Another week of NFL Football where we can plant our asses on the couch and forget about real life for 12 hours – another chance to have some fun betting on NFL player props. That’s right – Week Four of the NFL season provides an opportunity for us to enjoy each game just that much more with some high-end wagers – as we breakdown every NFL game from the advanced analytics, projected game script, and matchup mismatches to get the most out of our money this weekend. We already got on the board with TNF, where we went heavy on Ceedee Lamb, and were rewarded in kind:
Now – we have player props for every NFL morning game locked in – and all of the analysis is on paper. There’s a rhyme and reason to each and every one of these picks – and we had a lot of fun identifying the likely path to victory for each team on the board. So, without further ado, let’s get to our best bets.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Four Sunday Morning Slate: Best Bets
Game One: Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CIN RT Trent Brown (IR)
- CIN DT BJ Hill (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CIN DT Sheldon Rankins (Out)
- CAR OG Damien Lewis (Out)
- CAR DT Shy Tuttle (Out)
- CAR WR Adam Thielen (IR)
Ja’Marr Chase was due last week – this week, it’s Tee Higgins time. Tee was coming off a nagging hamstring injury going into Week Three – and CIN sure seemed to have faith in him being fully healthy. Higgins was the clear #2 WR in this offence based on snaps, as he was just two snaps shy of the team lead held by Chase. Further, almost all of his snaps were out wide (only 12% of routes run from the slot).
I didn’t expect a ton of targets for Higgins last week, as the matchup for Chase against that porous Commanders’ secondary was too lopsided for a big game from Tee as well. Now – Cincinnati goes up against the Carolina Panthers. Unlike the Commanders, the Panthers have a bonafide CB1 in Jaycee Horn (5 total receptions and 64 total receiving yards allowed through 3 games – not too shabby). Horn had a 46% shadow-rate last year (how often the CB follows a WR all over the field) – so it’s clear that he can take the one-on-one matchup with the opposing top WR when the situation dictates such. That should be the case here, so Tee is left with the two other CAR CB’s to contend with. One of these CB’s, Troy Hill, plays primarily in the slot. He’s allowed a mere 4 total receptions for 16 total receiving yards to this point in the season. But Tee doesn’t play in the slot that much (as we noted above). So instead, Tee Higgins will be primarily matched up with CAR CB Mike Jackson. And Mike Jackson has allowed ….. wow. He’s allowed 18 receptions for 206 receiving yards to this point. That’s A LOT more than his two counterparts in the CAR CB room – and it’s the 3rd most receiving yards given up by any CB this season. You couldn’t ask for a better matchup for Tee.
As for the game script – I expect this one to remain competitive with decent scoring potential. CAR QB Andy Dalton is the real thing in this Canales offence – and while they might not look as good as last week due to injuries to their WR room, I think they’ll still be able to move the ball on this banged up CIN defence that just got power-bombed by a decent, but not great, WAS offence. For the CIN offence – the run game won’t come easy (it hasn’t all year), as CIN’s PFF run blocking grades are similar to LV’s (who CAR faced last week) – and LV couldn’t get anything going on the ground. Further, RT Trent Brown (tied for the best PFF run blocking grade on this CIN line) going down can’t help the run game, as replacement Rookie OT Amarius Mims came in last game and had a 55.4 PFF pass block grade, but a 38.8 PFF run block grade.
It all lines up for a big Tee game.
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-107) 2.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CIN RT Trent Brown (IR)
- CIN DT BJ Hill (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CIN DT Sheldon Rankins (Out)
- CAR OG Damien Lewis (Out)
- CAR DT Shy Tuttle (Out)
- CAR WR Adam Thielen (IR)
First thing to point out: CAR’s pass blocking is much better than their run blocking according to PFF (4th graded pass blocking unit, 20th graded run blocking unit). On top of that, CIN’s rush defence is much better than their pass rush (28th graded pass rush unit, 11th rush defence unit).
So what’s the sweet-spot when we have two starting Carolina WR’s not playing at full health in this one (Thielen Out, Johnson nicked up)? We go to the pass-catching RB, who put up 5 receptions last week for 55 yards and has run 44 routes in 3 games. While Chuba hadn’t had much receiving work prior to last week – nobody on CAR did, as they didn’t have a competent QB at the helm prior to that point.
