I’ll tell you what – that was a slobberknocker of a Week 2 in the NFL, with more than a few favourites falling on their swords. The dogs were barking and multiple “elite” teams tucked tail and ran, with underdogs of 5.5 points or more at 9-1 against-the-spread thus far (which includes 5 outright wins):
We had confidence in the favourites last week after going through the film and the data – but at the end of the day, our projections (based on Week 1) didn’t carry.
These things happen – it’s a volatile game, and -6.5 spreads can be covered in an instant. We have faith in the analysis – and we’re also going to start laying some player props out based on PFF data, statistical analysis, and projected gamescripts. All while having some fun with everything – because that’s what sports betting should be about. So, let’s flip the script on last week and come out swinging with a classic Thursday Nighter.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
Analysis: Mismatches and Strengths/Weaknesses
NE Analysis: Mismatches and Strengths/Weaknesses
NE Injuries:
- OG Sidy Sow (Out)
- LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Out)
- OT Vederian Lowe (Out)
- OT Mike Onwenu (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- S Jabrill Peppers (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- C David Andrews (Questionable, LP Tues and Weds, likely to play)
- DE Deatrich Wise (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
Wow – that’s a pretty stacked injury list for Week 3 of the Season. I swear – the injury situation in the NFL just gets worse every year. Let’s get this out of the way – all the Questionable guys should play. Not exactly encouraging to see two of the better NE starting OLineman (Onwenu and Andrews) banged up, but they should be good to go. Further, Sidy Sow (OG) hasn’t played yet this year, so the only key injuries are LT Lowe and LB Bentley.
Lowe has played adequately to this point as the starting LT, allowing 7 pressures but still holding an average PFF pass block grade of 64.7. With Lowe out, the likely replacement is Rookie OT Caeden Wallace, who has done well as the 6th OLineman in certain run-blocking packages, but has yet to be tested with a pass-rush at the NFL level. If anything looks like it’ll take it hit – it’ll be the pass blocking, not the run blocking for this NE OLine.
Bentley is a solid ILB (had an 80.4 PFF defensive grade in 2022, a very impressive grade). He’s also a leader on this defence that helps everything take shape. It’ll be tough for NE to fill this spot – but they’ll try with their next-man-up replacement in Raekwon McMillan. McMillan used to be a solid run defender in Miami, but over the last two years of his career, his PFF rush defence grade has dropped significantly. He was better in PFF coverage grading in Week 2 vs Seattle (78.3 grade), but that was a limited sample when looking at his porous career PFF coverage grade (right around 40 – that’s baddddd). Overall, this looks like a downgrade to the middle of the NE defence when it comes to both the run and the pass.
NE Offence
The PFF grades bear this out – the NE offence is getting by through the sheer grit of their RB room. Rhamondre Stevenson is running the show right now, holding an elite 79.7 PFF rush grade and 170 rush yards after contact (with 201 total rush yards to show for it). That 201 yard total vs 170 yards after contact should show you how mediocre this OLine has been when run blocking – aside from C Andrews, things aren’t great. However, as I touched on above – the fact that Caeden Wallace (67.3 run block grade) is in at LT over Lowe (54.2 run block grade) may help the run game. In addition to Rhamondre, the Pats also got RB Antonio Gibson going last week, with 96 rush yards on 11 rush attempts behind a huge 40+ yard gain late in the game. There’s no reason for NE to sway from their usual gameplan in this one – run the ball – a lot.
The reason they run the ball so much – the pass game with Brissett is ultra-conservative. This is primarily for two reasons – (i) poor pass protection and (ii) ball security. The proof is in the pudding for the poor pass blocking – aside from interior studs C David Andrews and LG Michael Jordan (both over 70 PFF pass block grades). The big issue is with the right side of this line, where OG Robinson and OT Onwenu have combined for 11 pressures through 2 games with sub-60 PFF pass blocking grades. That’s not great Bob.
