Wow – how can it already be Week 4 of the NFL Regular Season?! It seems as though the season just started – yet here we are, with multiple teams already seemingly out of playoff contention due to lackluster starts. On the other side of the coin: there were multiple 0-2 teams that pulled out clutch wins in Week 3, giving life to fanbases that might have phoned in the season had they lost (LA Rams, Carolina Panthers – the list goes on). With all that being said – we’ve had a lot of fun betting on games to this point. We had a tough Week 2, followed by a goose-egg on TNF Week 3 – but we made some ground back this weekend with a profitable Sunday & Monday, as the analysis is getting sharper with more data to draw from:
Tonight – it’s an interdivisional matchup between a disappointing Cowboys team and a Giants’ team that’s had some success as of late. While Dak threw for over 350 yards last week – America’s Team never seemed to be close in a game where Baltimore led wire-to-wire. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones was slinging the ball against Cleveland, even with a pass-rush (basically all Myles Garrett) that brought pressure-after-pressure on passing downs. Malik Nabers – he’s that dude. The guy is a stud, and there’s an argument to be made that he’s been the best WR in the League to this point in the season. We’ll look to see if he can continue that success tonight.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Four: TNF Best Bets
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Pick: Devin Singletary Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- NYG CB Adoree Jackson (Out)
- NYG CB Dru Philips (Out)
- NYG WR Darius Slayton (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- DAL CB Caelen Carson (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
I don’t know if you guys are aware of this – but Dallas has (by far) the worst rush defence in the NFL to this point. They’ve shown us week after week that they can’t stop a bloody nose on the ground – as they’re by far the worst PFF graded rush defence, sitting at 29.9 (for reference, the second worst team has a grade of 45.6 – big disparity). We saw what a below-average OLine could do last week against this DAL front, with Baltimore dominating the trenches en route to DHen Tractorcito going for 150+ rush yards. DHen really doesn’t get much going if he can’t get his speed up behind the line of scrimmage – which is why he was held in check up until he faced the Cowboys. Baltimore’s PFF run block grades prior to the Cowboys matchup? 62.4 vs the Chiefs in Week 1, and 56.5 vs the Raiders in Week 2. Their PFF run block grade vs the Cowboys Week 3? 81.3. You see the difference – this Cowboys DLine can make any run unit look good. The fact that the Giants have the 30th ranked PFF run blocking grade to this point in the season – doesn’t scare me on bit (after all, they’ve played elite rush defences in MIN and CLE).
The fear with this pick – Dallas lights up the NYG to the point where running the ball becomes an afterthought. We saw this in Week 1, where the Viking’s scored on the Giants’ defence at will in the first half, leading Devin Singletary to 37 rush yards on 10 rush attempts. In the other two Giants’ performances (where they were in close games against Washington and Cleveland), Singletary put up 95 and 65 rush yards respectively.
The thing is – this Cowboys defence is nowhere near the defensive rush unit that the Vikings are (Vikes are the #1 rush defence in PFF grading despite facing potent rush attack in SF and HOU). The whole reason the Giants didn’t run the ball in that game – they couldn’t get anything going when the score was close in the 1st half. Had they had success on the ground, they likely would’ve stuck with the run game longer, leading to a better overall offensive performance which would have made for a closer game. The Giants will be able to get the run going early against the Cowboys – and while that might not necessarily lead to NYG winning the game, it will lead to more offensive success. I see it happening tonight – lock in.
Pick: Ceedee Lamb Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- NYG CB Adoree Jackson (Out)
- NYG CB Dru Philips (Out)
- NYG WR Darius Slayton (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- DAL CB Caelen Carson (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
Who are the NYG’s best PFF graded players in the secondary when it comes to pass coverage? You guessed it – the two guys that are ruled Out tonight in Adoree Jackson (72.6) and Dru Phillips (83.9). Those two players filled in as the 3rd and/or 4th CB in this NYG defence, playing in the slot a majority of the time. Who has the most snaps from the slot in the DAL offence? Ceedee Lamb of course, with 74 slot snaps (TE Jake Ferguson is 2nd on the team with 41). I don’t know who the Giants are going to promote to fill in this gap in the slot – but I don’t have much confidence in the other Giants’ CBs having any semblance of success against one of the best WR’s in the League:
On the other side of the coin – the squeaky wheel is in need of some grease with Lamb and Dak having their issues last week. We all saw Ceedee get a little testy with Dak:
And for good reason – despite Dak having a stellar stat line at the end of the game, he played less than stellar for the whole affair. There’s no excuse for Lamb only getting 14 targets through the last two games – and I’m sure Prescott has gotten the message. Give the ball to your best player – pretty simple. Along with that, we can’t expect the DAL rush offence to get going in this one, as their leading rusher hasn’t exceeded 40 rush yards to this point in the season (and the NYG rush defence just stunted the CLE rush offence, ending with a 79.6 PFF rush defence grade – one of the best grades on the week). In addition to all that – Dak should have at least some time to throw with the Dallas PFF pass block grade improving each week despite tougher competition.
Pick: Ceedee Lamb Longest Reception Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-103) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- NYG CB Adoree Jackson (Out)
- NYG CB Dru Philips (Out)
- NYG WR Darius Slayton (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- DAL CB Caelen Carson (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
Everything above – also applies here. But there’s a few additional points to be added that makes this pick a slam dunk.
Going back to last year – Ceedee has a 30+ yard reception in 4 straight games. In Ceedee’s last 4 games against the Giants: 421 receiving yards. And that’s not even touching on the data from this year.
The Cowboys are 6/17 on 20+ yard pass attempts on the season. The only QB in the NFL with more 20+ pass yard completions? Trevor Lawrence, who has 8 through the first 3 games. Dak hits the deep ball just as much as any QB in the NFL – and he doesn’t even need to get a 20+ air yard target to turn a Ceedee catch into a big gain with Lamb’s elite YAC ability.
The Giants have allowed 6/9 20+ yard passes through their first 3 games – making them the worst defence in the NFL when it comes to explosive pass-play completion percentage. While the big shots on this defence haven’t come in high volume; when this NYG defence gets tested deep, they’re usually getting beat.
It all adds up – let’s hope we can double these bets up tonight and hit em’ both at the same time.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Four: TNF Best Bets
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Pick: Devin Singletary Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Ceedee Lamb Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Ceedee Lamb Longest Reception Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-103) 2.0u via Pinnacle