We are getting closer and closer to the Madness beginning people. Everyone has filled out their brackets, and I know that we all have the utmost excitement to finally be the one with a perfect bracket. Well….. it ain’t happening. There’s a reason that nobody has put together a perfect bracket: there are way too many wildcard underdogs, and there are always a few teams who make it to the Sweet 16 or further as a double-digit seed (and yes …. I realise the picture for this post is the album cover for Future’s song “March Madness”, but it fits the article, so I’m running with it.)
The much easier method (compared to filling out a bracket) is to just bet futures for those teams you are most confident in (if the line makes sense). Whether that be to make it to the Sweet 16, the Elite 8, or the Final 4. Now, of course everyone wants to bet that UConn will make the Sweet 16. But at -1000, there’s no value.
This is why I’ve looked into the three best futures bets at -105 odds or plus money, and I’ve got to tell you, I have good feelings about these ones. So without further ado, here are the picks.
Future 1: Arizona to Make the Elite 8 (2.0 units) at -105
There may be some people that are off of Arizona due to their recent up-and-down nature. But c’mon, this team could be outright sick during the season, ranking 3rd in the country at 87.9 ppg scored, with top 12 KenPom efficiency ratings both offensively and defensively. On top of this, Arizona has shown in their last five games they can still be a dominant team, beating the following teams:
- Oregon (55 KenPom, 59 in NET ranks) 103-83
- UCLA (97 KenPom, 107 NET ranks) 88-65
- USC (85 KenPom, 88 NET ranks) 70-49
Those are three 20+ point blowouts against top 100 teams based on the metrics. Yup, not too shabby.
The problem is that they’ve also lost to USC (78-65) and Oregon (67-59) in their last five games. This could be an indication of how inconsistent this team is.
But, if you look at the way the bracket fell for Arizona, you should be confident in this pick.
First, they play Long Beach State as a 21 point favourite in the Round of 64. Long Beach is 163 in the KenPom ranks, ranking 145th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 210th in defensive. That’s a bad recipe for a good offensive Arizona team.
Then, it’s on to the Round of 32. They either have Dayton or Nevada. Both of these teams are very “meh” to me. Decent teams no doubt. But Dayton has really looked like they’ve lost it at the end of the season. I mean, losing to Duquesne 65-57 is a terrible look. And in their last 6 games, they’ve also lost to Loyola Chicago and George Mason. I am actually picking Nevada to make it past Dayton, but they won’t fare much better. This team relies on being able to outscore their opponents, winning 5 of their last 6 and averaging around 77 points in each game. The problem is, Nevada’s best offensive opponents over this time were UNLV (75th in KenPom adjusted efficiency rating), Boise State (52nd), and Colorado State (42nd), and Colorado State was the one team to beat them and put up 85. Arizona should take care of whichever team makes it through with their top 10 offence.
On to the Sweet 16, and this is where things get a little murky. But fear not, we will only prepare for the worst-case-scenario: Baylor makes it to the Sweet 16 as well. This will be a close game, but if you are holding what effectively becomes a +115 ticket on the Arizona moneyline for this game, you gotta be happy. Arizona will be favoured, and they have one clear separator that can get this team the dub.
His name is Caleb Love.
To have one of the best guards in College Basketball, a guy who can create his own shot on every possession and put up 30 points on his own, is essential for a run in March.
You also have to do a slight “vibes” check to see where this team is sitting emotionally. Don’t forget, this was a Arizona team that got bounced in the Round of 64 last year to 15 seed Princeton. It’s my belief that this will only serve to inspire this team with returning players, and I have Arizona comfortably in my Elite 8 (but no further).
Future 2: Wisconsin to Make the Sweet 16 (1.0u) at +175
OOOOOO this is a fun one. And to be honest with you, it may be a little risky. But at +175 …. I think this line is all out of whack. Wisconsin looked GOOOOOD in the Big Ten Tournament. I know, I know, nobody cares about what happens in the Conference Tournaments. But the Conference Tournament can be an indication of performance in March Madness, and Wisconsin showed that they finally have their game back after a very lacklustre middle of the season.
