What better way to follow up a Saturday Playoff double-header than with a Sunday Playoff triple-header where everything’s on the line? As an NFL fan – there isn’t a better time than Wild Card Weekend, as it seems like the best players come through with amazing performances when the lights are at their brightest, stamping their legacies into our collective minds. That’s partly how we structured our betting card for Wild Card Saturday – corresponding weaknesses in defences with studs who had something to prove and needed production for team success. And would you look at that – we went 4-1 for +2.9 units to get off to a hot start during this Playoff run. That’s all well and good – but now, we’re onto the next.
As I had posted previously on X – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to it.
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2024 NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Wild Card Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for The Wild Card Sunday Slate
Game One: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Keon Coleman Over 16.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betway
*Thankfully, the weather impact should be minimal in this game, as there’s only a small possibility of light snow and low wind speeds anticipated for game time.
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DEN LB Alex Singleton (IR)
This one is a bit interesting – as it seems like we all have this preconceived notion that just because the Broncos have All-Pro CB Pat Surtain out there, they won’t get bombed on through the air.
Here’s the thing – the DEN D has given up some huge receiving production to opposing WRs to end the season, which has added up to this unit allowing the 10th most receiving yards per game to WRs on the year (154.65). If we take out that Week 18 game vs the Chiefs (who were resting all their starters and had basically conceded the game before it started), this DEN D has allowed 4 of the last 5 WR rooms they’ve faced to go for 170+ receiving yards. That’s pretty damning – especially when you consider that the Raiders WRs and the Browns WRs had 200+ receiving yards respectively against this defence during that time period.
Add to that the fact that the DEN D loves to play man coverage (32% of the time, good for the 8th most in the NFL) – and it only increases the probability of WRs getting one-on-one coverages to take advantage of downfield. We’ve seen this a lot recently – as the DEN D allowed: (i) 3 CIN pass-catchers to go for 26+ yard long receptions in Week 17, (ii) 4 LAC pass-catchers to go for 19+ yard long receptions in Week 16, and (iii) 4 IND pass-catchers to go for 17+ yard long receptions in Week 15. That’s not even mentioning the CLE WRs and Raiders WRs who had explosive plays against this DEN defence prior to those performances.
And while Coleman may not have the stellar production that other stud WRs do in their rookie year – he’s good at stretching the field and converting long passes. Based on his snap shares through the year – this guy is the borderline WR1 in this offence, as he’s on the field just as much as any other starting Bills WR. Add to that his recent long reception totals – and we’re cooking with gas (20+ yard long receptions in 5 of his last 7 outings, with 14+ yard long receptions in the two games he missed that mark).
The Bills may try to move the ball on the ground vs DEN – and they might have some success, as DEN has allowed 3 of the last 4 RB rooms they’ve faced to go for 90+ rushing yards. Regardless – with the Bills D faltering as of late, and the DEN offence peaking, it’s clear that the Bills will have to hit some explosives to win this game and stay ahead. That’s Coleman’s cue.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 41 Rushing Yards (-120) 1.20u via BetVictor
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DEN LB Alex Singleton (IR)
This may not be a very popular pick – but do you remember when I said that the DEN D plays a lot of man coverage? Well – that’s a good start for a mobile QB, as there is a much greater opportunity for QBs to scramble when all the DBs have their back turned to the line of scrimmage. The other defensive tendency that’s indicative of a rushing QB having success? Blitz rate, as the lack of LBs in the middle of the field to act as a stop-gap for the pass-rush can lead to gashing run plays for opposing QBs. The DEN D blitz rate? 7th highest in the NFL at almost 30%.
When those two stats line up – and you have Josh Allen on the other side of things – how do you think it’s going to turn out? And we’ve seen QBs have success on the ground recently vs this Broncos D, which includes: (i) ARich going for 46 rush yards in Week 15, (ii) Justin Herbert going for 28 rush yards in Week 16, and (iii) Joe Burrow going for 25 rush yards in Week 17. Pretty good numbers for QBs that aren’t at the level of Allen when it comes to running the ball.