Andy Dalton likes the check-downs in this Dave Canales offence that absolutely fed TB RB Rachaad White with receptions last year – so why not keep riding the trend when he’s the only healthy pass-catching option in town?
Game Two: Denver Broncos vs New York Jets
Pick: Breece Hall Over 97.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Betway
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- NYJ OT Morgan Moses (Out)
- NYJ LB CJ Mosley (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
This Denver Broncos defence is actually legit. That performance against a very solid TB offence last week really opened up my eyes – as I just chalked their performances against PIT and SEA up to facing incompetent offences. As we’ve seen as the season goes further along – SEA has a potent passing attack, and PIT’s offence remains solid (12th overall PFF graded offence) despite their lack of passing game success. With Denver holding both these teams to limited points – it has to be said that this unit may be much better than I initially thought.
Where they aren’t better than I thought? Against the running backs. Let’s start with their PFF rush defence grade: 27th in the NFL at 48.8. Now – let’s look at the run-game units they’ve had to face to this point:
- SEA: 9th PFF run blocking grade, 109 total yards for SEA RB Kenneth Walker
- PIT: 11th run blocking grade, 135 total yards for PIT RBs
- TB: 14th run blocking grade, 129 total yards for TB RBs
Are you starting to get the picture? A Top 15 run blocking OLine – the RB’s eat. Well, what’s up with the Jets PFF run blocking grade? 12th in the NFL. And is Breece Hall better than every RB Denver has faced to this point? Without a doubt, yes. While NYJ RB Braelon Allen will get some work, I expect this one to be the “Breece Show” from the hop.
You might be scared because Jets’ starting RT Morgan Moses went down last week. However – Moses was by far the worst PFF rated OLineman on the Jets 5-man unit, with a 51.2 overall blocking grade. The replacement OT Rookie Fashanu on limited snaps: 78.1 run block grade and 40.2 pass block grade. If anything – the replacement may be better than Moses in the run game. Let’s lock it in.
Pick: Bo Nix Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 2.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- NYJ OT Morgan Moses (Out)
- NYJ LB CJ Mosley (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
You might not realize this – but to this point in the season, it’s been Jayden Daniels vs Bo Nix for best Rookie QB. Nix has lowkey been making some plays – and his best plays always seem to come on scrambles, where he’s rushed for over 35 yards a game on 18 total rush attempts:
That being said – I don’t expect Bo to have the same kind of passing success that he had in Week Three this week vs the NYJ pass defence. Hand up – I was wrong about the Jets pass-rush last week. Granted, they were going up against a banged up, very “meh” OLine in NE – but they still got after the passer with a 74.5 PFF pass rush grade (by far their best mark of the year). After two weeks of limited blitzing – the NYJ unloaded, blitzing on 40% of the snaps (17% vs TEN in Week 2 and 24% vs SF in Week 1). It seems to me that blitzing will lead to more defensive success for this team – and they have the personnel to do it due to their high-skill in the secondary.
The Jets enter this week ranked 3rd in PFF pass coverage grading – as they’ve held QB’s to 150.7 pass yards per game (4th in the NFL). Due to the lockdown coverage and the increased blitz rate – there’s only one answer for this DEN offence – the run game.
The NYJ are graded as the 2nd worst run defence according to PFF. The thing is – we all saw how this NYJ defence can eat up a slower RB with mediocre run blocking when they faced NE. Now – they face a slower RB in Javonte Williams (some Badie and McLaughlin, but Javonte is still the carry and snap leader) and bad run blocking, where DEN ranks dead-last according to PFF. Where the DEN OLine excels: pass-blocking, with the 14th graded PFF pass block unit in the NFL. So – when the Broncos RB’s get stuffed, and Nix has decent time in the pocket but has all WR’s covered up by lockdown corners, what do you think he’s going to do? Run the ball damnit, and CJ Mosley being banged up doesn’t hurt this one either.
