Well, well, well Dimpleheads. Last week was what we’d been waiting for! Finally cashing an Outright Winner feels great. Don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t some hero-play that got it done. Scottie Scheffler had the shortest odds on the week at the Paris Olympics Golf last week (+550 for the 3 places E/W Outright) – but getting that profit with a $100 bet still feels oh so sweet. Here’s a recap on the action last week, which also included some great Placement bet wins with Hideki Matsuyama and Tom Kim cashing their Top 8 place Each-Ways (for a total of $420 profit on the Tournament, our best card of the year so far):
This week – we’re back to the mid tier of the PGA, with the last Tournament before the Fedex Cup Playoffs. The Wydnham may be a weaker field – but it’s a good weak field, with a ton of opportunities for the guys who can hit fairways, spike wedges, and get hot on the greens. A couple placement bets – a couple outrights – we’re spreading the love this week with some golf profiles that fit this seemingly easy course. Let’s get to the course breakdown so we know what to target this week.
The Course: Sedgefield Country Club (North Carolina):
This course is an interesting blend of tough conditions and short distances. You have to hit the fairways here, as history has shown it’s crucial to gain fairways on the field if you want to end up in the Top 10. Driving distance is really negligible here, as the top of the leaderboard isn’t perennially littered with guys who gain distance off-the-tee. The thing is – if you hit fairways, the approach shots aren’t long (even for the short hitters). You’re going to have most of the approach shots within the short iron/wedge range, with a majority of shots coming from 125-175 yards out.
Approach strokes-gained is by far the most important stat here – and scrambling (chipping) might not be as important as you think. Sure, you want a decent scrambler here, but with the winning score hovering around 20 under, around-the-green play isn’t going to get you to a win. Putting is an interesting one, as it’s very important, but it’s not necessarily the “great” putters who perform here. Usually, if a guy has a pretty good putting-game coming in, he will perform well here.
With all of that said, we’re looking for: (a) driving accuracy, even at the expense of driving distance, (b) great approach play from 125-175 yards out, and (c) a hot putter with average scrambling. With that said – let’s see the guys who have higher odds than I would expect based on their profiles.
*All stats are from DataGolf.com
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
2024 PGA Wyndham Championship Best Bets:
Pick: Aaron Rai Top 20 (+162) 0.25u and Top 10 (+375) 0.1u
I’ve been on Rai before – and each time, it was with an Outright that always seemed so close, but so far. The guy can’t close a tournament – fair enough, as it may take him some time to develop that clutch skill (look at Xander Schauffele recently). That’s why we love a placement bet from him this week – where he has a Top 20 in 5 of his last 6 events, a Top 10 in 3 of his last 4 events, and a course setup that couldn’t be better for him (tell me again why these bets are plus money?)
Driving accuracy? Rai has some of the best accuracy off-the-tee in the PGA. We’re throwing out the stats at The Open, which really aren’t a reliable show of recent form due to the absurd environmental conditions that week. Before that? He had a better fairway percentage off-the-tee than the field in his last 10 Tournaments. There were some absolutely deadly showings during that time period as well, including the RBC (+24% of fairways compared to the field) and the CJ Cup (+21% of fairways compared to the field).
Approach game? Yup, he’s got it. He’s gained strokes on approach (when compared to the field) in 8 of his last 9 events. His approach game in 2024 from 100-150 yards? 84th percentile on Tour. 150-200 yards? 81st percentile on Tour. The proximity for this guy will be top 20 in the field – and it could be top 5 with how well he’s been playing lately.
The putter and chipping game can’t be stellar as well can they? Well, you throw out that stupid Open Championship, and Rai has gained over 1 stroke putting per-round in his last 3 events. That’s insane. Just think – he putted so well those 3 weeks that every round, he made up a whole stroke against the field (a big difference when it comes to the final score) just on the greens, each and every round. That’s how you do well in tournaments.
His scrambling (ability to convert with his chipping game) has also gained strokes in 5 of his last 8 events – and the other 3 events, he was just below average when it came to around-the-green play.
Overall – the guy can’t cash a win with a T2 at the Rocket Mortgage, T7 at the John Deere, and a T4 at the Genesis (all in the last 2 months). But he can do well in lower-class Tournaments – and that’s what we’re betting on this week.
Pick: Akshay Bhatia Outright Winner Each-Way 10 Places (+2800) 0.2u E/W (0.4u total)
That’s right – I’m going with Akshay again this week after a very disappointing 3M Open showing. Akshay really got in trouble with his driving game and found his way into the water on more than one occasion at the 3M. With this course – you have a lot less trouble to worry about – and I expect a bounce-back based on this past this year.
First of all – Akshay drove the ball BAD at the 3M and still only lost 1% of fairways to the field. Before that? +18%, +6%, +14%, +7%, +12%, +8%, and +12%. The guy drives the ball extremely well when it comes to placement, and his distance is right around Tour average.