Speaking of Allen running the ball – his production this year has been stellar. 50+ rush yards in 4 of his last 7 full games played, and never a game under 17 rush yards in that span. If the matchup is right – this guy eats on the ground. And the matchup is definitely right in this one.
On top of all that – who do you think is going to carry the load in this one if the Bills want to win comfortably? I’d put my bet on the MVP candidate with loads of Playoff experience to make huge plays when the offence needs him – which will have to include some long runs based on everything we’ve seen from Josh in the past. Lock him in.
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- BUF LB Baylon Spector (IR)
Speaking of studs that need to put the team on their back if they want to have any chance of winning – Sutton definitely qualifies. The guy has been the be-all-end-all of this DEN WR group – as he has more than double the receiving yards of the next DEN pass-catcher this season (1,081 vs 503 for Mims).
If the Bills are going to blow this DEN team out of the water as everyone expects – you can throw the DEN run game out of the equation, as even the DET offence had trouble getting going on the ground vs this BUF defence in Week 15 when they fell behind early (only 35 rush yards for DET RBs in that one). And really – are you ever going to trust the three-headed monster of McLaughlin, Estime, and Williams when it comes to betting your hard earned money? Didn’t think so. That leaves the pass-game – and the BUF defence hasn’t been all that good at stopping opposing WRs as of late.
4 of the last 5 WR groups they’ve faced have gone for 145+ receiving yards – including the Rams WRs and DET WRs going for 200+ yards respectively. Slot CB Taron Johnson is still holding his own in the middle of the field – but that’s about it when it comes to this BUF secondary.
And would you look at that – Sutton plays primarily on the outside, where he’ll have the juiciest matchups possible in a game where his Rookie QB (making his Playoff debut) will likely be looking for a security blanket. That all adds up to a pretty good case for Sutton in this one.
Game Two: Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: AJ Brown Over 25.5 Yards Long Reception (-121) 1.21u via Pinnacle
*Again, the weather impact should be minimal in this game, but with some increased wind (10-15 mph) and light snow (if there’s any at all).
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (IR)
- GB LB Quay Walker (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
All-Pro CB Jaire Alexander still not playing in this one? The GB defence performing well against the run as of late (6 of the last 7 RB rooms they’ve faced held under 75 rush yards)? Yup, things are looking pretty good for an AJ Brown standout performance.
One doesn’t have to look further than the recent opposing WR production against this GB defence. This unit only allowed 135 receiving yards to WRs on the year (Top 10 mark), but in 4 of their last 6 games, they’ve given up 150+ receiving yards to WRs. And that’s not even the good part.
That part would be – how often they give up explosive plays. It was 3 MIN pass-catchers with 28+ yard long receptions vs this defence in Week 17, preceded by 2 NO pass-catchers with 20+ yard long receptions vs this defence Week 16, to go along with 2 SEA pass-catchers with 22+ yard long receptions vs this defence in Week 15. Not too shabby.
And AJ – well, he has 20+ yard long receptions in 3 straight games, and he’s had a 20+ yard long reception in 11 of the 13 games he’s played this year. That’s a nice baseline – and there’s plenty of upside for longer passes when considering this guy’s stature and skillset.
PHI will definitely lean on the run in this one – and they may have some success as the games goes on and the GB defence wears down. Nonetheless – that may make it even easier for AJ to hit a long one, as the defence will be so keyed in on Saquon and the play-action that downfield shots (which have been plentiful in this PHI offence) open up.
Game Three: Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
*The weather impact here could be a bit more pronounced than one might expect, but still not much to worry about. Small chance of showers, and the wind will be very minimal.
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- TB S Jordan Whitehead (Out)
- TB DE Logan Hall (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- TB CB Jamel Dean (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- TB S Mike Edwards (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- WSH WR Noah Brown (IR)
This game is a bit of a tough read with an unpredictable TB defence on tap. The one thing I am sure of – with the TB defence holding the 3rd highest blitz rate in the NFL (34%), Jayden is going to have to get things going on the ground.
The good news – after a slight dip in rushing production through the middle of the season, Daniels got right back on track with 65+ rush yards in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging over 68 rush yards per game since Week 12. With everything at stake in this win or go home matchup – it’s imperative that Daniels gets it going with his legs.
