The Stanley Cup Finals roll on tonight in Oil Country – and we’ve been away from the NHL action for too long! It’s time to get back into it, with a series that has been anything but one-sided despite the 2-0 lead Florida holds. Let’s recap the action so far in the series before getting to our picks.
I’ll be honest, Edmonton came out in that first game looking like they did … and I was feeling pretty confident the Cup was coming home after all this time. The pressure they put on the Rats was a shock to the system after the drubbing Florida put on NYR in the Conference Finals. When Florida was in that series with the Blueshirts, it seemed like the ice was always tilted toward Shesterkin, and I could’ve sworn NYR didn’t crack the 25 shot-mark at any point (maybe once). Yet, here comes the explosive Edmonton Oildaddy’s, getting pucks on net from everywhere and testing Bobrovsky, putting him in the deepest waters he’s experienced all Playoffs. Not only that – Edmonton was also limiting shots and chances. It was one of their more complete games of the Playoffs ….. yet it didn’t matter one bit. There are three reasons for that: Bob, Bob, and Bob.
I mean … did somebody check this guy for a pulse in Game One? I’m not looking into his goals-saved-above-expected (because I’m an Oilers backer, and it might make me sick), but I’m sure it was one of the highest marks of the Playoffs. And give it up to those filthy Panthers – they know how to score when given the opportunity. You can outplay a team one hundred times – and you still might only beat them 66% of the time. What a beautiful sport hockey is – unless you’re an Oilers fan.
The second game …. well, that one has me feeling like the Cup most definitely is not coming home. I’m still giving Edmonton a chance coming back home for Game Three, but Game Two was a total domination-station work-job by the Panthers. It honestly felt like Edmonton was drowning all game long. Give it up to the Panthers players – they responded after Bob’s legendary performance. Florida started to employ their patented full-ice pressure, stopping the Edmonton rush in its tracks and keeping everything to the outside. It must have been frustrating as hell for McDavid and Co. playing against such a solid forecheck. Nonetheless, the most frustrating part may be the special teams drying up for Oil Country – as they’re now scoreless on the PP with seven chances through two games. Florida even has a PP goal on the vaunted Edmonton PK that was over 95% coming into the series. Makes all the difference when each game is tight like a tiger.
Okay, on to the action for tonight. We got three good reads on some player props for tonight’s action – each one with some value based on a number of contextual factors. I’ll be up front – I do like Edmonton in a bounce-back spot at home tonight. But it doesn’t matter if I like them – they could outplay the Panthers and lose in tremendous fashion. Instead, we’re going with the data – and the data says play Edmonton shooters. We’ll be calling for more shots than Lil’ Jon (well, maybe not that many shots – fucking absurd that he says one word 77 times and it becomes a hit song). Nevertheless, here we go ladies and gents.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Game: Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers, 6:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 SOG (-135) 0.5u
That’s right – Kings of Leon has our back tonight. I can’t necessarily guarantee an Over here – but if he doesn’t get 3 shots, I don’t think the Oilers have a chance. Not only that – his hit rate Over this line in his last ten games is 5/10, which levels out at 2/4 at home in that span. 50% hit rate …. -135 line ….. not great value on its face. But let’s not get it twisted – the guy is averaging over 3 shots-per-game in the Playoffs to this point, and the shot-attempts (SA) are still coming hot and heavy (4.7 SA per game his last 10), and when Edmonton plays at home this Playoffs, they average 30.3 shots-per-game compared to 27.1 on the road. The trigger-man on the PP, it’s a lock Drai gets at least a few chances for shots in his office beside the net (despite FLA playing him very close on the PP). C’mon now Leon – 3 shots ain’t that hard, let’s get back in this series.
Pick: Connor McDavid Over 3.5 SOG (+100) 0.5u
Doubling up on Edmonton’s top two players – who would’ve thought. All the points for Leon apply to McDavid – but they’re magnified even further due to the desperation this guy is playing with right now. He is literally doing everything he can to will Edmonton to the Cup – sometimes to the detriment of the team when he’s doing too much. Regardless, Edmonton is playing well when McDavid is ripping the puck. He’s gone Over this line in 4 of his last 6 games, and his shot-attempts during that time: 10, 8, 8, 6, 8, and 5. There’s no doubt his attempts on net have increased as the Playoffs have gone on (he had 1 and 2 SA’s in two games of the LAK series). All in all, McDavid needs to create offence for this team in order for them to have a chance – and Florida seems to be fine locking everyone else up while he’s ripping down the ice. Works out well for us.
Pick: Sergei Bobrovsky Over 25.5 Saves (-105) 0.5u
Again – the data points from the Draisaitl analysis apply here. With EDM averaging over 30 shots-per-game in the Playoffs, and with proof (from Game One) that the Oilers can tilt the ice and put pressure on Bob – this one’s a no-brainer. Sergei is going to make the saves, we aren’t worried about that – we just need volume. I have a feeling we can get that volume tonight – or else things will get ugly in Oil Country real fast. The only way this (as well as the other props) lose is if Edmonton can pull out a huge win/close game with minimal shot/chances. And they have done this against both Vancouver and the Stars (both in Game Sevens). But with the way Florida plays up front – I don’t think that’s gonna rick-roll.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game: Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers, 6:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 SOG (-135) 0.5u
Pick: Connor McDavid Over 3.5 SOG (+100) 0.5u
Pick: Sergei Bobrovsky Over 25.5 Saves (-105) 0.5u