Here we go – another prime week of NFL Football – and another chance to chill on the couch for 7 hours with endless entertainment. I’m telling you up front – this is one of the worst slates I’ve seen this year from a betting perspective. But that doesn’t mean we’re backing down – it just makes the research a little more complex, with numerous things to take into account. It’s possible we got a little greedy on Thursday Night Football, where we shot for the moon – but didn’t land among the stars. Regardless of the 1-4 night on TNF – we’re up 45+ units on the year thus far ($4,500 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor). That’s bankroll management.
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Fourteen: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Sunday Game
Game One: New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 19.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet365
Pick: De’Von Achane Over 14.5 Yards Longest Reception (+100) 1.0u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYJ LB CJ Mosley (just went on IR)
- NYJ CB Sauce Gardner (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- MIA OT Terron Armstead (Questionable, swear he has DNPs every week and plays – likely just done with practice at this point in his star-studded career – playing)
- MIA RB Raheem Mostert (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
CJ Mosley Out and Sauce Gardner likely missing this game? That’s only part of the equation here.
I’ll be straight up when it comes to this game – it’s tough to find Prop Overs on the board that I love. The Miami defence doesn’t give up much through the air, and the NYJ run game is a total mess with a Breece banged up and a committee now made up of Braelon Allen/Isaiah Davis (gross). Then – you look at the NYJ defence, and they looked a lot better coming off their Bye in a matchup with SEA last week. When you hold Geno Smith to under 250 pass yards and limit the RB tandem of K9/Charbonnet to under 90 scrimmage yards – things are looking up.
However – the NYJ defence can still be targeted with longer pass plays (especially with Sauce Out). While the SEA RBs didn’t exactly get going through the air vs the Jets last week, JSN and DK both had long receptions of 25+ yards, showing explosive plays are still on the table.
If you look at this NYJ defence on a recent-basis – you’ll realize this isn’t a new issue. Over their last 6 games, they’ve allowed 15.39 yards per reception to WRs. That would be the 2nd worst mark in the NFL if you look at season-long rankings, making it even more glaring that testing the NYJ D deep is the way to go.
Thing is – the books keep giving Tyreek a high long reception line, and the guy is inconsistent and a constant DNP at practice week-after-week due to the torn ligament in his wrist. He’ll play again this week, but he’s just not effective enough at his current status to justify that bet.
Jaylen Waddle, on the other hand, has been producing these intermediate-to-long catches at a high rate. Long receptions of 24+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games, where the only game he missed that mark, he still had a 15+ yard reception. Those are damn solid numbers for a guy that’s been looked at as “disappointing” this year.
And what about Achane? Well, while he may not be a WR by position – he sure plays like one. The guy has almost as many receiving yards (235) as he does rushing yards (316) in his last 6 games, and while he hasn’t broken off an extremely long one in that time period – he still has 4 of 6 games with a 14+ yard long reception.
In a game where Overs are tough to come by – lock in Waddle for one long catch over the middle, and Achane for a long catch-and-run out of the backfield. Hard to see this MIA team trying anything else on offence with a resurgent (yet banged up) Jets D on deck (where guys are quite literally playing for their jobs next year).
Game Two: Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Kirk Cousins Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIN CB Stephon Gilmore (Out)
- MIN LB Ivan Pace (IR)
- MIN Edge Andre Van Ginkel (Questionable, likely to play)
Fair – Cousins has looked pretty damn bad as of late. Also fair – his passing yard production hasn’t taken a big hit even with him looking poor, as he’s put up 245+ pass yards in 2 of his last 3 games, and 3 of his last 5.
I get the hesitancy to bet Cousins. But you have to look at how this MIN defence has performed this season to understand why Cousins is the play here. Minnesota continues to be a Top 5 rush defence in the NFL, allowing the 3rd least rush yards per game to RBs (65.4) to go along with 11th least receiving yards per game to RBs (29.75). Bijan is an amazing running back – but the MIN DC Flores scheme, with so many bodies up near the line, makes utilizing the RB difficult.
Then – we look at how the MIN D has done against QBs. The answer: not very good, as they’re allowing the 4th most pass yards per game (264.7) including recent performances such as 260 pass yards allowed to Kyler Murray last week, 340 pass yards allowed to Caleb Williams the week before, and 290 pass yards allowed to Will Levis the week before that. How about that for the “weak-link” in this otherwise strong defence?
