With Week One of the NFL Regular Season in the books, we’re beginning to realize that we’re in for one hell of a season (as is always the case). Some things went as expected – some went the exact opposite of what was expected (looking at you Patriots) – but it was entertaining nonetheless, with some very good games that led us to a winning week on best bets for the full slate. Stack that with the double win in Miami last night; and we’re just hoping we can continue to trend up with some dialed in reads for Week Two:
Week Two brings with it a lot of new opportunities – including the opportunity for some tape analysis from the Week One debuts of each and every team. While this doesn’t give a perfect encapsulation of how the team will perform throughout the rest of the year, it does give us some insight into team weaknesses and where teams may be exploited early on in the season. In every matchup, we looked for mismatches based on Week One performances and personnel knowledge – all leading to the following picks. So sit back, kick your feet up, and relax while we go through everything that’s pertinent to betting on these games.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Best Bets – Part One (First 7 Games on Sunday)
Game One: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns
Key JAX Week 2 Injuries:
- DT Arik Armstead (weird DNP on Friday – No Injury Tag, expected to play)
- S Darnell Savage (Out)
- CB Tyson Campbell (IR)
Jacksonville Week 1 Analysis vs MIA
The Jags took on a Miami team last week that really didn’t impress on TNF against the Bills. However, there were some takeaways that could lead to some exploitable matchups for the Jags.
First of all – the offence had a great 1st half – followed by a brutal 2nd half, getting shut out by a Dolphins team that gave up 31 points to the Bills on Thursday. However, it’s worth mentioning that Miami’s defence was done dirty by their offence against the Bills (3 picks, 1 pick-six) – so all-told, this Miami defence might not be too bad.
The offensive play calling was all clicking in the 1st half for the Jags. Jacksonville ran well on the Fins with both Bigsby and Etienne (Bigsby had more success), and Lawrence got time in the pocket to let plays develop and take deep shots, resulting in two significant plays for the outstanding Rookie (who I personally love) Brian Thomas Jr.
They put up 17 points by the half and things were looking great. Then – the Miami defence makes some adjustments in the second half to go along with cowardly offensive play calling on the Jags side. Everything became so safe, as if they could conserve their slight lead for all of eternity – and drives continued to stall out. They had an amazing 90+ yard drive in the 3rd quarter – ruined by Etienne fumbling at the goalline when he could’ve walked in for a TD. What a tease.
The offensive line also took a step back in the 2nd half. RT Harrisson gave up 4 pressures on the day (ouchie), and LT Robinson was very poor in the run game. Key missed blocks on 3rd & 1 and 4th & 1 made all the difference, and this offence sputtered out due to abandonment of the initial game plan and a lack of aggressiveness.
I believe the offence in itself is a pretty good offence – but the OLine has to be more consistent, Lawrence has to throw with more anticipation, and the play calling needs to remain aggressive. That’s a lot to ask – but I saw them do it in the first half of Week One, so it’s definitely possible.
The Jags defence played lights out for most of the game. I continuously saw good push at the line of scrimmage, with Travon Walker putting a leash on the Miami Tackle and dog-walking him all over the field.
The run defence was spot on (Miami’s RB’s, Mostert and Achane, were held to 2 yards/carry on 16 attempts), and the secondary did a good job of limiting explosive plays in the first half. Then – a few mistakes were made, and Tua connects with Waddle and Hill for 60+ yard gains. They were very impressive plays by the offence on both occasions, where Tua got it out early and had his speedy guy breaking across the field at opportune moments. However, other than these two explosive plays, the Jags defence held up well against everything but RB screens and dump offs (Achane had a big day through the air).
All-in-all, I was encouraged by what I saw from this defence, as they clearly do a good job of stuffing the run and keeping everything in front of them – with a pretty decent pass-rush to back everything up. It is worth noting, however, that the Jags are missing key secondary pieces in this matchup with starting S Darnell Savage Out and standout CB Tyson Campbell Out.
