Alright ladies and gents – this is the second part of our player prop picks for the NFL Week 3 Sunday slate. We’re going to follow-up by getting right into the picks – if you want to take a look at the intro and the picks in Part 1 (Our Top 10 player props) – you can find it all at the link below:
Now – we have three games left – and 9 player props locked in for these juicy, juicy matchups. So, without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
So, without further ado, let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Three: Sunday Best Bets
Game One: Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (Out)
- DET S Ifeatu Melifonwu (Out)
- DET OG Graham Glasgow (Questionable, LP, likely to play)
- DET CB Terrion Arnold (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- AZ OT Kelvin Beachum (Questionable, DNP Fri, unlikely to play)
We’ll start with the first of the three players we’re targeting in this matchup. I’m planting my flag on Gibbs having a good day – as his opportunity for production combined with the mismatch in AZ’s coverage unit makes this a very enticing smash-spot.
First of all – to absolutely no one’s surprise – according to PFF, DET has the biggest OLine advantage over the AZ DLine in both run blocking and pass blocking (+46% pass and +59% run). This solid OLine should absolutely dominate the Cardinals in all areas of the trenches, opening up running lanes and creating opportunities for both DET RB’s. The more explosive of the runners, Jahmyr Gibbs, should get to the second level of the defence at will – and although it may appear as though DET RB Montgomery is the leading rusher in this backfield, the rush attempts are almost at a dead-heat after Week 2 (Gibbs 24 rush attempts, Montgomery 28 rush attempts). If you give Gibbs 12 rushes against this Cardinals defence – he should pop-off with the huge disparity between the OLine/DLine and a Cardinals team ranked 18th on PFF in tackling. Feed this man.
When it comes to Gibbs in the receiving game to this point – it may seem underwhelming. For such a prolific pass-catching RB, 13 targets for 11 receptions and 56 receiving yards may seem disappointing through 2 games. However, I expect this game to stay competitive with the DET Secondary falling apart and Kyler making them pay (much like it was last game when DET trailed the Bucs the whole game). In that game, where DET was competitive with the Bucs, Gibbs had 32 snaps where he ran a receiving route and clocked in 7 receptions. While the Bucs have a pretty solid coverage defence, AZ does not (2nd worst in PFF coverage grade), and their biggest weakness in pass coverage is LB Kyzir White (27.9 PFF coverage grade (pee yew) with 8 catches allowed for 142 receiving yards). With at least a couple Gibbs routes coming against Kyzir – I’m betting he hits this Over.
Pick: David Montgomery Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.0 via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (Out)
- DET S Ifeatu Melifonwu (Out)
- DET OG Graham Glasgow (Questionable, LP, likely to play)
- DET CB Terrion Arnold (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- AZ OT Kelvin Beachum (Questionable, DNP Fri, unlikely to play)
Everything I said above – goes for Montgomery. This one-two punch has the best matchup this week when it comes to an advantage in the trenches, and Montgomery is an absolute workhorse when this team can get a good push at the line of scrimmage. While I expect this game to be competitive, I still expect a lot of ball control from Detroit, with a focus on the underneath game to stay away from the only spot AZ has talent on the defence (at Safety with Budda Baker). In a similar gamescript Week 1, with a similar situation where the LAR defensive front could get bullied by DET’s OLine, Monty went for 91 rush yards on 17 rush attempts. In Week 2 – the game script against the Bucs killed Monty, limiting him to 11 rush attempts. I expect more volume here with DET owning time of possession.
Pick: James Conner Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (Out)
- DET S Ifeatu Melifonwu (Out)
- DET OG Graham Glasgow (Questionable, LP, likely to play)
- DET CB Terrion Arnold (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- AZ OT Kelvin Beachum (Questionable, DNP Fri, unlikely to play)
Simple as this – while DET has faced limited run competition in LAR without an OLine in Week 1, and shitty TB RB Rachaad White in Week 2 – they still have the 3rd best PFF graded run defence. On top of that, they’re the #1 tackling team on PFF (77.5 grade). This team can stop the run in its tracks – and the pass rush is also very potent, ranking 1st on PFF.
