The PGA Tour FedEx Cup Playoffs wrap up this week with the penultimate test of the PGA Season – the Tour Championship at East Lake. This is one of my favourite venues the guys play on the Tour, where every shot has huge stakes, and trouble’s lurking around every corner. Things should only get more exciting with a revamped course this year to give these studs a slightly new challenge on the path to hoisting the final trophy of the year (along with a cool $25 million dollar paycheck – not a big deal).
For those who don’t know, PGA players earn FedEx Cup points throughout the season based on their finishes (the higher the finish, the more points the golfer receives). Two weeks ago, we had the Top 70 in the field; last week, it was the Top 50 in the field; and this week, at the Tour Championship, it’s the Top 30 in the field. Now, to give an advantage to the best golfers of the year (there is a huge difference between 30th place in this field and the Top 5 in terms of quality results through the year), this Tournament involves assigning “starting strokes” to each player’s score. For example, the 1st place golfer in the FedEx Cup rankings, Scottie Scheffler, has the advantage of starting this tournament at -10. 2nd place in the standings, Xander Schauffele, starts the tournament at -8. And so on, and so on, until eventually, you get to the bottom 5 starting at even par (0). Whoever has the lowest score at the end of the tournament, wins the whole thing. Here’s a breakdown of how things start in the field this week from golfmonthly.com:
This last week at the BMW Championship was a disappointment for us after running so hot the previous 3 Tournament (where we had 2 Outright Winners with Hideki at the St. Jude and Scheffler at the Olympics). Shauffele was close at 5th place, and Wyndham had a chance at the win (and almost had a guaranteed Each-Way Top 10) starting 5 strokes back of the leader on Sunday, but he choked. Finau did well (Top 20), but Rai shit the bed. The good news is that it was still massively entertaining, and we have a good bankroll to draw from with our previous success – and I’m feeling great about the plays this week.
Without further ado, let’s break down this historic course to see what we’re looking for from our picks.
The Course: East Lake Golf Club (Georgia)
The heat is going to be turned up this week as the boys head to Atlanta to soak up the sun. Expect ass-sweat stains all over the course – with golfers brave enough to wear light colours looking like fat kids with their clothes on in the pool.
Aside from the hot weather conditions – this course plays hard. The revamped version of this course now plays near 7,500 yards long, which is pretty significant length for a PGA Tour setup. The Par is 71, where they have now converted one of the Par 4’s to a Par 5 (making it a total of 3 Par 5’s on the course).
The fairways are quite narrow, and there’s new zoysia on the fairways that should provide for more rollout (while giving great lies to hit off of). The rough isn’t the longest you’ll see on Tour, but it’s some of the thickest. In fact, based on previous statistics from this setup, PGA pros have under a 50% chance of hitting the green if they’re playing from the rough. So the enhanced length of this course calls for driving distance, but the penal rough calls for driving accuracy. With the first shot being so important on this course to set up guys for success (in terms of both accuracy and length), strokes-gained off-the-tee (SGOTT) will be weighed very heavily to account for overall driving.
With the increased length coming into play, we’re going to see a lot more 175+ yard approach shots than usual. 4 of the Par 4’s play over 450 yards, and all 4 Par 3’s play 200+ yards. Approach play is important, as always, but we won’t back down from a guy who struggles in the 100-150 yard range or the 150-200 yard range necessarily. If the guy is good with the long irons (200+ yard shots), that should be enough to succeed here.
With tiered, firm greens that have a lot of slope, there will be missed greens-in-regulation, even for the best ball-strikers. Scrambling (around-the-green play) is going to be decently important, and I’m going to be looking for the guys who had great short games (chipping and putting) on fast surfaces with a lot of slope (like last week at Castle Rock for the BMW Championship) – along with guys who have chipped/putted well at this course before.
In terms of course history and comp courses – I’m not putting too much stock into these aspects. It will help if a guy has done well here before, but with all of the changes at East Lake going into this year, the unpredictability is at an all-time high. I’ll take into account if someone has played quite well here, but it’s tough to get a read on comparable courses.
