Well – thank the Football Gods that we had that Commanders vs Bucs game last night – because every other game on the Wild Card slate was anything but entertaining. Regardless, we had a lot of fun breaking down the games and placing some wagers – where we went almost dead even (6-6, -1.2 units) through all that mediocre action. The great part about this matchup – it should be just as entertaining as the WAS vs TB game, and the Overs should be flowing with two good offences vs defences that are susceptible to certain aspects of opposing offences.
As I had posted previously on X – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Wild Card Monday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Minnesota Vikings vs LA Rams
Pick: Puka Nacua Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.09u via Coolbet
Pick: Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (-128) 1.28u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAR RB Blake Corum (IR)
- MIN CB Mekhi Blackmon (IR)
I mean – was there ever any question that we were taking Puka in this game? The guy has been the focal point of the Rams offence ever since he was drafted (in the 5th round, mind you). This stud has 95+ receiving yards in 7 of 10 games played since he came back from injury in Week 8 – and the Rams have gone 7-3 in that span. Wouldn’t you think that if the Rams want to win, they have to feed Puka?
That’s pretty obvious – as we saw in Week 8 when the Rams took on the Vikings where Puka had 106 receiving yards on 7 receptions to lead the Rams to the dub. Matter of fact – every time Puka has exceeded 95 receiving yards this season, he’s had 7+ receptions – so you can see why I’m pairing the two together.
I expect the Rams to have trouble establishing the run game against a MIN defence that’s allowing the 5th fewest rush yards per game to RBs in the NFL (79), even with Kyren Williams putting up solid numbers this year. The scheme with MIN and DC Brian Flores is predicated on loading up the line of scrimmage to wreck opposing run games – so that’s not really a surprise.
Meanwhile – the Vikings’ secondary plays the 4th most zone coverage in the NFL (77% of the time), which is the only way you can run a defence where 7-8 guys are lined up at the line of scrimmage. Lucky for us – Puka is killing zone coverage this year.
48 receptions and 593 receiving yards vs zone on the season for Puka – and that’s only in 10 full games. The math is pretty easy – 59.3 yards per game and 4.8 receptions per game vs zone – and that’s not even mentioning the 31.6 yards and 2.5 receptions per game he has against man coverage whenever MIN decides to send the blitz.
You add those numbers up – and it’s over 90 yards and close to 7 receptions per game for Puka – but we haven’t even gotten to the best part.
In the Regular Season, the Vikings D allowed the 2nd most receiving yards (183) and the most receptions (15) per game to opposing WRs. If you want to beat MIN – you need to let it fly to reliable WRs. With Cooper Kupp struggling as of late (54 receiving yards in his last 3 games), the only option is Puka.
I might have some fear of QBs folding under the pressure that this MIN defence provides (6th in the NFL in QB pressure % at 25%) – but this is Matthew fucking Stafford we’re talking about. The guy has seen it all, and he comes up big when the lights are brightest.
Lock in this stud for a big game – it’s the only way the Rams have a chance to win this game.
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAR CB Derion Kendrick (IR)
- LAR LB Troy Reeder (IR)
- MIN RB Cam Akers (Questionable, illness, should play)
While the Rams D loves to give up explosive pass plays – (we’ll get to that in the next pick) – they haven’t been able to stop the run to a significant extent through the whole season.
They’ve allowed the 12th most rush yards per game to RBs (101), to go along with another 34 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields. They’ve allowed 75+ rushing & receiving yards to every backfield they’ve faced this year – which includes 95+ scrimmage yards allowed to RBs in each of their last 3 games. MIN RB Cam Akers missed Friday’s practice with an illness, paving the way for even more reliance on AJ as the go-to-guy in this MIN backfield.
And if you look at Jones’ rushing + receiving production through this year – it’s been lowkey stellar. 75+ yard rushing + receiving in each of his last 5 games, and a season average of over 90 scrimmage yards per game. Give AJ his flowers – the guy has been the unsung hero of this MIN offence where Darnold has gotten all the shine.
Lock in Jones for some good production in this one – whether it comes on the ground, or in the pass game.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.09u via Coolbet
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 27.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Bet105
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LAR CB Derion Kendrick (IR)
- LAR LB Troy Reeder (IR)
- MIN RB Cam Akers (Questionable, illness, should play)
There’s just no way that J Jetta doesn’t show up huge in this game after getting shut down by mediocre CB Amik Robertson in Detroit to lose out on the number 1 seed last week. This All-Pro WR has something to prove this week – and he couldn’t ask for a much better matchup than this Rams defence.
Through the regular season – the Rams D allowed the 5th highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs (13.64). You name the game this season – and the Rams have given up 20+ yard long receptions to at least 2 opposing pass-catchers. The Rams play a TON of zone coverage (3rd in the NFL at 77.6%), leaving Safeties 1 on 1 with opposing pass-catchers over the top on many occasions.
But it’s not only the explosives you can count on in this one – as Jefferson’s stats vs zone coverage leave this one wide open for him to convert chunk plays on more than one occasion. He had almost 1,000 receiving yards vs zone coverage this year (962) – all while being targeted by every defence he played; whether it be double-coverage, or additional CB help. Jefferson was every defence’s focal point coming into games vs the Vikings – yet the guy still performed at an exceptional rate.
Now – everything is at stake for Jefferson and the Vikings with a win-or-go-home game – so it would be crazy to think this guy doesn’t have some extra juice going into tonight. Meanwhile – Rams CBs are anything but impressive, and the defence as a whole has given up 140+ receiving yards in 3 of their last 5 games (with some subpar WR rooms in that mix including the Jets and Cardinals). I just can’t see a world where Jefferson is held down again in the biggest game of the year.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Wild Card Playoffs: Wild Card Monday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Minnesota Vikings vs LA Rams
Pick: Puka Nacua Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.09u via Coolbet
Pick: Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (-128) 1.28u via Coolbet
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.09u via Coolbet
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 27.5 Yards Long Reception (-110) 1.10u via Bet105