If Cousins is going to have any more good performances for the rest of this year – it will be in this matchup. Old, but good, starting MIN CB Stephon Gilmore is Out in this one, and the ATL offence is as close to full-health as it’s going to get at this point in the season. Let this guy roll – even if ATL doesn’t win this game.
Pick: Drake London Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via Betano
Pick: Drake London Over 6.0 Receptions (-110) 1.10u via BetVictor
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIN CB Stephon Gilmore (Out)
- MIN LB Ivan Pace (IR)
- MIN Edge Andre Van Ginkel (Questionable, likely to play)
I just don’t know how Drake London could possibly fall under this line. The matchup, his recent production, and the consistency with which this stud holds onto the ball (only two drops on the season). Let’s get into it.
As I had pointed out last week, the Vikings D runs the most zone coverage in the NFL (over 80% of the time). When you look at ATL WRs and how they perform against zone coverage – London is the guy you want. He has 10 more receptions and 82 more receiving yards than the next ATL WR (Darnell Mooney) vs zone coverage, while Mooney actually has more receiving yards vs man coverage than London. Checkmark #1.
Then – how this MIN defence has done against opposing WR groups. Well – they’ve been bad there as well, allowing the 2nd most receiving yards per game to WRs (182.6) to go along with the 2nd most receptions per game to WRs (14.5). If you look recently – it’s those bigger, stronger WRs that are eating in matchups with the MIN D. Keenan Allen and Nick Westbrook Ikhine (both 6’2” and over 200 lbs) both went for 85+ receiving yards against this defence in recent weeks. My man London is in the same vein as those two. Checkmark #2.
Lastly – how solid London has been lately. 85+ receiving yards and 8+ receptions in 2 of his last 3 games, and one of those performances came in a tough matchup with the LAC defence. Even in the game where he missed those two marks – he still had over 60 receiving yards. Checkmark #3.
Lock this guy in for the double.
Pick: Sam Darnold Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- ATL CB Mike Hughes (Questionable, likely to play)
- MIN OG Dalton Risner (Questionable, likely to play)
Well – if I have the ATL pass-attack succeeding in this one – you know MIN is going to have to throw the ball at a high rate on offence. That’s especially the case with RB1 for the Vikes, Aaron Jones, looking worse week-after-week both on the ground and through the air. That means more Darnold – and man, he can take advantage of this matchup.
ATL’s defensive coverage stats may not look too bad season-long, as they’re allowing the 12th least pass yards per game on the year (225). However – their stats are inflated by some early-season cupcake matchups, as they’ve allowed 4 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to go for 248+ pass yards, with an average of 288.5 pass yards allowed per game over those 4 games. That’s bad, and those games were against very mediocre pass attacks like NO and DAL (where Cooper Rush played half the game).
Meanwhile – Darnold has been lighting it up on the stat sheet for this MIN offence. 7 straight games with 235+ pass yards is absurd, and there were some much tougher matchups he faced over that 7 game span. Things are looking alright with stud OT Darrisaw Out of the lineup, and the emergence of Hockenson as another option in the pass-game only makes things better.
The ATL defence has a tremendously difficult time getting pressure on the QB (6th lost QB pressure % in the NFL, under 19%), and Darnold has been picking teams apart if he has a clean pocket to throw from (over 72% completion rate and over 2,100 pass yards vs 56% completion rate and 809 pass yards when pressured). Lock it in.
Pick: Jordan Addison Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-108) 1.08u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- ATL CB Mike Hughes (Questionable, likely to play)
- MIN OG Dalton Risner (Questionable, likely to play)
We ran this Prop last week – and it came through nicely, as the Vikes played a Cardinals defence that plays the 7th most zone coverage in the NFL (73.5%). Well – this week, the Vikes are up against an Atlanta defence that plays the 2nd most zone coverage in the NFL (77.5%). The play in this MIN offence when it comes to zone coverage defences? Addison all day baby.
