That’s right, Plus Money has PGA Championship betting analysis to spare, as the top golfers in the world are in fine form heading into the second Major of the year, taking place at Valhalla Golf Club in Kentucky. This course last played as a Major Championship course in 2014, and scores have only gotten lower since then.
They’ve lengthened out the tees quite a bit, making this a bomber’s delight with shorter players getting the shit-end of the stick. The rough is penal, the fairways are narrow, and the winning score should not be very high (low double digits or high single digits). As it is for all the Majors, around the green play and putting will be very important for the win, but the ball striking and driving distance is the main separator in terms of success. There’s also the fact that this course will boast the most 200+ yard approach shots out of almost any course on the tour, so those long iron snipers have a definite advantage.
With all that said, this Major is so exciting due to one thing: the current form of the top golfers in the world. Scottie Goddamn Scheffler is coming off two straight wins, including the Masters, and the birth of his first child. Baby magic time. Then, you have Rory with two straight wins, one at the team event in the Zurich and the other at a primo elevated event at Quail Hollow. Lastly, you got Brooksy coming in with a win on LIV. These are the three betting favourites this weekend, and with the way they’re playing recently – they should be.
But on to the picks. I’ll be the first one to admit that I don’t lay heavy scratch on the top dawgs for Outrights in Major Tournaments. For those who do, all the power to you, and you should have fun with a big ticket on one of those three to take this Tourney home (full disclosure, my pick is Brooks). Instead, I’m going more for Placements, as we consistently made money on these bets in the 2024 Masters article.
But don’t fret, we still have some Each-Way Outrights on some lesser valued golfers that definitely have a chance to win. Without further ado, let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
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Each-Way Outrights:*
*Each-Way bets, for those who aren’t familiar, are basically a combination bet. You bet the golfer to win, and you also bet the golfer to come in a certain placement (i.e. top 5, top 8, top 10, etc.) at a smaller payout. So for example, I take Golfer A to win – $5 at +650, but also to place top 8 for another $5. Then, if he wins, you get the full payout at +650. If he gets in the top 5 and doesn’t win, you get a fraction of that payout (usually ¼ or ⅕).
Pick: Bryson Deschambeau Outright E/W Top 5 (+2800) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total)
Big man Bryson may have lost some of that bulging muscle from his frame, but the power is definitely still there. Consistently one of the longest hitters on LIV, he fits this course great. He’s also become less of a goof lately, so that can only help his chances. His form has been decent on LIV, but the real encouraging points are his ability to hack it out of the rough along with his propensity to fire lasers with long irons. His 3-D printed clubs at the Masters had him a lot more dialled, and I could easily see him near the top of a leaderboard with a chance to win on Sunday.
Pick: Will Zalatoris Outright E/W Top 10 (+5000) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total)
Zally may be slight in stature, but he bombs the ball better than most on Tour. He’s also good with the long irons historically, and this guy shows up for Majors. A ridiculous seven top 10s in twelve Major Championship appearances, and a solo second at this Tourney in 2022. The only reason for this price has to be his lingering back issue, but he seems to be managing it well by taking off certain events, and he looked mighty fine on that front at the Masters (T9 earlier this year).
Placements (Including Ties):
Pick: Cam Young Top 10 (+375) 0.15u
Gotta keep riding the Cam Young train in Major Championships. I can’t bet him Outright until he gets a bit more consistent to close, but he has a ridiculous Major Championship record. Five top 10 finishes, including a solo 2nd at the Open in 2022, in twelve Major appearances. The volatility can hit hard too though, as he missed the cut in six of those other Major appearances. His recent form is tough to read as well, with a Top 10 at the Masters followed by 62nd at the Heritage and a missed cut at a tough Quail Hollow’s course. But with the Major record and this price, we gotta play.
Pick: Byeong Hun An Top 10 (+450) 0.1u and Top 20 (+200) 0.2u
Byeong has been one of the most consistent golfers on the Tour lately. Guy smokes in head-to-head matchups, and the Tee-to-Green game is prime. A T16 at Augusta, followed by two Top 5’s in the last two events. He has the type of game for this course, he’s playing well, and I can’t help but feel he’s right on the edge of breaking through. But not at a Major – that’s why we’re playing Top 10 and Top 20.
Pick: Taylor Pendrith Top 20 (+400) 0.1u, Top 30 (+225) 0.15u, and Top 40 (+145) 0.2u
No real Major Championship success to speak of, but he hits it long, the approach game has been good, and the recent form is unreal. A T10 at Quail Hollow last week, a win at the CJ Cup before that, and a T11 at the Heritage. Those are his last three tournament results. With the heater he’s on right now, this may be his best chance he has to place highly in a Major – and that’s what I’m counting on.
Pick: Mackenzie Hughes Top 40 (+160) 0.2u
Two Canadian’s in a row?! I swear I’m not being a homer. Mak has just been deadly lately. Three top 15 finishes in his last five events – he’s only been outside the Top 40 once at T41 in Texas. Then, his game: surprisingly decent length off the tee, approach game is pretty average, but the putting ….. that can get hot in an instant. If he putts above average and the rest of his game holds up, this is an easy cash.
Pick: Taylor Moore Top 30 (+275) 0.1u and Top 40 (+175) 0.2u
His game fits perfectly for the course (long hitter and great around-the-green game) and the form has been pretty dece. Three top 20 finishes in his last five events, including a T20 at Augusta. I don’t see a Top 20 for him here, but Top 30 and Top 40 fits well.
But that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Each-Way Outrights:
Pick: Bryson Deschambeau Outright E/W Top 5 (+2800) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total)
Pick: Will Zalatoris Outright E/W Top 10 (+5000) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total)
Placements (Including Ties):
Pick: Cam Young Top 10 (+375) 0.15u
Pick: Byeong Hun An Top 10 (+450) 0.1u and Top 20 (+200) 0.2u
Pick: Taylor Pendrith Top 20 (+400) 0.1u, Top 30 (+225) 0.15u, and Top 40 (+145) 0.2u
Pick: Mackenzie Hughes Top 40 (+160) 0.2u
Pick: Taylor Moore Top 30 (+275) 0.1u and Top 40 (+175) 0.2u