So all in all, the things we’re looking for, in terms of most important to least important: (i) a good overall driving game, (ii) good approach play, specifically from 200+ yards out, (iii) good putting on fast surfaces, and (iv) good scrambling (especially recently).
With all of that considered, let’s get to the picks.
*All data from DataGolf.com
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
2024 Tour Championship Best Bets – 72 Hole Stroke Play Winner Market*
*With the Tour Championship and the “starting strokes” assigned to each golfer (i.e. 1st place in FedEx Cup Points, Scottie Scheffler, starts this tournament at -10), the sportsbooks offer this unique market, where the starting strokes are not taken into account, and it is the golfer with the lowest score through all 4 rounds that wins this bet, not the actual Tour Champion. So Scottie Scheffler could win the tournament at -15 (-5 through the 4 rounds after starting at -10), but if Aberg finished the Tournament at -12 (-7 through the 4 rounds after starting at -5), he would win in this betting market.
Pick: Sam Burns Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+1800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Burns to win, and one on him to get in the top 4. If he wins outright, we get the full +1800 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 4, we are looking at a reduction of ¼ to the odds. So $100 E/W ($200 total) on Burns at this line pays $2,450 if he wins (cashing the placement bet and the outright bet), and $550 if he only comes in the top 4. Dead-heat rules also apply – check your gambling site for the rules on that.
Everyone loves Burns in this market – and I can’t blame them one bit. He makes the most sense to play the best golf of the weekend – while likely coming up short on the overall leaderboard due to his starting position at -4. Regardless, the chance is there for a low 72-hole score from a guy that’s been on an absolute HEATER lately.
His last 3 results: T-12th at the 3M Open at the end of July, T-5th at the St. Jude two weeks ago, and T-2nd at the BMW last week. He’s peaking at the right time, and every part of his game is in-form going into this week.
You have to start with Burnsy’s short game before anything else. The guy is absolute nails when it comes to hitting putts. You rarely see a guy gain 1 stroke putting per/round in a tournament – this guy’s gained +1.80 and +1.98 strokes putting per/round in his last 2 tournaments. That’s fuckong absurd. Not only that, but that +1.80 strokes gained putting per/round was on very fast greens at the BMW with a lot of slope – a similar setup to what we have this week. Add in the fact that Burns has always putted well at East Lake (over 1 stroke gained per/round on the greens in all three of his previous appearances) – and we’re cooking with gas.
His around-the-green game isn’t far behind his putting. He now has 10 tournaments straight of gaining strokes around-the-green vs the field – with some standout performances to boot. Sam’s short game should be one of the best in the field this week – that much is clear.
Off-the-tee – Burns is definitely not the most impressive. But he does have solid stats recently, with positive strokes gained off-the-tee vs the field in 9 of his last 12 showings, mixing above-average driving distance with average driving accuracy. One positive thing to note – Burns was great off-the-tee at this tournament in 2023, gaining over +0.5 strokes off-the-tee per/round to go along with +19.9% driving distance vs the field and +2% accuracy. That’ll work for a guy that has Burnsy’s short game.
Lastly – his approach play. Burns got a little loose with his wedges/irons in June – but in his last 4 showings, he’s gaining an average of over +0.5 strokes approach per/round. Since January 1, 2024, he’s over 50th percentile in strokes-gained over 200+ yards out (57th percentile), and he’s 89th percentile in good shot percentage from 200+ yards out. He might not have the best approach game, but he is above average from the most common approach distance, and the approach play has been good as of late.
Overall – Burns has the game to light up this leaderboard. It may take him a bit to find his footing (Burns is #1 in strokes-gained 3rd round, but outside the Top 10 in every other round), but he should get there in this betting market.
Pick: Wyndham Clark Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+2200) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
We rode Clark last week – and he shit his pants in the last round, falling from T-5th to T-13th. Regardless, Wyndham is back to playing some good golf. Based on what he’s shown me recently – the course fit with East Lake is too good to pass up.