Game Three: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
Pick: Travis Etienne Over 74.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- JAX TE Evan Engram (Out)
- JAX LB Devin Lloyd (Questionable, likely to play)
- JAX LB Foyesad Oluokun (IR)
- JAX S Darnell Savage (Out)
- HOU WR Nico Collins (LP mid-week, playing)
- HOU WR Tank Dell (Out)
- HOU RB Joe Mixon (Questionable, true question mark to play)
- HOU S Jimmie Ward (Out)
Etienne came in clutch with some garbage time rush yards last week to cash for us – this week, I don’t even think he’ll need garbage time to hit the line, with this game being much closer than many think due to the slew of injuries that hit Houston. Even if Houston can replicate its offensive success with 3rd stringers – Etienne has shown he’s more than capable in the pass game (3 receptions per game) – so we’re covered either way gamescript-wise.
Let’s get into the mismatches. Jacksonville is graded as the 27th ranked pass blocking unit in the NFL. That ain’t good. Houston is only graded as the 19th ranked pass rush, but they’ve gone against Top 5 pass blocking OLine’s in IND and MIN. The only time they faced a bad pass blocking unit in CHI. Well, we all know what happened there:
Based on that analysis – we’re going to see a ton of pressure getting to Lawrence, much like we did in Buffalo last week with their 19 QB pressures against the Jags. With that being said – how does Lawrence alleviate some of the pressure? Well, one of the only ways is through the dump-off/screen game, where Etienne is known to pop off on occasion (he had a 50+ yard reception last year). The other way – by running the ball, where the Jags may actually be able to find some success against this Houston front.
It’s hard to say that Etienne will find the kind of success that IND RB Jonathan Taylor and MIN RB Aaron Jones had against this Houston defence – but it helps Ettiene’s case for at least 60-70 yards on the ground (as he had last week against a similarly ranked rush defence in Buffalo). That, combined with his receiving work, should easily get him over this line.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- JAX TE Evan Engram (Out)
- JAX LB Devin Lloyd (Questionable, likely to play)
- JAX LB Foyesad Oluokun (IR)
- JAX S Darnell Savage (Out)
- HOU WR Nico Collins (LP mid-week, playing)
- HOU WR Tank Dell (Out)
- HOU RB Joe Mixon (Questionable, true question mark to play)
- HOU S Jimmie Ward (Out)
Yikes – it’s real bad news for the Jags defence that their star LB duo is banged up. Especially considering Oluokun is the top PFF rated pass coverage player on the Jags, with Devin Lloyd racking up a 70.2 overall defensive grade on PFF (above average). That being said – this pick is all about the injuries to Houston, where star WR1 Nico Collins picked up a hamstring injury on Thursday and slot speedster Tank Dell is Out. Diggs is the only show in town – and even when he hasn’t been, he’s been heavily targeted and shown good production through three weeks.
We also saw how this Houston offence operates on the ground without Joe Mixon in the lineup (I’m assuming he’s, at the very least, severely limited if he plays this week) – a grand total of 38 rush yards as a team in Week 3 vs the Vikings. Granted, the Vikings D is a good rush defence (top of the list in PFF grading), but you can’t tell me that this inspired confidence in Demeco to lean on the run this week, right? Especially considering the Jags are ranked worse in pass coverage PFF grading than rush defence.
23 targets to this point in the season – 20 catches. 110 receiving yards last week against a very solid MIN defence. Diggs is catching every ball thrown at him right now, and it’s more than possible we see him targeted early and often from the slot (62.7% slot rate in 2024). Remember – that’s where we saw BUF WR Khalil Shakir light up JAX early in Week 3. Let’s hit it.
Game Four: Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 99.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 2.0u via Betway
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LAR OG Steve Avila (IR)
- LAR OG Jonah Williams (IR)
- LAR WR Puka Nacua (IR)
- LAR WR Cooper Kupp (Out)
- LAR S John Johnson (IR)
- CHI OG Ryan Bates (IR)
- CHI DT Andrew Billings (Questionable, likely to play)
- CHI S Kevin Byard (Questionable, likely to play)
For as bad as the LAR OLine injuries look on paper – this team just took it to a SF defence that may be devoid of good gameplanning, but has the talent to match any defence in the League. And as per usual, when the LAR WR core is dealing with injuries, Kyren is the only show in town. With Puka and Kupp Out last week, Kyren got fed – 24 rush attempts for 89 rushing yards to go along with 2 receptions for 27 receiving yards. You can bet your bottom dollar on this guy getting the majority of the work in the LA backfield – and that’s a valuable spot in a very good schematic offence under McVay – especially when the passing game has its struggles. Call me crazy – but I think Stafford might have some problems with the 6th PFF coverage graded CHI defence.
