The 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are finally underway, and man has it been some good puck so far! The intensity is dialed, and there have been both defensive masterpieces (Boston and Carolina in Game One) and offensive fireworks (surprisingly in the COL/WPG series). While we have some Series Futures bets riding in round one from my previous article (FLA and DAL to win series, CAR to win in six games or less), it doesn’t hurt to lay a little scratch on some plays for tonights’ games. It’s a nice split: one Under, one Moneyline, and two Overs for four matchups on a wonderful Monday night. Get those TV’s fired up and grab a beverage, it’s a full night of playoff hockey coming your way.
*Units for me will be $100 bets. Bet responsibly.
Games will be listed below in order from highest unit bet to lowest unit bet.
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Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-125) 0.5u
I’m expecting a bounce-back offensive performance from the Leafs, even if it comes at the expense of a win. Toronto looked so lifeless against Boston in the first game; it was straight ugly. I get it, Boston does have great team defence and are absolutely built for playoff hockey. Toronto was also missing one of their top playdrivers in Nylander in game one, and it’s not clear whether he will be playing tonight. Regardless, I think this game goes Over for a couple of reasons.
For one, it looks like Toronto is going back to Samsonov in net. Though he wasn’t the only reason Toronto let up five goals in game one, he was a reason that they did. Not a good goalie, sorry Leafs fans. That goes hand-in-hand with the fact that Toronto’s defence just hasn’t been up to snuff, letting up way too many high-danger scoring chances. This Boston team can take advantage (even though they may not be considered a proficient offensive team). So, while Boston wasn’t known for tickling twine during the regular season, I’m expecting at least 3 goals out of them tonight against this suspect defensive team.
Then, we move to the Leafs. A very good offensive team in the regular season, ranking in the top ten in most offensive metrics tracked, goals are there to be had tonight. While Boston is almost identical to the Leafs but defensively (top ten in most defensive metrics), there has to be some give here with an offence this loaded. The Leafs actually got shots to the net last game, making Swayman work and put together a 35 save performance. I know I know, the shots were not of the greatest quality, and Ullmark is just as good as Swayman. But I just can’t see a world where this team puts up another one-spot tonight, and even if they put up two goals, I’m expecting this Over to hit.
Game: Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars, 7:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Dallas Stars Moneyline (-140) 0.5u
I’m feeling Dallas tonight, coming off a hot end of the season, to edge out VGK in game one, as I expect there to be a lack of cohesiveness with VGK due to their injuries throughout the season.
We’re expecting Stone and Pietrangelo to play tonight, which should be a huge boost for VGK over this series. But c’mon now, are we going to put our trust in Stone coming back full-steam with good linemate chemistry in game one? And Pietrangelo, jumping back into a top six that has done pretty well in his absence? These guys are amazing players, but I think we’re expecting too much, too soon.
VGK has a pretty deadly roster without those guys; but Dallas’ is much deeper, and I’d give them the overall skill advantage in comparison to this Vegas team. The first line led by Hintz will come out strong, but then you have Duchene’s line and a dirty third line with guys like Wyatt Johnson and Stankoven. The forwards are no joke. Then you have to deal with Heiskanen, Harley, Lindell, and Tanev? Gross. Oh, and if you get past them, you have to deal with a hot Oettinger coming into the Playoffs? It’s not looking good for Knights fans tonight.
Dallas, at home, should overwhelm VGK and play them very tightly in all areas of the ice. This is non-ideal for the Knights, and they’re going to need a miracle performance from Hill/Thompson tonight to stay in the game. Give me Stars baby.
Game: Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers, 8:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Over 6.0 Goals (+100) 0.5u
Ooooooo doggy, Edmonton is going to be rockin tonight for game one of this series! And I’m expecting a similar script to the COL/WPG game; goals early and often.
We all know the story with this Edmonton team; they can straight score. McDavid with his gaudy point totals, Hyman getting over 55 cheds this year, Draisaitl still bringing that one-tee on the PP, and Bouchard rounding into one of the better offensive defenseman in the league. It’s cup-or-bust for Edmonton this year (as it seems to be every year), and they are going to come out firing in their first appearance of the Playoffs. Oh yeah, and both of Edmonton’s game ones last year (including the game one against LA) went Over this line.
The LA Kings are a pretty decent defensive team, but you’re telling me that old-man Doughty, Mikey Anderson, and Gavrikov are going to hold this Edmonton team to two goals? Even with how out-of-his-mind Talbot has been playing in net this season at 36-years-old, they just aren’t built to withstand the attack coming from Edmonton. But the offence is still pretty good for LA. Stacking very good scoring wingers (Fiala, Kempe, and Arvidsson) with two-way filthy centers (Kopitar and Danault) is a recipe for potting goals, especially against an Edmonton team that has much more offensive firepower than defensive.
While I have Edmonton winning this game, I could see an upset. Either way, the goals are coming, I can feel it in my plums.
Game: New York Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes, 5:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (-125) 0.25u
Much like the first game in this series, I urge all fans not to expect a high-flying, goals-at-will, offensive masterpiece in this game. It’s just not who these teams are.
Carolina had a goals-per-game mark good for top ten in the league, but New York got a lot better on the defensive end since the arrival of Roy as coach, and the emergence of Varlamov on a heater gives them that added touch of defensive prowess. I’m expecting 2-3 goals from Carolina again; any more would be a surprise with the way this series is playing out.
Meanwhile, NYI doesn’t get goals (NYI was a bottom twelve team in goals-per-game) and Carolina doesn’t give up goals. A darling for the defensive metrics, the Corsi Canes have one of the hottest goaltenders in the world right now in Freaky Freddy Anderson, and the defensive core is rock-solid (and more importantly, playing rock-solid lately).
This series likely goes five/six games and I’m expecting more Unders than Overs. I’ll keep playing this line through the series.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-125) 0.5u
Game: Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars, 7:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Dallas Stars Moneyline (-140) 0.5u
Game: Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers, 8:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Over 6.0 Goals (+100) 0.5u
Game: New York Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes, 5:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (-125) 0.25u