Off-the-tee: Clark is a bit of a maniac right now. Last week was his best driving performance of the year, gaining +1.44 strokes off-the-tee per/round with +19.2% distance and +10% accuracy. That’s one of the best marks I’ve seen in a tournament when it comes to off-the-tee play. It’s not like this is a new thing though. Wyndham had +0.88 and +0.62 strokes gained off-the-tee per/round in the 2 tournaments prior to last week, and he had 8 straight tournaments with positive strokes gained off-the-tee from March to the beginning of June. Oh, and last year he was over +0.5 strokes gained off-the-tee per/round at East Lake. Pretty fucking solid driving game.
Clark’s approach play – not the best. But he definitely excels more in this kinda setup (long irons and more 200+ yard approach shots) as compared to last week (where there were alot of 175+ yard approach shots, but because of the elevation and thin air in Colorado, these played as 100-150 yard wedge shots). Prior to losing strokes on approach vs the field last week, he had 5 out of 6 tournaments where he gained strokes on approach vs the field. Wyndham also gained almost +1 strokes on approach per/round at the 2023 Tour Championship, and ranks 63rd percentile in strokes gained on 200+ yard shots (vs 51st percentile on 150-200 yard shots) with an amazing 96th percentile rank in good shot percentage from 200+ yards. The game fits the bill.
If Wyndham’s short game is on – he’s near the top of the leaderboard. Good thing he’s gained strokes on the field in putting and around-the-green play in each of his last 3 Tournaments. He putted quite well on those gnarly fast greens last week, and he gained almost a full stroke putting (+0.97 strokes gained putting per/round) and around-the-green (+0.83 strokes gained around-the-green per/round) at East Lake last year.
I mean, hell, Wyndham had the 3rd lowest 72 hole score at last years’ Tour Championship – why can’t he do it again?
Time for Wyndham to get back to his winning ways – even if it might not result with him at the top of the leaderboard (as he starts at -4).
Pick: Tony Finau Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+2800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Tony Montana is a bit of a conundrum at this point for me – but I’m going to write off his putting last week as a flash in the pan after he had good short-game form coming into the BMW.
Tony now has 3 Top 10’s in his last 7 showings, and 6 Top 20’s. He’s consistent as all hell – but certain areas of his game fall off week-to-week. Well, considering his history at this course and his form leading in – I’m thinking there’s at least a decent chance he puts up the low 72-hole score.
The one thing he did get on track at the BMW – his driving game. He was right up there with Wyndham in strokes gained with +1.39 strokes-gained off-the-tee per/round. He hit the ball really straight with +12% fairways vs the field, and that’s going to be essential with the rough at East Lake. Further, in the 7 straight years Tony has played this event, he’s gained strokes OTT in 6 of them. He likes this driving setup, no doubt.
There is nothing to worry about when it comes to Tony’s approach play. 9 straight tournaments with strokes-gained on approach vs the field, to go along with 7 straight showings at the Tour Championship with strokes-gained on approach vs the field. This includes an absurd +1.55 strokes-gained approach per/round at last year’s Tour Championship. That makes sense though: since January of 2024, Tony is 96th percentile in strokes-gained from 200+ yards out, and 96th percentile in strokes-gained from 150+ yard rough shots. Tony will have some of the best approach metrics this week – mark my words.
Tony has been pretty lights-out from around-the-greens too, murdering a similar around-the-green setup last week at the BMW with +1.28 strokes-gained around-the-green per/round. He’s been good with the wedges, gaining strokes around-the-green in 8 of his last 10 showings, and 5 of his last 6 showings at East Lake.
The concern will be the putting. Tony putted himself out of that Tournament last week with -1.26 strokes-gained putting per/round. However, prior to last week, Tony had the flatstick going, with 6 straight tournaments of near +0.5 strokes-gained putting per/round. While Tony had slight struggles with the greens at East Lake last year (-0.17 strokes-gained putting per/round), he has putted well here before (+0.64 strokes-gained putting per/round in 2022), and that was when his putting was in form prior to playing. I see a similar trend happening this year.