It really is crazy to me that Justin Jefferson has 200+ receiving yards more than Addison vs man coverage. Further, even WR3 Jalen Nailor has more receiving yards than Addison vs man coverage (105 to 91), and Hockenson isn’t too far behind with 89 receiving yards vs man coverage in only four games played this year.
However – the script flips when we look at zone coverage. Justin Jefferson may still be the clear leader in receiving yards vs zone (664), but Addison has respectable yardage vs zone at 417. Further, there is no other MIN pass-catcher that’s above 150 receiving yards vs zone coverage – making Addison and Jefferson the only two pass-catchers you should bet in this game.
I’m staying away from Jefferson again, as his receiving yardage line continues to climb to a number that’s tough to digest. That’s why we have Addison one more time this week. Wait for MIN to go against a defence that plays a lot of man coverage, then you can bet Jefferson.
Game Three: New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants
Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 122.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NO WRs Rasheed Shaheed and Chris Olave (IR)
- NO TE Taysom Hill (IR)
- NYG DT Dexter Lawrence (IR)
- NYG Starting DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Out)
- NYG CB Deonte Banks (Out)
- NYG CBs Cordale Flott and Dru Philips (Questionable, likely to play)
- NYG LB Bobby Okereke (Out)
Lock this in as one of those picks where everything lines up. Starting with this NYG defence.
The Giants defence? Surprisingly not too bad against the pass, as they allow the 6th least pass yards per game (213), along with the 13th least receiving yards per game to WRs (140) and the 2nd least receiving yards per game to TEs (35). I think you can primarily attribute these stats to two things: (i) the NYG secondary has been playing pretty well given expectation coming into this year; and (ii) the Giants are losing almost every game they’re in, allowing opposing offences to shift their focus to running the ball. Thing is – I expect the Saints to win this one with how they’ve looked lately (Vegas does too – Saints are 4.5 point favourites and the injuries to the NYG D weigh heavy) – and NO is devoid of any real talent in their WR room due to the Shaheed and Olave injuries.
You know what this NYG defence struggles against? RB production, as they’re allowing the 2nd most rush yards per game to RBs (118) to go along with the 7th most receiving yards per game to RBs (38.2). An average RB like Rico Dowdle can put up 120+ scrimmage yards vs this defence (as he did last week) – but an above average RB can go for 160+ scrimmage yards vs this defence (as Chuba Hubbard did three weeks ago). I might even be giving Chubba too much credit by calling him above-average – but the fact remains: no lead RB has gone for under 120+ scrimmage yards in the last 3 weeks against this defence. Gross.
And here, we get to bet on one of the best all-purpose RBs in the NFL, even at his advanced age. The last time Kamara was under 85 scrimmage yards – it was Week 7, and Spencer Rattler was starting. In Kamara’s last 5 games – he’s averaging 130.8 yards from scrimmage. That’s nasty work – and lines up very well for this smash-spot matchup. Let’s go.
Pick: Malik Nabers Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (+140) 1.0u via Pinnacle*
*Disregard this play if Nabers is Out – but if he’s a go, they’re going to use him.
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYG OT Jermaine Eleumanor (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- NYG WR Malik Nabers (Questionable, true question to play)
- NO CB Paulson Adebo (IR)
Okay – back on the Nabers train for another ride. It’s seemingly been a tough fall from grace for Nabers who started off the year on such a heater – but trust me, his line’s still worth taking in this one.
Let’s start with this NO defence. It’s a tough state of affairs for this NO secondary, as they traded away their best CB (Marshon Lattimore) and lost their 2nd best CB (Paulson Adebo) for the season in Week 7. They’ve been trying to get by with slot CB Alontae Taylor and Rookie CB Kool-Aid McKinstry – but it hasn’t been good.
Over the last 3 weeks – every WR group that’s faced NO has gone for 166 receiving yards or more. In 3 of the NO Ds last 5 games, they’ve allowed 215+ receiving yards to WRs. For a defence that went through the first 7 weeks of the year as a pretty decent coverage unit – things have slipped quite a bit, as they’re allowing the 5th most receiving yards per game to WRs in the NFL (176.7).
Onto the Giants offence. The plan is to start Drew Lock at QB again – and I’m relatively happy with that, as Nabers performed well with him last week in a tougher matchup vs DAL where he put up 69 receiving yards (nice) on 8 receptions. Regardless of the QB though – Nabers still performs at a stable level, as he has 59+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 outings.