In terms of the focus on ball security – it makes sense for Jacoby Brissett to lean on his strengths with targets to the TEs and slot WRs within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Their best pass-catching weapon is Hunter Henry (sad, but it is) – and they targeted him as such last game, leading him to racking up 100 yards receiving in an inept passing offence. Regardless of the pass target – it’s clear they’re picking on slot CB’s and LB’s. In Week 1 vs Cincy, they took advantage of SLCB Mike Hilton (40.8 coverage grade through 2 weeks) and ILB Pratt (59.6 coverage grade through 2 weeks) with short passes to the middle of the field. In Week 2, they picked on backup ILB Tyrice Knight in SEA (terrible coverage grade) with the Hunter Henry show. In this game – they’ll likely rely on the same plan, as it’s not like they were forced to go short with the pass-rush units on Cincy and Seattle.
NE Defence
Overall – this defence actually relies on pressure on the QB more than anything else. Which is crazy to think when you consider the personnel – but Mayo has these boys playing on demon time out there. In Week 1 vs Cincinatti, the Patriots blitzed 25% of the time (pretty solid blitz rate) and LE Keion White absolutely worked RT Trent Brown, racking up a 90.8 PFF grade with 3 sacks to go along with 17 total hurries by the NE defence. Trent Brown actually had a decent game in Week 2 against KC – so tough to pin it all on a bad matchup. Then, in Week 2 vs Seattle, the Patriots blitz 50%(!!!!) of the time, with LE White again going off for 2 sacks to go along with 14 total hurries by the NE defence. This was against a bad backup RT in SEA (Forsythe), so it could be the matchup. I stand by the view that this NE pass-rush is effective – but hasn’t been tested too much and can be exploited when relying on the blitz too much (as we saw with the 300+ passing yards Geno Smith had in Week 2).
That connects with where NE can be exploited in pass coverage. In Week 1, Cincy relied on the short passing game, and NE was exploited at LB and S (with 9 of 21 receptions coming at the expense of ILB Bentley and S Dugger). Even standout CB Christian Gonzales played poorly (53.2 PFF coverage grade). In Week 2, the Seahawks also exploited the NE Safeties and LBs (11 receptions allowed between ILB Tavai and S Dugger) with an added focus on the slot (SLCB Marcus Jones got burnt for 7 receptions and 63 yards). You see the recipe here – short passes to the slot + RB screen/dump offs are an effective way to beat this defence, with the occasional deep shot thrown in to keep the outside CBs honest.
The rush defence might look good if you just look at opposing rushing yardage in the box score – but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Cincy only ran the ball 13 times in Week 1 – but the NE LB and DB rush defence grades were bad, with the Cincy OLine ranking much better on PFF in this matchup than their matchup vs KC in Week 2. In Week 2 vs Seattle – NE got lucky they didn’t have to go against Kenneth Walker at RB (he was Out), yet the NE LB’s and DLine still had bad PFF rush defence grades. That was with a mere 18 rush attempts and sub-60 PFF grades in run blocking by both SEA Tackles. While New England has only allowed 116 rush yards this year, they’re ranked T-16th in PFF total rush defence (59.2). With a potent run blocking OLine and a decent RB vs this NE defence – look out, cause things could get hairy.
NYJ Analysis: Mismatches and Strengths/Weaknesses
NYJ Injuries:
- DE Jermain Johnson (Out)
- ILB CJ Mosley (Questionable, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
The Jermaine Johnson loss is huge to this already struggling Jets pass-rush, as he has 3 more hurries than the next guy on the Jets (7 hurries) and the 2nd best pass-rush PFF grade in true passing sets (69.5). This just means more snaps for DE Will MacDonald (okay in passrush, but gets killed in the run game) and DE Michael Clemons (60.7 pass rush grade, 46.5 rush defence grade). Yikes.
The loss of CJ Mosley may seem more impactful than that of Jermaine Johnson – but it really isn’t with the way ILB Jamien Sherwood stepped up in Week 2, racking up an elite 82.7 PFF defensive grade with a 78.3 PFF pass coverage grade to boot. It wasn’t like this was a limited sample size – he played 54 total snaps. I wouldn’t expect much of a drop off with Quincy Williams still manning the other ILB position (72.6 PFF defensive grade with 75.4 PFF pass coverage grade – solid AF).
