Well, well, well my friends – that was a great week of Football! The NFL is the gift that keeps giving, with exciting matchups and performances week after week – all for our entertainment. As we always do – we analyzed every game on the Sunday slate to find mismatches on Prop Overs – and man, did we smash it out of the park. Almost 10+ units ($1,000 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor) in one day, while going 16-6-1 on all our plays – it’s automatic. That takes us to almost $5,500 profit on the season – and there’s nowhere to go but up from here:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Fourteen: Monday Night Football Best Bets – Top Player Props for Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet365
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DAL CB Trevon Diggs (Questionable, likely to play)
- DAL LB Nick Vigil (Questionable, unlikely to play)
- DAL DL Demarcus Lawrence (IR)
- CIN OTs Trent Brown and Orlando Brown Jr (Out)
I can’t say this is the most fool-proof game to bet Bengals on, with the injuries to the CIN OLine, combined with the DAL secondary finally getting back to full-strength with Diggs inserted back into the lineup. Thing is – you don’t really have to be that concerned – as Chase is as good as they come, and the DAL secondary isn’t near the level that they were playing at under Dan Quinn last year. Let’s get into it.
The first point I’ll make is regarding the DAL defence. While they’re right around the middle-of-the-pack this year in receiving yards allowed per game (147.92) and receptions allowed per game (12.00), they’re not exactly the worldbeaters they were to start the season in the secondary. Even at full health, the schematic weaknesses of this team can’t be ignored. Over the last 7 games (and Diggs was in for some of those games), the DAL defence has allowed 150+ receiving yards and 11+ receptions to WRs in 5 of 7. The only two times opposing WRs didn’t hit that mark – were the NYG with Drew Lock last week, and the 49ers with a severely banged up WR room in Week 8 (no Aiyuk or Jennings).
But the Bengals have two elite WRs, with Tee Higgins back in the lineup after another mid-season absence. So, doesn’t 150+ yards sound hard to split with a disgusting duo such as this? As my boy Lee Corso would say – not so fast.
The Cowboys play a higher rate of zone coverage (over 70%, 13th in the NFL) than man coverage (24%, 24th in the NFL) on the season. And if you look at these WRs – it’s Ja’Marr that eats against zone coverage.
Tee Higgins almost has the same amount of receiving yards vs man coverage as Chase does (209 vs 170) – and that’s despite Higgins playing 5 less games this year. BUT – you get to zone coverage, and Chase blows Higgins out of the water.
Higgins vs zone – 24 receptions for 292 receiving yards. Chase vs zone? 42 receptions and 729 receiving yards. Even if you take Higgins’ missed games into account – Chase is still dominating this coverage at a much higher rate.
Last but not least – Ja’Marr’s production with Tee Higgins in the lineup. Without Tee in the lineup, here’s how Chase has done this year:
- Week 8: 54 receiving yards on 9 receptions (long reception of 13 yards)
- Week 9: 43 receiving yards on 7 receptions (long reception of 11 yards)
- Week 10: 264 receiving yards on 11 receptions (nice job Baltimore, good defence lol)
Two of three weeks – he shit the bed from a production standpoint. The other week? He was facing a BAL defence that’s giving up the 3rd most receiving yards per game to WRs (177). Now here’s Ja’Marr’s production with Tee in the lineup:
- Week 3: 118 receiving yards on 6 receptions (long reception of 41 yards)
- Week 4: 85 receiving yards on 3 receptions (long reception of 63 yards)
- Week 5: 193 receiving yards on 10 receptions (long reception of 70 yards)
- Week 6: 72 receiving yards on 5 receptions (long reception of 33 yards)
- Week 7: 55 receiving yards on 5 receptions (long reception of 18 yards)
- Week 11: 75 receiving yards on 7 receptions (long reception of 32 yards)
- Week 13: 86 receiving yards on 6 receptions (long reception of 49 yards)
I don’t know about you – but it seems to me like Chase’s long receptions and consistent receiving production comes with Tee in the lineup. He’s in tonight – so let’s roll.
Pick: Jake Ferguson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 Receptions (+100) 1.0u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DAL OG Zack Martin (Out)
- DAL OT Tyler Guyton (Questionable, unlikely to play)
- DAL QB Dak Prescott (IR)
- CIN DT Sheldon Rankins (Out)
- CIN CBs DJ Turner and Dax Hill (IR)
When you’re telling that two starting OLineman for the DAL offence are Out – and backup QB Cooper Rush is in – this becomes more of a lock than I even realized at first. Nothing more friendly to a sub-par QB than a big TE underneath, especially when said QB is under a ton of pressure from stud-pass rushers like Trey Hendrickson. But this pick goes even deeper than that superficial analysis.
Let’s start with the CIN defence. If you want to have success on offence vs this team – you have to pass the ball to the TE. The Bengals D has allowed the 4th most receiving yards per game to TEs (65.25) to go along with the 3rd most receptions per game to TEs. (6.00 on the dot). That includes recent performances such as 99 receiving yards on 9 receptions to the Steelers’ TEs last week (where Freirmuth had his season-high in receiving yardage), and 86 receiving yards on 5 receptions to the Chargers TEs (where Dissly had his season-high in receiving yardage). If the Muth and Disser are going for 65+ receiving yards on you in a given week – you have a problem.
Then – we get to how frequent Cooper Rush has been utilising his TEs (even with Ferguson Out since Week 11). Here’s Cooper’s production to backup TEs in his absence (since he became the starting QB):
- Week 11 vs HOU (only allowing 37 receiving yards per game to TEs) – 11 receptions and 109 receiving yards to DAL TEs
- Week 12 vs WAS (only allowing 42 receiving yards per game to TEs) – 5 receptions for 79 receiving yards
- Week 13 vs NYG (only allowing 40 receiving yards per game to TEs) – 5 receptions for 33 receiving yards
Rush and the DAL TEs may have taken a dip in Week 13 vs the Giants D – but those other two matchups stand out. Even in the worst of circumstances, against defences that are Top 10 in preventing TE production – the DAL TEs went off. With Ferguson at 75% of the snaps the last time he was at full-health (next closest TE was at 18%), I think he gets the lead-role back in this TE room. If he has that – he will produce in a smash-spot matchup against a CIN defence that just doesn’t have it when it comes to TE pass coverage.
This pick may be more about projection than proven production by Ferguson this year – but it’s a hell of a projection at such a miniscule line. Hit it.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet365
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Pick: Jake Ferguson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 Receptions (+100) 1.0u via Bet99