How can you not love that stacked week of NFL Football in Week 13? Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday action kept us busy – but man, it was well worth it to have even more exciting moments through this season. Our ability to read the script has been spot-on as of late – and this week was no different. A +12.6 unit performance (+$1,260 if you’re a $100 unit bettor) on 42 Player Prop Overs for Week 13. We crushed the board, up and down – and that adds up to almost $4,800 profit on the year (176-122 record):
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Fourteen: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
Pick: Jared Goff Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-112) 1.12u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET OT Taylor Decker (Out)
- DET WR Khalif Raymond (IR)
- GB LB Edgerrin Cooper (Out)
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (Out)
This honestly wasn’t my first read on the board initially – but as I thought more about the current state of the Lions – this became a lock in my mind. Let’s get to why.
The first part of this equation is the injuries to Detroit’s defence. 3 of their top 4 inside LBs: Out. Their best edge rusher (Hutchinson) and inside run/stuffer (DJ Reader): Out. If the GB offence can put up 25+ points in this game (which is probable in a QB-friendly environment with the dome in DET), it’s likely that the DET offence will have to go more pass-heavy. I believe they’ll still lean on the run, as they always do with Monty and Gibbs. However, the Packers defence has been solid against the run as of late (held McCaffrey and Achane to under 35 rush yards respectively in the last two weeks). Therefore – game-script has me leaning to Goff.
But it’s not only that. We then have to look at how this Packers defence has defended the pass – specifically as of late. And it’s quite interesting. In 2 of their last 5 games, they’ve held the opposing QB to under 200 passing yards. BUT – we have to consider the context and look beyond the numbers. Those two QB performances included: (i) the game against backup SF QB Brandon Allen in Week 12, and (ii) the snow-game vs Goff in the frozen tundra that is Lambeau field. The other 3 games in that 5 game span? The Packers D gave up an average of 301.3 pass yards per game to QBs like Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, and Tua Tagovailoa.
If I was a betting man (which I obviously am), I’d say that the first Goff game vs GB in the Wisconsin cold/snow will not happen again, as the Lions dominated that game on defence, keeping the score low, and rushed for over 140 yards as a team.
It also definitely doesn’t hurt that Pro-Bowl GB CB Jaire Alexander is missing another contest here, and with Goff averaging 285.5 pass yards per game over his last 4 outings, I’m feeling very comfortable with this line. Hit it.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (+106) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET OT Taylor Decker (Out)
- DET WR Khalif Raymond (IR)
- GB LB Edgerrin Cooper (Out)
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (Out)
You knew that if I was taking Goff’s Over passing yards – I’d be latching on to his #1 target in the pass-game as well. While the Sun God hasn’t been burning very bright as of late – he has been solid, and he has all the upside in the world in a matchup like this.
Let’s start with the GB pass defence as it relates to WR production. You might think I’m crazy with this one, as the GB D is allowing the 7th least receiving yards per game to WRs on the season (130.3) to go along with the 8th least receptions per game to WRs (10.75). Thing is – we have to look deeper at how things have gone lately. And man – there is production to be had for opposing WRs vs this GB secondary.
Again – I’m throwing out the SF Brandon Allen game and the snow game vs DET in Week 9 (though DET WRs still had 11 receptions in that one, not bad). In Green Bay’s other 3 games (of their last 5), the defence allowed the following totals to opposing WR rooms: 153 receiving yards on 13 receptions to MIA last week, 168 receiving yards on 17 receptions to CHI in Week 11, and 185 receiving yards on 9 receptions to JAX in Week 8. I don’t know about you – but that looks pretty juicy to me.
Again, we consider the Jaire Alexander injury for this pick too – and Amon Ra’s production is the cherry on top. He has 5 straight games over 55 receiving yards, and in 2 of those matchups, he had 70+ receiving yards. Further, in each of the last 5 games, he has: (i) at least 7 targets, (ii) at least 5 receptions, and (iii) at least one reception of 15+ yards. It’s not like he’s been the world-beater that he was consistently through last year, but he’s been very good, and he hasn’t had to carry the load in many games with the DET defence performing so well.
DET’s defence – shouldn’t perform particularly well tonight. And on top of all that – Jamo got benched last week with an understandable (but still dumb) unsportsmanlike penalty, and Gibbs might have a little dog-house treatment on deck with his goal-line fumble last week (combined with his blunder on social media this week).