Nabers is still troubled by a nagging groin injury – but when he’s out there, it’s impossible not to pass him the ball because of the separation he gets. Lock him in one more time.
Game Four: Carolina Panthers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 129.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.11u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CAR OLB Jadeveon Clowney (Out)
- CAR ILBs Josey Jewell and DJ Wonnum (Questionable, likely to play)
- PHI TE Dallas Goedert (IR)
I’m calling my shot in this one – blowout = incoming. That’s not a very hot take (Eagles are currently 12.5 point favourites over the Panthers), but it seems that number should be even higher, as the Eagles appear unbeatable at this point. There’s always the possibility that this could be a trap game – but even with the absurd line that Saquon’s getting here – I believe he gets more.
We all know the story with Saquon this year – yet his numbers still surprise me every time I look at them. Over 115 scrimmage yards in 6 of his last 7 games – that’s straight nasty. He continues to get 80+% of the backfield snaps and 85-90% of the backfield opportunities – and he’s absolutely gunning for that OPOY award as the clear leader in the clubhouse. With that all considered – it’d be a surprise to see him take a game-off against the worst rush defence in the League.
About that CAR defence – they are BY FAR the worst defence in the League when it comes to opposing RB production. They’re allowing 137.7 rush yards per game to RBs, almost 20 yards more (per game) than the 2nd worst mark in the League. Yikes. On top of that, this CAR D is allowing another 33.5 receiving yards per game to RBs, making it a relative lock that opposing RB rooms will exceed 150 scrimmage yards.
And I know – this CAR offence has been playing better, making it feasible they can push the score in this one for a more pass-heavy game script from PHI. But then you remember – they’re playing the PHI defence, who legitimately does not give up any production to offensive skill position players. You name the defensive stat – they’re top 10 in preventing production there. So expect an even more run-heavy game plan for PHI here.
Lastly – the Gainwell coverage. If you see this game getting out of hand like I do – it’s smart to have some insurance with Gainwell. It could be that this game is 35-10 in the 4th quarter – and at that point, it’s likely that PHI will want to save Saquon’s legs (at least to some extent). Gainwell has been 2nd in RB snaps on PHI the whole year, and prior to last week’s matchup vs BAL – he had 3 straight games over 20 rush yards. Not so bad for the minimal line we’re getting on him in this matchup.
I don’t usually bet two RB Overs for the same team – but when I do – it’s in a projected blowout against the worst rush defence in the NFL. Lock ’em in.
Game Five: Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) 1.20u via Bet99
Pick: George Pickens Over 28.5 Yards Longest Reception (-107) 1.07u via Pinnacle*
*Again – if Pickens is playing, this is a full-go. If he’s out, just take it off the board.
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CLE WR Cedrick Tillman (Out)
- CLE S Juan Thornhill (Questionable, likely to play)
- PIT WR George Pickens (Questionable, expected to play but still a GTD)
You know what it is when these two AFC North Rivals go at it – cold weather, offensive struggles, and weird overall games – where it feels like either team always has a chance to win. With all of that said – I’m staying away from any volume based plays like yardage or reception lines. Instead – let’s attack the lines where we know both of these defences can be had – on the deep ball.
It shouldn’t be news to anyone that’s read my previous articles – but let me state it again. The CLE defence is solid in many respects – but they’re giving up the highest yards per reception mark to opposing WRs in the NFL. They’re allowing an average of 16.36 yards per reception – and the 2nd worst team in the NFL (LA Rams) aren’t even close in comparison (14.68, and the Bears are right under them at 14.50). Quite frankly – that’s absurd separation (and not in a good way). Last week – Marvin Mims and Courtland Sutton both went for 30+ yard long receptions. The week prior? Well, I’ll get to that.
But it’s not only the CLE defence with a propensity to allow longer pass completions – as the same goes for the PIT defence. While the PIT D is only allowing 150.25 receiving yards per game to WRs (15th most, middle-of-the-pack), they’re allowing the 7th most receiving yards per reception to WRs (13.56). Last week – Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins both had 30+ yard long receptions against this defence. The week prior? Well, I’m still getting to that.