There’s no doubt about it – this CHI secondary is potent. They relatively shut down a good QB in Stroud Week 2, and we all saw how they handled a subpar QB in Anthony Richardson Week 3 (held to 167 passing yards). While the Rams may have had some success in the passing game against SF, it will be tough to test CHI in this area when the run game appears much more susceptible.
The only time the Bears defence really got lit up defensively? The first half of Week 1, where the Titans ran all over them to the tune of 109 rush yards. That’s because: (i) they committed to the run, and (ii) they were able to get some push on this CHI defensive front. Well, the Titans aren’t even one of the better run blocking teams in the League to this point (19th in PFF run block grade), so are we really expecting a stud RB in Kyren behind the 16th ranked PFF run blocking OLine in the Rams unit to do poorly against this CHI defence? Well, unless QB Caleb Williams pulls a rabbit out of his hat and blows the Rams out – we’re smashing this line with pure volume. I don’t expect Caleb to have success in this one (as you’ll see below), so Kyren should have plenty of rushing opportunities. However – even if Caleb defies logic and succeeds mightily against this Rams defence – Kyren is clearly a part of the game plan with his pass-catching acumen (58 receiving yards through 3 games).
Why does Caleb fail against this Rams defence? He finds less success in production when there’s a proficient pass-rush. In fact – let’s do a comp. CHI got absolutely torn up with QB pressure in the Week 2 game against HOU. HOU is the 19th ranked PFF pass-rush defence, yet they’re 6th in defensive pressure percentage (the percentage of snaps with a defensive pressure). Obviously – they have a tough time converting on sacks (based on the disparity), yet they still dominated Caleb to the tune of 174 pass yards and 2 interceptions. Now – the Rams are the 22nd ranked PFF pass rush defence, and they’re 11th in defensive pressure percentage. The similarities are present – even with both HOU and LAR coverage units holding bottom 15 ranks in PFF pass coverage grades.
It’s all there – good game script, good gameplan, and good matchup for Kyren. Let’s ride.
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LAR OG Steve Avila (IR)
- LAR OG Jonah Williams (IR)
- LAR WR Puka Nacua (IR)
- LAR WR Cooper Kupp (Out)
- LAR S John Johnson (IR)
- CHI OG Ryan Bates (IR)
- CHI DT Andrew Billings (Questionable, likely to play)
- CHI S Kevin Byard (Questionable, likely to play)
It seems to be a common thread to this point in the season that if you have any semblance of athleticism at the QB position – you will have success running the ball against the Rams defence. Through three weeks, the LAR have allowed: 41 rush yards to Brock Purdy, 59 rush yards to Kyler Murray, and 7 rush yards to Jared Goff (maybe the most damning of all those performances). It’s clear that QB’s with even the bare minimum of agility and speed can have success rushing the ball – and Caleb is anything but unathletic (posting 966 career rush yards in 3 years of College).
Then – we move to the Bears side of things. They’ve faced two bottom 10 pass-rush units to this point in time, and in those two games, Caleb had 23 rush yards total. In the one game where the Bears faced a defence that generated pressure-after-pressure (HOU in Week Two), Caleb rushed for 44 yards. If Caleb is pressured (as this Rams defence should do) – he takes off scrambling with greater success. It lines up – let’s see that dual-threat ability Caleb.
Game Five: Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-116) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- MIN LB Ivan Pace (Out)
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (Questionable, true question to play)
- GB QB Jordan Love (Questionable, likely to play)
- GB OG Jordan Morgan (Out)
Two things that are true: (i) the Vikings OLine has operated as a Top 10 unit to this point (mostly through their run blocking prowess) and (ii) Aaron Jones is still really fucking good. Those two things bode well for AJ hitting this Over – to go along with the blessings of a healthy roster on MIN through three weeks.
While Vikes QB Sam Darnold has been cooking to this point in the season, MIN still ranks as a Bottom 10 pass blocking unit in PFF grading. Granted – they’ve had to go up against 3 good pass-rushing units to this point in the season (NYG, SF, and HOU). But – the OLine has excelled in creating run lanes for these Vikings RB’s, ranking 2nd in PFF run block grading. And the leader of this Vikings rushing attack, Aaron Jones, should have plenty of opportunities to exploit this 24th PFF graded rush defence in GB (plus, it’s a revenge game – let him cook).
