Well, well, well – that was some primetime hockey displayed on Saturday night – and lucky for us, it means we get another game of puck before we say goodbye to this sweet sport until next Fall. The Oilers got it done at home, setting rat-traps all over the ice and catching the Panthers reaching. We have some confident leans for tonight after that shit-kicking – but let’s recap the action from Game Four before getting to the picks.
Could any team in NHL history have beat that Oilers squad in Game Four? Legitimate question. I mean, maybe those prime LA Kings squads that went 16-4 in the Playoffs, possibly the prime Crosby Pittsburgh squads when they went back-to-back – but that’s reaching. Edmonton looked unstoppable. Everything was clicking for them – and it sure looked a lot like when the switch flipped in the Dallas series in Game Four. It seemed like the Oilers finally broke through that mental wall – and sure made an entrance doing it.
I get the saying “Oh, it doesn’t matter how much you lose by in the Playoffs, it’s only one game” …. blah, blah, blah. There’s obviously credence to that sentiment, as the series are counted in game wins, not total score (side note: the stupidest shit ever is definitely aggregate scoring in soccer competitions). With that being said ….. the Panthers looked broken in that game. The forecheck wasn’t nearly effective enough, getting broken down on the first pass by Edmonton in most instances. Couple that with the fact that Bob actually had an off-night (I wouldn’t worry too much FLA fans, he’s done this every series once) … and the Rats didn’t stand a chance. This kind of mismatch reminded me of a recent Russian MMA fight I recently saw ….
With all that being said …. let’s not put the cart in front of the horse here – one game does not mean Edmonton will win the series. I mean, the stats don’t lie. Only one team has come back from a 3-0 deficit to start the Stanley Cup final …. and that was in the 40’s when the Leafs did it. Sure, some teams have come close to a comeback (2012, where NJD made it to Game Six), but the odds are severely against Oil Country here. Then again …. none of those teams had 2 of the 5 best players in the World, so Edmonton does have that going for them. Regardless, this game could tell us a lot about the future of this series – and if the Oilers win, we may be on the verge of the most improbable comeback in sports history (besides 28-3 of course, sorry for the stray Falcons fans).
Okay, on to the plays tonight. We actually have a couple strong game picks here, as it’s really looking like a good bounce-back spot for a seasoned team that knows what it takes to get through the Finals after a disappointment last year. We also have a couple of slappers for Player Props to fill the card – so without further ado, let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Game: Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers, 6:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Florida Panthers Moneyline (-150) 1u
Pick: Florida Panthers -1.5 Puckline (+180) 0.5u
For as much as I want to give the Oilers the reach around, lubed-up, double-hander special here – it just doesn’t make sense. I would love for the Oilers to put up another 8-spot on the Rats, setting up a tantalising Game Six (is my bias showing?) – it’s just not in the cards. Let’s get into why.
The first point is quite clear and simple – FLA gets back on home ice, where the momentum will work a little differently. I know, home-ice advantage hasn’t really been evident in these Playoffs – but it has for Edmonton. The reason why is simple: once things get rolling for them, the crowd builds up, the players respond, and all of the sudden you have an avalanche of goals on your hands. They did this continuously throughout the year if you had a chance to watch them – and it’s obvious that their style caters to it. It’s like a cycle of pure ecstasy for Oil Country – and we’ve seen how the City reacts.
The crowd won’t fuel Edmonton as much as they did at Rogers Place (although they will have a presence with the lack of hardcore fans in the Sunshine State). Without that mounting pressure, Florida should have a much easier job managing emotions, as well as the game itself.
Not only that, but you can’t expect Skinner to have the same kind of performance he did on Saturday night. I mean, sure, Edmonton didn’t really need his performance at the end of the night. But we all watch the games, and when a team can get a quick bounce-back goal when it’s 2-1 or 3-1, the whole game changes. I believe the only reason that Edmonton got to 8 goals was because Skinner shut the door so many times on Florida. He posted a 2.38 GSAx (goals-saved-above-expected) in Game 4 after going through Games 1, 2 and 3 of the series with an expected rate of -2.98. Betting on that to happen again with his recent showings in Fort Lauderdale …. well, good luck with that. It’s not like Skinner’s been the reason for their wins. On the other side of things, he has definitely been a reason for some of their losses through the Playoffs. At least they aren’t paying Jack Campbell 5 sheets to rot away in the minors … oh wait they are. Imagine those 5 sheets going to a competent goalie.
The data backs this spot up as well – let’s take a look through the past series FLA was involved in, specifically looking at Bob after he had his jock strung up in the rafters by the opposing team:
- TBL Game Four: Loss, 6 goals allowed, .813 SV%
- TBL Game Five: Win, 1 goal allowed, .969 SV%
- BOS Game One: Loss, 4 goals allowed, .857 SV%
- BOS Game Two: Win, 1 goal allowed, .933 SV%
- NYR Game Three: Loss, 5 goals allowed, .783 SV%
- NYR Game Four: Win, 2 goals allowed, .913 SV%
That is a disgusting trend – and it’s not just an indication of Bob’s mental resilience, but also the teams’. These were the only instances of Florida getting beaten badly in the Playoffs, and each and every time, without fail, they came out the next game with a win and a good defensive performance. Looking past this because I want the Oilers to win would be straight ignant.
I feel like I’m betraying my Home Country of Canada with these picks – but we gotta put the heart aside and jump on the Cats here.
Pick: Bobrovsky Over 25.5 Saves (-110) 0.5u
A part of that bounce back includes Bob playing great – and with the shot-volume the Oilers generate with their back against the wall (35 SOG last game, 27 and 29 SOG in VAN elimination games), I can’t stand idly by. While EDM does generate more shots at home in the Playoffs vs on the road (around 33 vs around 28), their last six away shot totals have been 19, 32, 26, 29, 38, and 29. That looks like promising volume, and Bob hasn’t given up more than 2 goals after a stinker all Playoffs. Bob the Builder, fixes his game here, Bob the Builder, yes he can!
Pick: Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 SOG (-150) 0.5u
The points above regarding Edmonton’s increased road-game shots apply for Drai here – but his consistency itself supports this pick. 3, 3, 2, and 4 SOG in this series so far, it’s obvious Leon knows he needs SOG for EDM to be successful. He’s the trigger on the PP, he takes one-timers at an absurd rate, and the shot-attempts have been indicative of a more shot-first approach after a slight dip in the Conference Finals (8, 5, 5, and 6 shot attempts after a stretch of 2, 4, 4, 5, 3, 4). Stay frosty Drai.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Pick: Florida Panthers Moneyline (-150) 1u
Pick: Florida Panthers -1.5 Puckline (+180) 0.5u
Pick: Bobrovsky Over 25.5 Saves (-110) 0.5u
Pick: Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 SOG (-150) 0.5u