Okay – now to my point on the week prior for both defences. It’s important to note that these teams played each other just two short weeks ago in Week 12 (the crazy snow-globe game in Cleveland). Even with the conditions in that game – both Jeudy and Pickens had 25+ yard receptions. Not only that, but Jeudy has had a long reception of 26+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games – and Pickens is right there with him with a long reception of 31+ yards in 6 of his last 7.
I don’t know how much more these mismatches can align – but I know these guys are going to have chances to convert on deep shots with how often Jameis and Russ let that thing buck.
Game Six: Las Vegas Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Cade Otton Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.09u via Coolbet
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- TB WR Chris Godwin (IR)
- TB TB Bucky Irving (Questionable, likely to play based on reports)
- TB LBs KJ Britt and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Out)
- TB S Mike Edwards (Out)
- TB slot CB Tykee Smith (Questionable, likely to play)
- LV RBs Alex Mattison & Zamir White (Out)
- LV Slot CB Nate Hobbs (Out)
- LV WR Jakobi Meyers (Questionable, true question to play)
How about this little pairing hiding in the early slate? These are two great TEs (Brock is in his own tier obviously), and the matchup couldn’t be better for either guy. TE duel anyone?
Really though – both of these defences are horrendous when it comes to pass coverage on TEs. In fact – they’re both tied for allowing the 2nd most receiving yards per game to TEs (66.7), with the Bucs D only marginally better when it comes to receptions allowed to TEs per game (5.50 vs 6.17). Any way you cut it – these LB/S cores can’t cover the middle of the field when the big pass-catchers are in the game.
For the Raiders defence – things have been as bad as ever lately. They’ve allowed 4 of the last 5 TE rooms they’ve faced to surpass 100 receiving yards – and the only TE group that didn’t was Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull on DEN. Ipso facto – if you have a good TE, feed him the ball and you’ll succeed.
The Buccaneers defence – not as bad lately – but in 7 of their last 9 games, they’ve allowed opposing TE groups to go for 70+ receiving yards – which included TE rooms like the Panthers, the Falcons, and the Saints. Not one of those teams has a TE close in skill to Bowers (sorry Taysom Hill, I’m not a believer).
And then you look at Bowers’ and Otton’s production level – and this is getting to smash-spot territory. Bowers has been a straight killer, ripping off two games of 125+ receiving yards over his last three games. Otton – a little more disappointing with Mike Evans back in the lineup (under 40 receiving yards in his last 3 games). Nonetheless – two of those matchups were against Top 5 defences in TE pass coverage (SF & NYG), and his line has shrunk to the current number because of his struggles.
I’m not saying this is a fool-proof way to bet this game – but it is damn close.
Game Seven: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tony Pollard Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (assassinated by Al-Shaair, IR)
- JAX CB Tyson Campbell (Questionable, likely to play)
Yes – we rode the same play last week in a good matchup vs the WAS defence – and it didn’t come through. I wasn’t wrong – I was just early. In reality, that WAS game was such a clusterfuck with the Commanders up by 28 before the half, it was almost impossible to believe Pollard could hit his line. And yet – he still came close, with 68 scrimmage yards in the worst game-script possible.
Don’t expect a game-script like that in this one. The Jags offence has been absolutely anemic with Mac Jones as the starter, and although this TEN defence may give up a lot of points – they’re really good at preventing teams from moving down the field. With the Jags D struggling to find TOs all year (2nd lowest Turnover % in the NFL), I don’t expect them to have many short-fields like the Commanders did last week.
And this Jags D – man they’re struggling in all aspects. But especially with production to opposing RBs, where they’ve given up over 100 rush yards to every RB room they’ve faced in their last 5 matchups. Further, let’s just set out those 5 games and pair them with the scrimmage yards RBs put up in those games:
- Week 13 vs HOU: 120 scrimmage yards
- Week 11 vs DET: 248 scrimmage yards
- Week 10 vs MIN: 166 scrimmage yards
- Week 9 vs PHI: 209 scrimmage yards
- Week 8 vs GB: 145 scrimmage yards
You’re starting to get the idea, right?