Tony has shown he can put up a result here – finishing with a Top-10 72-hole score in both 2022 and 2019. Tony won’t win the whole thing – but that’s the good thing about this bet, as he does have a tendency to get tight/nervous when his name is at the top of the leaderboard. Now, he can just chase that carrot (the leaders) all the way to the finish line without having to worry about pressure. Lock it up Tony Tone.
Pick: Shane Lowry Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+5500) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
We are getting to the longshots people – why not take a chance on the ball-striking European with nothing to lose at 55 to 1?
It’s so weird to see that this is Shane Lowry’s first time playing the Tour Championship. With a lack of course history to go on, and a very large betting number, what are we expecting with Shane?
Well, there’s a reason he’s 55 to 1. His short game is a definite weakness. However, I am really encouraged by the way his short game showed up at the BMW last week under very similar around-the-green conditions. While Lowry is usually lucky to gain even a tenth of a stroke on the field putting or around the green; he gained over 0.5 strokes per round in both putting (+0.60) and around-the-green play (+0.51) at the BMW. That’s actually really good Shaner!
When it comes to approach play – this guy chucks darts at the green. 9 straight tournaments of strokes gained on approach vs the field for Mr. Lowry, including ranking in the 90th percentile in strokes-gained approach from 200+ yards. That goes along well with him being about 75th percentile from rough shots 150+ yards out. We won’t have to worry about Shane’s long irons.
His driver isn’t spectacular – but it’s just fine. He hasn’t lost strokes off-the-tee in a tournament since March of this year, yet he also hasn’t gained more than +1 strokes off-the-tee per/round more than once in that same time period. He’s just what we need – solid and consistent driving the golf ball, favouring accuracy over distance.
It was only a month ago that this guy had back-to-back Top 10’s at The Open and the Travelers, and coming off the T-13th last week, I see another spurt of form coming. Take the longshot and get some good times out of Lowry.
Pick: Byeong-Hun An Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+6600) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
Ben-An is quite the mercurial player – but this is a pure upside shot ladies and gents. He showed me enough last week at the BMW with the Top 15 finish to justify this shot.
Why do you bet on Ben-An? Three reasons: driving distance, approach play over 200 yards, and spike putting weeks. Those three reasons are why we’re playing him this week.
The guy is Top 5 in the PGA in driving distance. He’s just as far off-the-tee as Rory McIlroy – and that’s saying something. While he doesn’t have great driving accuracy, I could see Ben still gaining strokes off-the-tee, as he’s gained strokes or broke even off-the-tee in 10 of his last 12 showings.
Since January of 2024, Ben is 92nd percentile in strokes-gained approach from 150-200 yards, and 75th percentile in strokes-gained approach from 200+ yards (with a 92nd percentile good shot percentage from 200+ yards to boot). Even with rough shots over 150 yards out, he’s above average in proximity (59th percentile) and GIR% (60th percentile). That all lines up.
Benny boy does not have a great short game – but it looked mighty good last week on a comparable short-game setup. He gained +0.99 strokes putting per/round at Castle Rock, and while his around-the-green play was below field average (-0.21 strokes-gained around-the-green), he had a lot of success chipping in recent tournaments like the St. Jude (+1.15 strokes-gained around-the-green per/round), The Open (+0.86 strokes-gained around-the-green per/round), and the Genesis Scottish Open (+0.54 strokes-gained around-the-green per/round). Those are good enough numbers for me to take the longshot on this spark plug.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
72 Hole Stroke Play Winner Market:
Pick: Sam Burns Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+1800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Wyndham Clark Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+2200) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Tony Finau Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+2800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Shane Lowry Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+5500) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
Pick: Byeong-Hun An Outright Each-Way* ¼ 4 Places (+6600) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365