In the passing game, Aaron Jones is the main target, with 80% of the receptions in the Vikings RB room through 3 games, and 80% of the receiving yards. AJ gets opportunities – and he’s still very explosive if you watch him play. Give him a shot in the revenge game – you won’t regret it considering he has 325 scrimmage yards through 3 games.
Pick: Jayden Reed Over 59.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- MIN LB Ivan Pace (Out)
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (Questionable, true question to play)
- GB QB Jordan Love (Questionable, likely to play)
- GB OG Jordan Morgan (Out)
I think Jordan Love plays – so we’re taking the shot with Reed. This guy was the de facto #1 target in the offence with Love at the helm in Week One – and we saw how explosive he could be then:
(insert x post)
While Reed only ended up with 9 yards receiving in Week 2 – that was the game plan to beat IND. They’re terrible against the run, and GB held a decided OLine and RB advantage in that one. Things got better with backup Malik Willis in Week 3, where Reed ended up with 50 receiving yards on 6 targets. With more time to implement a game plan with Willis – and more chemistry – things improved. So even if Love is Out, I still feel comfortable here.
To add to Reed’s production profile – he’s running the ball at a high rate for a WR. He’s no Deebo – but he’s been extremely effective in the run game with totals of 33, 37, and 19 yards rushing through three weeks. Hence – why we’re taking his receiving AND rushing yards.
The matchup works out as well. MIN has absolutely shut down opposing rush attacks (1st in PFF rush defence), and GB hasn’t had good run blocking despite their success in Week Two (22nd in PFF run blocking). Meanwhile, the only place MIN has been exposed is through the pass game (26th in PFF pass rush, but 7th in PFF pass coverage). While that coverage grade is quite good – the Vikings get exposed most in the slot, where slot CB Byron Murphy has allowed 16 receptions for 209 receiving yards to this point (3rd most receiving yards given up among CBs). The WR who plays the most slot snaps for GB? Reed with 56 slot snaps (next up is Wicks with 24). Lock it.
Game Six: New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Kirk Cousins Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-115) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- ATL OT Kaleb McGary (Out)
- ATL C Drew Dalman (IR)
- NO RG Cesar Ruiz (Out)
- NO C Erik McCoy (IR)
- NO LB Demario Davis (Out)
- NO WR Chris Olave (Questionable, true question to play)
- NO RB Alvin Kamara (Questionable, likely to play)
Two points to go along with this one – (i) gamescript should dictate less pass attempts for ATL considering the injuries to the Saints offence, and (ii) ATL’s OLine is severely banged up, limiting Kirk to passes underneath and speeding up his internal clock to the point where incompletions become the norm. For reference – this NO defence is Top 10 in pressure rate through 3 weeks, and they are graded as the 4th best pass coverage defence on PFF. They limited Hurts last week, had Dak seeing ghosts in Week two, and took Bryce Young to the woodshed in Week One. Kirk has looked good on about 25% of the offensive drives for ATL this year – and now he’s without two of his top three PFF graded OLineman.
To the first point mentioned above – it’s my belief that this NO offence will also have trouble moving the ball in this one. Kamara is banged up after handling a huge workload through the first three games of the season, and their best PFF graded OLineman is Out with McCoy on the IR. If ATL can succeed anywhere on defence – it’s in pass coverage where they’re graded as the 8th best unit in the NFL. The Saints thrive on deep shots following play action – which will be tough to set up with Kamara likely struggling (ATL is the 12th graded rush defence) against a solid secondary. Therefore – less need for Kirk to throw on offence, where ATL can instead rely on their rush attack with Bijan against this 15th PFF graded rush defence in NO.
Pick: Taysom Hill Over 17.5 Rush Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- ATL OT Kaleb McGary (Out)
- ATL C Drew Dalman (IR)
- NO RG Cesar Ruiz (Out)
- NO C Erik McCoy (IR)
- NO LB Demario Davis (Out)
- NO WR Chris Olave (Questionable, true question to play)
- NO RB Alvin Kamara (Questionable, likely to play)
Sneaky sneaky here. While Hill was Out last week, Kamara racked up 26 rush attempts against Philly. NO has been running the tread off Kamara’s tires through three weeks, giving him 61 rush attempts over that period. Alvin Kamara – not built for that workload. He got banged up in the game last week, and he started this week as a DNP in practice before getting in a few limited sessions. He’s playing – but the extent to how much he’s playing should decrease with the injury considered.