NYJ Offence
We can start with this subpar rushing offence, despite a Top 3 RB toting the pigskin in Breece Hall. In Week 1 vs SF – the OLine just had a rough time getting any push (outside of LT Tyron Smith, who logged a 74.4 PFF run block grade). Center Joe Tippman really struggled with a 50.4 PFF run block grade, and Breece was only able to get 57 yards after contact – but it was obvious he made the most of things considering he only had 54 total rush yards. In Week 2 vs Tennessee – things looked a lot better, with Tippman and Smith both going over 80 on the PFF run block grade. It showed, with Rookie RB Braelon Allen and Breece combining for over 100 yards rushing with 99 yards after contact. However – RT Morgan Moses and LG John Simpson still struggled with ~60 PFF run block grades. The Titans DLine graded out well on PFF for rush defence against NE, but the LB’s and Safeties did not. From this – it appears as though the Jets have more success with the run when the opposing Safeties and LB’s aren’t as strong, as SF ILB Fred Warner and S Ja’ayir Brown both played great against the run in Week 1 vs the Jets.
In terms of the Jets passing game – the OLine has actually taken a huge step up from last year. Other than RT Morgan Moses putting up a stinker against SF with Bosa coming off the edge in Week One (22.4 PFF pass block grade – ouchie) – everyone has performed well in giving Aaron Rodgers a clean pocket. Now, it’s not like the Titans are worldbeaters on the DLine (they were able to get pressure on the Bears in Week 1 – but that’s the shitty Bears), but it was encouraging to see this Jets OLine unit with 4 guys over 70 on the PFF pass block grading scale. However, it is odd to note – SF blitzed a lot less against NYJ than TEN did in Week 2 (9% vs 27%). The only way for me to make sense of the Jets being better against Tennessee despite the increased blitz rate – the Jets offence is predicated on screens and short passes (an 18% screen rate in both games is absurdly high, and 70% of the Jets passes are less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage). It’s clear that the RB’s are a big part of this Jets passing game with Breece and Allen combining for 12 targets in Week 2, torching TEN ILB Kenneth Murray to the tune of 6 receptions for 73 yards (leading to a 45.4 PFF pass coverage grade). Other than the RB’s – expect Garrett Wilson to make up for the rest of this passing game (29.3% target share).
NYJ Defence
Gone is the vaunted NYJ defence of 2023. The losses of DE Bryce Huff and DT John Franklin Myers in FA, combined with the holdout of OLB Hasson Reddick and season-ending injury of DE Jermaine Johnson, has led to this unit’s downward spiral.
As I pointed out above, it’s going to be tough for the Jets to get a pass-rush going with their pressure leader out for the season (Jermaine Johnson). In Week 2, against a very below-average Titans OLine (7th worst team in PFF pass block grades), the Jets could only manage 3 sacks. Standout DT Quinnen Williams can’t get anything going (53.2 pass rush grade), with opposing OLine’s focus primarily on him – which was on full display vs SF in Week 1. DT Javon Kinlaw actually had a pretty good game in Week 1 (79.1 PFF pass rush grade) due to the increased focus on Quinnen – but it ended with the Jets producing only 1 sack and a mere 12 hurries on 36 pass snaps. Ruh roh.
The NYJ run defence – really not much better. They got gashed in Week 1 vs SF, where the Secondary and LB’s had decent PFF run defence grades – but the DLine didn’t. This isn’t encouraging, considering the SF offensive line didn’t have such great run blocking against MIN in Week 2. Against the Titans in Week 2, this Jets defence buckled up with good LB play from the previously mentioned ILB Sherwood, but yet again – the DLine didn’t get anything going against a mid rushing OLine in Tennessee (T-17th PFF run block grade). Both times – the opposing team exceeded 120 yards on the ground with great PFF RB grades. Bad news Jets fans.
