We have the whole morning slate covered for today in the first part of this Week 5 NFL betting series – the intro and 12 player props for the morning slate are all there – with a lot of mismatch data that will get you ready for this article:
So – no need to go back over it, let’s keep on with some more winners.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Five Sunday Best Bets – Afternoon + SNF Slate
Game One: Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Pick: Bo Nix Over 186.5 Passing Yards (-114) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LV WR Davante Adams (Out)
- LV DE Maxx Crosby (Questionable)
- LV LB Divine Diablo (Questionable)
- LV TE Michael Mayer (Out)
- LV OT Thayer Munford (Out)
- LV OG Dylan Parham (Questionable)
- LV RB Zamir White (Out)
What a gross injury list for LV – and an even worse PFF pass coverage grade to boot (33.7 grade, next worst is WAS at 46.1 – what a disparity). Facts are this – the LV pass-rush struggles without their main man Maxx Crosby in the lineup (I’d say he plays, but not at 100%). However, the rush defence is pretty damn solid (actually 1st in PFF grading, wow) – making the passing game the only way a team can move on this defence. Well – that works good for the Broncos, as the RB duo of Javonte+Jaleel had yet to surpass 50 rush yards until last week against a weak run defence in the NYJ.
This one will likely play out similar to the DEN games against PIT and TB – where the secondaries are exploitable and the rush defences are stout. In both those games – Nix had over 200 yards passing, with relative success all over the field. This looks to be another spot he can take advantage of the defence – let it rip Bo.
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LV WR Davante Adams (Out)
- LV DE Maxx Crosby (Questionable)
- LV LB Divine Diablo (Questionable)
- LV TE Michael Mayer (Out)
- LV OT Thayer Munford (Out)
- LV OG Dylan Parham (Questionable)
- LV RB Zamir White (Out)
WTF – doubling up on the DEN offence? The situation is that good for the DEN pass-catchers, where Sutton is the clear leader and has a decent matchup to boot. If you look at the Raiders secondary – slot CB Nate Hobbs is actually 4th best of the group in receiving yards allowed, holding his own on the inside. That’s quite alright, as Sutton takes the majority of his snaps from the outside. There – he should be able to take advantage of the three DBs ahead of Hobbs on the list.
Further – Sutton’s target totals this year show he’s the primary read on a lot of pass attempts. 34 targets through 4 games – almost doubles the next leading pass-catcher for DEN. And his line remains low, as a lot of those targets haven’t been converted against much better pass defences in the NYJ and SEA (in those two games, he had 20 targets for a mere 7 receptions). I expect a game for Sutton similar to his game against Tampa – where he had 7 catches for 68 receiving yards. Lock him in – it’s time.
Game Two: Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Jordan Mason Over 81.5 Rush Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SF DE Yetur Gross-Matos (IR)
- SF TE George Kittle (Questionable)
- SF LB Fred Warner (Questionable)
- ARI CB Garrett Williams (Out)
- ARI OT Kelvin Beachum (Questionable)
Maybe this is too square a pick – but c’mon now. Jordan Mason has been absolutely toting the rock as of late on this SF offence (19+ rush attempts in every game this season). He remains healthy, and his output (447 rush yards) matches the workload – straight stud.
A lot of this comes down to the SF OLine. PFF has a tool that shows the biggest mismatches between OLines and DLines when it comes to the run & the pass. This SF OLine has a +43% run blocking advantage over this AZ DLine – good for the biggest mismatch of the week in the NFL. The running lanes should open with ease – and the production should be there for Mason after WAS RB BRob went for 100+ rushing last week, and DET RBs Monty + Gibbs combined for 180+ on the ground in Week Three vs AZ.
I expect SF to get up in this game – holding the lead for the majority of the time with this subpar AZ offence on the other side of things. What does that mean – more reps for Mason, leading to more production against a team that ranks 27th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game (145+ rush yards/game)
Pick: Trey McBride Over 4.5 Receptions (-128) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SF DE Yetur Gross-Matos (IR)
- SF TE George Kittle (Questionable)
- SF LB Fred Warner (Questionable)
- ARI CB Garrett Williams (Out)
- ARI OT Kelvin Beachum (Questionable)
Signs are there for a big game from McBride – especially with the news that Fred Warner is very banged up and may be limited in the game. McBride is coming back from a conky after missing the last game – prior to that, he was 2nd on the Cards in targets (22) and 1st in receptions (14). He’s a huge part of this offence – and a great underneath option for Kyler in a matchup where he’s projected to have limited time to throw (Bosa – incoming).
This is a pretty minimal line when you consider that the Cardinals should have to pass quite a bit after falling behind early with their run game likely stymied (AZ OFF and SF DEF are both middle of the pack when it comes to the run game) – which only means more work for McBride. Even with Warner playing – it’s clear he’s dealing with some kind of injury, and that should be enough for one of the best pass-catching TE’s in the NFL to get over this line. Book it.
Game Three: New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: DK Metcalf Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SEA DT Byron Murphy (Out)
- NYG CB Adoree Jackson (Questionable)
- NYG WR Malik Nabers (Out)
- NYG RB Devin Singletary (Doubtful)
- NYG CB Dru Philips (Questionable)
I don’t know where you want me to start with this NYG defence – how bad they are against the pass to outside WRs (outside CBs have combined for 400+ yards allowed through 4 games) – or how bad they play the run (20th PFF rush defence grade). While I don’t expect much success from the NYG offence without Dev and Malik – I believe the mismatch is big enough between DK and the NYG DBs to make this a pick.