Key CLE Week 2 Injuries:
- LT Jedrick Wills (Out)
- RT Jack Conklin (Questionable, could play – LP on Friday)
- TE David Njoku (Out)
Cleveland Week 1 Analysis vs DAL
Hard to take much away from this shit-kicking – but we’ll do what we can. This is all about projecting how the Browns will look against a slightly worse defence than Dallas (Jags are close in my eyes), and a worse offence with a mid to below-average OLine (Jags Tackles are their weakest link).
We’ll start with the CLE offence. This offensive line really struggled establishing the line against Dallas, as their two starting tackles were Out for the day and they took on one of the better pass-rush duos in the league in Lawrence and Parsons (now, only one starting Tackle is sure to be out with Conklin Questionable (limited at practice on Friday)). The run game couldn’t get established, and Stefanski knew that only short/intermediate routes were possible with the OLine difficulties. Lots of short passes to Jeudy and Cooper, many of them unsuccessful. It just looked like everything broke down for this offence once the play started – with a lack of effectiveness in the screen game and effective RB dump offs because DB’s knew they could creep up and cheat. As this OLine goes – so does the offence. The Browns success comes from owning the line of scrimmage – which is the strongest part of Jacksonville’s defence based on their MIA performance and the personnel.
The Brown’s defence was a much bigger surprise than their offence – as they continuously made errors in coverages and gave up rush yards to some of the worst RB’s in the league. Tough to let old-man Zeke go for 4 yards/carry. And the vaunted pass-rush? While the pressure on Dak seemed to be present at times, the Dallas offence executed so well that it didn’t really matter. I had questions about this Cowboys OLine prior to the game with 2 new Starters (both Rookies) – but Dak was getting the ball out quick, and the Za’darius Smith + Myles Garrett combo didn’t really impact the game like we’re used to seeing. Gotta give the Cowboys their flowers on offence – everything was clicking and the OLine did a very good job. I don’t see many offences (including the Jags) executing this well with such a good pass-rush for CLE.
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-130) 0.5u via Party Poker
Pick: Under 41.5 Total Points (-106) 0.5u via 3ET
I believe this Browns defence will bounce back – mostly due to the ever pertinent OLine troubles of Jacksonville. While the Jags may have some success with the run against this middle-of-the-pack rush defence, if they get to 3rd and long, things will get hairy with Smith & Garrett going up against Harrison & Robinson. Expect sacks and stalled drives – similar to what happened in the second half of the MIA game.
That being said – I do not have faith in the Browns offence. Even if their two starting Tackles return, this unit should still struggle with a defence that owned the line of scrimmage against a decent OLine in Miami (we saw Achane’s 150+ rushing yards and the gaping holes) and brought pressure leading Tua to one of the quickest release times in the league in Week One. While the CLE offence should look better than they did against Dallas – I’m scared to expect much more based on the clear deficiencies at QB (Deshaun, you’re brutal) and TE (Njoku will be Out).
That all speaks Under to me – with an advantage to Jacksonville and the points due to their advantage offensively in the run game and the ability to shut down Cleveland’s offence both running and passing the ball.
Game Two: Indianapolis Colts vs GB Packers
Key IND Week 2 Injuries:
- S Julian Blackmon (Out)
- DT DeForest Buckner (Questionable – Game-Time Decision (DNP all week))
- DE Kwity Paye (Questionable – Limited Practice Friday)
Colts Week 1 Analysis vs HOU
Well I don’t know about you – but I’d be really encouraged by the offence if I was a Colts fan watching that Houston game. What a scrappy effort against a very good team in the Texans. Let’s break it down.
Offensively – ARich is gonna ARich. The guy will take out his rocket-launcher of an arm and uncork a 80 yard scorcher from his back foot for a TD – but he’ll also make you burst out laughing at his inaccuracy on short passes. You take the good with the bad when it comes to this guy – as he can get you back in the game in a snap of the finger. This team’s offensive scheme is dangerous, with so many deep weapons to go along with a great OLine. Man, the line played well against that strong Houston defensive front. While Jonathan Taylor struggled rushing the ball (3 yards/carry on 16 attempts), the pass pro was great, and I expect the run game to get going up against a lesser defence (Demeco Ryan, Texans HC, is sick at scheming against the run). Overall – an explosive performance, with some lapses to be sure.