Meanwhile – even with the injuries to McCoy and Ruiz – this is a good run blocking OLine in NO. The other three members of this OLine have 69+ PFF run blocking grades (nice), and Taysom Hill took advantage of that through the first two weeks. Even with kamara logging 15+ rush attempts, Hill was still able to put up 53 rush yards on 8 rush attempts in two appearances. Now, Kamara will log less snaps, Hill is fully healthy, and Dennis Allen has a hard-on to use his favourite white weapon in this Kubiak offence. Let Taysom cook.
Game Six: Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 5.5 Receptions (+124) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- PHI WR Devonta Smith (Out)
- PHI WR AJ Brown (Out)
- PHI OT Lane Johnson (Questionable, likely to play)
- TB RB Bucky Irving (Questionable, likely to play)
- TB OT Luke Goedke (Out)
- TB DT Calijah Kancey (Out)
- TB DT Vita Vea (Questionable, likely to play)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Out)
Well – Dallas is the only show in town and PHI should have to score. What more do you need?
I’ll give you a little more just to make things more concrete – starting with the matchup. Tampa hasn’t really been tested by a TE that’s the focal point of the offence to this point – and make no mistake about it, Goedert will be the lead pass option this week. While Goedert had 26 total slot routes through the first two weeks of the season – he had 22 in Week Three, as Devonta Smith went Out with the conky (the usual leader in slot snaps on this team).
Meanwhile – Tampa has their issues at Safety and on the DLine with injuries, making this defence susceptible to a passing attack with this solid Eagles OLine (even without Lane). Two of the three players with the most pass yards allowed on the Bucs D are the two players slated to be matched up with Goedert – slot CB Tykee Smith (117 receiving yards allowed) and LB Lavonte David (105 receiving yards allowed).
Lots of people are taking the Saquon Over yardage line because he’s been so amazing to this point in the season – which is exactly why that won’t hit. It’s too obvious, so let’s go with a deeper cut in Goedert here.
Pick: Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions (+109) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- PHI WR Devonta Smith (Out)
- PHI WR AJ Brown (Out)
- PHI OT Lane Johnson (Questionable, likely to play)
- TB RB Bucky Irving (Questionable, likely to play)
- TB OT Luke Goedke (Out)
- TB DT Calijah Kancey (Out)
- TB DT Vita Vea (Questionable, likely to play)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Out)
Yikes – that TB Bucky Irving injury is rough with him being the only Bucs RB to find success on the ground to this point in the season. Despite that fact – Rachaad White has still garnered over 70% of snaps in every game this season, and his target totals aren’t anything to sneeze at for an RB (12 targets through 3 games). While White isn’t being fed in the passing game as much as he was last year under Canales – he’s still the pass-catching back in TB, and PHI has shown they can be exploited in the underneath passing game.
9 catches for 85 receiving yards. That’s how PHI has been against pass-catching RBs through three games. And it’s not like that figure is inflated by one individual matchup. Each of Saquon, Bijan, and Kamara had 2+ receptions and 20+ receiving yards. With White’s target volume through three games, along with the Irving injury and Godwin+Evans entering the game as Questionable, I believe he gets the rock early-and-often here. While he might not be the most efficient with these touches – he will rack them up. Lock it in.
Game Seven: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: George Pickens Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 2.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- PIT LB Alex Highsmith (Out)
- PIT RB Jaylen Warren (Out)
- PIT QB Russell Wilson (‘Bout to find himself benched)
- IND DT DeForest Buckner (IR)
- IND C Ryan Kelly (Questionable, unlikely to play)
- IND OT Braden Smith (Questionable, true question to play)
- IND DE Kwity Paye (Out)
- IND CB Kenny Moore (Out)
They constantly disrespect Pickens with these receiving lines. Yes – he did only JUST go Over his receiving line in his last game. But yes – this is a much better matchup for him than last week with LAC’s 2nd overall PFF graded pass coverage unit.
