Another great NFL Sunday in the books – with some more shocking results to remind us that NFL Football is a ridiculously volatile sport. I mean, c’mon. The Texans looked like a Bottom 10 team for the first time in a while, I’m convinced CHI will never have a competent offence, and MIA HC Mike McDaniels has lost the glass slipper and turned into a pumpkin without his dear sweet Tua Tagovailoa running the offence. We’ll do a full recap on all bets for the weekend after the MNF games go through tonight – but if my calculations are correct, we’re going into tonight at about -1 unit – so it’s a make-or-break for us on Week 3 MNF.
With that considered – we really put in the work with analysis for these two games. With the confidence we’re feeling tonight – all plays are being increased from the standard 1 unit (whatever your betting unit may be) to 2 units. I don’t see this as “tilting” because we’ve been in a little slump – I see it as us trusting our system with a lot of knowledge gained through the first three weeks of the season. 6 players props total – 3 in each game – all Overs – what’s not to love? The thing is – this week we’re only going through 5 player props in the article, as we collaborated on X with another solid sports handicapper to put out our combined favourite play of the night. Check the tweet below to see our first play of the night and to give another great capper some love – then scroll down for full analysis on the other 5 best bets for the night.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Three: MNF Best Bets
MNF Game One: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Travis Etienne Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-107) 2.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- BUF LB Terrel Bernard (Out)
- BUF CB Taron Johnson (Out)
- BUF LB Matt Milano (IR)
- JAX RB Tank Bigsby (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- JAX TE Evan Engram (Out)
- JAX S Darnell Savage (Out)
The only way I see this Jacksonville offence having any semblance of success against this Bills defence – running the ball. Let me explain why.
First off – Jacksonville has one of the worst pass blocking OLine units in the NFL (24th PFF graded pass block). Now take into consideration the competition JAX has faced on the defensive side of the football to this point. In Week 1, it was the Miami Dolphins pass-rush, which is a decent unit (15th PFF graded pass-rush), but nothing to write home about. In Week 2, JAX played the Cleveland Browns, who, granted, have one of the best pass-rushes in the League (2nd PFF graded pass-rush) – but everything looked off. The Tackle spot is a big problem, where RT Anton Harrisson has been one of the worst pass-blockers in the League (3rd last among qualified Tackles in PFF pass block grading – fuck that’s bad). Now – they go up against a Bills pass rush that ranks 5th in PFF grading. It’s not like the Bills have had cupcake OLine pass-blocking matchups to this point either: Arizona (Week 1 opponent) is graded as a Top 10 pass-blocking unit, and the two weeks that Miami (Week 2 opponent) hasn’t played the Bills, they’ve had 75+ PFF grading in pass-blocking. That’s pretty elite competition – and still, the Bills defence got through for pressure. I don’t think they’ll have any trouble going up against the Jags OLine on passing downs.
So how will the Jags move the ball? Well, the run game hasn’t looked amazing to this point – but I believe they’ll have a chance to utilize it after the meat-grinder of matchups they’ve gone through the first two weeks. Let’s look into that.
The Jags first two opponents – the Dolphins and the Browns – have Top 10 rush defences according to PFF grading. This has led to a largely dismal JAX run blocking grade of 51.3 (29th in NFL). However – this Bills rush defence is not a Top 10 unit like MIA and CLE were. The Bills two opponents to start the season, AZ and MIA, both had good run blocking days against Buffalo. AZ graded at 70.8 (they’re best mark of the season by quite a bit) and MIA graded at 68.9 (with LT Terron Armstead banged up through the game). Buffalo is Bottom 10 in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game, and they just let MIA lead-back De’Von Achane go for over 100 rush yards on the ground. The Bills, graded at 20th in PFF rush defence, are a far cry from the Top 10 units Etienne has faced to this point in time.
Further – Etienne has still been solid despite the solid competition. Almost 4 yards a carry and 12.5 rushes per game – decent. If we project that to tonight (even as a bare minimum considering this is an easier matchup) – he ends up with 50 rush yards. That’s an Over – and I expect him to do even better.
Pick: Khalil Shakir Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- BUF LB Terrel Bernard (Out)
- BUF CB Taron Johnson (Out)
- BUF LB Matt Milano (IR)
- JAX RB Tank Bigsby (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- JAX TE Evan Engram (Out)
- JAX S Darnell Savage (Out)
Why does Shakir eat tonight? There’s a couple reasons – but let’s focus first on the Bills OLine. While the Bills OLine appears to be very effective when it comes to pass blocking (5th in PFF grading) – things might not look as good if they faced better pass-rushes. Their Week 2 opponent, MIA, has a pass-rush that’s middle of the pack in PFF grading and has faced some subpar pass blocking OLines (JAX and SEA). The Week 1 opponent, AZ, has one of the worst graded pass-rushes in the League. All of the sudden – this Bills pass-blocking excellence might appear to be a little inflated.
Then, we look to the Jaguars’ pass-rush. Actually pretty decent, graded as the 18th best unit in the NFL. However – they went up against a very solid MIA pass blocking unit in Week 1, and had a 70+ PFF graded pass-rush against the porous CLE pass-blocking OLine in Week 2. Call me crazy – but I think the Jags will be able to get enough push in the trenches to force the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands early.