The question against the Packers – will they get the run game going? I’m going to say yes based on how GB got gashed against PHI and Barkley in Week One – but time will tell.
Defensively – the team just didn’t look great. They continuously got beat in the run game, where Mixon ran all over their ass. Granted, Mixon and the Texans OLine looked good – but so did GB’s against the Eagles in Week One. But, here’s a key difference between the HOU offence last week and GB’s offence this week – the QB. I really thought the Colts did a decent job of getting pressure on Stroud, especially as the game wore on. While Stroud still beat them at times through the air, they did a good job of limiting him with all the weapons he had. That came at the expense of the run game, where they got taken advantage of to a massive extent. Now – all they have to worry about at QB is Malik Willis (assuming Jordan Love doesn’t play, as it would be ridiculous if he did play with the severity of his Week One injury).
It’s clear the run defence woes are still ongoing (they were middle of the pack last year in rush yards allowed per game), but could this be a consequence of scheming things up to guard the pass against Houston? It’s a pertinent question, but I’m leaning on the side that they won’t give up 160+ rush yards to Jacobs as they did to Mixon (but we’d feel alot better about this if Buckner and Paye play on the Colts DL – Buckner is a true game time decision, but I’d bet on him playing).
Key GB Week 2 Injuries:
- QB Jordan Love (Questionable (DNP all week) – unlikely to play)
- WR Jayden Reed (Questionable, likely to play)
Packers Week 1 Analysis vs PHI
Offensively, it’s hard to draw much from what we saw from the Packers in Week One, because things are going to look a lot different with Malik Willis likely starting at QB this week. If you haven’t seen Malik play football – consider yourself lucky, because thing’s don’t look good.
The Packers will have to lean on their run game if they want any semblance of success in this game. And they were able to do that in the PHI game, where they had over 140 yards of team rushing, and Jacobs went for 5 yards per carry on 16 attempts. The tough part now – how do they get the same looks they had in PHI without a quality QB to threaten the defence? That may be tough, as there should be plenty more stacked boxed and cheating DB’s to stop the run, snuff out screens, and eliminate dump offs.
The Packers defence against the Eagles – quite bad. There was really nothing that stood out as “adequate” for this defence in Week One. We have to cut them some slack, because the Eagles offence looked very good. However, the Eagles were able to succeed against the Packers with a style that’s suited to this Indy offence – run the ball hard and take deep shots. I don’t think Steichen is going to look at the GB tape and go, “ah, we shouldn’t run JT too much on these guys”. The game plan should be run-heavy, with the occasional deep shot to take advantage of Jaire and Co. in the secondary.
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-108) 0.5u via BetVictor
Pick: Green Bay Packers Team Under 19.5 Total Points (-111) 0.5u via Pinnacle
The Colts should run the ball all over this GB defence, grinding out yards and then taking shots plays – a few of which should be converted. I expect them to score – but I also expect them to run clock with ground-game execution.
The Colts D should be able to focus completely on the run after going pass-heavy in their defensive scheme against Stroud last week, leading to better run stuffing and plenty of 3rd and longs to get Willis off the field. While I could see the Packers moving the ball to some extent, it won’t be pretty, it’ll drain the clock, and they’ll have a tough time executing in the Red Zone. Remember – it wasn’t like the Packers had Malik Willis with them in Training Camp – they made the trade for him late in the Preseason. He should still be new in the system, making this an easy Team Under lean. How we lose these two picks – ARich turnovers deep in his own end and the Colts getting absolutely dominated in the run game. I don’t really see it – so this is what we’re going with.
Game Three: LA Chargers vs Carolina Panthers
Key LAC Week 2 Injuries:
- Edge Joey Bosa (Questionable, DNP Thurs and DR, unlikely to play)
- S Alohi Gilman (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- WR Josh Palmer (Questionable, downgrade to DNP Fri, pure question mark)
Chargers Week 1 Analysis vs LV
This was what Chargers fans were waiting for – a competent coach that could manage a game all the way to the final whistle. With Harbaugh unleashing an ulrta-conservative gameplan and a great defensive effort, the Chargers took care of the Raiders (with some early struggles). Let’s get into it.
The Chargers OLine struggled a bit, especially on the interior, to start the game. However, they got a lot better as the game went on, and were aided by a good run game with quick throws coming from Herbert. Crosby and Wilkins never had the opportunity to ruin the game – and as the game went on, the Chargers started to win the war in the trenches leading to two huge runs from JK Dobbins.
It’s clear Herbert is still adjusting to this offensive system (as well as adjusting to having subpar pass-catchers) as he missed some throws he would usually make. However, he got better as the game went on, and the Raiders have a pretty decent defence on paper – so that’s a good sign.
While their offensive effort looked mediocre on paper – they played within their system, continuing with a heavy run-game to wear down the defence. Classic Harbaugh football.
The defence under Minter looked renewed – but tough to draw too much with this Minshew-led offence. However, the run game penetration – something LA has struggled with for years – was much improved. Zamir White was held to under 3 yards/carry on 15 attempts, and this Raiders OLine isn’t all that terrible. Poona Ford is looking like a steal at DT, and Bosa + Mack are still coming off the Edge (though it’s likely Bosa misses this week). The pass-rush was inconsistent at times, and they got some good turnover-luck against the Raiders (Minshews throw-fumble was absurdly bad) – but hats off to them for taking advantage of those chances. Overall – I liked what I saw, but I’m still scared with this defence going against a competent offence. Good news for them – they’re not going against a competent offence this week.
Key CAR Week 2 Injuries:
- OG Damien Lewis (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- OT Taylor Moton (Questionable, LP Friday, likely to play)
Panthers Week 1 Analysis vs NO
Wow – I don’t think the Panthers could’ve looked any worse than they did in Week One. That was a shit kicking. And it isn’t like the Saints were Super Bowl favourites this year – they were projected to be in the Bottom 10 of the NFL by most. Well, I guess we can start the breakdown with this impotent Carolina offence.
This “renewed” Carolina OLine with two big FA additions on the interior and supposed “growth” at the Tackle spots – fell flat on its face. The Saints have a decent defensive line – but they looked like the 2012 Giants out there going against this porous OLine. The run game could never get going – which we kind of expected with the perennially good rush defence of the Saints. But the pass pro – straight bad, pretty much the whole game. And let’s not even get started with QB Bryce Young. I expected growth out of him after a full offseason and merging into a Dave Canales-led offensive system that revived Baker Mayfield’s career last year. They brought in one of the best separators in the NFL in Diontae Johnson at WR. And then – they all get out on the field and nothing looks right. The reads from Young are all wrong, WR’s aren’t getting open before the pressure gets to Young – it’s just a recipe for disaster. And while this Saints defence is not bad – it’s not elite like the Panther’s performance leads you to believe.
On defence – things weren’t much better for the Panthers. The pass pressure was non-existent – and this is not a good offensive line in NO. Add to that their best pass-rusher, Derrick Brown, is now Out for an extended period … things look bad. If things could get any worse, Kamara ran all over this defence with the lack of push they had in the trenches, ripping off runs with efficiency like he was the 2020 version of himself. Jaycee Horn, their best DB, got straight beat on a deep shot to Shaheed early in the game, and everything fell off from there. It’s not like the offence made it easy on them with their failures – but there’s no excuse for this performance against a decent, but not outstanding, Saints offence.
Can you have confidence in either side of this Panther’s team when they go up against a physical, hard-nosed team with good defence? Didn’t think so – but weirder things have happened.
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: LA Chargers -5 (-109) 0.5u via SugarHouse
Pick: Under 39.5 Total Points (-114) 0.5u via Stake
Chargers should absolutely dominate this weak Panthers defence in the run game, establishing Gus Bus Edwards and Dobbins early before implementing the pass to short/intermediate areas of the field. It will be a lot easier to wear down this Panthers defensive front (as opposed to the Raiders defensive front) – so I expect a lot of 10-play drives with loads of rushing yards – time of possession may end up as lopsided as 40:20 for the Chargers.
