Week 13 of the NFL is here – and most of us are still in a stupor, trying to digest all that wonderful Thanksgiving food from this past week. Well – I hope in your sleepy state that you were still keeping up with our articles – as we absolutely smoked the Thursday and Friday NFL offerings for a 10-2 record and +7.35 units ($735 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor):
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee ($20 per month) on that site. We will still be sharing a free preview (all TNF and MNF plays) here on our site, and on Moneyline – but full analysis for my 20+ player props every Sunday will be subscription only.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Thirteen: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Sunday Game – Free Preview
Game One: Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Joe Mixon Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- HOU WR Xavier Hutchinson (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- JAX CB Tyson Campbell (No injury designation; LP all week)
- JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (Questionable, likely to play based on reports)
Time to mix it up with the clear bellcow RB1 for the Texans. However – we aren’t shooting for the stars with his over rushing line – for a few reasons. Let’s get into it.
First off – the JAX defence. Full disclosure: they aren’t very good at stopping the run. They allow the 11th most rush yards per game to RBs (103.82), and things have looked even worse lately:
- Week 11 vs DET: 174 rush yards allowed
- Week 10 vs MIN: 144 rush yards allowed
- Week 9 vs PHI: 168 rush yards allowed
- Week 8 vs GB: 148 rush yards allowed
That’s pretty gross. However – let’s take some context into account for these numbers: (i) all four of those teams have good/great OLines with stud RBs, (ii) all four of those teams have good/great defences, allowing for a more favourable run-heavy game-script, and (iii) in 2 of those games, Mac Jones was the JAX starting QB, where the game-script again called for a more run-heavy approach from opposing offences.
Now let’s just compare all of those points to the Texans and Mixon. They: (i) have a below-average OLine (mostly due to their IOL struggles), (ii) have a pretty mediocre defence (15th in PAPG), and (iii) the Jags have Trevor Lawrence back starting at QB. So off the hop – they don’t fit the profile of teams that dominate the Jags D on the ground.
Then – we look to Mixon’s recent rushing production. He was absolutely ripping from Weeks 6 to 9 with four straight 100+ rush yard games. In his last 3 outings? 22 rush yards, 109 rush yards, and 44 rush yards. That’s a far-cry from his earlier production.
So we look back at the Jags defence – and would you look at that: they’re allowing the 3rd most receiving yards per game to RBs (48.82). In 7 of their last 9 games, this Jags D has allowed 40+ receiving yards to opposing RB rooms. Mixon was at 23+ receiving yards in each of his last 3 games, to go along with averaging 37 receiving yards per game over that span.
With TLaw back in the lineup – I believe the Jags will be able to score some points in this one. That gives more opportunities for Stroud to sling it, and with Mixon’s usage in the pass game + this juicy matchup – we’re locking in.
Pick: Nico Collins Over 27.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Pick: Tank Dell Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 1.05u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- HOU WR Xavier Hutchinson (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- JAX CB Tyson Campbell (No injury designation; LP all week)
- JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (Questionable, likely to play based on reports)
Oooooeee – we’re getting nasty in this one. While I’m tentative to bet on continuous volume and numerous opportunities for these HOU WRs – I’m very comfortable taking their long reception lines. Let’s get into why.
The first point – HOU OC Bobby Slowick refuses to compromise his offensive scheme for the HOU interior OLine struggles. We’ve seen many coaches in the NFL make adjustments to their offensive play-calling/game-plan due to pass-blocking issues – but not Bobby. The guy doesn’t give a fuck that his Guards and Center can’t block – he’s still going to run intermediate/deep concepts at a high rate.
There’s no better evidence of this than to look at both Dells’ and Collins’ longest reception totals as of late. In 3 of Dells’ last 4 games, he’s had a long reception of 26 yards or more (50, 26, 39). In all 7 games Collins has played this year – he has a long reception of 26 yards or more (55, 28, 34, 26, 67, 33, 56). It really doesn’t matter the matchup – as both these WRs have explosive playmaking ability with a scheme that caters to 20+ yard receptions.
But then we get to the matchup with this Jags D. The Jags allow the 4th most receiving yards per game to WRs (183), but if you look deeper at the numbers, things don’t look so rosy for opposing WRs. That figure is inflated by the 348 receiving yards allowed to DET WRs in Week 11 – as this Jags D had held opposing WR rooms to an average of 123.8 receiving yards per game in the five games prior (that would be the 3rd lowest mark on the year season-long).
However – the Jags do allow the 6th highest yards per reception to WRs (13.64), showing they’re susceptible to longer passes. On top of that – they’ve performed even worse in this statistical area as of late, with 15.52 yards per reception allowed to WRs over their past 5 games (that would be the 2nd highest mark season-long). With all of that considered – how do you not bet these WRs to catch a deep one? I sure am.
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-118) 1.18u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (Questionable, likely to play based on reports)
- JAX WRs Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis (IR)
- HOU S Jalen Pitre (Out)
- HOU DT Folorunso Fatukasi (Out)
Four different picks in one game? What can I say – this game has the possibility of being a low-key banger. And man – nobody needs a get-right performance as much as BTJ in this Jags offence.
Brian Thomas Jr. was looking like a possible contender for OROY early in the season, with some very impressive showings in an offence that didn’t have much going for it. Then – he got injured with the chest injury, which correlated with Trevor Lawrence hitting the bench to rest up his shoulder. Fact of the matter is – with Lawrence back in this game, the HOU defence can be taken advantage of.
Fair play to the HOU defence – they’re pretty good against the pass as a whole. They only allow the 10th most receiving yards per game to WRs (156.42), and they’ve consistently held WR groups to 200 yards receiving or less (in 9 of 11 games this year). However – they are allowing the 5th most yards per reception to WRs (13.70), and have allowed over 14.5 yards per reception in 3 of their last 5 games. Good news for intermediate/deep routes from opposing offences.
The key to this pick – how good BTJ has been at converting the deep ball. As I said above – he’s had his struggles lately (long receptions of 24, 10, and 16 yards the last 3 weeks – 2 of which were with Mac Jones). However, if you look at the stretch of games just prior to that, he had 4 of 5 games with a long reception of 28 yards or more. That’s pretty sick – and with nobody else in this Jags WR room (Davis and Kirk on IR), I’m guessing there’s more to come this week.
Well, that’s it for the free preview. If you want the full 25+ player props for this weekend, subscribe to Plus Money J at the link for only $5 per week: https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