“They are who we thought they were.”
That win against Purdue (and the refs) was straight impressive, and while they lost to Illinois in a close game in the final, that Illinois team is just nasty with Shannon Jr. (I have them in the Elite 8 in my bracket).
Wisconsin only has to win two games to hit this bet. TWO GAMES. But the first up is a tough James Madison team. JMU was 31-3 on the season, a very impressive record in a very weak conference. Without two losses to Abilene Christian (their kryptonite apparently), they only lost one game on the year. Pretty rank. But let’s look at their resume. The one matchup JMU had that might even be slightly comparable to Wisconsin is Michigan State in the first game of the year, where JMU pulled out a very close win 79-76. Two points to this: 1) It was the beginning of the season, so hard to put a ton of stock into this, and 2) Wisconsin would beat Michigan State in my mind. So while Wisconsin vs JMU is a close spread for a 12 seed vs 5 seed matchup, and may look juicy as an upset, I can’t get over the view that the more battle-tested Wisconsin with a stud scorer like A.J. Storr will get past JMU comfortably.
But that’s when this bet gets tough, as Wisconsin will likely be meeting up with Duke in the Round of 32. Full disclosure, Duke is on my fraud-watch list (as they often are). They have a good offence, but once teams can keep up with them on that end, things get dicey. Sure, Duke has crushed teams like Virginia, Louisville, Miami, and Florida State in their last ten games. The top offensive efficiency ranks among these teams: 92nd. Duke has also lost to NC State, UNC, and Wake Forest in their last ten games. The offensive efficiency ranks among these teams: 47th, 24th, and 26th. Wisconsin’s offensive efficiency rank is 13th. This should tell you all you need to know about how this game will go. Duke may score at a good rate against Wisconsin, but Wisconsin will score more and win this game.
Boom, +175 in your pocket.
Future 3: Oregon to Make the Sweet 16 (0.5u) at +450
The disrespect man….
This may seem like a sucker’s bet to some, and it is a long-shot, no doubt about it. But a +450 bet for the Pac-12 Champ to win two games after going undefeated through a field that included Colorado, Arizona, UCLA, and Utah (three teams in the top 50 of KenPom and one team in the top 100) …. this is cash. So let’s look at the path.
Oregon against South Carolina in the Round of 64. Those losses South Carolina had against Auburn just scare me. Getting blown out by 30+ two times in the last ten games to a Tournament #4 seed just sucks. I actually love Auburn, but c’mon. Oregon also has better guard-play compared to SC, where their two starters can put up close to 50 at times and SC’s guards have trouble keeping up. The pace of SC can also be detrimental if they fall behind at any point, as they run one of the slowest offences in the Country. This all adds up to a 1st round upset for me, and the sportsbooks are not too far off from my thinking (almost a pick em’ line).
So if Oregon gets past SC, you have a +450 Oregon moneyline ticket against a Creighton team that made it far in last year’s Tournament, but lacks a true number one shot-creating option. Kalkbrenner, Scheirmann, and Alexander all average over 17 ppg for Creighton. They are a very good team, no doubt about it. But Oregon most definitely has a shot. One of the real weaknesses of Oregon is perimeter defence. Two things will work to Oregon’s advantage here: 1) Creighton notoriously shoots worse away from their homecourt; and 2) Creighton’s last two games included a loss to Providence where they were 38% from the field and a very narrow win against Villanova where they shot 45% from the field. If Creighton continues this trend, and their shots aren’t falling, Oregon has the offence to put Creighton behind and make this a real game, one I see Oregon slightly winning.
Well there it is people. Hopefully, even if your brackets get busted, these futures can keep you entertained until the Elite 8.
I will be posting an article soon for picks in most, if not every, game on day one of the Tournament. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Future 1: Arizona to Make the Elite 8 (2.0u) at -105
Future 2: Wisconsin to Make the Sweet 16 (1.0u) at +175
Future 3: Oregon to Make the Sweet 16 (0.5u) at +450