I don’t expect this DET defence to hold those ranks through the season – the numbers are clearly inflated by competition. However, I could see them being Top 5 in those categories by seasons-end with the way they’ve been playing. The only weakness for this defence – the Secondary. At 19th on PFF in pass coverage grade, this defence struggles at Cornerback, with their two starters (Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold) both holding a sub-60 PFF coverage grade. Their Safeties have the best PFF grades of the bunch – but even those grades aren’t exceptional (the leader is starting Safety Kerby Joseph at 70.5 – pretty good, but not exceptional).
Although DET will shut down the run and bring pressure in the pass game (especially with starting OT Beachum Out for AZ) – they can’t cover worth a damn. And with AZ’s QB Kyler Murray continuously escaping the pocket and completing passes, I’m not expecting the Cards to lean on the run – especially when they’re getting worked on defence. Lock it in.
Game Two: San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams
Pick: Jauan Jennings Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365
Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SF TE George Kittle (Out)
- SF WR Deebo Samuel (Out)
- SF CB Charvarius Ward (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- SF DE Nick Bosa (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- LAR CB Kobie Durant (Questionable, LP Thurs, likely to play)
I have both these guys going over their totals – as the SF injuries have led us to two options in the pass game for the Niners. Yes – SF should have an easy time rushing on this Rams defence that got pushed around by the DET OLine and the questionable AZ OLine. However – it’s not like San Fran can’t also pass the ball on this porous defence.
We’ll start with the disadvantage for LAR in the trenches:
- SF pass blocking has a +15% advantage over LAR pass-rush; and
- SF run blocking has a +21% advantage over LAR rush defence.
It’s really a pick your poison in this one – but LA is so exploitable through the air that any pass play has the opportunity to go for 40+ yards. In Week 1, LAR gave up 121 receiving yards to DET WR Jameson Williams, with LAR CB Tre’Davious White getting a nice ol’ 45.8 PFF coverage grade. Yikes. Then, in Week 2 against the Cardinals, AZ WR Marvin Harrisson Jr. went for 130 receiving yards and each & every Rams CB had a PFF coverage grade below 56. Wowza, that’s bad. Now – the best PFF rated CB of the bunch (CB Cobie Durant) is banged up going into the game.
While the game script might seem to play a negative factor here – I wouldn’t be so sure, with starting SF Charvarius Ward likely limited (76.7 PFF coverage grade this year – pretty good) and the Rams replenishing their hurting OLine with 2023 Starting LT Alaric Jackson back in the fold after his 2 game PED suspension (oh wow, two games, definitely not going to do that again – sonkkkkkk). The Rams are lacking offensive weapons – but as the OLine goes, Stafford goes, and this could be a closer game than many expect.
Game Three: Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 73.5 Rush Yards (+103) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- N/A
A key to this pick: PFF also has this rated as one of the biggest mismatches between OLines vs DLines, giving the ATL OLine a 34% rushing edge against this “elite” KC defensive front. I wouldn’t have initially guessed that this would be such a big mismatch – but as we get into the data, it starts to make sense.
The ATL Falcons OLine and run blocking go together like Matthew McConaughey and beautiful women – they just seem to coexist at all times. The ATL pass blocking has been a struggle this year (56.0 PFF team grade, 27th in the NFL), but the run blocking ranks as 7th best on PFF. While the run blocking was better against the Eagles rough defensive front in Week Two when compared to the stellar Steelers defence front ATL faced in Week One – they still performed well in both games, where the clear weak links are both on the left side in OG Bergeron and OT Matthews (both with sub 60 PFF run block grades). The OLine is obviously aided by the excellence at RB with Bijan Robinson carrying the 4th best PFF rushing grade among RB’s. It makes sense that ATL is relying on the run game with Bijan getting 32 carries over the first 2 weeks – and he cleared this line with ease against Philly with 97 rushing yards. In fact, he almost cleared this line against PIT with 68 yards against the 7th best rush defence according to PFF. Now who does Bijan get as a matchup? The T-16th rush defence on PFF, KC.
