Well – what a great week of NFL Football in Week 13. We consistently put up winning weeks throughout the season – and this week was no different. A +8.6 unit performance (+$860 if you’re a $100 unit bettor) on 38 Player Prop Overs for Week 13. We assaulted the board with good reads – and that adds up to almost $4,400 profit on the year (172-122 record):
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Thirteen: MNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-119) 1.19u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DEN WR Josh Reynolds (IR – likely returning this week with FPs all week)
- CLE S Juan Thornhill (Out)
- CLE LB Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (IR)
Even though the CLE defence is a prime-spot for Sutton to put up endless production (he’s Over 70 receiving in 5 straight games), I’m not exactly sold on him having a ton of volume tonight. I’m of the opinion that things might get tough on a snap-to-snap basis with Sutton matched up with Pro Bowl CB Denzel Ward most plays. After all – the Browns D only allows the 8th most receiving yards per game to WRs (157) – and they’ve held 4 of the last 5 WR rooms to Under 180 receiving yards.
The thing is – this CLE D has a tough time passing-on coverage assignments late in WR routes. Look no further than this defence being the WORST in the NFL at guarding intermediate/long passes, giving up an NFL-high 15.86 yards per reception to WRs on the year. The scheme seems to be more of an issue than personnel for this defence – but it definitely doesn’t hurt our chances to have starting Safety Juan Thornhill Out in this one (an experienced over-the-top defender that may prevent deep shots).
And then – you look at Sutton. Man, this guy has been on a burner – but it’s not so long ago that he was under 70 yards receiving in every game he played (through the first 7 weeks). On top of that, Josh Reynolds is likely re-entering this lineup after an extended IR stint. Reynolds is, at the very least, the WR2/WR3 in this offence – and I don’t think this DEN team is going to put Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele, or Lil’Jordan Humphrey on the bench. That measures out to less volume for Sutton in this one, with DEN projected to win the game (which correlates with DEN throwing the ball less).
HOWEVER – Sutton can still hit a deep shot in this matchup. And I think it’s very likely – with Sutton having 19+ yard long receptions in each of his 5 most recent games. Further, in 3 of those 5 games, he’s put up 30 yards or more as a long reception mark.
Lock this guy in – he’s going to pop off for one long shot.
Pick: Bo Nix Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DEN WR Josh Reynolds (IR – likely returning this week with FPs all week)
- CLE S Juan Thornhill (Out)
- CLE LB Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (IR)
While I can’t exactly predict which one of these DEN pass-catchers will go off w/ volume – I can take a stab at Bo Nix producing big.
Will DEN even be able to run the ball in this one? Nobody is feeling confident that Javonte Williams is an RB1 (though he looked like it in his Rookie season), and McLaughlin and Estime don’t have the skill to be an above-average NFL runner. On top of all that – the CLE defence is only allowing 84 rush yards per game to RBs (9th best mark in the NFL), and on average, this D limits opposing RB rooms to 110 scrimmage yards (Top 5 mark in NFL). So where will the Broncos offence turn?
They’ll turn to the guy that’s been carrying them through games as of late, as Rookie QB Nix now has Over 270 pass yards in 3 of his last 5 games. The two games he didn’t hit that mark, were against solid overall teams in Baltimore and KC. Yet in both those games – he still cleared 215 pass yards.
Now – we have a minimal line for Nix – especially when you think about how this CLE defence has defended the pass-game this year (over 230 pass yards allowed per game). Starting Safety Thornhill Out for the Browns – Bo Nix full-steam ahead.
Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 4.5 Receptions (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CLE OT Jedrick Wills (Out)
- CLE WR Cedrick Tillman (Out)
- DEN Slot CB Riley Moss (Out)
- DEN LB Alec Singleton (IR)
Well – Tillman Out, DEN slot CB Out, and Jeudy playing primarily in the slot as of late (16 slot snaps last game – by far the most of CLE pass-catchers). Yup – this one’s too easy.
But there’s more to this one than meets the eye. Unless you have Jeudy on your fantasy team – you may not know how good this guy’s been as of late.
Over 5 receptions and 70+ receiving yards in 4 straight games – and some of those matchups were against defences with good/average pass-coverage acumens (LAC & PIT are both outside of the Bottom 10 defences in receiving yards per game allowed to WRs).
Well – now Jeudy has a tough matchup (on paper) with a DEN defence that’s allowing the 8th least receiving yards per game to WRs (135). But as I said – the starting slot CB for Denver, Riley Moss, is missing in this one – leaving Jeudy with the only exploitable matchup on the board.
It’s not like CLE will be able to run the ball effectively against this DEN D (5th least rush yards per game allowed to RBs at 78), as Nick Chubb has lost his “elite” status due to father-time.
Lock in Jeudy to have a big one – he might be the only CLE WR that does.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Thirteen: MNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-119) 1.19u via Pinnacle
Pick: Bo Nix Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 4.5 Receptions (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Betano