I’d have to say that the Colts are the worst defence in the NFL at this point. Even the poor CHI offence had success (yardage-wise) against this banged-up Colts D last week. Now – add to that their best PFF rated corner in Kenny Moore being Out following an injury last week and a lack of pass rush against Justin Fields with DeForest Buckner and Kwity paye Out. It’s money time for Pickens.
The story remains the same for the Steelers – they don’t have to throw the ball a lot because they don’t give up a lot of points. However – they still throw the ball, and if everything is equal among CB matchups (every CB is bad on IND), then why wouldn’t Fields throw the ball to his best pass-catcher? On top of that, stud pass-rusher Alex Highsmith is Out, so it’s possible IND and mobile QB ARich can actually get some explosive plays going in this one. If that’s the case – Pickens will smash this line. Even if it’s not the case – he should still go Over in this one.
Pick: Cordarelle Patterson 31.5 Over Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 2.0u via Betway
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- PIT LB Alex Highsmith (Out)
- PIT RB Jaylen Warren (Out)
- PIT QB Russell Wilson (‘Bout to find himself benched)
- IND DT DeForest Buckner (IR)
- IND C Ryan Kelly (Questionable, unlikely to play)
- IND OT Braden Smith (Questionable, true question to play)
- IND DE Kwity Paye (Out)
- IND CB Kenny Moore (Out)
Everyone and the mother is taking Najee Harris Over Rush Yards in this one, with the matchup against the Colts being clearly one of the best of the week. However – let’s not get confused: the much easier bet in this one is Cordarelle based on usage without Jaylen Warren in the lineup for the majority of last week.
Yes – Najee got a lot of work last game with the Warren injury. However, like always, he was lacking in efficiency (3.9 yards per carry). They need that change-of-pace back in this offence: enter Patterson. OC Arthur Smith’s favourite weapon has followed him from ATL, and with Warren going down, Patterson ate up 7 touches for 50 yards against a pretty stout LAC defence. The guy can still produce – and with how bad this IND defence is and the projected opportunities – he’s hitting this Over.
Game Eight: New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Jordan Mason Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-116) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SF DT Javon Hargrave (IR)
- SF S Talanoa Hufanga (Questionable, unlikely to play)
- SF OT Trent Williams (Questionable, I’d guess he plays)
- SF WR Deebo Samuel (Questionable, true question to play)
- NE OG Michael Jordan (Out)
- NE OT Vederian Lowe (Out)
- NE OG Sidy Sow (Questionable, likely to play)
- NE OT Caeden Wallace (Questionable, likely to play)
Fuck it – I’m adding one afternoon game in here because I only have one pick for this matchup.
A relatively healthy offensive unit in SF? Who would’ve thought. Well, I don’t even think they’ll need most of their playmakers in this one – running the ball down the throats of this porous NE defence should do the trick.
Out of the big three PFF grades: pass-rush grade, run defence grade, and coverage grade – NE is graded lowest in run defence. Last week, against a decent rushing attack in NYJ, they allowed 133 yards rushing. Now – a lot of that was game script-dependent, as NYJ were up for a lot of that game. The fact still remains: the 12th ranked run blocking offence paved the way for Jets’ RBs to go for 4 yards a carry with ease.
Now – NE goes against the 6th ranked run blocking offence (on PFF) paving the way for Jordan Mason, who’s averaged 4.8 yards/carry through three weeks with an average of 20+ rush attempts a game. There shouldn’t be any difficulty for Mason to run on this defence – especially when the SF D should have a chip on their shoulder after allowing a depleted Rams offence so much success in Week Three.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Four Sunday Morning Slate: Best Bets
Game One: Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-107) 2.0u via Betano
Game Two: Denver Broncos vs New York Jets
Pick: Breece Hall Over 97.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Betway
Pick: Bo Nix Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 2.0u via Betano
Game Three: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
Pick: Travis Etienne Over 74.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 2.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 2.0u via NorthStar
Game Four: Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 99.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 2.0u via Betway
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114) 2.0u via NorthStar
Game Five: Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-116) 2.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Jayden Reed Over 59.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Sports Interaction
Game Six: Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 5.5 Receptions (+124) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions (+109) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Game Seven: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: George Pickens Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 2.0u via Betano
Pick: Cordarelle Patterson 31.5 Over Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 2.0u via Betway
Game Eight: New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Jordan Mason Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-116) 2.0u via NorthStar