But of course – it’s not just Daniels’ rushing ability that we’re betting on in this game. Along with the 3rd highest blitz rate in the NFL, this Bucs D has two of the slowest LBs still playing in KJ Britt and Lavonte David. I’m trusting my “eye-test” when I say that – but the results have indicated this to be the case, with Daniels going for 88 rush yards against this defence in their only matchup this season, along with this defence giving up the 2nd most receiving yards per game to TEs on the season (the primary coverage position for LBs).
It’s fair to note that TB plays a lot of zone (6th most in the NFL) and they haven’t allowed a QB to rush for more than 30 yards since Week 12. Thing is – none of the QBs they’ve faced this year are close in mobility to Daniels (except for Lamar and Bo Nix – and both those guys went for 45+ rush yards in their matchups). Lock it in.
Pick: Zach Ertz Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.05u via Betway
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- TB S Jordan Whitehead (Out)
- TB DE Logan Hall (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- TB CB Jamel Dean (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- TB S Mike Edwards (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- WSH WR Noah Brown (IR)
Well, we’re all aware that the Bucs D is giving up the 2nd most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs (67.29). This defence just gave up 122 receiving yards to the shitty Saints TEs in Week 18, and allowed 117 receiving yards to Raiders TEs in Week 14 to go along with 77 receiving yards to CAR TEs in Week 13. Time to target the TE.
So why not target Mr. Consistency, Zach Ertz. The guy has been so solid as a “veteran bridge player” through the Regular Season, going for 44+ receiving yards in 2 of his last 3 outings while averaging 39 receiving yards over his last 7 games (and only falling under 25 receiving yards in one of those matchups). It doesn’t get more solid than that for a middling TE at an advanced age with less speed to rely on than most.
This isn’t a foolproof bet, but when you take into account (i) Ertz as Daniels’ security blanket, especially against a team that blitzes and plays a lot of zone, (ii) the terrible track record of TBs defence against TEs, and (iii) the proven production of Ertz – it makes for a pretty damn solid pick.
With the WSH RBs struggling tremendously as of late, and the TB rush defence excelling through the year (they’ve held 7 of the last 8 RB rooms they’ve faced under 65 rush yards) – I expect a lot of Daniels rushing, to go along with shorter passes to the middle of the field. That’s good news for Ertz.
Pick: Bucky Irving Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-114) 1.14u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- TB TE Cade Otten (Questionable, FP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
The last pick on the board is reserved for the #1 Rookie RB from the 2024 draft class – as Bucky has been on a tear through most of the season. 85+ rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games, and averaging over 65 rushing yards per game season-long (the stud cracked 1,500 total yards this year for crying out loud).
But it’s not only that – as Bucky’s also been getting the lion’s share of the work in this backfield ever since Week 13 (see ya never Rashaad White). His highest rush attempt total from Week 1 to Week 12? 14 carries. From Week 13 to the end of the season? He had 15+ carries in 5 of 6 outings. Finally – this Bucs offence has decided to give Bucky the bellcow label – and they’ve been rewarded in kind.
Further, even with Pro Bowl DT Jonathan Allen returning to this WSH defence to stuff the run – they haven’t been able to stop a nosebleed on the ground. 3 straight games allowing opposing RB rooms to go for 109+ rush yards, and allowing the 4th most rush yards per game to RBs on a season-long basis (113.82).
The Commanders defence has held only 1 (!!!) RB room through the whole year under 85 rush yards – and Bucky has a lot more skill than numerous RBs that have had more than this line in their respective matchups vs Washington.
Take it away Bucky.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Wild Card Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for The Wild Card Sunday Slate
Game One: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Keon Coleman Over 16.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Betway
Pick: Josh Allen Over 41 Rushing Yards (-120) 1.20u via BetVictor
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Game Two: Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: AJ Brown Over 25.5 Yards Long Reception (-121) 1.21u via Pinnacle
Game Three: Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Pick: Zach Ertz Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.05u via Betway
Pick: Bucky Irving Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-114) 1.14u via NorthStar