Things should come hot and heavy early for DK in this one, following WR1 performances from Ceedee and Amari in Weeks 3 & 4 respectively vs NYG where both went for 80+ rec yds and 1 TD. You want to see a secondary get burnt – watch DK against the Giants this weekend.
Nuff said my friends.
Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SEA DT Byron Murphy (Out)
- NYG CB Adoree Jackson (Questionable)
- NYG WR Malik Nabers (Out)
- NYG RB Devin Singletary (Doubtful)
- NYG CB Dru Philips (Questionable)
What did I say above? With DK and Genooooooo putting in the work early, K9 will have plenty of time to eat on the ground on outside zone runs away from NYG DT Dexter Lawrence in the middle. K9’s resume speaks for itself – you give this guy the rock when he’s healthy, and any rush can be a touchdown run.
Honestly – what other way would you go than this.
Game Four: Green Bay Packers vs LA Rams
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (Questionable)
- GB LB Edgerrin Cooper (Questionable)
- GB WR Romeo Doubs (Out)
- GB OG Elgton Jenkins (Questionable)
- GB OG Jordan Morgan (Questionable)
- GB WR Christian Watson (Doubtful)
- LAR WR Cooper Kupp (Out)
- LAR WR Puka Nacua (Out)
Recipe is pretty simple in this one – GB will want to pass the ball (1st in pass yards for the 2 weeks J Love has played) and LAR will want to run the ball with their stud RB (without their top two pass-catchers). Where does one team break in this matchup?
Many expect it to be with the LAR D, who has looked quite boom-or-bust to this point – granted. I don’t know about you guys – but things don’t look as great for GB when you consider Rams CB Darious Williams is back in the lineup after missing each game to this point in the season. The guy is a gamer – and though he may be old, I expect GB to have difficulty moving the ball through the air against this Rams D.
Where I don’t see them having trouble – running the ball, with the Rams getting absolutely torched on the ground last week to the tune of 150+ team rushing yards (against the lowly Bears of all people). Rams LBs Rozeboom and Reeder – not it, Chief. Jacobs should get the volume and yardage to push this one over the edge.
Pick: Matt Stafford Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-112) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (Questionable)
- GB LB Edgerrin Cooper (Questionable)
- GB WR Romeo Doubs (Out)
- GB OG Elgton Jenkins (Questionable)
- GB OG Jordan Morgan (Questionable)
- GB WR Christian Watson (Doubtful)
- LAR WR Cooper Kupp (Out)
- LAR WR Puka Nacua (Out)
Stafford goes off in this game after a stinker in CHI – book it. Not only is this GB defence worse in pass coverage than CHI’s D (CHI 8th in PFF pass coverage grading, GB 16th) – it’s also worse in the pass-rush (CHI 9th in PFF pass-rush grading, GB at 24th). What more does the Stafshow need to cook in this one?
GB CB All-Pro Jaire Alexander being banged is just a sign – Stafford’s line is depressed due to LAR WR injuries, yet he can let it fly with any Joe Schmo catching the ball in a matchup like this. Solid AF.
Game Five: SNF: Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Najee Harris Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- PIT LB Alex Highsmith (Out
- PIT RB Cordarelle Patterson (Out)
- PIT RB Jaylen Warren (Out)
- DAL WR Brandin Cooks (IR)
- DAL CB Trevon Diggs (Questionable)
- DAL Micah Parsons (Out)
Shittttt – PIT’s OLine is about to dummy this DAL rush defence – that got absolutely torched Weeks 1-3 with physical football in the trenches. Guess what DAL has this week? The PIT offence, w/o RBs Patterson and Warren to take volume away from the Naj.
PIT has its starting LG back in Isacc Seumalo (who has missed every game to this point in the season) – and all signs point to a huge Harris game. Book it, yet again.
Pick: Jalen Tolbert Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- PIT LB Alex Highsmith (Out
- PIT RB Cordarelle Patterson (Out)
- PIT RB Jaylen Warren (Out)
- DAL WR Brandin Cooks (IR)
- DAL CB Trevon Diggs (Questionable)
- DAL Micah Parsons (Out)
Explosive DAL pass offence up against a tough run D in PIT with an exploitable matchup through the air after PIT gives up 300+ pass yards to Flacco and the IND Colts pass offence?
Brandin Cooks Out of the lineup with the projected mismatch better for outside WR’s than inside DAL pass-catchers vs Queen?
Free money.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Five Sunday Best Bets – Afternoon + SNF Slate
Game One: Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Pick: Bo Nix Over 186.5 Passing Yards (-114) 1.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Game Two: Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Jordan Mason Over 81.5 Rush Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Trey McBride Over 4.5 Receptions (-128) 1.0u via NorthStar
Game Three: New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: DK Metcalf Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Game Four: Green Bay Packers vs LA Rams
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Matt Stafford Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-112) 1.0u via NorthStar
Game Five: SNF: Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Najee Harris Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Jalen Tolbert Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano