The full Week 12 Sunday Slate – finally here my friends. It’s been a hell of a year so far, with so many Playoff Contenders still looking to punch their ticket to the postseason. We’ve been laying heavy action every week to this point – and the results have been very positive. +28 units ($2,800 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor) in the last 30 days (we went 1-2 on TNF for -1.11 units, the first time we’ve been in the red in a while). And we’re looking to continue the heater with a deadly betting card this weekend:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee ($20 per month) on that site. We will still be sharing a free preview (all TNF and MNF plays) here on our site, and on Moneyline – but full analysis for my 20+ player props every Sunday will be subscription only.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Twelve: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Game on the Slate
Game One: Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Josh Downs Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET LBs Barnes, Anzalone, and Reeves-Maybin (all IR)
- DET Edges Davenport and Hutchinson (both IR)
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (IR)
- IND OT Bernhard Reimann (Out)
- IND C Ryan Kelly (IR)
Full disclosure – those OLine injuries to the Colts are a little overblown – as they were missing 2 starters last week in their best offensive performance of the season vs a faltering Jets defence. The Lions injuries …. a little more impactful, as they have holes in the pass-rush and lack a secondary LB to go along with Sophomore Jack Campbell.
Regardless – Josh Downs is that dude. Whether it’s Flacco or Richardson at QB – this guy is feasting in the slot (84% of his snaps come from the slot), as his separation and speed allow for explosive plays all over the field. In his last 8 games, he’s been Over 60 receiving yards in 7 of them. If you just look at his last 4 games, he’s averaging 81.25 receiving yards per game. Not too shabby for a slot-merchant.
Then – we get to the Lions defence. While they’ve been better against opposing WRs the last two weeks, that was against a Texans WR core w/o Diggs and Collins, and a Jags WR core with shitty Mac Jones at QB. Prior to that – this DET defence was allowing 209 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs – which would be the worst mark in the League by 20 yards (Baltimore is worst right now at 189). But we have to take into account the fact that outside CB Carlton Davis has been playing better as of late, and the other outside CB, Rookie Terrion Arnold, only gets better as the year progresses (as he gains experience).
What does that leave us? DET Slot CB Amik Robertson, who has 180 more defensive slot snaps than any other DET DB. And how has he done with this big workload on the inside? Pretty bad actually, as he’s rocking a 56 PFF coverage grade (rough) and has allowed 1.44 receiving yards per coverage snap. For reference – Arnold and Davis are allowing 1.01 and 1.14 receiving yards per coverage snap. It’s a tasty matchup for Downs – at the clear weakest point of the DET defence. Let’s roll.
Pick: Sam LaPorta Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- N/A
Ah, poor LaPorta – he missed out on all the fun last week as he was injured for the 52-6 drubbing of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Good news is – he’s going to be hungry to produce in his return to the lineup, and he seems at full health with full practice participation this week.
People may be hating on LaPorta this year due to the high expectations he set last year in one of the best Rookie TE seasons we’ve seen (though Bowers is smoking his season out of the water this year). Fact of the matter is: he’s been a solid TE, with 48+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 6 games, averaging 45.5 yards per game in that span. Sure – he’s not the TE1 everyone drafted in Fantasy this year. But for this team – he does the job, even if some of that production came with DET WR Jameson Williams Out.
That limited production has lead to LaPorta’s line shrinking to the current number – and while gamescript may be a bit of an issue, that’s never stopped DET before, as they love running up the score. The key to this pick is the Colts defence, as they’ve been getting gashed by TEs this year.
While they’re 10th worst in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs (56), their recent performances show an even greater tendency to give up production to TEs. Last week, it was the shitty Jets TEs putting up a mere 27 receiving yards. But prior to that game, look at these outputs:
- Week 10 vs Bills TEs: 64 receiving yards
- Week 9 vs Vikings TEs: 85 receiving yards
- Week 8 vs Texans TEs: 71 receiving yards
- Week 7 vs Dolphins TEs: 100 receiving yards
This may be a recent trend – but it’s a good enough sample size to suggest that’s where the hole is on this defence. Rock with LaPorta my friends.
Game Two: Kansas City Chiefs vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Kareem Hunt Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- KC RB Isaiah Pacheco (Out)
- CAR LB Shaq Thompson (IR)
The easiest pick in this game is KC’s rushing attack w/ Hunt going Over this line (CAR’s D is worst in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game to RBs at 133, and Hunt’s averaging 72.7 rush yards per game vs tougher defences through 7 starts).
But we’re also going with the other stalwart on this KC offence in Kelce – in a game where he’ll likely want to contribute and ramp up production after his 8 receiving yard performance last week.
Well – the matchup is here for Kelce to wreck with CAR giving up big production to opposing TEs. The Panthers D is 7th worst in the NFL in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs (60.80), and have allowed recent performances such as 99 receiving yards allowed to the gaggle of NO TEs in Week 9, and 106 receiving yards to the low-skill DEN TEs in Week 8 (Adam Trautman had his career high in yardage that game with 85).
I mean – if Trautman can have a career day against this defence – what does that mean for Kelce? Don’t forget, before that stinker last week, Kelce had 5 of 6 games with 64+ receiving yards, with notable performances like 100 receiving yards vs TB, and 90 receiving yards vs LV (both are among the 5 worst defences against opposing TEs).
It seems to be that the Chiefs are seeing the same thing as I am – if a defence is bad against opposing TEs; feed Kelce. Pretty simple.
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