The approach game – gets hot and cold. However, if you throw out The Open results, he’s gained strokes on approach in 5 of his last 6 events, including an absurd +1.42 strokes-gained-approach (SGA) per/round at the Rocket Mortgage a month ago (where he finished 2nd). When it comes to 150-200 yard approach shots in 2024, he’s 85th percentile on the Tour, and he’s still 67th percentile when it comes to 100-150 yard shots.
The putting will make all the difference here. The 3M Open was bad when it came to Akshay’s putter, but he was in the Top 10 in putting when it came to the 2 events before The Open. It’s no wonder that he placed in the Top 10 in both those events. If Akshay has a hot putter, he definitely has a chance at this win. The Top 10 is just insurance, and as I said before, Akshay bounces back. Bhatia had a terrible streak going from May to June – and then he ripped off two Top 25’s and two Top 10’s. The Open was bad, the 3M was bad …. I’m expecting him to rip it here.
Pick: Robert MacIntyre Outright Winner Each-Way 10 Places (+4500) 0.15u E/W (0.3u total)
Bobby Mac has such a weird profile. He doesn’t gain that many strokes in any one place – he’s just incredibly consistent. Where he does well is kind of what we’re looking for this week – gains strokes driving the ball, gains strokes on approach, and gains strokes putting.
His accuracy off-the-tee? Decent, not spectacular. He’s gained accuracy on the field in 4 of his last 6 events. With his combination of distance and accuracy? He’s gained almost half a stroke on the field per/round off-the-tee in 5 of his last 6 events. Bobby gets it done with the long stick.
The approach game is okay, but again, nothing spectacular. He lost strokes on approach in 4 of his last 10 events, and he’s gained in 6/10 – but he hasn’t gained significant strokes in any event other than the Genesis (which he won 3 weeks ago, with +1.42 SGA). He’s starting to hit his irons better after struggling to start the year.
Bobby makes his money on the greens. In his last 12 showings where strokes-gained were tracked, Bobby has gained on the field 9 times. There’s the +1.1 SGP per/rd at the Genesis (he won), +0.95 SGP per/rd at the Travelers (Top 20), +2.80 SGP per/rd at the RBC (he won), and +0.97 SGP per/rd at the PGA (Top 10). That all happened in the last 3 months.
The closing point on this guy is that he finally has some lower-class field wins to his name. The RBC was very similar to this Tournament, and the Genesis had even better competition to contend with. Bobby has the flare to pull out the dub, and he has 5 Top 10’s already this year to back up the Each-Way. Let’s go.
Pick: Jhonattan Vegas Outright Winner Each-Way 5 Places (+6000) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total)
I’m ready to roll the dice on Vegas after that win at the 3M Open last week. The guy just has a tendency to get hot at times – and this is another low-class event where he can take advantage of a good overall game.
I’m honestly just betting on Vegas continuing a hot putting streak after the 3M Open (where he had an absurd +1.21 SGP per/rd). Don’t look now, but Vegas is coming off 3 top 30’s before his win last week – and in two of those events, he lost more than a half stroke putting per/rd – so you know the rest of his game is in check.
Driving accuracy – 6 of his last 7 events he’s gained fairway percentage on the field. His approach game, specifically from 100-150 and 150-200 yards, is great in 2024 (over the 80th percentile on Tour when it comes to both distances).
It really is just the putting. Any time Vegas has positive strokes-gained in both approach play and putting he has been Top 30. If those numbers spike – he’s going to get in that Top 5. Ride him for one more week to see if he has any magic left.
Pick: Lucas Glover Top 30 (+240) 0.25u and Top 20 (+425) 0.1u
The ex-champ still gets some love on my board. There’s a reason Glover won here last year – he has the exact right game for the setup.
He legit hits fairways like it’s his job. Every Tournament he’s played this year, he’s gained driving accuracy on the field. I look at a lot of these DataGolf profiles for this research, and I’ve never seen a driving accuracy record like that. Perfect for this course.
On approach, in 2024, Glover is possibly the best player in the world from 100-150 yards out (99th percentile), and he’s not far behind when it comes to 150-200 yard shots (96th percentile). Again – there is no DataGolf profile I’ve seen with this kind of skill distribution on paper.
The putting is where Glover absolutely shits his pants. He’s 5/10 on gaining strokes putting in his last 10 events. The good news? He putts very well on these greens (+1.20 SGP per/rd last year here) and before the 5/10 streak, he was 3/10 gaining strokes putting. So he is improving lately on the greens – even if it’s marginal.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 PGA Wyndham Championship Best Bets:
Pick: Aaron Rai Top 20 (+162) 0.25u and Top 10 (+375) 0.1u
Pick: Akshay Bhatia Outright Winner Each-Way 10 Places (+2800) 0.2u E/W (0.4u total)
Pick: Robert MacIntyre Outright Winner Each-Way 10 Places (+4500) 0.15u E/W (0.3u total)
Pick: Jhonattan Vegas Outright Winner Each-Way 5 Places (+6000) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total)
Pick: Lucas Glover Top 30 (+240) 0.25u and Top 20 (+425) 0.1u