I can’t expect this Panthers offence to get going against a Chargers defence that held Minshew (who I see as better than Bryce Young) to such limited success in Week One. Even with Bosa Out or severely limited, this renewed run defence with Poona Ford should shut down the run game, leading to plenty of Bryce Young mistakes and misses. However, on offence, the Chargers aren’t looking to blow things out of the water. Their identity is their run game – and if they get up, they’ll rely on that aspect of their offence, leading to a lot of clock run-off and lower point totals. Ipso-facto – we’re going Under the Total as well.
Game Four: Las Vegas Raiders vs Baltimore Ravens
Key LV Week 2 Injuries:
- DE Tyree Wilson (Out)
- DE Malcolm Koonce (IR)
Raiders Week 1 Analysis vs LAC
Well – we kinda just went over this one above. But that was through the Chargers lens – so let’s switch to our Mark Davis sunglasses and see how things looked on the Raiders side of things.
The offence looks limited. The OLine isn’t horrible, but they had their struggles with blitzes and getting push on the interior with the Chargers defence. Zamir White was not impressive in the backfield, and there were plenty of broken plays due to pressure. The Chargers defence are a pretty good unit in my eyes – but the untimely mistakes piled up, and the conservative play-calling & game management decisions of Antonio Pierce didn’t help. If this offence has the time to let routes develop at the intermediate level, and if they can dominate the trenches in the interior with smaller guys, they can be really successful. The issue is – the Baltimore defence is very strong on the interior of the DLine, and their pass pressure is even more potent than the LAC Mack + Bosa duo – so things could get rough.
Defensively – this squad put up a good fight initially. However, as the game went on, the Chargers physicality and commitment to the run with a quick passing game broke them down. It’s not all on them – they’re offence didn’t stay on the field, and the Chargers OLine is no joke. The DLine did get good push at points in the game, but this was negated by a quick pass for a 5 yard gain – leading to the “death by 1,000 cuts approach” adding up and overwhelming the Raiders. This is still a good defence – but if you have the personnel and gameplan to beat them on the ground and with short passes – things become a lot easier. And Baltimore has ….. the personnel and gameplan to beat almost any team in the League on the ground and through short passes. Yikes.
Key BAL Week 2 Injuries:
- LB Kyle Van Noy (Questionable, LP on Friday, likely to play)
- CB Nate Wiggins (Out)
Ravens Week 1 Analysis vs KC
The Ravens had the toughest Week One matchup, going into Arrowhead for a Pirmetime matchup with the Super Bowl defending Chiefs – and they actually gave a good account of themselves (all things considered).
The defence – solid where I expected them to be solid, bad where I expected them to be bad. The secondary was nothing to write home about with Worthy and Rice torching their matchups on multiple occasions. However, the defensive front play – pretty darn good, with Pacheco getting shut down to the tune of 3 yards/carry. Watching that game over – the pass pressure was actually pretty good. Mahomes just got rid of the ball so fast – it was tough for the DLine to get home. All-in-all, if the opposing offence isn’t great at executing a short passing game with explosive playmakers, they’re in trouble. Raiders …. weren’t great at the short pass game against the Chargers (they’re most successful plays took more time to develop), and the OLine should cave faster than the KC OLine did. Ruh oh.
The offence and Lamar Jackson had a damn good performance. However, the run game was slacking with Henry putting up a stinker (by his standards) and a lack of push by the OLine. This prevented Henry from accelerating and getting downfield – which is when he’s most effective. Nonetheless, this pass offence can still carry the load with short/intermediate routes and catch & runs. But with the Raiders defence getting worn down physically in the run game by the Chargers, I see it as likely that when this game comes down to the 2nd half, run lanes will start opening up for the Mack Truck at RB.
