We’re back with some more action this week my fellow golf-loving fiends! After coming so close on the Aaron Rai +5000 Outright last week at the Rocket Mortgage (he finished T-2nd after shooting an even-par 72 on Sunday, still cashed the Each-Way bet), we are definitely feeling like the breakthrough is coming. If you want to take a look back at the picks and analysis from last week – here ya go.
Nevertheless, we move on this week to TPC Deere Run, the annual course for the John Deere Classic. Much like last week in Detroit – the field for the John Deere is extremely weak compared to the elevated events that took place over the past few months of the PGA season. Again – this gets us excited, as we can take those longshot Outright Winner bets without having to worry about Scottie burning the candle at both ends while he cruises to a win. Before we get to the picks for the JDC, let’s take a deeper look at the course to see the kind of game that succeeds here.
The Course: TPC Deere Run
We head to Illinois this week – and what do you know – another very easy course for the PGA pros, just like we had with Detroit Golf Club last week. While the Rocket Mortgage winning score was -18, we’re expecting the winner here to surpass that, finishing anywhere from -20 to -25. Birdies, birdies, birdies – the boys have to splash their scorecards with red if they want to have any chance at winning this thing. Distance off-the-tee doesn’t matter so much here, as it’s a shorter course at just under 7,300 yards. Those hitters that drive it long will have shorter wedges in, but the largest number of approach shots come from 125 to 175 yards out (even for the shorter hitters) – so it’s not like these guys have to smoke their Driver. Driving accuracy will be more important because the rough is quite long and penal, but with a history of 71% fairways hit here (Tour average is 61%), I’m not expecting it to be the biggest factor.
As is often the case with these kinds of courses and tournaments – it will come down to (i) approach proximity and (ii) putting. The greens aren’t very difficult here (quite flat and soft), but they can be fast. Additionally, those 8-15 foot putts are going to be a constant (70% greens-in-regulation hit for this event). If your golfer can hit fairways, dial in the wedges, and make putts under 15 feet consistently – you’ve got yourself a winner (or at least a Top 10 contender).
So, without further ado – let’s get to them picks.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from this article is found on DataGolf.com
PGA John Deere Classic Best Bets – E/W Outrights:
Pick: Nick Dunlap Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+3300) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Dunlap to win, and one on him to get in the top 8. If he wins outright, we get the full +3300 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 8, we are looking at a reduction of ⅕ to the payout. So $10 E/W ($20 total) on Dunlap at this line pays $416 if he wins, and $83.20 if he only comes in the top 8. Dead-heat rules also apply – check your gambling site for the rules on that.
After watching this guy in Detroit – I’m feeling like he’s ready for his second breakthrough on the Tour, with his only previous win coming at a shooter’s course in the American Express tourney in January (with a score of -29 I might add, going up against the likes of JT and Shauffele). If you want a guy that can go low …. this is the man for you.
In all seriousness – he hasn’t had the most consistent stretch lately. But none of the guys in this field have – or else they wouldn’t be playing this event and would instead be in Europe scouting out the Scottish and British Opens respectively. Nevertheless, Nick is a long hitter (14/16 events in 2024, he’s gained driving distance on the field) and his drives have been a lot straighter than they had been previously (he’s gained driving accuracy on the field in 4/5 last events).
The approach play is where Dunlap makes his money, gaining strokes on approach on the field in 10/16 events this year and averaging positive strokes-gained numbers from 50-150 yards (meaning he is consistently better than Tour average at approach shots from this distance). Nevermind his putting, where he’s still gaining strokes putting on the field in 11/16 events this year. That includes instances like his T11 in Texas, his T12 at the Memorial, and his T10 last week at the RM Classic. In a field of guys who have parts of their game missing – Dunlap is one of the few that can get it done everywhere. Lock him up.
Pick: Eric Cole Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+4500) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
Woops, I mean this guy.
Yessir – we have ourselves a nice little piece of action with Sir Cole, who not only has the game for this course – but also the results with weaker fields. Oh yea, and he was Top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage last week.
Okay, but other than the high placing at the RM Classic, what has he really done? The answer: Not much lately. In the 13 events prior to the RM Classic, his best finish was T33. Yea, not very good. BUT – those were basically all high-level events with the best-of-the-best facing off on tough setups. This time around …. Eric gets what Eric likes most – no Top 10 golfers to compete with.
I mean, let’s just take a look back. Following a stretch of T14 or worse in the Fedex Cup Playoffs (still pretty impressive), he ripped off: a solo 4th at the Fortinet, a T3 at the Shriners, a T2 at the Zozo, and another T3 at the RSM Classic. Those are the kind of comparable fields we’re talking about. Even following those finishes, his next three events had him placing at least Top 25.