The crazy thing is – Pollard fumbled early in that last game vs WSH – yet he still ended up with over 85% of the RB opportunities in this TEN backfield. Tyjae Spears is not a concern to Pollard’s volume and production, and Pollard just had 129 scrimmage yards the week before last in a tougher matchup in HOU.
Lock it in.
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 1.05u via Bet99
Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (assassinated by Al-Shaair, IR)
- JAX CB Tyson Campbell (Questionable, likely to play)
God – I hope I’m not too late to the party with Westbrook-Ikhine here. Thing is – both these guys are proven burners at this point in the season. With TEN projected to win, leading to a game-script that may be more run-game heavy – we’re going long-reception lines – as you really can’t count on either of these pass-catchers to have big volume days.
I mean, really – look at this. Ridley has been the less impressive of the two when it comes to deep shots lately, as he has long receptions of 30+ yards in 5 of his last 7 games – and the two games he missed that mark, he still had long receptions of 20+ yards. Westbrook-Ikhine on the other hand – has long receptions of 27+ yards in 3 straight games. That’s nasty work for a WR that wasn’t on anyone’s radar prior to the season – and if Levis continues to be the starting QB, you can count on at least a few deep shots for each of these guys every game (he has a 20+ yard pass attempt % that’s higher than Caleb Williams, Geno Smith, Matt Stafford, and CJ Stroud – to name a few).
On the other side of the coin – this JAX defence just can’t get their intermediate/long pass coverage figured out. They’re allowing the 6th most receiving yards per reception to WRs in the NFL (13.69), where they recently allowed both Nico Collins and Tank Dell to go for long receptions of 23+ yards. The week before that – the Jags D gave up 27+ yard long receptions to Amon Ra and Jamo. The proof is all there for everyone to see – and I think it will be within the gameplan of the Titans to test this secondary down the field.
Game Eight: Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Geno Smith Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- SEA RB Kenneth Walker (Out)
- ARI DT Bilal Nichols and Edge Dennis Gardeck (IR)
Bounce-back game for Geno? You bet your ass. And I’m tagging that one along with his new favourite target to go for another big game. Let’s get into it.
We’ll start with Geno. A gunslinger if I ever saw one, the guy is still top 5 in the NFL in passing yards (3,241), and that’s coming off a stinker last week vs a renewed Jets secondary (in a very weird game, with defensive and special teams scores both ways). Prior to that game – Geno had 3 straight games over 220 pass yards, with an average of 279.3 pass yards per game over that period.
Actually – one of those games was against the Cardinals defence, where Geno had over 250 pass yards in a tight win. That’s about on par with how ARI has done on the year vs the pass, as they’re allowing the 14th most pass yards per game (235). They’re consistently right around that mark, with a secondary that’s coached well, but is lacking in talent/skill. At this line, with the Cardinals projected to win the game (2.5 point favourites), I’m betting on Geno to move this SEA offence through the air – as their run game has been anything but impressive as of late (and stud RB K9 is Out).
So that covers Geno – but what about JSN? Well, JSN has been king of the SEA WR room for the past few weeks, where he’s had 74+ receiving yards in each of his last 4 games (including 77 receiving yards vs this Cardinals defence recently). The guy may be a slot merchant – but he does it very well. Further, while ARI slot CB Garrett Williams has a good PFF coverage grade – he had his best PFF grade of the season vs JSN – and there was still production to be had with this stud.
Moving to the Cardinals defence against WRs – it’s bad lately. They’re allowing the 10th most receiving yards per game to WRs (153.67), but the consistency with which they give this yardage up is what really gets them. 7 of the last 9 WR rooms to face this ARI D have put up 160+ receiving yards – and with Lockett falling out of favour (only 47% of snaps last week) and DK somewhat banged up through the week – it all goes together.
Pick: James Conner Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- SEA CB Tre Brown (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
The main hole in this SEA defence? Pass-catching RBs. The main pass-catching RB on ARI? Clearly James Conner (despite not fitting the profile of a pass-catching back). Sometimes – you just have to keep things simple.
Again – it’s not a matter of SEA leading the NFL in receiving yards per game allowed to RBs (as they’re right in the middle-of-the-pack with 33.92 per game) – it’s the consistency with which they give up yardage. Over their past 3 games, they’ve given up 39+ receiving to each RB room they’ve faced. Further, they’ve allowed 7 of the last 10 RB rooms they’ve faced to exceed 39 receiving yards in a game, making it clear this has been an issue for a pretty long time – yet they’re not addressing it.
