Another Round of NHL Playoff Hockey in the books, another Round of absolute bangers that we got to enjoy. What a batch of Conference Semifinals we had on our hands the past two weeks. The hockey was insanely intense, the boys were battling for every inch out there, and we didn’t have one series go less than six games. That’s the kind of parity I’m talking about Bettman – at least you got that right pally. It’s what makes the NHL Playoffs the best two months of sports – along with all of the greasy extra shots and entertaining moments that come along with the break-neck speed hockey:
How about we do a quick recap on Round Two of the Playoffs to catch everyone up.
In the top left quadrant, we had what I viewed as the best matchup of Round Two, Stars vs Avs. I had a Future Series Win bet on the Avs, as I saw what they did to Winnipeg, a team built similar to Dallas with defensive dominance and opportunistic scoring. What I forgot to take into account was …. well, the Stars are just way more complete. For every Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk on the Jets, there was a superior Heiskanen/Harley/Lindell trio to match on Dallas. For every Sheiffele/Connors/Ehlers, the Stars had Johnston/Benn/Robertson to outmatch the Avs, and that’s not even mentioning the fact Roope Hintz (top six forward for DAL) missed the last two games of the Avs series. The Stars are just way too complete, with Oettinger rediscovering his 2022 form – it’s a damn scary prospect to go up against this squad right now (almost as scary as their mascot, who could make a case against Gritty for stealing his look and signature move).
But back to the bottom left quadrant of the bracket, where we had Oil Country against the West Coast City looking to change their area code to 420. Unfortunately, the post-game joints for Canucks fans were a sombre smoke after last night, as Edmonton dusted their hometown boys for a good 50 minutes of that game. The Couv made a very valiant late-game pushback, showing exactly why this Edmonton team can be so fraudulent on a night-to-night basis. But the Oilers held on, and the secondary scoring is actually picking up after the squad looked cooked in game five of that series, playing McDavid and Drai so much they had to surgically implant third lungs in the guys just to keep em’ going. But c’mon, look at this video and tell me that this usually reserved, quiet guy doesn’t want to win this thing as bad as he wants to breathe:
And then to the East, where in the top right quadrant, we had what I saw as the most lopsided Round Two matchup – and it kind of proved to be that with Florida treating Boston to a dirtnap. You had a great stretch Boston, but it might be time to take the expectations down a notch. This ain’t the Bergeron-Krejci teams of old, as you can see by Pavel Zacha manning the first-line center spot. If this team wants to get back to the glory they had in the past, the offence needs to be better. It’s pretty unfair for Zacha and Coyle to be matched up against Barkov and Bennett – not to mention Reinhart, Tkachuk, Verhaege, and Tarasenko manning the wings for those two. When the series is a wash just about everywhere else (goaltending and defence were similar between the teams), the goalscoring is the separator. And man, can those rats fill the cage.
Last but not least, we had the Canes vs Rangers series in the bottom right quadrant of the bracket. Absolute shocker to start this series with NYR taking the 3-0 lead, but it’s probably necessary to mention that each of those three games was a one goal game (two of them finishing in OT). Then, what everyone expected happened – Carolina woke up. They rip two games off in a row, one at home, one on the road, and have a two goal lead with 15 minutes left in the third period of game six. And then ….. the Kreidshow happened. Chris Motherfucking Kreider pops off and puts up the most natural hat trick these eyes have ever seen. Somebody has to check this man’s pulse; my guess is it never gets above 60 bpm. Absolute stones on this team, and that man specifically.
But now, on to the Conference Finals, where we have three futures bets for each series to wet the whistle of any NHL bettor out there. My combined record this NHL Playoffs on Futures Bets is 7-2 with $789 profit if using $100 unit bets. Let’s keep the magic going right to the Cup ladies and gents.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
If you want to keep up with the cash outs I’m taking, it’s easy to toss a follow on X and keep notifications on. You don’t have to take my suggested cash outs, but they are helpful in certain situations:
Series: Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers
Pick: Florida Wins the Series (-150) 3u
C’mon you degens, you think I was going anywhere else than back to my Panthers? I’ve ridden them the whole Playoffs, and they’ve cashed any Future involving them to this point. The thing about a team that makes it to the Cup Final in a previous year – they know what it takes to get there again. And while the Blueshirts had more success in the Regular Season …. we aren’t in Kansas anymore Dorothy – this is the Playoffs.