The driving accuracy has been encouraging (gaining fairway percentage on the field in 5 of his last 7 Events). The putter has started to get hot (gaining over a half stroke putting per round on the field in his last 2 events – very similar to his putting stretch when he was ripping off those Top 5’s). His approach play has been hit or miss – but he’s so much better from 100-150 yards out (+0.041 SGA per shot) compared to 150+ yards out (-0.002 SGA per shot) – which plays to his advantage here.
While his best finish in two starts here is only a T42, when this man gets on a heater – look out.
Pick: Mark Hubbard Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+5500) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
Hubba Bubba might be my most confident pick when you mix together his game with previous results here. The form lately has been a little middling (again, against stacked fields with tough setups), but A T6th and T13th here in his last two appearances …. how can you go wrong?
You can’t, because his putting is definitely the best area of his game. Even with his T52, T50, T42, T65, T26, and T52 finishes (in his last 6 events) – he hasn’t lost strokes putting to the field ONCE. That’s astounding. But with putting like that and a lack of recent success, obviously there are going to be significant holes in his game.
That would be his driving distance, where Mark lost driving distance to the field in 14/16 events in 2024 (only 16 events had that stat tracked on DataGolf.com for him). It is so hard for such a short player to succeed on Tour with some of the longer courses (mostly those played in Signature Events). But the funny thing is …. there isn’t a glaring weakness to his game other than the distance. He nails fairways (gained fairway accuracy on the field in 13/16 events this year), his approach play from 100-150 yards isn’t great, but it’s not the worst I’ve ever seen. Not to mention he’s dialled in from under 100 yards with his approach shots (+0.053 SGA per shot).
The man knows how to putt at this course, can hit his wedges well enough, and nails more fairways than most of the guys in this field. No brainer.
Pick: Michael Thorbjornsen Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+7000) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
What a young stud this kid is. My Lord, if I got on the PGA stage at the ripe age of 22 years old, I’d likely piss myself and run away crying after my first duff off the tee. This guy has stones to be playing the way he is with the pros – and he’s one of two Rookie longshots that I like this week (more to come on the next guy). Why do I like the Rooks to make a splash here?
We go back to this event in 2013 – you had Jordan Spieth win as a second year pro – his first PGA Tour win. 2014 – you had Brian Harman win with his first win on Tour after he had turned pro a few years before. 2017 – you had Bryson Deschambeau win as a second year pro – you guessed it – his first PGA Tour win. I’m sure there are other examples – but this shows that TPC Deere Run is a certified “breakout” course for young pros.
Now, Thor was cut from the Rocket Mortgage last week, and only had a T39 at the Travelers. But those were his first two real events on Tour this year – unless you count the Hero’s Challenge (where he finished a very respectable T11). The guy hits it a mile – but sometimes, his accuracy can suffer (-17% fairway accuracy compared to the field last week).
The thing is – he has played this Event before, and the fairways were not a problem (+2% gained). He finished T-17th, even after losing strokes putting to the field (for reference, the putting has been decent, where he’s net +0.38 strokes-gained-putting over the last two events).
The approach play is where Michael can struggle (though he gained more than a stroke on approach per round at the event last year). Further, he’s hitting greens at a very high rate (75th percentile in the PGA with ~83% GIR). I’m gonna trust him here with his form prior to joining the PGA this year (T5, T8, T2, 2nd, and 1st in five amateur events prior to the Travelers) and his course history.
Pick: Neil Shipley Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+8000) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
Wow, have I been impressed with the last few appearances by the 23-year-old Shipster. He made the cut at the Masters as a first-timer, and then finished Top 30 in the US Open in his debut. Those were two of the hardest course setups all year on Tour, with the toughest competition (field-wise). Some might have thought that Neil only rises to the challenge of a tough course and can’t go really low in a birdie-fest tournament. Sike.
Neil goes out there last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and puts on a show. Definitely had a tough Sunday at even par, but the -11 score he racked up after 3 rounds had him firmly in the Top 10 conversation, with a lot of upside based on the way he was playing. Birdie-rate isn’t a problem for this cat, that much is forsure.
We have a limited data sample size with the Shipster (as we had with Thorbjornsen), but what we have seen is encouraging. He gained strokes putting at both the US Open and the Masters (two very tough green complexes). He also gained strokes on approach at both the Masters and the Rocket Mortgage, and his driver has been deadly (driving distance and accuracy gained on the field at the Rocket Mortgage and US Open).
Legit – all this guy has to do is put his full game together. If he can do that for 4 rounds, I could see him skying up this leaderboard. And as we noted above – look for the first-win breakout here with Shipley. Love the look, love the guy.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and NFL Futures bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
PGA John Deere Classic Best Bets – E/W Outrights:
Pick: Nick Dunlap Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+3300) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
Pick: Eric Cole Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+4500) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
Pick: Mark Hubbard Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+5500) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
Pick: Michael Thorbjornsen Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+7000) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365
Pick: Neil Shipley Outright E/W* ⅕ 8 Places (+8000) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total) Bet365