Week 11 of the NFL regular season is in the books – and it was another banger of a week for the Plus Money team. We finished MNF with +3 units on a 3-0 sweep, which makes us 134-94 on the season for over $3,600 profit (if you’re a $100 unit bettor like me) – all player props, all overs:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee ($20 per month) on that site. We will still be sharing a free preview (all TNF and MNF plays) here on our site, and on Moneyline – but full analysis for my 20+ player props every Sunday will be subscription only.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Twelve: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: George Pickens Over 24.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 1.05u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- N/A
*I’ve seen the weather report for tonight – but the wind and rain/light snow seem overstated in my eyes. The wind isn’t overly erratic – and Russ is no stranger to playing in wet conditions in Seattle. Meanwhile, Jameis is a vet that’s definitely had his fair-share of rain games in Tampa.
This has to be the most square pick on the board. However – when the stars align in a matchup like this, we have to take it. Cleveland’s defence was at relative full health last week – and they still got lit the fuck up by the Saints and Sean Payton’s pet-project, Taysom Hill. And Pickens ….. well, Pickens has been on a heater ever since Russ was inserted as the starting QB (Week 7).
First point: this CLE D is allowing the most yards per reception to WRs in the NFL at 15.64 – and the 2nd worst team (LA Rams) aren’t necessarily close at almost a full yard lower (14.69). Could be the aggresive Schwartz defensive scheme – could be a lack of effective coverage personnel outside of Denzel Ward (every other CLE DB has a sub 65 PFF coverage grade – yuck). My guess is it’s a little bit of both – but the fact remains: this defence gets beat up by the deep ball, and we rode a similar mentality picking Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s Over longest reception last week. We all saw how that turned out:
Second point: this Steelers offence (w/ Russ) loves to air the ball out, and there’s no greater evidence for that than Pickens through the last 4 weeks. The guy is averaging 5.5 receptions/game for 91.25 receiving yards/game through that four game stretch. But the glaring stat? His long receptions in each of those games: 44 yards, 43 yards, 34 yards, and 37 yards.
I’m expecting Pickens to pull out another one – and with a line like this, it seems very possible.
Pick: David Njoku Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (+102) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: David Njoku Over 4.5 Receptions (-111) 1.11u via ParlayPlay
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PIT Edge Alex Highsmith (Out)
- CLE TE Geoff Swaim (Out)
- CLE OT Jedrick Wills (Out)
- CLE OT Dawand Jones (IR)
Uh oh – this Browns offence may have some struggles tonight with the recent news that OT Jedrick Wills is Out. Add to that the fact that backup OT Dawand Jones just went on IR – and CLE has to be thanking their lucky stars that PIT Edge Alex Highsmith isn’t playing in this one. Regardless, this PIT DLine still has Cam Heyward (having a great season) and TJ Watt – so Jameis might have less time in the pocket than usual.
So, who’s the beneficiary of that? Well, in my mind, it falls to Njoku – as the guy has an average-depth-of-target (ADOT) of 4.7 yards (lowest on the Browns). And it’s not like that low ADOT number is inflated by Deshaun checking-down constantly earlier in the season – in the last two games with Winston, Njoku had an ADOT of 4.9 yards and 2.6 yards respectively.
But just because Njoku has a low ADOT – doesn’t mean he isn’t producing respectable overall numbers. He’s had 60+ receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 showings, and 5+ receptions in his last 5 games. Pretty fucking solid – and while this PIT D may not have a susceptibility to TEs on the surface – looking a little deeper, we can see that good TEs eat in this matchup.
While the Steelers D are middle-of-the-pack in yards per game allowed to TEs (15th at 45.8) and receptions allowed per game to TEs (17th at 5.1) – their numbers are inflated by less-skilled opposing TEs. Let’s just look at TE production against this PIT D since Week 5:
- Week 5 vs Cowboys (good TE with Jake Ferguson) – 9 receptions and 98 receiving yards allowed
- Week 6 vs Raiders (elite TE in Brock Bowers) – 12 receptions and 95 receiving yards allowed
- Week 7 vs Jets (bad TE in Tyler Conklin) – 4 receptions and 7 receiving yards allowed
- Week 8 vs Giants (meh TE in Theo Johnson) – 3 receptions and 35 receiving yards allowed
- Week 10 vs Commanders (meh TE in Zach Ertz) – 4 receptions and 31 receiving yards allowed
- Week 11 vs Ravens (good TE duo in Likely & Andrews) – 6 receptions and 97 receiving yards allowed
You see the trend? If the opposing TE is even slightly better than the average NFL TE – they usually go off. Those bolded matchups above correlate the most with Njoku – as he’s a much better TE at this point in his career when compared to old-man Ertz and Rookie Theo Johnson.
Take these two to the bank friends.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Pick: George Pickens Over 24.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 1.05u via Pinnacle
Pick: David Njoku Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (+102) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: David Njoku Over 4.5 Receptions (-111) 1.11u via ParlayPlay