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-110) 0.5u via Bet99
Pick: Under 41.5 Total Points (-105) 0.5u via Pinnacle
Who are we kidding – this is a smash spot for the Ravens to bounce back. They’ll get pressure on Minshew, they’ll stop the run in its tracks, and the Raider’s offence is mistake-prone. Meanwhile, the Ravens should be able to establish the run as the game wears on (unlike in the Chiefs game due to game script) and they’ll take away the Raiders main weapon (passrush with Crosby) with their creative short/intermediate pass game that gets the ball out of Lamar’s hands fast. On top of that, Lamar has the athleticism to turn a sack into a 10 yard gain. There’s just too much steam for Baltimore in this one, even with the 7.5 points.
The Under looks good because I expect the Ravens to lead early, with the defence stopping the Raiders offence continuously and a few good drives on the back of Lamar. After that, Henry should get a full serving and he will break down this defence to the point of defeat. The clock will run, and the score shouldn’t get too out of hand. Let’s roll with both.
Game Five: New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
Key NO Week 2 Injuries:
- DT Bryan Breese (Questionable, DNP on Friday with Illness, pure question mark)
- DE Isaiah Foskey (Questionable, DNP Friday, unlikely to play)
- OT Taliese Fuaga (Questionable, DNP Thurs and Fri, unlikely to play)
- CB Marshon Lattimore (Questionable, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
Saints Week 1 Analysis vs CAR
Okay – the Saints looked good in Week One. It was against the Panthers – let’s chill a little bit. However, there were some things that could carryover from this Week One blowout.
The offence looked good – and I’ll be honest, the motion in Kubiak’s system makes this a much more enjoyable unit to watch. They kept the explosive plays in the playbook, but brought out a good intermediate pass game with a run game/screen game that dominated. Yes – it was against the Carolina Panthers defensive front. Yes – this probably won’t be sustainable against good defensive fronts (unless this OLine made unbelievable progression in the off-season – highly unlikely). But I have to admit – this was a step in the right direction for a very mediocre 2023 offence.
Same goes for the defence – though anyone can look good against Bryce Young. The pass rush looked competent against a bad offensive line, and the run stuffing was ever present (as it’s always been in NO). The issue is translating that performance against an inept offence with bad offensive line play to this week, where they take on a Cowboys offence that is firing on all cylinders (at home). Can this unit really mix up Dak on his home turf with good pass protection and Ceedee ripping things up? That’s tough to envision.
Key DAL Week 2 Injuries:
- TE Jake Ferguson (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Cowboys Week 1 Analysis vs CLE
If I’m going to take points away from NO for their matchup with CAR, I have to do the same when it comes to this Cowboys defence against the Browns offence last week. The Browns were missing their two starting Tackles, and Deshaun looks broken in that offence. Nothing could get going – and the Cowboys pass rush and run defence took full advantage, dominating the line of scrimmage, allowing their DB’s to jump up and make plays. This one was over before it even started.
The impressive part of the Cowboy’s Week One performance was their offence executing so seamlessly on a decent secondary. Ceedee looked like he hadn’t skipped one practice this whole preseason, and the run game even got going to an extent. I was very impressed with an OLine that had two Rookie starters handling Myles Garrett and Za’darius Smith to that extent – though they were aided by Dak getting the ball out of his hands pretty quickly. Overall, this offence succeeded at the run, the short pass game, and the intermediate pass game, with a good mix of play calling in all three areas.
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -6 (-108) 0.5u via 3ET
Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points (-108) 0.5u via BetVictor
Are the Saints really better than the Browns? I don’t think so, and the Dallas DLine should give this Saints OLine a wake-up call after they’ve been riding high on their inflated Week One performance. Once Carr has his time taken away, he’s really in a tough spot based on what we’ve seen from him in the past. On top of that, the Cowboys DB’s are a solid unit, which should leave Carr with tighter windows when he does get the ball out. The run game with Kamara – severely limited with the way this Mike Zimmer defence dominates the line of scrimmage.
While I expect the Cowboys to do well on offence – there may be some stretches of complacency with the run game. The Saints will stuff the Cowboys a few times on offence, stalling drives. But the upside with the Cowboys pass game leaves a lot of opportunities for them to take the lead early and run with it. If that’s the case, I’d expect the Cowboys to close things out Under this number.