What does that mean? Well, usually, it means the ball is going to slot WR Khalil Shakir. He has the 2nd lowest average-depth-of-target (ADOT) for Bills WR’s (Curtis Samuel ranks above him slightly, but is much less involved in the offence). This means that if there is pressure, he’s usually the first read. Further, this Bills offence is relying more and more on the short passing game to make solid gains on offence, where QB Josh Allen’s ADOT is lower than it’s ever been in his career. On top of all that – there is a serious mismatch in the slot that Shakir can expose vs this Jags defence.
The Jags LB’s are actually elite in coverage (both 80+ coverage grades) – which makes me want to stay away from Kincaid in this one. On the other hand, their slot CB Jarrian Jones has a very subpar coverage grade (53.0), and WR’s that’ve lined up in the slot against the Jags to this point have absolutely torched them. In Week 1, Tyreek Hill led MIA in slot snaps and put up 130 yards receiving. In Week 2, the two Browns WRs with the majority of slot snaps had the majority of the team’s receiving yards in the game (CLE slot WR’s combined for 117 out of 186 total receiving yards). With all of that considered – it’s pretty easy for me to envision the Bills pass-catcher with the most snaps from the slot having a huge game in this spot (that’s Shakir with 30 snaps from the slot). Lock it in.
Pick: James Cook Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- BUF LB Terrel Bernard (Out)
- BUF CB Taron Johnson (Out)
- BUF LB Matt Milano (IR)
- JAX RB Tank Bigsby (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- JAX TE Evan Engram (Out)
- JAX S Darnell Savage (Out)
The same points above – also apply to the Cookie Monster. The only fear for this pick might be the Jags stud LB coverage duo that I talked about above. The thing is – if a team utilizes their RB in the pass-game, they should have success against the Jags. Look no further than De’Von Achane’s 70+ receiving yard game in Week 1 for proof of that.
Yes – Achane was gamescripted into that role with the Jags trying to stop explosive plays to Hill and Waddle – but won’t they be trying to do the same thing against the Bills? Plus, the Jags LB’s aren’t exclusively covering the RB’s based on the past two games, as the Saferies and slot Corners also get in on the action – where the Jags have pretty subpar pass coverage grades. That should mean more eating for my boy James Cook, who’s put up 49 receiving yards on 23 receiving routes to this point in the season. Book it.
MNF Game Two: Washington Commanders vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 2.0u via Bet365
See analysis above.
Pick: Brian Robinson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CIN S Vonn Bell (Questionable, DNP Thurs and Fri, unlikely to play)
- CIN DT BJ Hill (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- CIN DT Sheldon Rankins (Out)
- WSH DE Clelin Ferrell (Out)
- WSH CB Emmanuel Forbes (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
Holy cow – you see those key injuries to the CIN interior of the DLine? While those two DT’s aren’t studs by PFF metrics when it comes to rush defence – they are starting DT’s for this already weak CIN rush defence. Let’s get further into the numbers to show how bad this unit really is.
To this point, CIN has faced NE (Week 1) and KC (Week 2). In both games, the opposing teams rushed for over 100 yards as a team, and had their leading rusher go over 80 rush yards. This was against a bad run blocking OLine in NE (27th in PFF grading) and an average KC run blocking OLine (other than the CIN game, they have a 64 run block grade, and a 51 run block grade). The tackling by this CIN defence is extremely subpar, with CIN racking up the worst PFF tackling grade in the NFL in Week 1 vs Rhamondre and the NE rush attack (you know, the one that just got shut down by an average run defence in the NYJ). Now – they go against a Washington OLine who has run-blocking PFF grading on par with KC, and RB Brian Robinson, who had 133 rush yards against the Giants last week (Giants rush defence just had a 79.8 grade against CLE in Week 3, one of the best marks of the week).
WSH should struggle with moving the ball through the air, as the scheme under OC Kliff Kingsbury calls for a lot of underneath passes mixed with runs – and we have to consider that if this CIN defence has any strength, it’s their coverage unit with the 3rd best pass coverage PFF grade in the NFL (after going up against Mahomes nonetheless). Run, run, and run the ball some more WSH – and this game may be closer than a lot of people think.
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CIN S Vonn Bell (Questionable, DNP Thurs and Fri, unlikely to play)
- CIN DT BJ Hill (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- CIN DT Sheldon Rankins (Out)
- WSH DE Clelin Ferrell (Out)
- WSH CB Emmanuel Forbes (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
Again – the points above apply to Daniels as well. The guy has been an amazing scrambler to this point in the season (132 rush yards on 25 rush attempts) – and props to him, his athleticism is impressive. However, with the way this offence operates, and the exceptional pass coverage of CIN, do you expect Daniels to stick around in the pocket and try to play “Field General” out there? Especially when the Bengals interior DLine is in shambles, possibly giving Daniels’ open lanes to run up the middle on scrambles? Let’s get real – Daniels will be running like a chicken with his head cut off. And I, for one, support this gameplan (as long as the he avoids big hits for crying out loud).
Take into account that Patrick Mahomes just ran for 29 yards on 4 rush attempts against the Bengals last week – and Mahomes really only uses his scrambling as a last resort. With Daniels and his 25 rush attempts in the last 2 weeks – if he has a similar yards/rush average to Mahomes, he will reach the 100 yard rushing mark. While I don’t expect that kind of efficiency – I do expect him to clear this line.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Three: MNF Best Bets
MNF Game One: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Travis Etienne Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-107) 2.0u via Betano
Pick: Khalil Shakir Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
Pick: James Cook Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
MNF Game Two: Washington Commanders vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 2.0u via Bet365
Pick: Brian Robinson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 2.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 2.0u via NorthStar