In pass coverage – where this defence should make their money – they’ve been getting burnt. It didn’t help that CB2 DJ Reed was out last week vs the Titans – but Sauce got absolutely torched by Calvin Ridley leading to a very shitty 30.4 PFF coverage grade. In Week 1, it was S Chuck Clark and SLCB Michael Carter getting burnt with sub-55 PFF coverage grades. Interesting to note – both SF and TEN had more than half of their pass attempts at over 10 yards from the line of scrimmage – indicating that it’s easier to beat this team with intermediate/deep passing than it is underneath.
TNF Best Bets – NE Patriots vs NYJ
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 64.5 Rush Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
The pick with Rhamondre just makes too much sense considering the strengths of this NE offence and the weaknesses of this NYJ defence. All-Pro NYJ DT Quinnen Williams has struggled with a 58.6 PFF rush defence grade through 2 weeks (and he wasn’t going against worldbeaters on the interior with the TEN and SF offensive lines). On top of that, the Jets rank as the 5th worst PFF rush defence on the season to this point, and they lose two of their better pieces in DE Jermaine Johnson and ILB CJ Mosley. NE’s addition of Caeden Wallace at LT with his superior PFF run blocking grade should help this average OLine, with Rhamondre continuing to produce stellar yards-after-contact numbers. Don’t be afraid of Gibson and his increased workload last week – Rhamondre still racked up 49+ snaps and had 20+ rush attempts both weeks, leading to 201 rush yards through 2 games.
Game script will play a part in this – and I believe it should work in Mondre’s favour with the NYJ lacking the explosive plays to get this one too out of hand early in the matchup. Couple that with the NYJ defence playing better against a short passing attack with DJ Reed back in the lineup – the Patriots should lean exclusively on the run with a focus on both RB’s getting over 15 touches. Let’s roll.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Rush Over 15.5 Rush Yards (-102) 1.0u via Betano
I also saw the sign when it comes to this Jets DLine – Mondre should be able to get to the second level at least a few times throughout this game. And while I see Jets ILB Sherwood as an adequate replacement for ILB Mosley, it’s still a dicey proposition relying on this Jets LB/Secondary core to make tackles. The Jets are 7th worst in the NFL in PFF tackling grade, with 17 missed tackles through 2 games. Combine that stat with the fact that Mondre has six 10+ yard runs in 2 games thus far – and NYJ has allowed nine 10+ yard runs through 2 games – it’s a recipe for a dub on this one, despite the fact that Mondre might not be the fleetest of foot.
Pick: Breece Hall Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Breece Hall Over 4.5 Receptions (+104) 1.0u via Betano
I could see either of these hitting – which means I’m taking them both. The fact of the matter is – this NE defence has a serious deficiency when it comes to covering pass-catching RBs.
The loss of ILB Bentley hurts NE’s pass coverage in the short areas of the field, and this is without even considering the fact that Patriots Safeties and LB’s have already been burnt through the air. ILB Tavai and Safety Dugger have struggled to this point of the season based on their PFF coverage grades, and we’ve seen how much this NE defence likes to blitz (4th in the NFL in blitz rate – over 35%). That means a lot of quick passes and check downs, to go along with some RB screens (where the Jets ran an absurd 18% of pass plays as screens through 2 weeks).
Oh – and Breece has already hit these lines in both games to this point. 5 catches for 39 yards receiving Week 1 vs SF, 7 receptions for 52 yards receiving Week 2 vs TEN. Let’s go Breece heavy.
Pick: Kyle Dugger Over 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-105) 1.0u via NorthStar
This one stems from the above points. With Breece catching a few balls, and the Jets giving their RB’s 12 targets last week, Dugger is going to have to get in on the action with some tackles. Further, without ILB Bentley to man the run game, there should be more tackles to be had at the second level for this struggling Safety. He had 7 Tackles + Assists in both weeks to this point, with a missed tackle in each week as well. He’s getting the opportunities – and he should get even more with the Jets projected gameplan in this one.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
TNF Best Bets – NE Patriots vs NYJ
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 64.5 Rush Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Rush Over 15.5 Rush Yards (-102) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Breece Hall Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Breece Hall Over 4.5 Receptions (+104) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Kyle Dugger Over 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-105) 1.0u via NorthStar