Regarding James Conner – the guy has been eating up receiving yards and receptions at an unprecedented level based on his historical profile. He’s on pace to have his most receptions and receiving yards since he was a Rookie in Pittsburgh in 2018 – pure craziness. The proof is in the box-score though – in 2 of his last 3 games, he’s had 40+ receiving yards (including 41 receiving yards vs this SEA defence in Week 12). In his last 7 games, Conner is averaging 33.6 receiving yards per game, and has never fallen below 2 receptions in any of those games.
With the SEA defence tightening things up in the secondary and against the run – this is the pick I’m going with.
Game Nine: Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers
I honestly can’t find an Over Prop I like for this game – it was going to be Guerrendo Over Rushing Yards – as that was the only clear hole I could see on either defence. But half of SF’s starting OLine is Out (including their most important piece at LT, Trent Williams). No bueno.
Game Ten: Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Amari Cooper Over 19.5 Yards Longest Reception (-102) 1.02u via Pinnacle
Pick: Khalil Shakir Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-106) 1.06u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAR Edge Jared Verse (Questionable, likely to play)
- BUF TE Dalton Kincaid (Questionable, not expected to play)
- BUG WR Keon Coleman (Questionable, true question to play)
It really is just this simple – I expect the Bills to win this game quite easily – but it’s not just going to be through big-time gashes offensively in the run game. There’s a reason that the Rams defence is allowing the 2nd highest WR receiving yards per reception mark in the NFL (14.68). The secondary lacks high quality assets.
And look no further than these two BUF pass-catchers when you talk about high quality assets. You can say what you want about Shakir’s lack of game-breaking ability, and maybe Amari hasn’t produced the numbers everyone thought he might put up when he got traded to BUF. But c’mon now.
I’m not even saying that BUF will rely on the pass game in this one (even though I think the Rams keep it close with their explosive offence). In fact, I think the Bills rush attack will cram it up the collective LAR cramhole (after all, the Rams are allowing the 5th most rush yards per game to RBs this year at 116.42). BUT – that doesn’t mean that the Bills will completely stray from a clear weakness of the Rams defence. I’m expecting a few longshots in this one, and these are the prime guys to have the most opportunities at em.
“Hips don’t lie” Shakir? 18+ yard long receptions in 5 of his last 6 games, even if you wouldn’t think it because the guy’s so reliable underneath in the slot. Amari Cooper? Sure, his numbers are at an all-time low – but he’s still got 27+ yard receptions in 2 of his last 4 games (all with the Bills), and this is a prime matchup, in a dome at Sofi, with Josh Allen as the QB. Lock it in.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Fourteen: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Sunday Game
Game One: New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 19.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet365
Pick: De’Von Achane Over 14.5 Yards Longest Reception (+100) 1.0u via Bet99
Game Two: Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Kirk Cousins Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Pick: Drake London Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via Betano
Pick: Drake London Over 6.0 Receptions (-110) 1.10u via BetVictor
Pick: Sam Darnold Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Jordan Addison Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-108) 1.08u via Betano
Game Three: New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants
Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 122.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betano
Pick: Malik Nabers Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (+140) 1.0u via Pinnacle*
Game Four: Carolina Panthers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 129.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.11u via NorthStar
Game Five: Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) 1.20u via Bet99
Pick: George Pickens Over 28.5 Yards Longest Reception (-107) 1.07u via Pinnacle*
Game Six: Las Vegas Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Cade Otton Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.09u via Coolbet
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Game Seven: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tony Pollard Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 1.05u via Bet99
Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Game Eight: Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Geno Smith Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Bet365
Pick: James Conner Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Game Nine: Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers
I honestly can’t find an Over Prop I like for this game – it was going to be Guerrendo Over Rushing Yards – as that was the only clear hole I could see on either defence. But half of SF’s starting OLine is Out (including their most important piece at LT, Trent Williams). No bueno.
Game Ten: Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Amari Cooper Over 19.5 Yards Longest Reception (-102) 1.02u via Pinnacle
Pick: Khalil Shakir Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-106) 1.06u via Pinnacle