR D has allowed opposing QBs to exceed 27+ rush yards, and (ii) Purdy already lit up this Rams D for 41 rush yards earlier in the year.
Further, in what should be a highly contested matchup, Purdy will need to make plays on offence to keep this close – which includes using his legs to gain crucial third downs. With the matchup, the game-script, and a lack of fully-healthy RBs on SF – Purdy will hit this line. Lock it in.
Pick: George Kittle Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-123) 1.23u via Pinnacle
Pick: Jauan Jennings Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAR LB Troy Reeder (IR)
- LAR CB Cobie Durant (Out)
- LAR CB Darion Kendrick (IR)
- SF RB Isaac Guerendo (Questionable, LP on Weds, plans to play)
- SF RBs CMC and Jordan Mason (IR)
- SF OT Trent Williams (Out)
If you tuned into the Rams vs Bills matchup last week – this shouldn’t be a surprise either. The Rams obvious vulnerability on defence is giving up big-time throws at a high rate – which is exactly what we’re going to attack in this one.
Let’s start with Jennings. The new WR1 in this SF offence (sorry Deebo, father-time has caught up to you earlier than most), Jennings is absolutely carrying the load for this WR room. The guy has 90+ receiving yards in 3 of his last 5 games – but it gets even better when you look at his long reception marks. 5 STRAIGHT GAMES with a 20+ yard reception, showing that Jennings gets up the field and converts on intermediate pass-plays at a high rate. With Guerendo likely less effective on the ground due to lack of rest for his foot injury, it could be tougher for the Niners to run the ball effectively. If that’s the case – Jennings will have even more opportunities to convert on some long-balls. That’s especially the case when you look at this LAR defence.
The Rams D – still one of the worst in the League at guarding long pass plays. We bet Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir long receptions last week – and cashed both before the 4th quarter started. The proof is in the numbers – the Rams D is allowing the 2nd highest receiving yards per reception mark in the NFL (14.86), making it even more obvious that you should be pushing the ball downfield against this defence. Oh, and their starting CB Cobie Durant is out for this one. Easy money.
But then – we move to Kittle. Sure, the Rams D may not be giving up a high yards per reception mark to TEs on the year (middle-of-the-pack at 10.23) – but is Kittle really even a TE? He isn’t like most, as he runs at least ⅓ of his snaps in the slot (30.2% slot snap % on the year), and even runs some snaps out wide as a WR (10% wide snap % on the year). When the Rams have played similar TEs over the last five weeks (Jonnu Smith, Austin Hooper, and Juwan Johnson), the TE has gone for a long reception of 19+ yards.
Now – you have a better TE than all those guys, with more explosiveness and elite route running – with long receptions of 29+ in 6 of his last 7 games. And they’re giving us this line?! Pffft, easy one here.
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betano
- SF DT Javon Hargrave (IR)
- SF DE Nick Bosa (Questionable, LP on Weds, I’d say likely to play)
- SF LB Dre Greenlaw (Out)
- SF S Mike Mustapha (Out)
- LAR WR Demarcus Robinson (Questionable, LP on Weds, optimism to play)
- LAR OT Alaric Jackson (Questionable, weird DNP on Weds, unlikely to play)
- LAR C Beaux Limmer (Questionable, FP on Weds, likely to play)
Full disclosure – I wanted to take Corum’s Over Rush Yards here – but the books are too scared to post a line for him. I’m not saying that Kyren will have a tough game in this one – but the better value to me was with Corum. Regardless – I still like the value with Kyren at this line.
The first point – we have to recognize that this is a short week. This could be a situation where people believe the Rams don’t utilize Kyren as much due to the short rest – but history and the current situation wouldn’t support that.
First off, the Rams have already played a Thursday game this year in Week 8 vs the MIN defence (4th lowest rush yards allowed per game at 72.3). In that one – Kyren had 23 rush attempts for 97 rush yards. Yup – ain’t no rest for the wicked in this Rams offence.
The current situation: Rams need this game, and consider it a must-win with the division title being the only way for LA to make the playoffs. It would be a huge swing if they could pull this one off – and I know they’ll be utilizing they’re best players at a high rate to get it done. That’s Kyren baby.
The next point – how solid Kyren has been as of late. In 3 of his last 4 games, he had 86+ rush yards, and averaged over 80% of the RB snaps in that span. Good luck getting this guy off the field when he’s rolling, as he’s averaging 77.9 rush yards per game on the season. Nasty.
The last point – the matchup in this one. The SF defence has been much improved through the air, holding 4 of the last 5 opposing QBs they’ve faced to under 165 pass yards. It’s not likely they’ll do as well against the legend that is Matt Stafford – but it still gives me enough pause to load up on Overs in the Rams pass-attack.
The SF rush defence, on the other hand, has been faltering to an extent. In the Niners last 5 games, they’ve allowed 104+ rush yards to RB rooms 3 times, while only holding the Bears RBs and the Seahawks RBs under that mark (very average rush attacks). This LAR OLine was clicking last week vs the Bills defence – and I expect the same thing to happen tonight after some growing pains/injuries in the trenches through the first half of the year. Lock in Kyren.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Fifteen: Thursday Night Football Best Bets – Top Player Props for Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Brock Purdy Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-116) 1.16u via NorthStar
Pick: George Kittle Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-123) 1.23u via Pinnacle
Pick: Jauan Jennings Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betano