Game Six: New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
Key NYG Week 2 Injuries:
- N/A
Giants Week 1 Analysis vs MIN
Avert your eyes. Last week was a bad one from the G-Men. Good news – they have the lowly Commanders up this week. Let’s get into the Giants vs Vikings matchup.
This offence is severely limited with DJ at QB – no doubt. However, the Vikings D also brought a pretty good game plan against this rusty NYG offence. They had a lot of disguise blitz looks with 8-9 guys up on the line, and Gilmore shadowed Nabers throughout the day to keep him in check. Nonetheless, this OLine at least looks a little better than last year, and the pass game will be more effective as time goes on, with better matchups (specifically teams that aren’t too blitz heavy like this Vikes D is). The run game – an issue without Saquon in the backfield, as Singletary was anything but encouraging in this matchup.
The defence got picked apart – which I didn’t exactly expect going in. The Vikings OLine (projected Top 10 going into this year) helped a lot by giving Darnold time in the pocket against some very good pass rushers, and the run defence succumbed to some speedy backs in Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler. It was tough – because the Giants are obviously weak in the secondary and will need to rely on the pass-rush getting home for positive results. It’s yet to be seen how they do against dual-threat QBs (like Jayden Daniels in this matchup with WSH), but they’re athleticism on the Edge makes it appear more favourable for them. Further – it’s tough to project the Washington OLine protecting Daniels as well as the Vikes OLine protected Darnold (Washington’s OLine was projected as a Bottom 5 unit coming into this year).
Key WSH Week 2 Injuries:
- DE Clelin Ferrell (Questionable, surprise DNP Friday, unlikely to play)
- CB Emmanuel Forbes (Out)
Commanders Week 1 Analysis vs TB
Ooof – an ugly one for the Commanders as well in Week One, where the final score looked a lot closer than the game actually was.
The Commanders’ offence has issues. It’s the classic OC Kliff Kingsbury dink-and-dunk style with a mobile QB who takes off once the first read is spent. Now, it’s tough for Daniels to get through more than one read with how bad this OLine is, but there was no intermediate/downfield threat from this offence through the whole game against a Bucs pass rush that’s solid, but not as good on paper as this Giants defensive front. It’s hard to expect this OLine to hold up against the Giants front – but if Daniels can escape, he’ll likely be able to pick up yardage on scrambles. Whether this is a viable game plan against the Giants – time will tell.
The Commanders D looked just like we thought they would – dog shit. The pass-rush was stopped in its tracks by a good, but unproven, Tampa OLine. Baker was passing to the middle of the field at will, hitting Godwin in the slot and taking shots at Evans and McMillan downfield. Even the run game got going with Bucky Irving going for 67 yards on the ground with limited work. The Commanders defence turned away from the blitz (either b/c they got burned too much early, or because that’s part of Dan Quinn’s system), and they had poor DB play, which fueled the Bucs solid passing game to an outstanding performance. There were very few positives here.
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: New York Giants +2 (-109) 0.5u via 3ET
Pick: Under 43.5 Total Points (-110) 0.5u via Bet365
Here’s what I’m expecting – NYG struggles on offence, but begins to find more success as the game goes along with the pass game and decent OLine play against this WSH defence that lacks pressure and secondary play. Washington’s offence has more trouble against the NYG defence (as their OLine is much worse than the Vikings OLine was), and Daniels is constantly leaving the pocket while racking up the sacks and scrambles. Some of his plays could be explosive – but many will be short gains that stall out drives.
It basically comes down to the Giants D playing well – which I believe they can do against this style of offence. But it’s still not the most comfortable spot to be in. If you wanted to fade this game – I would not fault you.
Game Seven: New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans
Key NYJ Week 2 Injuries:
- CB DJ Reed (Questionable, DNP on Friday, unlikely to play)
Jets Week 1 Analysis vs SF
Cut the Jets some slack guys – they faced the 49ers after all. This was a tough one for the Jets, but we have a few takeaways from this one (not all negative).