The two matchups for KC to this point: Baltimore and Cincinnati. How do both these teams rank on PFF when it comes to run blocking? 23rd and 19th respectively. It’s clear KC has not seen a 5-man front built like this ATL OLine, and the RB’s they faced were nowhere near the skill level of Bijan (sorry Derrick Henry, things just aren’t the same at this point). In addition to that – gamescript doesn’t mean as much to me in this situation, as Bijan is really efficient and it’s clear this team is still committed to running the ball 15+ times a game, even if they’re behind (as they were in the Steelers game).
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (+103) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- N/A
We are doubling up on this matchup with a projected resurgence of the less-popular Kelce. While Kelce has failed to produce through the first two games of the season (7 targets, 4 receptions, 39 receiving yards), he’s had some tough coverage matchups with BAL studs Roquan Smith/Kyle Hamilton keying in on him Week One, and underrated coverage CIN LB Logan Wilson (81.9 PFF coverage grade) combining on double teams to shut him down in Week 2. The encouraging part – Kelce’s workload actually increased from Week 1 to Week 2, where he logged 59 offensive snaps vs 48 offensive snaps. He’s also ran 48 routes to this point of the season – so it’s not like he’s getting limited opportunities. I believe it comes down more to the defensive matchup – and boy does he have a juicy one here with ATL.
The first point – ATL’s pass rush holds a -20% disadvantage to KC’s pass blocking, so Patty Mahomes will have time to deliver the ball. On top of that, the Chiefs lost Isaih Pacheco, leading to a reliance on lesser RB’s in a muddled committee of Rookie FB Carson Steele, recently signed FA Kareem Hunt (doubles as an emergency Punter), and ol’ reliable Samaje Perine. Something tells me the Chiefs are going to rely on the pass to a greater extent, which leads us to Kelce’s individual matchup. If ATL decides to stick Safeties Jessie Bates or Justin Simmons on him (they both have ~65 PFF coverage grades, just average to this point in the season), Kelce will be able to use his much bigger frame to bring in catches inside. If ATL goes in the direction I think they will, with a bigger body to cover Kelce – it’ll end up being LB Kaden Ellis – who has the worst PFF coverage grade on ATL with 56.9. I mean, c’mon, PHI TE Dallas Goedert almost had 40 receiving yards last week against this team, with PIT TE Freiermuth as the Steelers 2nd leading receiver in Week One in a pass-deficient offence. The chance is there for Kelce to break out of the slump – he should take it.
Pick: Xavier Worthy Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (+101) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Oh Shit – we are TRIPLING up in this matchup. It just needs to be done with the projected mismatches in the matchups. I did mention the ATL pass-rush disadvantage vs the KC pass blocking – well that can only help the speedy Worthy, who could realistically smash this line in one play with his explosive play ability. While Worthy had a downtick in projection last week while getting owned by Cam Taylor-Britt:
– that can happen with a Rookie WR going against the 5th best pass coverage defence in the NFL according to PFF. We saw what Worthy could do against a bad Baltimore Secondary (24th in PFF coverage grade) with his 47 receiving yards, 1 TD performance. While the targets are still lacking to an extent (only 7 targets through the first two weeks), it’s encouraging to see that he’s getting out there a lot, with a 34 snap (63%) to 44 snap (68%) increase from Week 1 to Week 2.
Now – let’s take into account the ATL secondary. A secondary that got burnt in Week 1 by George Pickens for 80+ on a team that despised throwing the football in the Steelers. Week 2? Philly (without AJ Brown) has Devonta Smith go for 75+. The PFF coverage grade for ATL? Pretty good as a team at 11th in the NFL. The PFF coverage grades for their Corners? Subpar, with starter Dee Alford at 59.0, starter AJ Terrell at 62.7, and slot CB Mike Hughes leading the bunch with an average 67.1. These are the guys set to stop a KC passing attack that may have struggled in Week 2, but is set for a much better matchup here. Lock it in.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Three: Sunday Best Bets – Afternoon Slate
Game One: Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: David Montgomery Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.0 via NorthStar
Pick: James Conner Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Game Two: San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams
Pick: Jauan Jennings Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365
Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Sports Interaction
Game Three: Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 73.5 Rush Yards (+103) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (+103) 1.0u via Coolbet
Pick: Xavier Worthy Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (+101) 1.0u via Pinnacle