This one’s bound to be a close series, no doubt. Igor is gonna keep the Rangers in every game, it’s just what he does. Fox is killing it in the Playoffs, Panarin’s line is buzzing, and Trochek is proving to be a very important piece. At this point in the Playoffs, it’s difficult to critique any team, as there’s a reason they’re in this spot to begin with. But let’s get into why the Panthers have the edge here, because they do have something going for them that NYR does not.
Goal differential. That’s what it is. And I get it, nobody gives a rat’s ass how you win in the Playoffs; the key is that you win. But the Rangers have an interesting statistic that could lead bettors one of two ways: to support NYR for a series win, or to pull a full-on fade this Round. I’ll let you guess which way I’m leaning.
That interesting statistic is this: The Rangers were 23-4-4 in one goal games this Regular Season. They are 4-1 in one goal games this Playoffs. It’s a pretty ridiculous stat if you think about it. If the game is close, you can basically bank on the Rangers winning the game. The clutch factor with this team is out of control. But the problem with this all is …. how can you quantify that? I mean, sure, they’ve won most of their close games to this point. But have they played an offence this good, one that’s generating high-danger scoring chances at the highest rate in the Playoffs? Carolina didn’t have that. Have they played a team that’s defencemen can skate as well as Forsling, Montour, and Ekblad? Again, no, as Carolina has a bigger d-core more focused on positioning and zone defence. And goalies they’ve faced? Freddie had a much better Regular Season than Playoffs (let in at least one weak goal a game imo) and Lindgren got zilch for help from his defence.
So while I see NYR has the ability to win close games, it’s impossible to extrapolate that data and apply it to this series in my view. The circumstances are different, and Florida gets a lot more scoring separation from their opponents than the average team. I don’t know if you want to be the one constantly hoping NYR wins by the skin of their teeth; I’d rather be the guy holding a Panthers ticket where they’re going to be up by a few if they win. You’re choice on this one, I’m just trying to save your cortisol levels.
Pick: Over 5.5 Games in the Series (-190) 2u
I don’t need to give much analysis here (most, if not everyone, is projecting this series to go back and forth) to convince you that this is the play – but why not, considering this line is pretty juiced.
Neither of these teams went past five games in the First Round. They both played pretty inferior competition. Then, once the competition got better in the Second Round, each of the series went more than five games. Coincidence? I think not. Better teams = longer series. That math’s so easy, even a caveman can do it (shoutout to one of my fav old commercials).
Oh, and add this one to the ledger: going back to 2014 (10 years ago), here are the number of games the Conference Finals Series have ended at (18 different instances):
- 4 games: 3/18
- 5 games: 2/18
- 6 or 7 games: 13/18
I think that’s nuff said, don’t you? Hammer it.
Pick: Alexander Barkov Over 6.5 Points in Series (+140) 0.75u
One more little sprinkle to wrap this series up, this one’s the play for two reasons: Barkov’s on a heater and there’s a lack of defensive prowess for the NYR centers/forwards.
Barkov has already shown what he can do to inferior center/forward matchups in the series against Boston, putting up a ho-hum eight points in six games against the B’s. Not bad, champ. As I’m expecting this series to go at least six games, it’s safe to say he can easily hit this mark, especially with the lack of defence he’s dealing with in Trocheck and Zibanejad.
While Trocheck and Zib are both good centers, they make their presence known more on the offensive side of the puck than the defensive side. Sure, the defensive play is adequate to good, but Trochek can’t hang with Barkov’s size, and Zib can’t keep up with Barkov in open ice. I actually have Swayman and Boston’s defence as comparable to NYR in those areas, so I’m taking a shot on the Second Round MVP for this team to keep things goin.