If the Jets offence could just have every drive look like their second drive of the game against the 49ers – they’d be golden. However, the hyper-targeting of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall was not a sustainable strategy against a solid defence in San Fran. The pass protection from this new OLine was adequate, but the run lanes weren’t anywhere to be found. It seemed like they lacked push on the interior when it came to run plays, where C Joe Tippman looked overmatched against a pretty good DT in Hargrave. I don’t trust this offence to run unless it’s against a weak interior run defence, and the pass game will have its struggles with the lack of options outside of Garrett Wilson. They will have a few good drives a game – but consistency is at issue.
The Jets defence – yuck. I know this 49ers scheme is amazing, but this was a backup RB with an average OLine on paper – and the Jets had no answers on the ground. The defensive line is a serious problem for this team, with the departures of Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Myers looming large. The secondary and LB duo of Mosley+Williams can only do so much when there’s no push at the line of scrimmage in the run game, and a lack of pressure in the pass game. This looks bad.
Key TEN Week 2 Injuries:
- N/A
Titans Week 1 Analysis vs CHI
The Titans had a real let down after the first half on offence. However, there were some encouraging signs with this squad.
The run game actually looked very competent. Tony Pollard was running the ball at will and the OLine got a good push against a solid CHI defensive front. Levis was also running the ball, which is how he should be used, and they capped off a couple nice drives with good execution inside the 30. But then – the 2nd half happened. Levis looked lost in the pocket, WR’s weren’t getting separation, and the OLine started giving up pressures. While the run game worked so effectively in the 1st half – the Titans abandoned it to a large extent in the 2nd half. That, to go along with TO’s by Levis and Special Teams blunders, led to an absolute implosion by this Titans team.
When it comes to the Titans D – I was very encouraged. The run defence looks on-point, with Swift hardly getting any yardage on the ground with Rookie DT Sweat clogging the middle. While the pass pressure wasn’t amazing, the DB’s played great, locking up a good WR core in CHI with some good scheming and complex looks. There’s not much I didn’t like about this defensive performance from the Titans.
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110) 0.5u via 3ET
Pick: New York Jets Team Under 22.5 Total Points (-101) 0.5u via Pinnacle
I worry about this Jets offence more than I do about the Jets defence – and it all comes down to the matchup.
The Jets relied on the run game and intermediate/deep pass game + RB dump offs in the SF game. The Titans should excel in all of these areas when it comes to their defence, and the Jets should be stonewalled yet again if they decide to run the ball as much as they did in SF.
Meanwhile, the Titans offence should have some success in this game – if they play the right way. Run the ball, both with Pollard and Levis, setting up deep shots on PA and domination at the line of scrimmage. That is the recipe to success – and if they follow this gameplan, they will bleed the clock out while stalling out the Jets on offence. I could see the Titans outright, but give me the points for some cushion with Tennessee at home.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Best Bets – Part One (First 7 Games on Sunday)
Game One: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-130) 0.5u via Party Poker
Pick: Under 41.5 Total Points (-106) 0.5u via 3ET
Game Two: Indianapolis Colts vs GB Packers
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-108) 0.5u via BetVictor
Pick: Green Bay Packers Team Under 19.5 Total Points (-111) 0.5u via Pinnacle
Game Three: LA Chargers vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: LA Chargers -5 (-105) 0.5u via 3ET
Pick: Under 39.5 Total Points (-114) 0.5u via Stake
Game Four: Las Vegas Raiders vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-110) 0.5u via Bet99
Pick: Under 41.5 Total Points (-105) 0.5u via Pinnacle
Game Five: New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -6 (-110) 0.5u via Bet99
Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points (-108) 0.5u via Stake
Game Six: New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
Pick: New York Giants +2 (-109) 0.5u via Betsafe
Pick: Under 43.5 Total Points (-110) 0.5u via Bet365
Game Seven: New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110) 0.5u via Bet99
Pick: New York Jets Team Under 22.5 Total Points (+100) 0.5u via Pinnacle