The most safe, and most advantageous, play on the board is Brown here. Ride with us.
Pick: Jordan Love Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET – All starting ILBs outside of Jack Campbell (IR)
- DET DE Josh Paschal (Out)
- DET DTs DJ Reader and Levi Onwuzurike (Out)
- DET DE Aidan Hutchinson (IR)
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (IR)
- GB WR Romeo Doubs (Out)
I just couldn’t bring myself to pick any Packers WR in this one when it comes to their prop overs. Sure, any one of these GB pass-catchers can go off in this one – but the variance is way too high with the way targets are distributed in this offence.
Nonetheless – we can go with a stellar stack of studs on this GB offence to get the job done. Let’s start with J Love and his juicy matchup.
While the DET defence is suffering from injuries primarily to their front seven (DLine and LBs) – that affects the pass-game for this defence more than you know. DC Aaron Glenn loves to run his DBs out in man coverage, allowing the pass-rush to get to work with a reliance on QB pressure so pass plays don’t develop further down the field. The issue: DET no longer has a solid pass-rush. The loss of Hutchinson was tough, but then add in the injury to DJ Reader and the force that he is moving the IOL back into the QB – and things get even more dicey.
But it’s not like this defensive scheme was even solid at stopping opposing QBs prior to those injuries. There’s a reason they give up the 8th most pass yards per game (243.7), where they’ve only held 2 of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced to under 230 pass yards (and those two QBs were Mac Jones and ARich). Caleb Williams lit this DET secondary up in the second half last week to the tune of 256 pass yards, and Will Levis & Sam Darnold both had 250+ pass yards in earlier matchups. Hell, even in that freezing game in Lambeau vs the Lions (Week 9) – Love went for 273 pass yards.
Diving further into Love’s recent pass-game production – things couldn’t look any better. The guy has 260+ pass yards in 3 of his last 4 games, which includes matchups vs CHI and MIA (both are among the Top 10 in limiting pass yards to opposing QBs on the year). This guy slings the rock – and I’d expect him to do it at a high rate in this one with DET staying in the game due to their own explosive offence.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET – All starting ILBs outside of Jack Campbell (IR)
- DET DE Josh Paschal (Out)
- DET DTs DJ Reader and Levi Onwuzurike (Out)
- DET DE Aidan Hutchinson (IR)
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (IR)
- GB WR Romeo Doubs (Out)
You can consider this pick as coverage for the Love pick if GB commits heavily to the ground game with this depleted DET front on defence. However – I believe both these picks can hit quite easily (even if the matchup on paper isn’t amazing). Let’s get to why.
Yes – the Lions defence is allowing the 4th least rush yards per game to RBs (66.25) and the 7th least receiving yards per game to RBs (24.6) to go with it. Also yes – Jacobs went for 110+ all-purpose yards vs this DET defence in Week 9, and the week prior to that, TEN RB Tony Pollard had 115+ scrimmage yards vs DET. Sure, the Lions defence has held 3 straight RB rooms under 40 yards rushing and 80 yards from scrimmage. However – the lead backs in those offences were: (i) De’Andre Swift, (ii) Jonathan Taylor (who has looked anything but elite after coming back from injury), and (iii) Travis Etienne. Not super impressive.
And now – the glue that holds this whole rush defence together, DET DT DJ Reader, is Out for the first time this year. Colour me crazy – but that seems like a good matchup for Jacobs after considering how he’s been producing (both on the ground and through the air) lately.
Jacobs’ last 5 games – over 100 scrimmage yards in each one. It could come like it did last week, where Jacobs was held in-check on the ground (43 rush yards on 19 attempts) but got it through the air (4 receptions for 74 receiving yards). It could also come like it did the previous week, where Jacobs killed it on the ground (106 rush yards on 26 attempts) but was limited in the pass game (only 1 target and no receptions). Regardless – GB wants to get the ball in this playmaker’s hands – and I don’t see that changing tonight.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Fourteen: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
Pick: Jared Goff Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-112) 1.12u via Coolbet
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (+106) 1.0u via Coolbet
Pick: Jordan Love Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via Betano
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Sports Interaction