Series: Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars
Pick: Dallas Wins the Series (-130) 3u
I have the same confidence in Dallas that I have in Florida – both teams just look superior at this point. And Edmonton, I love you guys – you play the most entertaining hockey in the league. The problem with exciting hockey is that it can be …. inconsistent at times. That inconsistency is where Dallas is going to make up ground in this matchup, as the Star Power (no pun intended) all rests with Edmonton.
Oh God, I really wish I could pick Edmonton here. My heart wants them to get through so bad; but my head’s telling me, as the great Nacho Libre once so famously proclaimed, “No Way Jose”.
I mean, didn’t Dallas just play the other version of the Oilers in Round Two, where they made the Avs explosive offence look like a failed mentos-and-coke experiment? There was no jump for Colorado offensively, and I attribute that to the way Dallas plays. They can still put up goals in bunches, but their ability to shut a game down once they get up is what truly separates them. If you watched Esa Lindell in that series, you saw how great he matched up with Mackinnon, limiting his chances to a greater extent when both were on the ice. Oh yeah, and you have a much better middle six group of forwards on Dallas when compared to either COL or EDM, with Marchment, Seguin, Duchene, and Benn all manning second/third line roles.
The true difference in the Avs series with Dallas was the ability of those lines (not matched up with MacKinnon) to control five-on-five scoring chances. And fair enough, Mittelstaedt and Lehkonen are good, they just aren’t that good. Now, the Stars go up against an offence primarily composed of two top guys (like Colorado with Rantanen and MacKinnon), with one really good offensive defenseman (like Colorado with Makar) and suspect goaltending (like Colorado with Georgiev). Are you starting to get the picture? The similarities are uncanny, and you know what they say about history: it has a tendency to repeat itself (just look at Raffi Torres and his suspension history):
Players don’t win a hockey game; teams do. If the Oilers had figured that out four years ago (like they should’ve), they would have a serious chance at the Cup this year. Instead, Holland has continued to put band-aids on areas of the team that required surgery. It’s because of this that Canada’s sweet baby McJesus won’t get his Cup this year. Maybe grab a goalie and some depth forwards for the next Playoff run Oil Country.
Pick: Over 2.5 Road Wins in Series (-135) 2u
No real historical trends to back this one up, but the Playoffs to this point are all the backup I need.
How about Dallas. 2 wins on the road vs VGK, and 2 losses at home. That’s good for a cool 4 road games won in that series. Against Colorado? You guessed it, even more road wins with 5 in that series. Surprising, but not the most surprising for a team that was the best road squad in the Regular Season.
It can’t possibly be the same for Edmonton, can it? Well, I wouldn’t be giving this pick if it wasn’t. Even in the LAK series, there were 3 road wins, coupled with another 3 road wins in the VAN series.
I’m expecting this series to go 6/7 games, so if you’re giving me 3 road wins to cash this bet, and it’s already happened in the previous four series (two with less games played than I project here) …. it’s an auto cash.
Pick: Heiskanen Over 5.5 Points in Series (-110) 0.75u
Last but not least, we have my favourite Player Prop Series Future of the Playoffs so far.
Heiskanen had a very quiet Round One, playing more as a defensive stalwart against VGK than the offensive powerhouse he’s shown he can be. And just like I guessed, as soon as the game opened up with Dallas playing Colorado, he started producing like a hose that finally got unkinked. The points were popping off like Trump’s tweets – plentiful, outrageous, and very entertaining.
But seriously, 8 points in 6 games in the series against Colorado. Not too shabby for a defenseman. And his opportunities increased aplenty when compared to the VGK series. I don’t know about you, but I’m guessing Edmonton will let through just as many goals/chances as Colorado. Ipso-facto, we got Heiskanen being a point-producer again in this series.
But that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Series: Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers
Pick: Florida Wins the Series (-150) 3u
Pick: Over 5.5 Games in the Series (-190) 2u
Pick: Alexander Barkov Over 6.5 Points in Series (+140) 0.75u
Series: Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars
Pick: Dallas Wins the Series (-130) 3u
Pick: Over 2.5 Road Wins in Series (-135) 2u
Pick: Heiskanen Over 5.5 Points in Series (-110) 0.75u
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